Value of Golden Black Lion Key + Path Fire Survival Package

I'm considering buying the Path of Fire Survivalist Package on sale for 1530 gems (15% off from 1800 gems) on March 3rd.

I'm valuing the 10 black lion keys at 900 gems and the 5 heroic boosters at 637 gems

At 1537 gems, it looks like the Golden Black Lion key is given for free! What is the actual value of the golden black lion key ?

Currently, there are only 4 ways to get Golden Black Lion keys.

Either as a rare drop from a black lion chests or trading 50 black statutes for one.

Also, you can either buy the Path of Fire Survival package at 1800 gems or the Econ Gnashblade Decorative Package for 3000 gems.

The Path of Fire Survival Package looks like the better deal to me. Again, what is the value of Golden Black Lion keys to confirm that this Survival package has a good value or not?

@OutOfOrder.3719 said:I'm considering buying the Path of Fire Survivalist Package on sale for 1530 gems (15% off from 1800 gems) on March 3rd.

The item of interest is the value of the Golden black lion key.

I'm valuing the 10 black lion keys at 900 gems and the 5 heroic boosters at 637 gems

At 1537 gems, it looks like the Golden Black Lion key is given for free! What is the actual value of the golden black lion key ?

It has a guaranteed bonus drop which normally only occurs around 15 to 20 regular keys.Thats about it.The actual content of said bonus drop can still be trash

Well, you have a guaranteed uncommon or rarer drop. Find the value of the cheapest of those, convert to gems, and that's pretty much the value of a golden key.I'd say the cheapest thing is probably the BL Claim Ticket. Looking at GW2 efficiency i'd say around 30 gold. So ~120 gems or so?

Uncommon black lion weapons are worth roughly 16 gold.

Rare trash drop (black lion statute).

But all the other uncommon drops or higher look pretty good to me.

Personally, I'd value the Golden keys like a regular key, two at most. That's because I'm not really getting anything I couldn't get from regular keys.

One way to look at it, as suggested by @"Ayakaru.6583": about 96% of drops are "common" (according to 1000 results). "Better than common" therefore drops about once every 25 keys. On that basis, at your 90 gems/key valuation, the Golden Key is worth tens of thousands of gems.

However, based on the current contents, a guaranteed "uncommon" drop is probably going to be a Crimson Lion weapon skin, currently worth about 15 gold and worth maybe about 25g when the current chest version first appeared. And that's closer to 80-100 gems if you're converting coin|gems.

A third valuation is from the fact that Golden Keys cost 50 statuettes, which are worth 50g (if converted to commemorative coins) to ~200g. That means that ANet thinks it's roughly equivalent to ~200 gems.

Yes another measurement is that 100 statuettes can be used to purchase a home instance node worth 380-400g (pre-tax), so that the 50 statuettes used to buy a Golden Key would be worth just under 200g, or roughly 800 gems worth of gold.

On the other hand, in practice, the last two methods are incredibly unrealistic: there's little chance that you (or I) are going to get a "better than common" drop worth anything more than 15-25 gold (less during the last week of availability, more the first few days).

tl;dr I'd recommend against thinking of the Golden Key as noticeably more valuable than just a regular key: it's going to drop junk (which will only be vaguely more exciting than the ordinary junk).

Of all the videos of opening black lion chests that I have watched , only 1 person opened 3 chests with golden keys at one time. May have to rewatch the video to see what those 3 golden keys yielded.

After rewatching the video from winters day 2017, here were the rewards from the uncommon or better category for 3 Golden Black Lion keys.

Orrian Truffle Harvester NodeFrostforged DaggerWintersday Mount Package

It's hard to put a value on those keys, as very few people use just golden keys :)

I just bought a Golden Key, and I got a Crimson weapon of some sort. I probably should have purchased something more concrete. Oh, well. No biggie.

I just collected 100 statuettes and am torn between picking a home node and two golden keys...

@Nemezijus.6851 said:I just collected 100 statuettes and am torn between picking a home node and two golden keys...

I'd recommend a home node, selling it, and buy something you like with the funds. Evidence suggests that there's very little chance that you'll get something more exciting than what you got with your ~100 chests you opened with regular keys.

(If you do decide to get the keys, let us know what ends up dropping for you. And good luck!)

@ReaverKane.7598 said:Well, you have a guaranteed uncommon or rarer drop. Find the value of the cheapest of those, convert to gems, and that's pretty much the value of a golden key.I'd say the cheapest thing is probably the BL Claim Ticket. Looking at GW2 efficiency i'd say around 30 gold. So ~120 gems or so?

It is also a regular key. But without the change of a rare drop (as it is garanteed). I would put the regular key also on 100 gems and so a total of 220 gems.

Unless you what the firebreathing bow and quiver set, I would hold onto those Golden Black Lion keys for now.

That way you don't just get a crimson lion weapon skin as an uncommon drop.

I was thinking about buying the survival pack, but it's discounted down to 1700 gems from 2000 - what's going on here? OP what you wrote is what I read it was going to be, also the wiki still shows the price of the survival pack as 1800 gems.

@saria.6318 said:I was thinking about buying the survival pack, but it's discounted down to 1700 gems from 2000 - what's going on here? OP what you wrote is what I read it was going to be, also the wiki still shows the price of the survival pack as 1800 gems.

It's March 4th now, as far as the game is concerned. (At the time of your post, 17 minutes after reset or 00:17 UTC.)

@Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

@saria.6318 said:I was thinking about buying the survival pack, but it's discounted down to 1700 gems from 2000 - what's going on here? OP what you wrote is what I read it was going to be, also the wiki still shows the price of the survival pack as 1800 gems.

They didn't do the promotions at server reset so the time is irrelevant.

This is a classic example of ANET raising the price from the previous year.

For example, the standard price of the Survivalist package in 2017 was 1800 gems.

But Anet artificially raised the price to 2000 gems in 2018, just for the sale of 20% to make it actually 1700 gems.

When I saw this, I choose not to purchase the item. I was anticipating 20% off 1800 gems, not 20% of 2000 gems. Thanks Anet !

This instantly turned from a good deal to not a smart buy.

@"OutOfOrder.3719" said:This is a classic example of ANET raising the price from the previous year.

For example, the standard price of the Survivalist package in 2017 was 1800 gems.

But Anet artificially raised the price to 2000 gems in 2018, just for the sale of 20% to make it actually 1700 gems.

When I saw this, I choose not to purchase the item. I was anticipating 20% off 1800 gems, not 20% of 2000 gems. Thanks Anet !

This instantly turned from a good deal to not a smart buy.

The standard price of the Path of Fire Survival Package released in September 2017 was always 2000 gems. Sometimes ANet announces items initially at a discount price, e.g the currently available Branded Mountfit pack costs 1600 gems and its retail rate is 2000.

20% off 2000 gems would be 1600 gems; 20% off 1800 gems would be 1440 gems — a noteworthy difference, to be sure, but hardly enough to change it from "worthwhile" to "not worthwhile."

@Nemezijus.6851 said:I just collected 100 statuettes and am torn between picking a home node and two golden keys...

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@Nemezijus.6851 said:I just collected 100 statuettes and am torn between picking a home node and two golden keys...

Definitely this.