Mystic Coins pricetrends and PoF

As I assume many of you have noticed the prices of mystic coins have gone up rather much over the past 2 months. The average buy price in july was about 90 silver and the sell price was about 1.1 gold. At the moment however the buyprice is 1.38 gold and the sellingprice 1.58 gold. I think the demand for the coins with the introduction of gen 2 legendary weapons, legendary backpacks and legendary armor might have become bigger than the actual supply, although I have no professional background in economics.

I honestly don't feel like wasting gold on them.I guess you can get about 20-25 mystic coins from doing your dailies on one account each month, so it would take little less than under a year to get a mystic tribute (not counting mystic clovers).

My actual question is therefor simple, do you think Anet should add additional ways to get mystic coins in the upcomming Path of Fire expansion?(Or should I not count on that happening and just make a bunch of alternate accounts like everyone else does?)

I think they should introduce a few new, limited, sources of MC in the expac. Something like 1 MC for completing a legendary bounty, on a once a day reward box. Limits how many people can get, also takes a bit of effort to acquire.

Also remember, with the expac, there'll be a lot of returning and new players to the game. Which means more people getting mats and selling. I would caution to wait on prices until the initial influx of players in the next few weeks. I would argue that once we hit November/December we'll know if there's a serious supply issue.

@OriOri.8724 said:I think they should introduce a few new, limited, sources of MC in the expac. Something like 1 MC for completing a legendary bounty, on a once a day reward box. Limits how many people can get, also takes a bit of effort to acquire.

Something like this sounds like a good idea. They could also add one to the first defeat of each raid boss each week to add a bit more to the supply.

We are 8 days from a major update. Speculation is normal. Stop panicking.

Remember you also get mystic coins from fractal daylies, chance on the material consumers from LWS3, the anomalies events, WvW reward track...

Chris Cleary from Anet says:

Most of this price increase revolves around players that are pushing the value up due to the players willingness to pay more. If players are willing to pay more for an item, it’s going to keep increasing until eventually it hits a ceiling for the commodity. We’ve seen the same thing occur with numerous commodities over time.

Right now there is a consistent supply of mystic coins entering the game (way more than are being consumed) and churning through the trading post at a very slow rate. Most of the coins on the market are ones that have been flipped.

In retrospect, this is actually causing the daily login reward to be worth significantly more to players who wish to convert mystic coins to gold.

https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Mystic-Coins-again/page/2#post6157178

Raid cm would be a great place to introduce mc as a weekly reward.And you didn't mention the mc you get in pvp and WvW reward tracks! :)

@Ayrilana.1396 said:Chris Cleary from Anet says:

Most of this price increase revolves around players that are pushing the value up due to the players willingness to pay more. If players are willing to pay more for an item, it’s going to keep increasing until eventually it hits a ceiling for the commodity. We’ve seen the same thing occur with numerous commodities over time.

Right now there is a consistent supply of mystic coins entering the game (way more than are being consumed) and churning through the trading post at a very slow rate. Most of the coins on the market are ones that have been flipped.

In retrospect, this is actually causing the daily login reward to be worth significantly more to players who wish to convert mystic coins to gold.

That quote is from almost 1.5 years ago, and the price of MC has only risen since then along with a lot of new sinks added for them. People were unhappy about coins back then, and the problem has only gotten worse in their eyes. Considering how often they are brought up (and every time they are still upvoted to the top of the subreddit), its clearly not a small amount of players who are upset over MC still.

@OriOri.8724 said:

@Ayrilana.1396 said:Chris Cleary from Anet says:

Most of this price increase revolves around players that are pushing the value up due to the players willingness to pay more. If players are willing to pay more for an item, it’s going to keep increasing until eventually it hits a ceiling for the commodity. We’ve seen the same thing occur with numerous commodities over time.

Right now there is a consistent supply of mystic coins entering the game (way more than are being consumed) and churning through the trading post at a very slow rate. Most of the coins on the market are ones that have been flipped.

In retrospect, this is actually causing the daily login reward to be worth significantly more to players who wish to convert mystic coins to gold.

Based on what I have seen so far, I feel that the quote is still applicable today.

@OriOri.8724 said:I think they should introduce a few new, limited, sources of MC in the expac. Something like 1 MC for completing a legendary bounty, on a once a day reward box. Limits how many people can get, also takes a bit of effort to acquire.

Upvoted this; there definitely needs to be an injection of MC somewhere within the new expansion - ArenaNet have been adding more methods for obtaining them; tournament rewards in PvP and the new 100CM, but that still saw a rise in the prices and not a fall in prices like they would have wanted.

On the flip side, not everyone does PvP and even less people will win the tournaments, so the big rewards are only going to be for those top teams which will most likely use them rather than sell them.

I admit, I really like these things having value. I say that even as I make legenadries and have to buy more. I remember when I saw them as junk loot and thought they were a waste. I wouldn't mind seeing them get to the 5 gold mark one day. The more they raise in price the more value will be placed on steps to acquire them like reward tracks, fractals, dailies and the like. May not be the popular opinion, but it is a view point even as I place buy offers.

Let's be realistic, these new ways to obtain MC are definitely not for average player.CM? Lots of people don't do fractals at all, and majority of the ones who do, don't do CM for sure.Daily Ley-Line Anomaly is actually good way , accesible for everybody.Then again: AT. You need to achieve at least 8th place in daily or 32nd in monthly: almost impossible for average player.And Skirmish reward track: while getting into gold tier is possible even for people who WvW only for daily, then getting into diamond may be struggle even for high rank players, especially when you are in, or are linked to weak server and get rekt week after week.

So the only stable way to obtain MC remain through daily rewards, but number of ways to spend them rose.

Adding them as reward to raids also won't solve problem: again only few people will get them and rather spend them than sell.

I think they should be added as reward to something way more accesible like bounties or maybe something that need 'revival' like dungeons (maybe as reward for Dungeon Frequenter?)

Side note, they have actually been in decline since this was originally posted. Unless we see legendaries they may continue to decline in value. Which supports statements made by Chris Cleary about supply and demand.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19976

@Ayrilana.1396 said:Chris Cleary from Anet says:

Most of this price increase revolves around players that are pushing the value up due to the players willingness to pay more. If players are willing to pay more for an item, it’s going to keep increasing until eventually it hits a ceiling for the commodity. We’ve seen the same thing occur with numerous commodities over time.

Right now there is a consistent supply of mystic coins entering the game (way more than are being consumed) and churning through the trading post at a very slow rate. Most of the coins on the market are ones that have been flipped.

In retrospect, this is actually causing the daily login reward to be worth significantly more to players who wish to convert mystic coins to gold.

At the moment when Chris Cleary made this statement, the official economist for GW2 was still J. Smith. Taking into account that JS remained silent most of the time regarding the MC issue and the answers were given by ANet employees having no (official) responsibility on the game economy, I consider Mr. Cleary opinion to be on the same level of credibility with any of the opinions expressed by any of the Forum members.

Pff - the game security leader having opinions about the game economy, while the expert economist keeps silence. No wonder the story of the game is so .... controversial - I bet it is written by the balance team. While the development of the game is performed by the voice acting and special sound effects department.

"Most of this price increase revolves around players that are pushing the value up due to the players willingness to pay more." - this is a real pearl. You can easily understand from this statement how unhappy the players could be with a low price, because they want to pay more =). At one time, JS stated that nobody (from the player base) can control or influence in a decisive way the market. What about the statement "players that are pushing the value up ... " ? Theoretically, with a normal amount of supply, this tactic should not work. If it is working, that means the supply is not OK.

Back on topic: The MC issue is long and very well known. The ANet stubborness in claiming that all is OK while the prices goes UP and UP has no explication for me. What costs/loses can affect Anet if the supply of MC is supplemented? And why ANet refuses to make this crafting material something you can obtain in the Open World by playing the game? Why this fixation to control this resource?

In my opinion if a new source of MC will appear, this should not be linked to PoF. If ANet thinks that PoF is so worthless that you need to add a source of MC into it to make the players buy it ...... HM.The fiasco of the "challenging leather farm" in Lake Doric should be enough.

"It's your own fault for hoarding. The economy is just fine."John Smith, probably, though not necessarily about Mystic Coins.

@TheGrimm.5624 said:Side note, they have actually been in decline since this was originally posted. Unless we see legendaries they may continue to decline in value. Which supports statements made by Chris Cleary about supply and demand.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19976

Just because more people suddenly logged in giving a huge boost to supply of MCs. And the spike before could easily be seen as a bubble created by expansion expectations, which popped as players found that nothing in the expansion uses mystic coins in a significant way.

Pure speculation by me ofcourse. But this seems the most logical.

@Cristalyan.5728 said:

@Ayrilana.1396 said:Chris Cleary from Anet says:

Most of this price increase revolves around players that are pushing the value up due to the players willingness to pay more. If players are willing to pay more for an item, it’s going to keep increasing until eventually it hits a ceiling for the commodity. We’ve seen the same thing occur with numerous commodities over time.

Right now there is a consistent supply of mystic coins entering the game (way more than are being consumed) and churning through the trading post at a very slow rate. Most of the coins on the market are ones that have been flipped.

In retrospect, this is actually causing the daily login reward to be worth significantly more to players who wish to convert mystic coins to gold.

He has access to the data, you don’t. Whether or not he has/had direct responsibility for the game economy doesn’t matter. What the data tells someone isn’t predicated by their involvement in the economy.

When he said nobody, he’s referring to an individual or small group of individuals. We had this very same discussion many years ago rebooking precursors and how some players were accusing TP barons of manipulating the prices when it turned out to be untrue. A small group of individuals is vastly different than a much larger subset of the playerbase.

Mystic coins are used for optional for luxury skins. They are not required for any gameplay element. Players can earn them in the open world once a day.

That leather farm was successful as it provided a means for players to directly farm hardened leather. You can get that leather at a much much greater rate than you could anywhere else in the history of the game.

Supply for mystic coins has doubled since PoF came out and is still increasing. Supply isn’t the problem here. The price has also lost a third of its value since then as well.

@FrizzFreston.5290 said:

@TheGrimm.5624 said:Side note, they have actually been in decline since this was originally posted. Unless we see legendaries they may continue to decline in value. Which supports statements made by Chris Cleary about supply and demand.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19976

I expect its a combo of things, we will have to see if new legendaries are announced how that impacts things. We also don't know if new ones will have new recipes and require different mats. Sadly the new trend is less journey and more material sync (which are effective syncs I will agree) so new ones might follow that trend for materials that there is already an abundance of. That said 30K coins were added to listings in just the last 2 months and buy orders have been dropping over the same period. Flippers have already probably been listing and filling some orders as price had peaked and is currently falling. That might trigger more people to sell or list their supplies as well. Note I say all this while I am also working on 3 legendaries, but there is a price for rushing them. Course I admit I never understand why anyone would use their coins for clovers when you can PvP/WvW thru reward tracks to get them. Its a matter of fighting that I need it today syndrome.

I use them for clovers because the time it takes to complete a reward track for two mystic clovers, I could’ve spent elsewhere farming gold and bought enough to make many more clovers.

@TheGrimm.5624 said:Course I admit I never understand why anyone would use their coins for clovers when you can PvP/WvW thru reward tracks to get them. Its a matter of fighting that I need it today syndrome.

Not to mention magic-warped packets and bundles for mystic clovers. A rare chance ofc, but you would need other mats for anything mystic clover related anyhow.

But yeah, Im aware its always a combination of alot of things. Just pointing out the biggest changes and non-changes that couldve been speculated upon.

People are being selective about offering quotes about mystic coins and other aspects of the economy. The key determining factors remain:

• Coins aren't required for playing the game; they are only important to people who want specific shinies.
• Everyone already gets enough free coins to make a legendary each year.
• The cost of making legendaries has largely dropped despite the increase in value of coins.
• Coins currently provide an easy option for richer veterans to give some of their wealth to poorer newbies. (Later, when those poorer newbies become richer veterans, they can buy more for themselves. It's a classic case of stealing from the rich to give to the poor.)

This discussion comes up everytime theres an increased demand for mystic coins for whatever reason, but expansions and new releases of new items that need them are the usual culprits.Mystic coin prices are cyclic as the supply side is more constant than the demand side.They are currently 85s, have been as low 60s and as high as 1G 30 over the last 12 months.Theres currently 45000 for sale on the TP, so there is no shortage of them.Most people who complain are those who suddenly find for whatever reason they need a lot NOW, and expect to be able to buy them on the TP for nothing.There are 2 types of people who use the TP.Buyers who want everything to be free or as low as possible, and sellers who want the most they can possibly get.Who should win?

@FrizzFreston.5290 said:

@TheGrimm.5624 said:Course I admit I never understand why anyone would use their coins for clovers when you can PvP/WvW thru reward tracks to get them. Its a matter of fighting that I need it today syndrome.

Clovers from those seems extremely rare. You have a much better chance of getting ascended materials, selling those, buying the coins then make the clover.

@Khisanth.2948 said:Clovers from those seems extremely rare. You have a much better chance of getting ascended materials, selling those, buying the coins then make the clover.

The data I have from 1750 bundles is:

• roughly 1.6g value per 1000 unbound magic, on average (if you buy in Ember Bay; it's not worth it to buy in other areas) (taking into account Evon's cut)
• plus 3.9 clover per 100 bundles

From 1000 packets, I have

• ~0.60g value per 1000 unbound magic
• includes the value of ~9 ascended mats per 100 packets (roughly evenly divided)

In other words, it's better to buy bundles instead of packets, even if you don't care about the clover (and it's better still if you do).