what's your recent experience of mystic clover drop rates ( from the forge)?

the last few months I've been experiencing a mystic clover drop rate of roughly half the ~33% chance they are listed to have ( and historically experienced).Recently I've found the rate to be 15-20%.

I wish we had a fixed cost for mystic clovers at this point. The RNG is just frustrating and expensive.

What experiences do you have with forging clovers( from the mystic forge)?

100% Because I just farmed 70 of them through reward tracks that give 7 on completion. 8^)

My latest run about 6 weeks ago was 33%, which is higher than my lifetime average of 30%.

There are several factors that affect the rate you see and you haven't mentioned any of them:

• Whether you use the 1-clover or 10-clover recipe -- the rates are identical, but the variance is higher for 10x in the short run (of 1000s of attempts typical for most players).
• How many clover you were aiming to get. (In the extreme, if you only need 10, then you could easily have a 10% rate by failing the 10x recipe nine times in a row and succeeding once and no longer measuring.)

I doubt it would be easy for ANet to swap to a fixed cost recipe at this late date: the Clover recipes are designed to sink ecto, bound currencies (nominally karma), gold (via m-coins bought from the TP), and spirit shards and there already is a 10x recipe. It's doable, but it would probably take a lot of attention and a lot of data simulations to get it right -- those are resources that are also being used to balance new rewards, new collections, new recipes, etc.

It's worth asking; I just think it's unlikely to happen.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:My latest run about 6 weeks ago was 33%, which is higher than my lifetime average of 30%.

There are several factors that affect the rate you see and you haven't mentioned any of them:

• Whether you use the 1-clover or 10-clover recipe -- the rates are identical, but the variance is higher for 10x in the short run (of 1000s of attempts typical for most players).
• How many clover you were aiming to get. (In the extreme, if you only need 10, then you could easily have a 10% rate by failing the 10x recipe nine times in a row and succeeding once and no longer measuring.)

I doubt it would be easy for ANet to swap to a fixed cost recipe at this late date: the Clover recipes are designed to sink ecto, bound currencies (nominally karma), gold (via m-coins bought from the TP), and spirit shards and there already is a 10x recipe. It's doable, but it would probably take a lot of attention and a lot of data simulations to get it right -- those are resources that are also being used to balance new rewards, new collections, new recipes, etc.

It's worth asking; I just think it's unlikely to happen.

The recipe could be very simple: just use 3x the items the x1 recipe uses, for 1 clover.The input would be the same, you lose the additional items as output, but that is the cost for a guaranteed clover.

edit: to be clear, this would be in addition to the current recipes, not in place of.

@Artemis Thuras.8795 said:The recipe could be very simple: just use 3x the items the x1 recipe uses, for 1 clover.The input would be the same, you lose the additional items as output, but that is the cost for a guaranteed clover.

edit: to be clear, this would be in addition to the current recipes, not in place of.

The recipe is simple, but that doesn't mean there aren't economic implications. The reduced consolation prizes will affect both supply on TP and demand (since those using the guaranteed recipe would be spending triple, without making any progress towards the other legendary requirements). Again, I'm not saying that this is all that hard -- the point is that there's still effort involved and this isn't the only QoL balance/recipe issue (not to mention the same folks also have to work on the new markets, recipes, etc).

There's no question that this is a really annoying mechanic, but it's one that only affects a small fraction of the community and it only affects us for a relatively small amount of time. It might not be the most important QoL recipe issue.

There are plenty of really good ideas out there that might not ever see implementation because they are one among many such good ideas.