Can you explain placement to me?

I have a quick question about the placement matches. I have been somewhat confused. I have played 4 seasons.

I am fairly certain I remember correctly because I like to compare my current season to previous ones.

My first season: won 7 out of 10 placement games. Got placed bronze 3. Totally cool with that as I was a new player. Hovered between bronze 2 and silver 1 the rest of the season so probably accurate placement.

Second season: won 6 out of 10. Got placed in silver 2. Hovered between silver 1 and gold 1 for the rest of the season.

Third season: won 6 out of 10. Got placed in gold 2. Hovered around between silver 3 and gold 3 rest of the season.

This season: only won 4 out of 10 placement games. Got placed in gold 2. How is that? Should t I have been like bronze or something with those placement games? I did have a couple DCd teammates on two placement matches. Not sure if that matter. When I looked at my placement matches after those the red bar still got bigger.

I honestly am not concerned with my rating. I like to see myself improve but don’t really care if I’m bronze or gold or plat. Doesn’t matter to me. I’m just confused on how I am placing higher each season even though my placement win rate is decreasing. Each season I average a 50% win rate.

Any ideas?

I can't explain really how the placement system works but I can offer some insight as to the last placement set you had. In the event of a dc that goes longer than 2 minutes, the inevitable loss is ignored by the placement system. It will still show up as a loss (just like it would if you were already placed and trying to climb) but it has no impact on your placement. So in actuality your last placement set was 4/8 which is close to the 6/10 placements you were pulling earlier. Hence, why you placed in relatively the same area.

Yeah that helps on that one. I still wonder why having similar placements I place from bronze 3 to gold 2. I know they changed the divisions at some point, but still seems weird that I would place higher with a similar win rate on placement games across seasons.

Probably because a lot of the people more experienced than you stopped playing PvP for whatever reason (didn't buy PoF, found a new game, got a girlfriend, started school/work, whateves) and a lot of newer players starting playing in the PoF release hype, so your position in the player pool shifted from silver tier to gold to accommodate the shift in player base.

Simply put, your 4 seasons of experience, be it in bronze or silver, makes anet think you're %'ly better than the new people going in fresh--like you did in season 1. I'm pretty sure people who played more than 2 seasons got placed in gold even if they went 0-10 in placement. I mean, obviously I don't know for sure, but I think total games played career does matter in your placement, win or lose.

That’s kind of what it seems like. Though I don’t necessarily think that is a good design. Makes it hard to tell how much I improve. I should only place higher if I am actually better than before. I guess I may be relatively better than before in terms of player pool, but that should shake out after a lot of games. Not in the placement matches.

To understand the placements first you need to understand the two key parameters in the system, rating and deviation. Rating is where you are a on the ladder. You start the season with your last seasons rating averaged with 1200. That is called a soft reset. Deviation is a measure of how accurately the system knows your rating. It is equivalent to a standard deviation in statistics. What that means is the system is 95% confident you are 2 deviations from your current rating. You start the season with a deviation of 350.

The MMR algorithm takes those parameters, and the rating and deviation of each team you play and uses it to adjust your rating and deviation each match. Beating better teams is worth more than beating weak teams. Every match your rating will go down, so the points you can lose or win will go down as well. Wins at the front of the rating matches are worth more than the back end because of your deviation. So two people could start at the same rating and go 5-5, but if someone loses their first 5 matches, they will never be able to catch up to the person that alternated wins and losses because they lost so much rating at the beginning.

To answer your question quickly, you probably finished your last season around gold 3. So you started with a better rating than previous seasons. You probably won more matches in your first five placement matches than you did at the back end. Also, some of your initial matches could have been against plat level players which would mean you wouldn't lose as much rating.

@Majirah.5089 said:I have a quick question about the placement matches. I have been somewhat confused. I have played 4 seasons.

I am fairly certain I remember correctly because I like to compare my current season to previous ones.

My first season: won 7 out of 10 placement games. Got placed bronze 3. Totally cool with that as I was a new player. Hovered between bronze 2 and silver 1 the rest of the season so probably accurate placement.

Second season: won 6 out of 10. Got placed in silver 2. Hovered between silver 1 and gold 1 for the rest of the season.

Third season: won 6 out of 10. Got placed in gold 2. Hovered around between silver 3 and gold 3 rest of the season.

This season: only won 4 out of 10 placement games. Got placed in gold 2. How is that? Should t I have been like bronze or something with those placement games? I did have a couple DCd teammates on two placement matches. Not sure if that matter. When I looked at my placement matches after those the red bar still got bigger.

I honestly am not concerned with my rating. I like to see myself improve but don’t really care if I’m bronze or gold or plat. Doesn’t matter to me. I’m just confused on how I am placing higher each season even though my placement win rate is decreasing. Each season I average a 50% win rate.

Any ideas?

Quaggan believes your rating carries between seasons and your -previous played season rating- = -rating where your next placement matches start-...

Thank you Faux for your answer. That makes a lot more sense now. I stopped clicking on the accepted answers as I realized it loved them to the top. But yours makes sense.

@Morwath.9817 said:

@Majirah.5089 said:I have a quick question about the placement matches. I have been somewhat confused. I have played 4 seasons.

I am fairly certain I remember correctly because I like to compare my current season to previous ones.

My first season: won 7 out of 10 placement games. Got placed bronze 3. Totally cool with that as I was a new player. Hovered between bronze 2 and silver 1 the rest of the season so probably accurate placement.

Second season: won 6 out of 10. Got placed in silver 2. Hovered between silver 1 and gold 1 for the rest of the season.

Third season: won 6 out of 10. Got placed in gold 2. Hovered around between silver 3 and gold 3 rest of the season.

This season: only won 4 out of 10 placement games. Got placed in gold 2. How is that? Should t I have been like bronze or something with those placement games? I did have a couple DCd teammates on two placement matches. Not sure if that matter. When I looked at my placement matches after those the red bar still got bigger.

I honestly am not concerned with my rating. I like to see myself improve but don’t really care if I’m bronze or gold or plat. Doesn’t matter to me. I’m just confused on how I am placing higher each season even though my placement win rate is decreasing. Each season I average a 50% win rate.

Any ideas?

It is a "soft reset". Last (seasons rating + 1200) * 0.5. Here is the wiki article for quaggen to read: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/PvP_Matchmaking_Algorithm

@"Faux Play.6104" said:To understand the placements first you need to understand the two key parameters in the system, rating and deviation. Rating is where you are a on the ladder. You start the season with your last seasons rating averaged with 1200. That is called a soft reset. Deviation is a measure of how accurately the system knows your rating. It is equivalent to a standard deviation in statistics. What that means is the system is 95% confident you are 2 deviations from your current rating. You start the season with a deviation of 350.

The MMR algorithm takes those parameters, and the rating and deviation of each team you play and uses it to adjust your rating and deviation each match. Beating better teams is worth more than beating weak teams. Every match your rating will go down, so the points you can lose or win will go down as well. Wins at the front of the rating matches are worth more than the back end because of your deviation. So two people could start at the same rating and go 5-5, but if someone loses their first 5 matches, they will never be able to catch up to the person that alternated wins and losses because they lost so much rating at the beginning.

To answer your question quickly, you probably finished your last season around gold 3. So you started with a better rating than previous seasons. You probably won more matches in your first five placement matches than you did at the back end. Also, some of your initial matches could have been against plat level players which would mean you wouldn't lose as much rating.

Were did you get the information that your variables are adjusted inbetween placement matches? I am under the assumption that all placement-matches occur within one rating interval so there would be no change to your rating or deviation.Also why should you lose or gain more rating if you are rated higher or lower? If two players are rated the same with same deviation there should be the same loss/gain regardless how they are ranked.

My is your rating, my' is your new rating, phi is your deviation and phi' is your new deviation in the formula. s is dependent on matchoutcome. E is dependant on the difference in rating and becomes 0,5 if both opponents have the same rating. As far as i can see it only matters the difference between their ratings.If i am mistaken i would be glad if you could correct me, i took the formulas from glicko.net from the glicko-2 pdf.

GW adjusts it per match. They don't do it like a chess tourney where all matches are counted as one rating period. I had a post in the old forums about it. I'll have to dig it up, but when I calculated it out it out using the numbers in the wiki, after 10 matches the deviation I had calculated produced very similar rating changes to what I was getting on the 11th match.

@Faux Play.6104 said:GW adjusts it per match. They don't do it like a chess tourney where all matches are counted as one rating period. I had a post in the old forums about it. I'll have to dig it up, but when I calculated it out it out using the numbers in the wiki, after 10 matches the deviation I had calculated produced very similar rating changes to what I was getting on the 11th match. If you took your deviation as 350, and only reduced it by one rating period after the rating matches, you would be having huge jumps in rating >100 on the 11th match.

@Faux Play.6104 said:

@Morwath.9817 said:

@Majirah.5089 said:I have a quick question about the placement matches. I have been somewhat confused. I have played 4 seasons.

I am fairly certain I remember correctly because I like to compare my current season to previous ones.

My first season: won 7 out of 10 placement games. Got placed bronze 3. Totally cool with that as I was a new player. Hovered between bronze 2 and silver 1 the rest of the season so probably accurate placement.

Second season: won 6 out of 10. Got placed in silver 2. Hovered between silver 1 and gold 1 for the rest of the season.

Third season: won 6 out of 10. Got placed in gold 2. Hovered around between silver 3 and gold 3 rest of the season.

This season: only won 4 out of 10 placement games. Got placed in gold 2. How is that? Should t I have been like bronze or something with those placement games? I did have a couple DCd teammates on two placement matches. Not sure if that matter. When I looked at my placement matches after those the red bar still got bigger.

I honestly am not concerned with my rating. I like to see myself improve but don’t really care if I’m bronze or gold or plat. Doesn’t matter to me. I’m just confused on how I am placing higher each season even though my placement win rate is decreasing. Each season I average a 50% win rate.

Any ideas?

Quaggan is thankful.

@Faux Play.6104 said:GW adjusts it per match. They don't do it like a chess tourney where all matches are counted as one rating period. I had a post in the old forums about it. I'll have to dig it up, but when I calculated it out it out using the numbers in the wiki, after 10 matches the deviation I had calculated produced very similar rating changes to what I was getting on the 11th match.

Would you mind to look if you could find it again? If i am not mistaken there once was a rating period of 2 days in guildwars before the introducion of seasons.Do you know a reason why there isnt one anymore? Instead of rating gain/loss per match they could show the expected rating gain/loss when the rating period would end.

@Crystal Black.8190 said:

@"Faux Play.6104" said:GW adjusts it per match. They don't do it like a chess tourney where all matches are counted as one rating period. I had a post in the old forums about it. I'll have to dig it up, but when I calculated it out it out using the numbers in the wiki, after 10 matches the deviation I had calculated produced very similar rating changes to what I was getting on the 11th match.

Breaking it up into periods would be hard with the hot join queue they have now. That makes more sense when people all play the same number of matches. I'm having trouble searching the old forums so I just recreated a plot of the matches of two players who both start at the default rating, both go 6-4, but have very different final rating. I tried to make each player have matches against opponents that were at a similar rating to what they were at when they did placements. The bars on the graph represent the 95% confidence interval of the players rating, (2*deviation).