Results of Opening 1000 Black Lion Chests

Redditor ReploidX9 just posted their results for opening 1000 Black Lion Chests.

In screenshot form

!

In List Form

Thanks to HastaKalistaBaby for collating.

Guaranteed

• The Evon Gnashblade Lucky Envelope (1051)
• Black Lion Statuette (1250)

Common (2336 items)

! Utility Primer (45)! Metabolic Primer (41)! Season 1 Memory Box - Scarlet vs. Lion's Arch (37)! Season 1 Memory Box - Flame and Festivals (36)! Self-Style Hair Kit (91)! Upgrade Extractor (106)! Transmutation Charge (255)! Revive Orb (150)! Crimson Lion Dye Kit (84)! Lion's Arch Rebuild Dye Kit (80)! Primordus Dye Kit (85)! Shadow Dye Kit (84)! Tyrian Exchange Voucher (43)! Black Lion Commemorative Coin (50)! Teleport to Friend (137)! Large Crafting Bag (210)! Heavy Crafting Bag (206)! Black Lion Material Bag: Elona (102)! Guaranteed Weapon Unlock (50)! Guaranteed Armor Unlock (55)! Guaranteed Wardrobe Unlock (71)! Black Lion Miniature Claim Ticket (70)! Toy Miniature Egg (96)! Black Lion Claim Ticket Scrap (152)

Uncommon (90 drops)

• Crimson Lion Skins (total: 59): Staff (5), Torch (4), Shield (3), Mace (4), Short Bow (6), Warhorn (4), Greatsword (2), Scepter (5), Dagger (2), Longbow (2), Axe (6), Rifle (6), Sword (9), Pistol Skin (1)
• Black Lion Claim Ticket (14)
• Total Makeover Kit (15)
• Griffon Hatchling Package (1)
• Fire-Breathing Package (1)

Rare (12 drops)

• Lovestruck Skins (total: 9): Short Bow (1), Rifle (1), Scepter (1), Anlace (2), Focus (1), Mace (1), Sword (1), Greatsword (1),
• Elder Wood Logging Node (1)
• Orichalcum Mining Node (1)
• Endless Mystic Tonic (1)

Super Rare (0 drops)None of the permanent contracts dropped.

Caveats:

• Extra BL Statuettes can drop as either Common (2-4x) or Rare (25x) drops. The person collating just grouped them under Guaranteed, because there's no way to tell the source. That slightly throws off the odds for those categories. (Probably not by much)
• The Fire-Breathing Package drops 2 items. The Griffon Hatchling Package drops a different 2 items.

Reminder: I wasn't the person buying/opening the chests. That was the OP on the linked reddit thread.

Observations

Drop Rates

The drops rates for this small sample was

• Super Rare: 0%
• Rare: 1.2% (see above; that number might be a bit low)
• Uncommon: 9% (ditto; might be a bit low)
• Common: 233.6% (remember: we get multiples)

We can't use this sample to determine the drop rates for the account-bound drops (this month, the two packages), because you can only get those once each. The poster might have gotten both in the first 10 drops or in the last 10; we can't tell the difference. We'd need to see multiple players posting results to even attempt to determine the drop rate.

The Sample Size is Small

Yes, 1000 BL keys is a small sample size. We know this because

• There were 0 Super Rare drops.
• The player did not even get one of each Lovestruck skin, a Rare drop.
• As a general rule, we'd like to see at least 20-50 items drop in each "bin", so that any single lucky drop doesn't skew the results. This sample doesn't even include 20 Rare drops, let alone 20 of each sort.

Conclusions

• As usual, the obvious conclusion is obvious: The odds are never in your favor.
• There's an incredibly tiny chance of getting good drops and an even small chance of getting the best ones (the endless contracts). That, of course, explains why the price of these contracts remains high on the TP.
• The lesson we should all learn (and hardly ever do) remains the same: Do not buy BL chests unless you really like the moment of anticipation right before opening.

If there's interest, I'll post the value of those drops here later, as time permits.

I see 505 Transmutation Charges in the screenshot. Just sayin'...

Yeah, BL chests/keys continue to not be worth buying. Who woulda thunk it.

People will continue to buy the keys just like people will continue to play the lottery. For some people the insanely small chance to get something good is enough for them to spend money on the gamble. Anet knows this and that's why they keep them in the game, suckers will keep buying them.

you didnt mention the 152 black lion ticket scraps which is like another 15 full tickets :D

and yeh ... i think currently main reason to buy them is because of the accountbound unique skins that can be found exclusively in black lion chests and change from time to timeTrying your luck with the rest of the drops doesnt seem to be worth it to me even though they improved a bit (wardrobe unlocks for example)

@Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:I see 505 Transmutation Charges in the screenshot. Just sayin'...

its actually 755

@"Orangensaft.7139" said:you didnt mention the 152 black lion ticket scraps which is like another 15 full tickets ::disappointed:Those are listed. I just hid the "common" under the spoiler tag so the post wouldn't be two pages long.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

Common (2336 items)

• Black Lion Claim Ticket Scrap (152)

Uncommon (90 drops)

• Black Lion Claim Ticket (14)

Wow, look at all that stuff I want but will never have lol

i must have been astronomically lucky cause some years ago i opened a chest from a random key that a mob dropped and got the permanent black lion merchant contract, sold it at that time for 200g, thoguht it was a goddamn fortune.

Come to think of it, i was astronomically lucky X2, as i got both a lion key drop from a regular, random mob and then got the contract with that same key... jesus what is the chance? fucking rng

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

• The lesson we should all learn (and hardly ever do) remains the same: Do not buy BL chests unless you really like the moment of anticipation right before opening.

I disagree with that is a lesson we should learn as it's your opinion, it might not have anything to do with the excitement of anticipation at all...some people might not even get excited with the thought of opening the BLTC. Some people buy them just because they want the stuff and don't really care how they get it or how much they end up spending(if they buy keys), they might just look at it as supporting and investing in the game...for virtual goods.

@Zaklex.6308 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

• The lesson we should all learn (and hardly ever do) remains the same:
  Do not buy
  BL chests
  unless
  you really like the moment of anticipation right before opening.

People who buy the keys for the stuff are generally disappointed. People who buy because it's fun to open the chests usually are satisfied. Perhaps it could be rephrased, but it's still a lesson in statistics: the odds aren't in our favor.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@Zaklex.6308 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

• The lesson we should all learn (and hardly ever do) remains the same:
  Do not buy
  BL chests
  unless
  you really like the moment of anticipation right before opening.

Ah, but then it comes down to peoples expectations...if you expect to much you're almost always going to be disappointed. If, however, you temper your expectations and only expect the bare minimum then anything above that is a bonus. Maybe it's the way some people are brought up...it expect nothing but the bare minimum from anything, therefore when ever I get something above that minimum, great, but I don't feel giddy or happy or excited. Yes, the odds of getting something rare or super rare are not going to be in our favor, but the real point is you are getting something...if you go in expecting that rare or super rare item you'll most likely be disappointed, so don't expect them...ever, that's how you keep your mentality intact. Of course to get a better handle on percentages you'd probably need to open around 100k or more BLTC's to see a truer percentage value of each items drops, otherwise the statistical analysis is going to be quite variable...and even then 100k might not be enough, with something like that it's hard to tell what amount you'd need to reduce the error percentage below + or - 10%. Ideally you'd like to be able to say the number is within 1% or less of the actual percentages, but without knowing the drop percentage from ArenaNet themselves that would be hard to figure out.

I'd be super angry If I opened 1000 chests and didn't receive a permanent contract. Wow, just wow. This is evidence that they need to increase their drop rates. I know Anet has to make money, but this almost seems abusive. I hope the game continues to succeed but not by throwing integrity under the bus.

Thank you for posting this. Yes, there's a reason most players don't buy keys.

I guess I'm one of those people who don't expect to get a super-rare drop.

Don't magic find modifiers add to the chance of "rarer" drops from chests?

@"Leo G.4501" said:Wow, look at all that stuff I want but will never have lol

Honestly, I look at all the stuff and think "Stuff I don't really want". All skins and minis and boosters and dye kits and other kits or nodes have no value for me other than selling them for gold. The only thing I would want is the permanent hair stylist kit, but of course that one drops probably with every 50000th chest.

@"Game of Bones.8975" said:I guess I'm one of those people who don't expect to get a super-rare drop.

Don't magic find modifiers add to the chance of "rarer" drops from chests?

They do not.

@supa suop.8026 You are correct. I missed that 3rd stack.

For me, black lion chests is a good way for me to add value to my account. It's not for everyone and noone should make anyone feel bad in buying them. These loot boxes are what is keeping the game afloat.

@"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

• Uncommon: 9% (ditto; might be a bit low)"might be a bit low" lol what an understatement

Let's say you want a specific uncommon item and every uncommon item (there are currently 20 of them) has the same drop chance, this would mean you'll have a ~0,5 chance per chest of getting the uncommon item you want. So you have to buy roughly 200 BLKs for 16800 gems or ~4500 gold (atm) if you want to have a realistic chance of getting the "uncommon" item you want. This is why loot-boxes are cancer, at least if the loot-boxes are overpriced (which in this case they are) and the items in question aren't also available for direct purchase which usually isn't the case.

I like how people are trying to compare this in game currency with real life. The rules are simply not the same, the people know clear and well what to get from the lottery and the wishes are locating yourself in a different position in life. In this game using this form for lottery seems to depend more on boredom + not needing to spend the money on much else. You can of cause draw some parallels, of the human race liking to increasing their income by chance, that even if won a large sum, the actual process was more fun than the end goal. but I find it hard to believe that these 2 games depends on the same factor for the consumer.....

Basically= I think it depends more on the fact that it is a mini game of the real version, like fishing.....Rather than some psychological issues within the human race as some in here make it seem.

@"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:

Observations

Drop Rates

The drops rates for this small sample was

• Super Rare: 0%
• Rare: 1.2% (see above; that number might be a bit low)
• Uncommon: 9% (ditto; might be a bit low)
• Common: 233.6% (remember: we get multiples)

We can't use this sample to determine the drop rates for the account-bound drops (this month, the two packages), because you can only get those once each. The poster might have gotten both in the first 10 drops or in the last 10; we can't tell the difference. We'd need to see multiple players posting results to even attempt to determine the drop rate.

The Sample Size is Small

Yes, 1000 BL keys is a small sample size. We know this because

• There were 0 Super Rare drops.
• The player did not even get one of each Lovestruck skin, a Rare drop.
• As a general rule, we'd like to see at least 20-50 items drop in each "bin", so that any single lucky drop doesn't skew the results. This sample doesn't even include 20 Rare drops, let alone 20 of each sort.

Conclusions

• As usual, the obvious conclusion is obvious: The odds are never in your favor.
• There's an incredibly tiny chance of getting good drops and an even small chance of getting the best ones (the endless contracts). That, of course, explains why the price of these contracts remains high on the TP.
• The lesson we should all learn (and hardly ever do) remains the same: Do not buy BL chests unless you really like the moment of anticipation right before opening.

Dang sad sad results I would be crying. This is exactly why I opened the "Discussion on Black Lion Chests Gambling Drop Rate RNG and Transparency" earlier this month.

2100 gems for 25 Black Lion Keys84000 gems is worth $1050 for those 1000 Black Lion Keys.Were those drops worth that kind of money?If it was for research, was the research conclusive and worth it?I would say no to both.

This experiment is another sad reason why Anet should be transparent with the RNG of the Black Lion Chests.

@Cobrakon.3108 said:I'd be super angry If I opened 1000 chests and didn't receive a permanent contract. Wow, just wow. This is evidence that they need to increase their drop rates. I know Anet has to make money, but this almost seems abusive. I hope the game continues to succeed but not by throwing integrity under the bus.

Completely agree.

@Cobrakon.3108 said:I'd be super angry If I opened 1000 chests and didn't receive a permanent contract. Wow, just wow. This is evidence that they need to increase their drop rates. I know Anet has to make money, but this almost seems abusive. I hope the game continues to succeed but not by throwing integrity under the bus.

Or if you took into account how many chests are opened on a daily basis, you’d see why someone may not get it within 1000 chests.