Black Lion Weapon Ticket (Scraps) droprate too low

I opened 50 keys and did not even get enough scraps for one ticket. Luckily I bought those gems with gold or I would be angry about wasting 50€ because all the other drops were junk also.

RNG is RNG. Sorry to hear you got absolutely nothing you found worthy. (Of course, you did accrue enough Statuettes for a Black Lion Claim Ticket.)

I, on the other hand, almost always have decent luck with BL Keys.

/shrug

You opened 50 chests and didn’t get a single wardrobe unlock or skin of any type? That is bad RNG.

The drop rate was recently nerfed.

I think you are supposed to get tickets these days by completing cheap collections from the uncommon dropped former BL weapons.

And since OP frequently brags about his 30 accounts, he should have some spare accounts with incomplete collections.

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:You opened 50 chests and didn’t get a single wardrobe unlock or skin of any type? That is bad RNG.I got 2 wardrobe unlockers I think. But I cannot use them anymore because I have the stuff inside already

@Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:RNG is RNG. Sorry to hear you got absolutely nothing you found worthy. (Of course, you did accrue enough Statuettes for a Black Lion Claim Ticket.)

I, on the other hand, almost always have decent luck with BL Keys.

/shrug

I dont think the low ticket (scrap) droprate is RNG. Anet just nerfed it

They changed the rate drastically, while making offering a different skin set as a common drop, each season. In effect, we get more BL skins, with less choice. In exchange for which, we have the statuettes, which gives us much more choice about everything else.

Based on data from the LNY season of chests, around 3 tickets per 100

• 15.2% scrap = 1.52% tickets
• 1.4% tickets

The chance of getting 0 net tickets from 50 is nearly 23%, i.e. it's not surprising that you didn't get any tickets. If we only consider whole tickets (ignoring the scraps), it's about 50-50.

However, you're also guaranteed to get at least 50 statuettes, which means you can choose to buy at least one ticket.

In the same set of 50 chests, it's likely to get around 3 of the Bloodstone skins (LNY rate: 59/1000 for Crimson Lion) and 0.45 Tormented (LNY rate: 9/1000). Add it all together and the chance of getting some BL skin is just under 10 per 1000.

because all the other drops were junk alsoWhy would you spend over 1100 gold on keys if all you wanted were tickets? For ~400 gold, one can outright buy all the Bloodstone skins and get 7 tickets (well, in your case, perhaps you already unlocked that collection). Similarly, it costs just ~800g to instantly purchase all the new, Alchemist weapons.

As with any lotto, the rule of thumb remains: buy if you like the entertainment value of opening; don't spend on lotto expecting anything good.

Well, you can't expect the same drop rates on each of the common items when they added more common items to the loot table. Regardless, BL Statuettes guarantee you will get something you desire, else why buy the Keys?

@Malediktus.9250 said:I opened 50 keys and did not even get enough scraps for one ticket. Luckily I bought those gems with gold or I would be angry about wasting 50€ because all the other drops were junk also.

All drop rates are too low, and sad thing there is no transparency on the official drop rates, it is a gamble in the dark. I would not recommend buying keys.

@Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:Well, you can't expect the same drop rates on each of the common items when they added more common items to the loot table. Regardless, BL Statuettes guarantee you will get something you desire, else why buy the Keys?True I spent the statuettes on the mount minis. But 26,25€ worth of gems per mini is not exactly good value, considering they are just resized existing models.

@Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:Well, you can't expect the same drop rates on each of the common items when they added more common items to the loot table. Regardless, BL Statuettes guarantee you will get something you desire, else why buy the Keys?There is way too much trash in the BLTC. Either remove most of the trash or at least give a guaranteed scrap in a 5th chest slot with 1/25 chance for a full ticket.

There have been times where it was possible to get 2 full tickets in one chest, now you are lucky to get a scrap. It is silly.

Guess you'll have to buy the prestige items from the trading post~Granted, this complaint is nothing new. It feels like ticket scraps have been less frequent since the BLCs have gotten better over time.

Ah, well...one man's trash is another man's treasure.

I've noticed, in my limited sample, a drop in the number of scraps compared to what I'm used to. But I got a LS1 box that gave me a Fused Rifle Skin, which is like 70 scraps, so there is that...

@Malediktus.9250 said:There is way too much trash in the BLTC. Either remove most of the trash or at least give a guaranteed scrap in a 5th chest slot with 1/25 chance for a full ticket.

The entire point is that it's mostly trash; it's lotto, not any sort of reliable way to get cool stuff.(And, with statuettes, you are guaranteed to be able to afford consolation prizes. Eventually.)

Don't spend on keys except if you really like them as entertainment.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@Malediktus.9250 said:There is way too much trash in the BLTC. Either remove most of the trash or at least give a guaranteed scrap in a 5th chest slot with 1/25 chance for a full ticket.

I got a key from map completion. Talk about LOL. I got:

1. The guaranteed trash/mat drop bag
2. The guaranteed black lion statuette
3. Two black lion statuettes
4. Revive orb

Good thing I didn't spend real money on that.

@Malediktus.9250 said:Well they started putting in stuff you cannot get any other way so you are forced to use keys

Forced?

So far, I've gotten about half the exclusive-to-BL-chest stuff I wanted without spending more than 15 min/week on keys. The BL Exclusives chest offered several skins for 400g (about the cost of 20 keys), ANet gives away some keys, some of the skins become available via the TP, and some via statuette.

Regardless, the drop rate of BL tickets and of the fluff is moot if your primary interest is in the skins exclusive to the chests. At this point, we can guess the statuette costs of items not yet available to predict just how many keys we need to buy to get specific skins. Minis & Finishers are 25st, Endless Tonics 75st, 'Packages' and weapon skins are about 60. That translates to a maximum of 2100 gems, 6300gm, or 3000gm respectively. Or, at most, in gold needed to buy the gems:

• Minis & Finishers: 525-620 gold
• Endless Tonics: 1600-1900 gold
• Packages & Skins: 750-900 gold

Those who get lucky will spend less, but most of us won't be that lucky.

If you do not like what drops from the chests, stop buying keys, whether you get the gems via cash or gold. As long as consumers are consuming, ANet has no motivation to change their approach.

@IndigoSundown.5419 said:If you do not like what drops from the chests, stop buying keys, whether you get the gems via cash or gold. As long as consumers are consuming, ANet has no motivation to change their approach.

I know Anet earns even if I buy gems with gold, but it at least it wont hurt my bank account

tl;dr

• The OP is frustrated because
• The BL chests aren't designed in a way that suits their preferred methods of acquisition.

There's nothing wrong with being frustrated since the situation is, indeed, frustrating. All the same, I don't see anything wrong with ANet offering a Lotto as the first source for some skins, especially since they eventually provide an alternative source. I'm willing to wait for a bargain; hopefully the OP can be, too.

I think we might be digressing from the original topic. The OP's initial complaint is two fold:

• The opened 50 chests and didn't receive any tickets.
• They thought the non-ticket rewards were junk, and not worth the RL currency costs.

The second point is theoretically simple: the contents have always been junk. It's a white elephant, a lotto, with big jackpots offered sparsely to up the excitement level. We should not expect anything other than junk when we open. The value is in the thrill of anticipation just before opening.

The first point is more complicated: ANet reduced the ticket drop rate in exchange for (a) adding guaranteed rewards, via BL Statuettes and (b) a corresponding increase in the drop rate of specific skin drops, currently one from Common and the other from Rare categories. That might not be to the OP's taste, but it's very consistent with the theme of BL chests (as above: junk, with a tiny chance of shinies).

Later, the OP also expresses frustration that they feel forced to buy keys to obtain specific items. That, too, is complicated. They are correct that, initially, ANet only offers the BL chest as a source for new skins, clearly to increase demand for keys. However, consistently, they have been providing an alternative & direct means to acquire those same skins. They aren't necessarily cheap and they do require waiting for 6-18 months, but so far, we get the opportunity to get them all. Again, that might not be to the OP's taste and, also again, it makes sense from ANet's point of view in maintaining a high demand for keys.

omg 50 tickets!! give me some!!! :p i have better luck. no just kidding loli opened two yesterday and got rubbish too. :P

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:tl;dr

• The OP is frustrated because
• The BL chests aren't designed in a way that suits their preferred methods of acquisition.

There's nothing wrong with being frustrated since the situation is, indeed, frustrating. All the same, I don't see anything wrong with ANet offering a Lotto as the first source for some skins, especially since they eventually provide an alternative source. I'm willing to wait for a bargain; hopefully the OP can be, too.

---

I think we might be digressing from the original topic. The OP's initial complaint is two fold:

• The opened 50 chests and didn't receive any tickets.
• They thought the non-ticket rewards were junk, and not worth the RL currency costs.

The second point is theoretically simple: the contents have always been junk. It's a white elephant, a lotto, with big jackpots offered sparsely to up the excitement level. We should not expect anything other than junk when we open. The value is in the thrill of anticipation just before opening.

The first point is more complicated: ANet reduced the ticket drop rate in exchange for (a) adding guaranteed rewards, via BL Statuettes and (b) a corresponding increase in the drop rate of specific skin drops, currently one from Common and the other from Rare categories. That might not be to the OP's taste, but it's very consistent with the theme of BL chests (as above: junk, with a tiny chance of shinies).

Later, the OP also expresses frustration that they feel forced to buy keys to obtain specific items. That, too, is complicated. They are correct that, initially, ANet only offers the BL chest as a source for new skins, clearly to increase demand for keys. However, consistently, they have been providing an alternative & direct means to acquire those same skins. They aren't necessarily cheap and they do require waiting for 6-18 months, but so far, we get the opportunity to get them all. Again, that might not be to the OP's taste and, also again, it makes sense from ANet's point of view in maintaining a high demand for keys.

It is much worse than Lotto. When playing lotto you can actually exactly calculate your chances for any price. Also the rules change the same for basically forever.Here the chances get stealth changed every few weeks without any transparency. They also never tell you when the next change happens. It might be in 2 weeks, it might be in 2 months. Probably to increase the pressure to buy keys right now.They leave us in the dark about everything. Even the rarity categories are missleading, since items in the same rarity tier have different droprates.The whole BLTC chest system is just a very predatory.

Hell even the stuff you can buy with miniature and weapon tickets or statuettes changes whenever Anet feels like it without warning,

You only have yourself to blame lootbox is always lootbox

Again, the simple story is that you should only buy BL Keys if you like the frisson of excitement you get before opening. ANet is selling an entertainment. Do not buy them expecting you'll get the stuff you want; buy stuff on the TP if/when it becomes available. Or if/when you can get it with BL Statuettes.

The odds are never going to be in your favor. It is a game designed so that the house always wins. The value is in the dream we can all have about what could happen, not in the reality of what actually drops.

@"Malediktus.9250" said:It is much worse than Lotto. When playing lotto you can actually exactly calculate your chances for any price. Also the rules change the same for basically forever.

First, mathematically, Lotto (in most states, countries) results in losing 50% of your initial investment on average. Since that includes the jackpot values, most people should expect far, far less than that.

Second, you're missing the point: lottos & bl chests don't offer "good loot," regardless of the calculation. They offer entertainment. You are going to "lose;" all we can try to measure if "how much are we losing, and how quickly."

It might be different from Lotto, but it's not all that much worse.

Here the chances get stealth changed every few weeks without any transparency. They also never tell you when the next change happens. It might be in 2 weeks, it might be in 2 months. Probably to increase the pressure to buy keys right now.Yes, of course ANet uses the same artificial scarcity and hidden schedule they use for the gem shop.

They leave us in the dark about everything. Even the rarity categories are missleading, since items in the same rarity tier have different droprates.The "categories" aren't misleading unless you aren't paying attention. The common drops drop more commonly. The super rate drops are exceedingly rare. The problem is in expecting that "common" drops are all that common.

The whole BLTC chest system is just a very predatory.Only in the sense that every lottery is, in effect, a tax on people whose dreams are bigger than their reality.

Hell even the stuff you can buy with miniature and weapon tickets or statuettes changes whenever Anet feels like it without warning,I'm not sure why you think it's likely to be any other way.

The problem is that there are so many common drop choices that it become even harder for black lion ticket scraps to drop. If Anet removed the metabolic primers, tier 5 crafting materials (so easy to get), and other junk items, the value of each chest opening would become more valuable. Removing just a few of these junk items would drastically improve the chances of getting scraps or guarantee wardrobe unlocks.

Some items deserve to be there in the common category like transmutation charges, which may not be that useful for veteran players, but are really useful for new players.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:Again, the simple story is that you should only buy BL Keys if you like the frisson of excitement you get before opening. ANet is selling an entertainment. Do not buy them expecting you'll get the stuff you want; buy stuff on the TP if/when it becomes available. Or if/when you can get it with BL Statuettes.

The odds are never going to be in your favor. It is a game designed so that the house always wins. The value is in the dream we can all have about what could happen, not in the reality of what actually drops.

---

@"Malediktus.9250" said:It is much worse than Lotto. When playing lotto you can actually exactly calculate your chances for any price. Also the rules change the same for basically forever.

Here the chances get stealth changed every few weeks without any transparency. They also never tell you when the next change happens. It might be in 2 weeks, it might be in 2 months. Probably to increase the pressure to buy keys right now.Yes, of course ANet uses the same artificial scarcity and hidden schedule they use for the gem shop.

They leave us in the dark about everything. Even the rarity categories are missleading, since items in the same rarity tier have different droprates.The "categories" aren't misleading unless you aren't paying attention. The common drops drop more commonly. The super rate drops are exceedingly rare. The problem is in expecting that "common" drops are all that common.

The whole BLTC chest system is just a very predatory.Only in the sense that every lottery is, in effect, a tax on people whose dreams are bigger than their reality.

Hell even the stuff you can buy with miniature and weapon tickets or statuettes changes whenever Anet feels like it without warning,I'm not sure why you think it's likely to be any other way.

They could easily post dates when the next changes are happening and what changes will happen (eg drop rate changes and which items are leaving). But they purposely not do that so you always feel in a hurry.