RNG and the Lottery

Over the years there has been rage over RNG, in a genre that almost exclusively depends on this mechanic.

First is was a few things... precursors, ascended, fossils, shoes... but now people are complaining about ANYTHING not dropping for them.

When collections came out, prices of named exos spiked, nobody complained. Now with PoF collections everyone complains. Why?

Now, I dont play the lotto, or gamble IRL but isnt the whole point about EXCITEMENT?

You dont go to the store and say "I have been playing lotto for 20 years and never won!!!! This is unacceptable! I demmand you give me a guaranteed win if I collect x many lotto tickets(map currency)!"

No. You dont.Why cant we just enjoy the spontaneuety of our drops and be happy when whe finally get it?

Besides, real talk here... I have been seeing many of you complaining about grind.

You realize less RNG=More Grind, right?

RNG ties into the feeling of GW2 not being rewarding. Not to say every loot bag should vomit exotics on every click, but there are certain conditions/criteria which make it acceptable or unacceptable to pull RNG shenanigans.

• If the chances are highly plentiful (trick or treat bags, unidentified gear), it's okay to have a lower loot chance.The furor over the collections might be a bit specific and probably due for a tweak, but on the surface, it's not an "evil" thing to do.For something like Mystic Clovers, it's utter gambling, and while one can pay for whatever chances they wish, it largely leads to a financial loss and most of the time doesn't support the actual goal of clicking repeatedly for the formula. File that under Not Cool.If the drop is tied to a boss that only shows up once every two or three hours, raise the loot chance! Someone shouldn't farm Teq/Ulgoth/etc every day for three months and still not get some awesome loot drop.

Side note: I've been selling most of my ToT bags for sweet sweet trading post cash, but I open a few here and there. Touch of Madness dropped last night. I didn't need it, obviously, but I wanted it, just not at 100g as a ticket price. I decided it was worth not getting 100g to keep it, though. :mrgreen:

• If the result is account bound, raise the loot chance!Being able to buy or sell on the market is fine, but if it's something that is for highly personal progress, it needs to be common enough that it can be reasonably attained. Obviously some modifier for the above (number of lots), but no one should have to deal with a 5% loot chance to get something that can't be applied to the market.

• Not enough booby prizes. (Iterative progress.)In the cases where RNG loot is its most frustrating, it's a super low drop chance with no sense of progress. Precursors used to be a big example. Again, I cite Mystic Clovers to a lesser degree.For the PoF elite weapon collections, there should be a reasonable chance to get an item that, in large enough quantities, can be traded for a specific reward. So while the rare loot drop is desirable, having a pity drop like [Fragment of Desert Armaments] provides some notion of progress. Turn 250 of them in to a vendor and spend a hefty number of trade contracts, and bam, get an account bound version of the item.Heck, same with M.Clovers. With every miserable loot failure, toss in a Mystic Leaf. Shove 4 Mystic Leafs into the Forge, and bam, Mystic Clover on a steady schedule, while RNG pleasantly accelerates progress.But what happens instead is we get blues and greens, which have very little value and give zero progress to some of our goals. That's why it feels so grindy.

(And for the sake of sanity, I'm not getting into the Black Lion chests right now...)

How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

How is buying lottery tickets that will never be won exciting?

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

It isnt?

Then again, the lottery doesnt have anything (dollars) that can only be earned via gambling...sure the quantity of dollars may be beyond the scope of most people's ability to earn otherwise, but we can earn dollars in any number of ways.

The blc lock rewardz, not quantity, behind gambling.

In order for the comparison between lottery and blc to be accurate we would have to be able to earn anything currently exclusive to blc without actually gambling, while the blc gated quantities rather than items. So, if you want the exclusive skin you can readily get it in game. If you want a million of that skin, buy a key and gamble.

I guess the real question is: Does Anet use proper random number generator hardware? Or rely only on software?Most people don't know that computers without some special hardware cannot actually produce RANDOM numbers at all. And even with the right hardware it is still problematic.See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

Excitement from playing a lottery would only happen if one happened to win. While people might want to win, anyone who has realistic expectations does not expect to win. Games, though, are played purely for enjoyment. People expect to be entertained, because that's why they shelled out money for the game in the first place. MMO's largely provide satisfaction via virtual rewards (either gewgaws or progression bits). Complaints about RNG are always going to be about dissatisfaction, which is going to be caused by the game failing to provide its primary purpose, to entertain.

As to grind, grind is a perceived phenomenon, which results from boredom at playing the same content (or maybe even the same sort of content) to the point where one is no longer entertained by doing so. Both serendipitous reward systems (RNG) and incremental reward systems (farm gold) can seem like grind. The worst grind I ever felt outside of leveling in an FTG (free-to-grind) game was trying to get a specific weapon drop from a specific boss in a specific dungeon in the big kahuna of MMO's. I never did get it, and of course that drop is now irrelevant.

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

I never once mentioned BLCI'm talking about RNG. For anything.

But since you mention it.Don't wanna get burned on BLC? Do not play.

@IndigoSundown.5419 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

Well I'm telling you, I would rather ring a drop with chance of never getting it by casually playing the game in any way.

Than perform d menial task c times to collect y token to get an account bound positively common skin.

There's a level of surprise that money can't buy.

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

You mentioned a gamble with comparison to the lotto. Lotto requires a monetary fee for a chance at a reward. The only thing in game remotely similar, that has that element in place, are the blc.

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

Wow ok. So you spent all that time fussing over analogy. Ok let me make it better just for You!

You are searching for treasure on your leisure time. You have a metal detector and dig holes, go spelunking, etc... every time you dig, you roll RNG.

So you are telling Me! That You! Prefer it if all your holes were pre filled with various grades of treasure and directions as to what you need to do for that treasure?

Cookie Tin: find 2000 seashellsAntique tinderbox: 6000 seashellsWW2 love letter (half torn): 9000 seashellsJewel encrusted spoon: 420000 seashells

Yes or no will suffice

Because that sure sounds like sucking the joy and soul out of a real treasure hunt.

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

I was merely explaining why I thought you might be referring to blc.

If I am actively searching for treasure I would much rather it not be based on purely random chance. I would do some research and search based on expectation of outcome. If that meant finding intermediary steps that led to the desired treasure, so be it.

I sure as heck wouldnt just go to some random patch of weeds and start digging.

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

Okay on first point. You are right in that thinking.

Second not so much. You did not answer my question. I only gave you TWO options. And by sheer coincidence they are the exact same as gw2!

Like I said yes or no.

@Deepcuts.9740 said:I guess the real question is: Does Anet use proper random number generator hardware? Or rely only on software?Most people don't know that computers without some special hardware cannot actually produce RANDOM numbers at all. And even with the right hardware it is still problematic.See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator

LOL. No, that's not the issue. The seed for the RNG is either selected by the developer (thus adding the randomness to the sequence), or more likely, is based on the current time/date code, which then of course is always changing. The point is, while these numbers are not truly "random" in the sense that we could pick a number at random, they are more than random enough for the purpose of an in-game lotto.

The real question here is whether the odds (chosen by Anet) are appropriate and reasonable.

It’s a rewards per unit of time, adjusted by difficulty issue. So if I have two bags with similar difficulty, but one takes 10 seconds to earn while the other takes 1 second to earn, I would expect the average bag value for the first to be 10 times that of the second.

This requires an objective measure of difficulty, which is hard to get. I suspect ArenaNet boosts rewards tied to content defied by gear checks, mandatory breakbars, and DPS checks. Legendaries are undervalued because you have no real limit on participants, but they still take forever.

Then you have value. Anything below yellow is garbage at level 80. Even yellow has value only insofar as you can salvage it or toss it in the mystic forge for another RNG shot, making orange the only thing that draws attention. Truthfully, orange is salvage/forge fodder for longtime and active players.

My suspicion is that the drop rates assume anything below green is garbage and green is a “win” which leaves players wondering why they bother. They could take lessons from Diablo III’s Loot 2.0.

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

You gave listed two options for a real situation which has many more options available. GW2 has a much more limited scope than does real life. This is why analogies of the sort you are using can be so ineffective.

I did answer your proposed scenario. Correctly, for me.

As to rewards in gw2, my experience (after playing daily for more than 5 years) is that the options are:

1) incremental where you buy what you want with currency (tokens, gold, etc).2) almost nothing.

Currently those are what I have seen.

Now, I am not at all opposed to a mix of rng drops and token based rewards. Ive enjoyed such in other games, including gw1. I just cant say that Ive noted such as existing to any significant degree here. Anything I have wanted must be purchased because experience says that no other option exists.

Bringing it back to your question, I suppose it should be rephrased as: would you rather the directions, etc, to the treasure or never get any treasure at all?

In answer to that I suppose I would say that I would rather get treasure for my effort than spend the effort and never see any treasure.

I believe the dissatisfaction that some people may express is due to an expectation that the amount of time and effort they invested would have achieved the desired results. (In general)

I also believe that RNG is there, in part, to slow down the gear progression to keep people playing longer. (Mmo specific)

Some people prefer grinding money to buy something knowing that it'll take a predictive amount of time (for example) where as others may prefer taking the chance of getting it sooner by grinding the mobs directly and except the risk that it may take longer (this relates to the first paragraph) but not too much longer.

Gambling, addiction, psychology, neuroscience, perception and understanding of chance, risk and reward, emotional responses to the afore mentioned, etc are all interesting subjects in there own right but well beyond the scope of this thread.

@"Omar Aschi Popp.7496" said:Over the years there has been rage over RNG, in a genre that almost exclusively depends on this mechanic.

First is was a few things... precursors, ascended, fossils, shoes... but now people are complaining about ANYTHING not dropping for them.

When collections came out, prices of named exos spiked, nobody complained. Now with PoF collections everyone complains. Why?

Now, I dont play the lotto, or gamble IRL but isnt the whole point about EXCITEMENT?

You dont go to the store and say "I have been playing lotto for 20 years and never won!!!! This is unacceptable! I demmand you give me a guaranteed win if I collect x many lotto tickets(map currency)!"

No. You dont.Why cant we just enjoy the spontaneuety of our drops and be happy when whe finally get it?

Besides, real talk here... I have been seeing many of you complaining about grind.

You realize less RNG=More Grind, right?

at first i was upset about the rng then the joy i felt in getting final rest from shadow behe made me jump out of my chair

People need to realise that "no good drops" is a requirement in a game where everyone tagging a mob gets a drop. There is just so much looting in this game, so nothing has value except the stuff which is extremely unlikely. What the game needs is more sinks to increase the value of items, you will notice when the game launched there were tons of mid range expensive items (like the items which mimic mesmer phantasm weapons) but they haven't put much stuff like that into the game for a long time.

PoF needs some mid range expensive sinks to make things valuable again, we cannot rely on Legendaries every few months alone.

@Deepcuts.9740 said:I guess the real question is: Does Anet use proper random number generator hardware? Or rely only on software?Most people don't know that computers without some special hardware cannot actually produce RANDOM numbers at all. And even with the right hardware it is still problematic.See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator

This is highly misleading. Human beings have no way to check the difference between 'true random' and current methods for simulating RNG. It's technically true that they aren't the same, but there's no measurable difference between them in gaming, spreadsheets, or virtually any use RNG software has. Whatever pros and cons there are to RNG loot, it has nothing to do with software.

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@IndigoSundown.5419 said:

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:

@Ashen.2907 said:How is never getting a drop worth using supposed to be "exciting?"

Which makes you someone who prefers serendipity. Doubtless there are a lot who do. Doubtless, also, a lot of others prefer incremental rewards. So, the game should have both. The complaints come when: someone who wants slow-and-steady wants an account bound drop with a low rate; when a drop fan's only real chance of getting the item is to collect currency; or when either are unhappy with the amount of time needed to get what they want.

Frankly, the original GW did it better, except for the "play anywhere" aspect of RNG for drops like precursors in GW2. Everything was a drop. Anything that dropped could be sold. Those who wanted to farm items could. Those who wanted to farm gold and buy the item could.

I never liked RNG in any game actually because I like to know my odds of winning and how I can manipulate it in my favor of winning. I would rather grind for something knowing I will get it eventually instead of relying on RNG to get it. RNG by its very nature is fickle, and I have never been excited by it. I only get excited when I know I can actually get and see the path to the item instead of hoping I get it.

@Omar Aschi Popp.7496 said:You realize less RNG=More Grind, right?

I disagree with the last statement. It's not necessarily true.Doing Teq everyday for a chance to get one weapon is grindy. Also if you're a completionnist it will require YEARS of doing it every day and not even being certain to get them all... since that's the only method.RNG can be very grindy too.

Also, there is an alternative way of either RNG or Grind: Difficulty.By making things more difficult, less people can farm them, and so the value of the rewards remain high.The choice that seems to be made sadly with games today is more grind and less challenge. It has to be counterbalanced with grind or rng.

I personally don't mind RNG if there's another way to get the item you want. Be it slow progression (precursor) or straight up TP.What is absolute kitten is items recoverable ONLY through RNG means.

I like only one chance, the 100%Chance!I don´t mind the time, I play to waste time anyway but I will not play for a chance that I might get what I want.

"Always make sure that the fight you´re getting into is already won"-unknown

I once red that in a book and I think it represents my thinking the best.