Mystic Forge Precursor crafting limit? 2k gold lost

Ok so I entertained the idea of making gold with crafting precursors a while back. I did a lot of spreadsheeting to come up with a pretty efficient way of crafting the necessary weapons. Like really efficient. Over the past week I think I've crafted around 7 Dusks/Dawns and made a lot of people happy with some instant sells and saved them a hundred gold or so I guess. I went all the way up to 2700g from like 300 in like a day or so. https://imgur.com/a/VyKfFNg

Admittedly, I got a little greedy (moderation is for cowards right) and then spent some gold helping out a guy craft Chuka and Champawat by sending him gemstones and other things since he actually took some of my advice when he asked how I crafted mine. So I decided to plunge way down the rabbit hole and invest more and see if I could exponentially grow with that gold. I'm now at 98g.

I've crafted well over 1000 exotic greatswords and wasted a looot of karma crafting rares. I've lost 2k gold and ZERO precursors have came my way. With the worst odds possible I should have at least gotten one from that so there has to be a limit to how many you can craft is there not?

I understand it's always a gamble but I have been trying to get back up to at least 1/3rd of where I was at and cut my losses but wtf... Heavily discouraged at this point.. If such a lockout exists I wish it was made more known to players before they invest so much into something that scale

I've dumped nonstop rares/exotics in the forge as an experiment for 4 months and got zero precursors. At that point I decided never again and only forged exotics from dungeon tokens I wanted to turn into gold. Made my first precursor after 7+ years of playing the game (dawn and I started at release) about 2 months ago.

I've had friends that have gotten over 20+ precursors not even 4 years into the game since release. It's all random and I believe your odds of getting a precursor or not are tied to your account. Some people have amazing luck others, like myself have horrible. I'm sure there are players who've also played since release and have NEVER got one.

At this point in the game it was less about getting a precursor out of need or want, but more about wanting to have that magical moment of finally getting something valuable and rare. 99.9999% of the rewards in this game regardless of how difficult and challenging the content is only offer you garbage blues and greens with some random magi/soldier square stone you can't even post on the trading post cause it's worthless.

I've gone off topic but this whole precursor situation has always bothered me, seeing everyone around me get many of them for years. I've always had amazing drops and luck in any game I played that wasn't where I spent most of my interest or time, but when it came to GW2 I feel like my accounts are cursed.

TLDR: "I know it's RNG, but I didn't get what I wanted so it can't possibly be RNG"

@"Milo.3840" said:Ok so I entertained the idea of making gold with crafting precursors a while back. I did a lot of spreadsheeting to come up with a pretty efficient way of crafting the necessary weapons. Like really efficient. Over the past week I think I've crafted around 7 Dusks/Dawns and made a lot of people happy with some instant sells and saved them a hundred gold or so I guess.

It is 80g/70g depending on weapon but also more expensive than craftingYou made a spreadsheet for the rares but did you make one to account for the drop rate?

Admittedly, I got a little greedy (moderation is for cowards right) and then spent some gold helping out a guy craft Chuka and Champawat by sending him gemstones and other things since he actually took some of my advice when he asked how I crafted mine. So I decided to plunge way down the rabbit hole and invest more and see if I could exponentially grow with that gold. I'm now at 98g.

I've crafted well over 1000 exotic greatswords and wasted a looot of karma crafting rares. I've lost 2k gold and ZERO precursors have came my way. With the worst odds possible I should have at least gotten one from that so there has to be a limit to how many you can craft is there not?

I understand it's always a gamble but I have been trying to get back up to at least 1/3rd of where I was at and cut my losses but kitten... Heavily discouraged at this point.. If such a lockout exists I wish it was made more known to players before they invest so much into something that scale

It probably would have been a good idea to check other research on this before hand.https://gw2.silveress.ie/precursors is probably one of the best documented and up to date and as seen there with the data available it has gone as high as 457 forges with no precursors and that is using exotics which should have 4 times higher proc rate than exotics. That is 1,371 exotics which would translate to 5,484 rares