How Fair / Unfair is the Mytic Forge when it comes to precursors? — Guild Wars 2 Forums
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How Fair / Unfair is the Mytic Forge when it comes to precursors?

So I am a relatively new player - I started my quest in Tyria about 14 months ago, so I am still a noob (compared to the guys that have been around since the start of Guild Wars 1) My question is this: How much gold does one need to spend to earn at least one precursor from the Mystic Toilet? I have been tossing in rare and exotic Greatswords like tomorrow is not coming, and all I seem to be getting back is more useless kitten I could have crafted myself. A fellow Guildie of mine ( let's call him Mister X) has only been playing for about 4 months, yet in the past 2 months this dude has had the pleasure of SEVEN precursors, including a Dawn and a Legend. The Legend alone is worth more than 400g. So please can someone explain to me, how 2 people that make use of the Forge every single day, spending hard earned gold through farming and crafting (because not everybody has the luxury of visiting the Gem Store every other day) and yet only person seems to be reaping the rewards of Zomorros' impressive arsenal of goodies. I can't help but feel cheated. Either Arena Net hates me or I have the worst luck in the world

Comments

  • Yeah, waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many sides in my opinion. I think the devs should think about spreading these yummy rewards a little bit more evenly between players, especially if they spend between 5 - 8 hours per day playing their game

  • Thanx for all the input. I'm just gonna start crafting my own stuff. I have all the crafting professions at top level (expect scribing) no more Mystic Toilet for me. Have fun everybody and may the Six watch over you :)

  • Danikat.8537Danikat.8537 Member ✭✭✭✭

    If you put in 4 level 80 exotic weapons the chance of getting a precursor back is estimated to be 1.79%. If you use rare weapons or anything below level 80 the chance is lower. There are no modifiers on that - there's nothing to say newer or older accounts should have better luck or after X attempts your chances go up, every single time any player does it the chance is the same. Therefore there will be standard deviations between players - some will be extremely lucky, some will be extremely unlucky and most will fall somewhere in between (but often remember streaks of good or bad luck more than their actual total or overall average). None of that is a bug, it's just how probability works.

    Throwing rares or exotics into the Forge hoping for a precusor is not a reliable way to get one, or a good way of making gold. There is a chance you'll make a profit, but there's a higher chance you'll lose gold overall and an additional chance (which does vary between players) that if you do make a profit you'll decide you're on a lucky streak "reinvest" it all in more weapons to throw in the Forge and end up with nothing and a nagging desire to keep going until you at least get back what you once had even if you ultimately lose even more gold in the process.

    If you want a precusor the best way to get it is to either craft it or buy it from the Trading Post. Buying it can sometimes be cheaper but you'll need to check the cost of crafting the one you want because prices change all the time, there are websites that can help with this. Crafting is the most reliable way to get one and even when it's more expensive some players prefer it because it spreads the cost out and it can feel more like you're earning it yourself.

    If you want lots of gold then you need to research profitable farms. Two things to bear in mind are that this isn't the kind of game where you can pick an item or a few items and farm those indefinitely to make gold, prices and demand shifts all the time so you'll need to change what you're farming to keep making a profit.

    Danielle Aurorel, Desolation EU. Mini Collector

    "You can run like a river, Till you end up in the sea
    And you run till night is black, And keep on going in your dreams
    And you know all the long while, It's the journey that you seek
    It's the miles of moving forward, With the wind beneath your wings"

  • Hyrai.8720Hyrai.8720 Member ✭✭✭

    @ekisJohann.1508 said:
    Yeah, waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many sides in my opinion. I think the devs should think about spreading these yummy rewards a little bit more evenly between players, especially if they spend between 5 - 8 hours per day playing their game

    the only thing that makes precursors "yummy" and valuable is their rarity. if they were more common, they would be.. well.. common. there wouldnt be anything special about them, and you probably wouldnt even bother throwing your rare and exotics into the toilet anymore.

    the devs already took a step towards players like you by introducing precursor collections which remove the rng part entirely. so you might think about doing those instead of gambling.

  • Infusion.7149Infusion.7149 Member ✭✭✭✭

    Probability isn't on your side, don't gamble.

    For the amount of rares/exotics you throw in the mystic forge statistically speaking it's cheaper to buy most precursors.

  • Trise.2865Trise.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭

    It is truly random and therefore inherently "fair".
    Things it is not: "cost effective", "likely or probable", "particularly fun to farm for (if that's all you're doing)".

    If we want ANet to step up their game, then we must step up ours.

  • On that note, I once got the exact identical item in a row out of the mystic forge. 2x Exotic, lvl 78, Orian axe. How are those odds? All my luck has been used up now :D

  • Randulf.7614Randulf.7614 Member ✭✭✭✭

    Out of curiosity, how do you know your guildie has had 7 precursors from the forge?

    What sleep is here? What dreams there are in the unctuous coiling of the snakes mortal shuffling. weapon in my hand. My hand the arcing deathblow at the end of all things. The horror. The horror. I embrace it. . .

  • TwoGhosts.6790TwoGhosts.6790 Member ✭✭✭
    edited July 29, 2020

    Not sure what your situation is, but if you're working and can afford it a single precursor off the TP is just a coupla hours work, gems to gold. By far the most efficient use of your time probably.

    Of course, crafting your own can be a satisfying journey in itself for some people, but it's quite long and often more expensive.

  • @Randulf.7614 said:
    Out of curiosity, how do you know your guildie has had 7 precursors from the forge?

    Well Randulf I know this because he is on my friends list, we were in the same Guild for a while. He links them in the chat, and he proved this to me by sending me the Chaos precursor (item is worth 73 gold). He is a very trust worthy guy, and I believe him.

  • @TwoGhosts.6790 said:
    Not sure what your situation is, but if you're working and can afford it a single precursor off the TP is just a coupla hours work, gems to gold. By far the most efficient use of your time probably.

    Of course, crafting your own can be a satisfying journey in itself for some people, but it's quite long and often more expensive.

    I am unemployed thanks to Corona :(

  • TwoGhosts.6790TwoGhosts.6790 Member ✭✭✭

    @ekisJohann.1508 said:

    @TwoGhosts.6790 said:
    Not sure what your situation is, but if you're working and can afford it a single precursor off the TP is just a coupla hours work, gems to gold. By far the most efficient use of your time probably.

    Of course, crafting your own can be a satisfying journey in itself for some people, but it's quite long and often more expensive.

    I am unemployed thanks to Corona :(

    Awww kitten, that sucks man, sorry to hear.

  • DeanBB.4268DeanBB.4268 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I'm one of those who has played GW2 since the early GW1 days. No precursors from the Forge, but the shield did drop from me from a low-level chest in (I believe) Caledon Forest. I just save up eligible rare weapon drops until I get 4 of a kind, or use 4 randoms of ones I don't care about, and toss those in the Forge.

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  • keenedge.9675keenedge.9675 Member ✭✭✭

    @ekisJohann.1508 said:

    @Randulf.7614 said:
    Out of curiosity, how do you know your guildie has had 7 precursors from the forge?

    Well Randulf I know this because he is on my friends list, we were in the same Guild for a while. He links them in the chat, and he proved this to me by sending me the Chaos precursor (item is worth 73 gold). He is a very trust worthy guy, and I believe him.

    I had a guildie in an old guild, linking winning hands in Sandstorm, every day. Doesn't make it true.

    You can paste anything into chat and post it.

    Moral Statute Machine: John Spartan, you are fined five credits for repeated violations of the verbal morality statute.

  • Yggranya.5201Yggranya.5201 Member ✭✭✭

    It's simple. If you get lucky, then it's completely fair and working as intended. If you get unlucky, then it's the worst thing in the world and should be reworked. In reality, it's random. The end.

  • @keenedge.9675 said:

    I had a guildie in an old guild, linking winning hands in Sandstorm, every day. Doesn't make it true.

    You can paste anything into chat and post it.

    Keen I understand your point of view, but not everyone is a scammer and a liar. I believe my friend .

  • Friday.7864Friday.7864 Member ✭✭✭

    GW2 RNG treats me like absolute trash no matter what. I learned to expect nothing from it and to avoid it.
    Your mileage may vary.

  • Dawdler.8521Dawdler.8521 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 3, 2020

    @keenedge.9675 said:

    @ekisJohann.1508 said:

    @Randulf.7614 said:
    Out of curiosity, how do you know your guildie has had 7 precursors from the forge?

    Well Randulf I know this because he is on my friends list, we were in the same Guild for a while. He links them in the chat, and he proved this to me by sending me the Chaos precursor (item is worth 73 gold). He is a very trust worthy guy, and I believe him.

    I had a guildie in an old guild, linking winning hands in Sandstorm, every day. Doesn't make it true.

    You can paste anything into chat and post it.

    Well, sometimes you also just know. Had a guildie a long time ago that pulled precursors out of the forge every other week, lol. All she did was toss in stuff.

    Personally I dumped 10 ascalonian greatswords into the forge on wednesday I believe it was, to try and get a little more gold to fund BL keys for the wings.

    Got Dusk.

    And after some 75 keys I gave up getting the wings btw, because I got the stupid raptor and the stupid flame cloak and said kitten it I aint gambling anymore.

    Then I dumped some 15ish assorted dungeon swords friday I think, as I noticed I had tokens for them left.

    Got Dusk.

    RNG is RNG.

    Dont look a gift Asura in the mouth.
    No seriously, dont. Shark teeth.

  • I would KILL for just one precursor, even if it was just a stupid underwater trident or something. Getting a Dusk seems like something that will only happen in my dreams. Lol Lol Lol. Thanx to everyone who is taking the time to read my post and to everyone who is replying. Btw, I did drop in some greatswords earlier - again only KITTEN. Lol

  • quaniesan.8497quaniesan.8497 Member ✭✭
    edited August 3, 2020

    Played this game since day 1 here. Not a single precursor dropped. My one and only precursor-level drop is one day some random guy sent me 400g for no reason.

  • Zeivu.3615Zeivu.3615 Member ✭✭✭

    @quaniesan.8497 said:
    Played this game since day 1 here. Not a single precursor dropped. My one and only precursor-level drop is one day some random guy sent me 400g for no reason.

    Same here, except I have not had the fortune of randomly receiving anything, let alone a few coin.

  • Ashen.2907Ashen.2907 Member ✭✭✭✭

    The MF is fair in the sense that every player has the same chance of getting good returns from it.

  • Danikat.8537Danikat.8537 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @ekisJohann.1508 said:
    I would KILL for just one precursor, even if it was just a stupid underwater trident or something. Getting a Dusk seems like something that will only happen in my dreams. Lol Lol Lol. Thanx to everyone who is taking the time to read my post and to everyone who is replying. Btw, I did drop in some greatswords earlier - again only KITTEN. Lol

    Why do you want a precursor?

    If you want one so you can make a legendary weapon you're better off crafting one or buying it from the Trading Post than throwing away gold and items gambling on it.

    If you want the excitement of getting a valuable drop then you're better off trying for something where you're not losing gold trying for it, because at the moment it's likely that if/when you get a precursor you'll actually have lost more gold than you'll get from selling it. If you've got PoF you could join the people farming the choya pinata event, which is a quick one to do and easy to find. Or pick some other meta events or world bosses with rare drops and play those when you can. If you do get a valuable rare drop then great, you've got your wish. If not then at least you'll get some stuff you can use to make gold instead of losing what you've already got throwing it into the Forge.

    Throwing rares and exotics into the Mystic Forge is only worth doing if you literally do not care about losing them. It's marginally better than deleting the 3 most valuable and only keeping the 4th to sell or salvage, because 99 times out of 100 that is exactly what you're doing - you put in 4 rares or exotics and get back 1 item equal to what you already had. Occasionally you get lucky but overall it's a loss.

    Danielle Aurorel, Desolation EU. Mini Collector

    "You can run like a river, Till you end up in the sea
    And you run till night is black, And keep on going in your dreams
    And you know all the long while, It's the journey that you seek
    It's the miles of moving forward, With the wind beneath your wings"

  • I played 6 years before my first precursor. I made a try for my birthday and got one.

  • Turkeyspit.3965Turkeyspit.3965 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 4, 2020

    Fair? It is gambling, and like all gambling, the house is favored to win. Or more accurately in this case, the Mystic Forge acts as a gold/ material sink, meaning it removes more resources from the game than it adds. Sure, someone might get a precursor worth 600 gold out of 4 exotic weapons, but at the same time, 1000's of gold worth of exotics just disappear into the pool from other players.

    Think what you will about gambling, but as a gold/material sink, the mystic forge is quite the clever idea. (and same holds true with Ecto gambling as well).

    Inflation in GW2 exists, but nothing like what you see on the scale of a game like WoW.

  • Daddicus.6128Daddicus.6128 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I never received a precursor from any source. I've been playing since before launch, with only about 40 days off. Averaging 4+ hours a day throughout that time.

    Yeah, the RNG sucks. For a dying game, they really should rethink some of the absurdly hard things to get to spice up playing again.

  • I got 0 ever, my brother got like 4. It is what it is. I kinda gave up after so 1xxx tries.

    Precursors arent THAT expensive anyway

  • Tumult.2578Tumult.2578 Member ✭✭

    Fair is not the right question. It's totally unfair and should be. How many exotics are you putting in the forge each day? 20? 40? It doesn't happen that way. Precursors should never be a goal. They are a rare occurance. Even getting a precursor is so far away from actually crafting a legendary that many just sell the precursor. There are plenty of sinks and roadblocks in the crafting, after obtaining the Pecursor. If a Precursor is that important, earn the gold and buy one. Then see if you want to make it a Legendary.
    Having said that, some of us are just lucky. Two years in I hit the Predator and it gave me the Precursor fever. Four years later, I finally realized I was never going to get just one of each kind and decided to sell those exotics and just buy the Precursor.
    If the Precursor is that important, as it was to me, just buy it. You will learn the process and not waste a ton of time and money and effort feeding the Fickle Forge.

  • Khisanth.2948Khisanth.2948 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Turkeyspit.3965 said:
    Inflation in GW2 exists, but nothing like what you see on the scale of a game like WoW.

    That probably has more to do with the gold <-> gem exchange

  • Turkeyspit.3965Turkeyspit.3965 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Khisanth.2948 said:

    @Turkeyspit.3965 said:
    Inflation in GW2 exists, but nothing like what you see on the scale of a game like WoW.

    That probably has more to do with the gold <-> gem exchange

    Could be, though WoW has a similar system, where you buy 30 days of subscription time and can sell it for gold to other players . Yes, the TP barons in WoW don't even have to pay $15 a month to play - they just spend gold.

  • Khisanth.2948Khisanth.2948 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Turkeyspit.3965 said:

    @Khisanth.2948 said:

    @Turkeyspit.3965 said:
    Inflation in GW2 exists, but nothing like what you see on the scale of a game like WoW.

    That probably has more to do with the gold <-> gem exchange

    Could be, though WoW has a similar system, where you buy 30 days of subscription time and can sell it for gold to other players . Yes, the TP barons in WoW don't even have to pay $15 a month to play - they just spend gold.

    That is much less flexible. Once I buy the gems there are many things I could do with it. There is only one thing you can do with a 30 day subscription and isn't WoW's trading per server rather than global or has that changed at some point?

  • Kameko.8314Kameko.8314 Member ✭✭✭

    8 years. Not 1 from that kitten hole toilet. 2 drops from the world. kitten system imo. Go craft they say? Not when its more expensive to craft than buy (with all the extras in time and effort). But I have had my 50+ recycled legendaries. Had to work kitten hard for them. No presents here. Yes a bit bitter, but whatever haha