Reduced Chance of Keys from BLC

Hey,

I was wondering if it's intentional that BLC award less scraps and tickets than before? They have some nice (ish) rewards now, but the tickets and scraps seem reduced. (I got 4 scraps out of 50 chests)

Was I just unlucky, or did the changes to reward structure alter the frequency of tickets?

RNG will always be RNG. That's pretty much the simple answer.Could've gotten 50 out of 50 chests or 1 or none from 50.

@Loboling.5293 said:Hey,

I was wondering if it's intentional that BLC award less scraps and tickets than before? They have some nice (ish) rewards now, but the tickets and scraps seem reduced. (I got 4 scraps out of 50 chests)

Was I just unlucky, or did the changes to reward structure alter the frequency of tickets?

Got 17 scraps out of 50.On the second 25keys i got no uncommon, rare or super rare drop ( i got a platinum node on the first 25 keys ).

Simply RNG.

Wow your RNG was bad, I got 20+ scraps out of 25 chests and one regular ticket. Yes I have the entire Glacier set love the look and effects.

@Ayumi Spender.1082 said:RNG will always be RNG. That's pretty much the simple answer.Could've gotten 50 out of 50 chests or 1 or none from 50.

Neither of those is very likely, but we don't really know how unlikely... because the question is: what was the drop rate before this month and what is it today?The problem is we don't have enough data to say with any certainty. 50 keys isn't enough, especially since we don't know about what else the OP might have gotten.

Incidentally, I personally would prefer fewer scraps: 10 scraps is typically worth 30-40g; I'd rather have that extra chance for something more interesting. (Your mileage will vary, of course.)

Your chance of getting a ticket or scrap probably is lower in this round of chests compared to previous ones, simply because there's many more items in the Common and Uncommon tiers. Before if you got a Common item there was about a 1 in 12 chance it would be a scrap, now it's 1 in 25.

Of course we don't know for sure all items in a tier have the same probability of dropping, it could be different for each item, and in that case they could have tweaked the values so you've got the same chance of getting a ticket or scrap. But in the absence of enough data to know for sure* it seems reasonable to assume they all have the same drop rate and so you're less likely to get a ticket or scrap simply because there's so many other things you could get instead.

*The data to work this out might well exist, if someone has been tracking drop rates on the new chests, but I don't have it.

@"Danikat.8537" said:*The data to work this out might well exist, if someone has been tracking drop rates on the new chests, but I don't have it.

I regularly scour for data and it's very hard to find more than 50 or 100 drops posted in enough detail to compare between "seasons" of chests. Given how much stuff can drop from the chests, I think we'd need data for ~500 chests minimum (that would be 20-40 each common items on average, thus making the data less sensitive to weird streaks). It wouldn't help us a lot with rare or super rare rates, but it should be enough for scraps and other common rarity.

I have a friend who regularly buys 50 and I used to write it all down. (We both have some fun seeing the results.) Even within a season, there's a pretty big variation between each set of 50 (as I'd expect with so many common drops).

tl;dr it's hard to find reasonably clear data on more than 50-100 chests, when we need 500 minimum to start making some reasonable estimates.