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Raid and Fractals Population Survey - Post your results


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Just wondering, based on your personal experience, out of the 100% of the gw2 population (Active players) at the moment, whats the % of population that are able to

  • Daily 3x Fractal T4s (Regardless of the Mistlock Traits)
  • Fractal 99CM (Regardless of the Mistlock Traits)
  • Fractal 100CM (Regardless of the Mistlock Traits)
  • Full Raid Clear w1-4 (At least know the mechanics, few wipes expected due to human error)
  • Full Raid Clear w5 (At least know the mechanics, few wipes expected due to human error)

Standard Full Daily 3x Fractal T4s Runs -> 30 mins, worst case scenario -> 1 hourStandard Full 99CM + 100CM Clears -> 30 mins, worst case scenario -> 1 hourStandard Full Raid Clear w1-4 -> 3 hours, worst case scenario -> 4 hoursStandard Full Raid Clear w5 -> 2 hours, worst case scenario -> 3 hours[i know everyone has different 'standards' and they aim for the best but in this case we're just applying 'worst case scenario' standard? Post your standards regardless as well before posting your % population that are able to clear the challenges]

Note 01: Please keep in mind that the higher % u give shows that you can actually PUG for a higher % without having to kick or demand them to show KP or LI, etc.Note 02: Make it clean, don't judge other people's results and just post your own experience statistics. We're all here to share experiences after all :).

Here's my statistics?(No actual professionally made survey taken but just what I thought abt anyways seeing the datas me and my team collected for a time span of 1 month)

[Copy paste this template to post your result]

Standard Full Daily 3x Fractal T4s Runs -> 30 mins, worst case scenario -> 1 hourStandard Full 99CM + 100CM Clears -> 30 mins, worst case scenario -> 1 hourStandard Full Raid Clear w1-4 -> 3 hours, worst case scenario -> 4 hoursStandard Full Raid Clear w5 -> 2 hours, worst case scenario -> 3 hours

  • Daily 3x Fractal T4s = 77% Of the entire gw2 community
  • Fractal 99CM = 50% Of the entire gw2 community
  • Fractal 100CM = 45% Of the entire gw2 community
  • Raid Clear w1-4 = 65% Of the entire gw2 community
  • Raid Clear w5 = 50% Of the entire gw2 community

Personal Comments:

[Will post the average results here - Editted from time to time]

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Standard Full Daily 3x Fractal T4s Runs -> 30 mins, worst case scenario -> 1 hourStandard Full 99CM + 100CM Clears -> 30 mins, worst case scenario -> 1 hourStandard Full Raid Clear w1-4 -> 3 hours, worst case scenario -> 4 hoursStandard Full Raid Clear w5 -> 2 hours, worst case scenario -> 3 hours

Daily 3x Fractal T4s = 10% Of the entire gw2 communityFractal 99CM = 5% Of the entire gw2 communityFractal 100CM = 5% Of the entire gw2 communityRaid Clear w1-4 = 3% Of the entire gw2 communityRaid Clear w5 = 2% Of the entire gw2 communityPersonal Comments:I'm in several pretty average guilds. About 30-40 members each of which about 10 frequently use ts (per guild). When we're running fractals, most of the time no more than 5 people are interested at all and among those 5 about 2 don't have the required agony resistance for T4. My estimate of 10% is propably still too high because only players who are somewhat invested in the game join an active guild, so the numbers in your average guild end up higher than the numbers for the entire gw2 community.

While we do raid once a weak in two of my guilds, we are far from completing every raid wing and even further from doing so within 4 hours. I believe this reflects the status of most casual guilds that run raids. If they run raids at all, that is. Without a guild, getting into raids is very difficult since pug groups require at least 150 LI and starting their own groups is a hurdle only few are willing to tackle. Not to mention the abyssmal success-rate of low-LI groups.

Edit: Here are a few graphs to support my numbers:https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.fractalLevelOnly 20% of players registered at gw2efficiency have reached fractal level 100.https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.legendaryInsightsOnly 10% of players registered at gw2efficiency have enough legendary insights to join a pug group for any raid (besides escort).https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.gaetingCrystalsOnly 10% of players registered at gw2efficiency have killed a single boss in w5.

Since only players who are somewhat engaged in the game create a gw2efficiency account, it is safe to assume that these numbers are higher than the gw2 average.

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@maddoctor.2738 said:I have a question, how do you figure the 100% of the guild wars 2 population?

Editted it to active players :)I suppose these aren't included in the list;

  • Those who registered an F2P account, reached level 80 and just leave the game thinking that they've reached the max level
  • Those who purchased HOT, reached max masteries on them (not including raid) and just leaves the game
  • Those who purchased POF, got griffin and just leaves the game
  • Those who just quit the game due to real life issues

Basically the population refers to the people who plays GW2 and are still exploring, completing achieves they've never done before in the game and such :) [Login at least once every 1 week].

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Edit: Here are a few graphs to support my numbers:https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.fractalLevelOnly 20% of players registered at gw2efficiency have reached fractal level 100.https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.legendaryInsightsOnly 10% of players registered at gw2efficiency have enough legendary insights to join a pug group for any raid (besides escort).https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.gaetingCrystalsOnly 10% of players registered at gw2efficiency have killed a single boss in w5.

Since only players who are somewhat engaged in the game create a gw2efficiency account, it is safe to assume that these numbers are higher than the gw2 average.

I was being generous abt my statistics (just to pull up the average numbers)But now I see that i'm being far too generous >_<.

Forget Raid, I thought that now it would be easy to actually T4?Back before HOT was released, we literally need a static for Fractals(Back then there wasn't even LFG tool, we had to use some website to look for group, forgot the name of the site, wondering if it still exists)

Now I thought, you can just pug it using LFG so I thought the number of peeps who can T4 has actually increased!Never did I thought it would be 20% >_<

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@Stalvros.9217 said:

@"maddoctor.2738" said:I have a question, how do you figure the 100% of the guild wars 2 population?

Editted it to active players :)I suppose these aren't included in the list;
  • Those who registered an F2P account, reached level 80 and just leave the game thinking that they've reached the max level
  • Those who purchased HOT, reached max masteries on them (not including raid) and just leaves the game
  • Those who purchased POF, got griffin and just leaves the game
  • Those who just quit the game due to real life issues

Basically the population refers to the people who plays GW2 and are still exploring, completing achieves they've never done before in the game and such :) [Login at least once every 1 week].

I think he meant how can you assume to have a survey that represents 100% of the community when you can't even be sure 1% actually answer it.

On that notion: if you really want to make a survey, make an actual survey (say on https://de.surveymonkey.com/) and try to get as many people to take it as possible. No, only the official forums does not cut it. Be on reddit, advertise in game, be on any message board which has GW2 activity. Only then and IF enough people take the survey will the results be in any way interesting or representative.

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@Cyninja.2954 said:

@"maddoctor.2738" said:I have a question, how do you figure the 100% of the guild wars 2 population?

Editted it to active players :)I suppose these aren't included in the list;
  • Those who registered an F2P account, reached level 80 and just leave the game thinking that they've reached the max level
  • Those who purchased HOT, reached max masteries on them (not including raid) and just leaves the game
  • Those who purchased POF, got griffin and just leaves the game
  • Those who just quit the game due to real life issues

Basically the population refers to the people who plays GW2 and are still exploring, completing achieves they've never done before in the game and such :) [Login at least once every 1 week].

I think he meant how can you assume to have a survey that represents 100% of the community when you can't even be sure 1% actually answer it.

On that notion: if you really want to make a survey, make an actual survey (say on
) and try to get as many people to take it as possible. No, only the official forums does not cut it. Be on reddit, advertise in game, be on any message board which has GW2 activity. Only then and IF enough people take the survey will the results be in any way interesting or representative.

I wanted to use that at first but I thought I'd use the official gw2 forum for posts cause its gw2 stuff?But yeah ok i'll post sth there too :), thanks for the reply :)

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@Stalvros.9217 said:Basically the population refers to the people who plays GW2 and are still exploring, completing achieves they've never done before in the game and such :) [Login at least once every 1 week].

And how are we supposed to count those? There is no metric that can be used to figure out the 100% of the active population (no sub), plus these forums have very very little attendance compared to the entire playerbase so your results won't be any good.

@"BunjiKugashira.9754" said:https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.gaetingCrystalsOnly 10% of players registered at gw2efficiency have killed a single boss in w5.

You can see how many killed the Soulless Horror here: https://gw2efficiency.com/account/unlock-statistics?filter.search=Souled%20Out it's 8.369%

@Stalvros.9217 said:But now I see that i'm being far too generous >_<.

The stats on gw2efficiency show how many, out of everyone that has an account, killed bosses but they don't take into account eligibility for said boss. So that 8.4% of Soulless Horror looks like a very small number. However, Hall of Chains was released with Daybreak.

This is how many finished the story of Daybreak:https://gw2efficiency.com/account/unlock-statistics?filter.search=%20The%20First%20City or 41.655%, THIS is the active gw2efficiency population when Hall of Chains was released, so these are the players that could possibly check it out. 68,178 accounts finished Daybreak, while 13,697 accounts beat the Soulless Horror, which is around 20% of the active gw2eff players at the time the Raid was released

This is why knowing what's the 100% is important. Using as 100% the total accounts of gw2efficiency isn't going to work very well. 136,914 players bought Path of Fire so are eligible for Wing 5, while out of those only 93,609 finished the story (killed Balthazar) as you can see here: https://gw2efficiency.com/account/unlock-statistics?filter.search=%20To%20Kill%20a%20God out of those 68,178 finished Daybreak.

The "100% of players" is fluctuating, both on gw2efficiency and in-game. It's not a stable number of players. When the next Raid is released if it gets 2% or even lower percentages, players might call it a failure, even though the number of active players at that point might be very very small.

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@"maddoctor.2738" said:This is how many finished the story of Daybreak:https://gw2efficiency.com/account/unlock-statistics?filter.search=%20The%20First%20City or 41.655%, THIS is the active gw2efficiency population when Hall of Chains was released, so these are the players that could possibly check it out. 68,178 accounts finished Daybreak, while 13,697 accounts beat the Soulless Horror, which is around 20% of the active gw2eff players at the time the Raid was releasedYou can't count like that. Not every active player bothers with personal story. Not every player plays LS (some just want access to the new maps, but aren't interested in story itself). Not every active player has PoF. And i'm pretty sure, that the number of players dedicated to the game, and hardcore enough to do w5, that didn't buy an expac, is negligible.

Although you're right that not all of the gw2efficiency accounts are active. I do wish there was a filtering option of minimum playtime last month for all statistics.

Still, i'm pretty sure that even taking that into consideration, gw2eff still shows the upper bound for those values, and that the percentages in actual active community are lower.

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Your survey only has the option for a positive response. Lets say (made up numbers) 500 people read your survey and 300 don’t respond because they don’t do fractals or raids. So at most out of a possible 500 responses you’ll get 200. How are you going to figure % when you only have one-half of the possible options listed and you don’t know how many could have responded but didn’t.

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Am I understanding correctly here - you're not asking us to report on whether we do Fractals/raids but to guess at what percentage of the population does them, and then you're reporting the average of those guesses?

Also, whichever it is, are you asking for people who are capable of doing this or people who actually do? I'm able to do 3 Fractal dailies but I can't remember the last time I did, because I usually have other priorities and don't bother with dailies. I have no idea if I'm able to do raid clears because I haven't tried. Various people have assured me that I could (or would only need minor changes to my build) but I've never gotten around to joining a raid group (in spite of telling myself I would 6 months ago)

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@Astralporing.1957 said:You can't count like that.

Well it's better to filter players in someway rather than getting false results using the entire number of accounts.Imagine if in a few episodes only 1000 people remain active on gw2efficiency, out of those, 10 (one raid squad) is raiding. 10 players out of the 180k gw2efficiency accounts is obviously nothing, but 10 players out of the 1000 that are still active is a much higher number. This is why I'm saying the 100% of the playerbase is relative and not a constant and should never be used as a constant. The percentage of players completing a Raid is relative to the amount of players currently active.

Not every active player bothers with personal story.

You are saying that a player that hasn't finished the story of Path of Fire is raiding? I find that really hard to believe. I can see how a PVP or WVW player might not be interested in the story at all, and not finishing it at least once, but not a raider.

In any case, episode completion rates show the downward trend in population, I don't think this trend should exclude raiders.Path of Fire: 57.193%Daybreak: 41.655%A Bug in the System: 34.864%Long Live the Lich: 26.151%

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@maddoctor.2738 said:You are saying that a player that hasn't finished the story of Path of Fire is raiding? I find that really hard to believe. I can see how a PVP or WVW player might not be interested in the story at all, and not finishing it at least once, but not a raider.

So, you're saying that you want to increase the percentage of raiders by filtering out the people that aren't likely to be raiders. Check.[/sarcasm]

Seriously, no, you can't estimate percentage of people doing a certain content, if you do prefiltering, throwing out people that are active but play in ways that make it less likely for them to be interested in said content. That's a selection bias of the worst kind.

Basically, the only preselection you could be doing is by filtering out inactives (too bad gw2eff doesn't allow for it). Anything beyond that and you run the risk of seriously contamitating the results. If you think about it for a moment, i'm sure you will realize why.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:

@maddoctor.2738 said:You are saying that a player that hasn't finished the story of Path of Fire is raiding? I find that really hard to believe. I can see how a PVP or WVW player might not be interested in the story at all, and not finishing it at least once, but not a raider.

So, you're saying that you want to increase the percentage of raiders by filtering out the people that aren't likely to be raiders. Check.[/sarcasm]

More like filtering out players who can't even access the Raid in the first place. Like those who haven't played the episode that the Raid was released at, or players that haven't even bought the expansion the Raid is on. I'm removing bias not adding bias.

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@maddoctor.2738 said:You are saying that a player that hasn't finished the story of Path of Fire is raiding? I find that really hard to believe. I can see how a PVP or WVW player might not be interested in the story at all, and not finishing it at least once, but not a raider.

So, you're saying that you want to increase the percentage of raiders by filtering out the people that aren't likely to be raiders. Check.[/sarcasm]

More like filtering out players who can't even access the Raid in the first place. Like those who haven't played the episode that the Raid was released at, or players that haven't even bought the expansion the Raid is on. I'm removing bias not adding bias.

Except that Astralporing is right. You are not filtering out those who cant access it (those who dont own PoF), you are filtering out those who probably wouldnt be interested (those who own PoF but didnt finish the story). You dont need to finish the episode the raid was released with to access the raid. In fact, you dont even need to have access to it. You just need the actual expansion. This is selection bias. If you want to know the percentage of players that raid, you have to include everyone that can do it, whether or not they are interested.

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@Joraan Adenard.2061 said:Except that Astralporing is right. You are not filtering out those who cant access it (those who dont own PoF), you are filtering out those who probably wouldnt be interested (those who own PoF but didnt finish the story). You dont need to finish the episode the raid was released with to access the raid. In fact, you dont even need to have access to it. You just need the actual expansion. This is selection bias. If you want to know the percentage of players that raid, you have to include everyone that can do it, whether or not they are interested.

And add the selection bias of including everyone that has an account? I'd rather not. Not everyone can do it, interest is irrelevant. If the overall population is dropping episode by episode, it makes sense that the decline affects Raids too. I already gave an example earlier why including everyone is biased and causes false results:

Imagine if in a few episodes only 1000 people remain active on gw2efficiency, out of those, 10 (one raid squad) is raiding. 10 players out of the 180k gw2efficiency accounts is obviously nothing, but 10 players out of the 1000 that are still active is a much higher number.

Let's get a more clear example. In your version you want to include everyone that bought Heart of Thorns when comparing Bastion of the Penitent numbers even though the Episode numbers after the release of Heart of Thorns show a very clear decline in player participation in the entire game.

Finished Heart of Thorns: 67.218%Out of the Shadows: 61.114%Rising Flames: 58.455%A Crack in the Ice: 56.374%Head of the Snake: 51.445%

Bastion of the Penitent was released with The Head of the Snake and yet you want to compare it with everyone that has bought Heart of Thorns for some obscure reason, even though there was a massive drop in player participation.

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Daily 3x Fractal T4s = 0% Of the entire gw2 communityFractal 99CM = 0% Of the entire gw2 communityFractal 100CM = 0% Of the entire gw2 communityRaid Clear w1-4 = 0% Of the entire gw2 communityRaid Clear w5 = 0% Of the entire gw2 communityPersonal Comments: This is MY experience (which was asked for); to the best of my knowledge, none in my guilds do any of this so my experience tells me it's zero percent.

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@"BunjiKugashira.9754" said:Standard Full Daily 3x Fractal T4s Runs -> 30 mins, worst case scenario -> 1 hourStandard Full 99CM + 100CM Clears -> 30 mins, worst case scenario -> 1 hourStandard Full Raid Clear w1-4 -> 3 hours, worst case scenario -> 4 hoursStandard Full Raid Clear w5 -> 2 hours, worst case scenario -> 3 hours

Daily 3x Fractal T4s = 10% Of the entire gw2 communityFractal 99CM = 5% Of the entire gw2 communityFractal 100CM = 5% Of the entire gw2 communityRaid Clear w1-4 = 3% Of the entire gw2 communityRaid Clear w5 = 2% Of the entire gw2 communityPersonal Comments:I'm in several pretty average guilds. About 30-40 members each of which about 10 frequently use ts (per guild). When we're running fractals, most of the time no more than 5 people are interested at all and among those 5 about 2 don't have the required agony resistance for T4. My estimate of 10% is propably still too high because only players who are somewhat invested in the game join an active guild, so the numbers in your average guild end up higher than the numbers for the entire gw2 community.

While we do raid once a weak in two of my guilds, we are far from completing every raid wing and even further from doing so within 4 hours. I believe this reflects the status of most casual guilds that run raids. If they run raids at all, that is. Without a guild, getting into raids is very difficult since pug groups require at least 150 LI and starting their own groups is a hurdle only few are willing to tackle. Not to mention the abyssmal success-rate of low-LI groups.

Edit: Here are a few graphs to support my numbers:https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.fractalLevelOnly 20% of players registered at gw2efficiency have reached fractal level 100.https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.legendaryInsightsOnly 10% of players registered at gw2efficiency have enough legendary insights to join a pug group for any raid (besides escort).https://gw2efficiency.com/account/statistics/statistics.gaetingCrystalsOnly 10% of players registered at gw2efficiency have killed a single boss in w5.

Since only players who are somewhat engaged in the game create a gw2efficiency account, it is safe to assume that these numbers are higher than the gw2 average.

Interestingly enough, these numbers match up well with what I see anecdotally in my guild. On average, I see between30-40 players logging on daily, with about 150-200 logging in weekly. Of those, about 12-13 raid on a regular basis ever week. I know of three that complete all raid wings, with another 2 or 3 completing just the first 4 wings. About 7-10 complete t4 fractals dailies on a regular basis.

To extend further, I see 5-10 members maxing out WvW rewards weekly and about 20-25 doing all of their daily achievements each day. Between 15-30 do guild missions every week. I only see one who does pvp regularly.

Again, these are anecdotal numbers - and I'm not saying my guild is indicative of the game as a whole. Still, the number of players show raids are - as the developers have predicted and pretty much said they want - one of the least played parts of the game by a pretty significant margin (not as bad as pvp though).

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@Joraan Adenard.2061 said:Except that Astralporing is right. You are not filtering out those who cant access it (those who dont own PoF), you are filtering out those who probably wouldnt be interested (those who own PoF but didnt finish the story). You dont need to finish the episode the raid was released with to access the raid. In fact, you dont even need to have access to it. You just need the actual expansion. This is selection bias. If you want to know the percentage of players that raid, you have to include everyone that can do it, whether or not they are interested.

And add the selection bias of including everyone that has an account? I'd rather not. Not everyone can do it, interest is irrelevant. If the overall population is dropping episode by episode, it makes sense that the decline affects Raids too. I already gave an example earlier why including everyone is biased and causes false results:

Imagine if in a few episodes only 1000 people remain active on gw2efficiency, out of those, 10 (one raid squad) is raiding. 10 players out of the 180k gw2efficiency accounts is obviously nothing, but 10 players out of the 1000 that are still active is a much higher number.

Let's get a more clear example. In your version you want to include everyone that bought Heart of Thorns when comparing Bastion of the Penitent numbers even though the Episode numbers after the release of Heart of Thorns show a very clear decline in player participation in the entire game.

Finished Heart of Thorns: 67.218%Out of the Shadows: 61.114%Rising Flames: 58.455%A Crack in the Ice: 56.374%Head of the Snake: 51.445%

Bastion of the Penitent was released with The Head of the Snake and yet you want to compare it with everyone that has bought Heart of Thorns for some obscure reason, even though there was a massive drop in player participation.

Including everyone who owns HoT isn't selection bias - it's the opposite, since it ensures your sample includes everyone who is capable of entering the raid. Anything you do to narrow that down to people you consider more likely to raid is introducing selection bias.

For example lets say you want to know what percentage of people in the world watch baseball games on TV. If you decide to only survey people who live in the USA because you're not sure baseball is shown on TV in other countries that is selection bias - before you've collected any data you're narrowing your results to those you suspect are most likely to support a desirable conclusion. (You could do it that way and present it as a survey of how many people in the USA watch baseball, but you can't apply the results to other countries.)

It's the same here. If you want to know what percentage of GW2 players raid then you need to look at all GW2 players. You could conceivably narrow it to 'active' players but that should be measured by activity overall, not type of activity - so for example you could exclude anyone who hasn't logged in since HoT was released or in the past 6 months or whatever you decide the cut-off point is to qualify as an active player.

Anything else is changing what you're surveying. You can theoretically survey anything. You could do 'what percentage of players whose main character is a female charr revenant with a predominantly blue colour scheme raid regularly', but you can't then present the results as if they apply to people whose main character is not a female charr revenant with a predominantly blue colour scheme.

Likewise you could do a survey of what percentage of players who own at least one expansion, have completed the storyline and continue to play regularly and meet whatever other metrics you think illustrate likely raider actually play raids. But that's not a survey of the percentage of GW2 players who raid - it's the percentage of your subset who raid.

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@Danikat.8537 said:Including everyone who owns HoT isn't selection bias - it's the opposite, since it ensures your sample includes everyone who is capable of entering the raid. Anything you do to narrow that down to people you consider more likely to raid is introducing selection bias.

Someone who stopped playing the game (has no progress in further episodes) is no longer capable of entering the Raid.

@Danikat.8537 said:For example lets say you want to know what percentage of people in the world watch baseball games on TV. If you decide to only survey people who live in the USA because you're not sure baseball is shown on TV in other countries that is selection bias - before you've collected any data you're narrowing your results to those you suspect are most likely to support a desirable conclusion. (You could do it that way and present it as a survey of how many people in the USA watch baseball, but you can't apply the results to other countries.)

This isn't a good example because the situation isn't similar. The population of the world, and the population that is playing the game is changing with time, it's not set in stone. In your example, you want to know what percentage of people in the world watch baseball games on TV, you track how many (at the time of the survey) are watching, then compare those with the global population of 10 years ago. This isn't going to provide very accurate results.

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Another stab at stats from GW2 Efficiency, geared towards the OP's questions. Next to each, I've identified the proxy used to estimate the stat.

  • Daily 3x Fractal T4s = no good proxy (bad proxy: 1.8% Fractal Savant title; it's an underestimate, but pretty much everyone who gets it has had to do a lot of T4 dailies), so it's somewhere between 2 and 18%
  • Fractal 99CM = (no good proxy), but less than 18% (bad proxy: The Unclean title ... anyone who has beaten 99CM had to beat 99 regular)
  • Fractal 100CM = 8% (Mind Out of Time is exactly having beaten Fractal 100CM, or having paid for it.)
  • Raid Clear w1-4 = 13.8% (proxy: Deimos, on the basis that it gives groups the most trouble)
  • Raid Clear w5 = 5.7% (proxy: What's Death May Never Die achievement)

So as a rough guess, without accounting for how GW2/E results are skewed, I'd say that about 14% of the population has gone "all in" on raiding, and about a third have gone on to Wing 5. (That, or... the population of people raiding is declining, so there are lots of inactive raiders who haven't played much since W5 dropped.)

Similarly, just over 18% of players have gone "all in" on fractals, and just under half are in the elite who can handle CM. (or, again, that there was a huge decline in numbers).

Some other useful proxies:


Disclaimer: GW2 Efficiency has stats on a lot of things. We know that it doesn't reflect the true population, but we don't know in which direction it might be skewed nor by how much. People presume that the stats include people who are more DPS- and/or gold-acquisition-oriented, but I know lots of people with accounts who don't care about either; they use it to hunt achievements or find lost items.

I think all we can say for sure is: it doesn't reflect the true population. But all the same, it's a lot better than just guessing.

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@Danikat.8537 said:

@"Joraan Adenard.2061" said:Except that Astralporing is right. You are not filtering out those who cant access it (those who dont own PoF), you are filtering out those who probably wouldnt be interested (those who own PoF but didnt finish the story). You dont need to finish the episode the raid was released with to access the raid. In fact, you dont even need to have access to it. You just need the actual expansion. This is selection bias. If you want to know the percentage of players that raid, you have to include everyone that can do it, whether or not they are interested.

And add the selection bias of including everyone that has an account? I'd rather not. Not everyone can do it, interest is irrelevant. If the overall population is dropping episode by episode, it makes sense that the decline affects Raids too. I already gave an example earlier why including everyone is biased and causes false results:

Imagine if in a few episodes only 1000 people remain active on gw2efficiency, out of those, 10 (one raid squad) is raiding. 10 players out of the 180k gw2efficiency accounts is obviously nothing, but 10 players out of the 1000 that are still active is a much higher number.

Let's get a more clear example. In your version you want to include everyone that bought Heart of Thorns when comparing Bastion of the Penitent numbers even though the Episode numbers after the release of Heart of Thorns show a very clear decline in player participation in the entire game.

Finished Heart of Thorns: 67.218%Out of the Shadows: 61.114%Rising Flames: 58.455%A Crack in the Ice: 56.374%Head of the Snake: 51.445%

Bastion of the Penitent was released with The Head of the Snake and yet you want to compare it with everyone that has bought Heart of Thorns for some obscure reason, even though there was a massive drop in player participation.

Including everyone who owns HoT isn't selection bias - it's the opposite, since it ensures your sample includes everyone who is capable of entering the raid. Anything you do to narrow that down to people you consider more likely to raid is introducing selection bias.

For example lets say you want to know what percentage of people in the world watch baseball games on TV. If you decide to only survey people who live in the USA because you're not sure baseball is shown on TV in other countries that is selection bias - before you've collected any data you're narrowing your results to those you suspect are most likely to support a desirable conclusion. (You could do it that way and present it as a survey of how many people in the USA watch baseball, but you can't apply the results to other countries.)

It's the same here. If you want to know what percentage of GW2 players raid then you need to look at all GW2 players. You could conceivably narrow it to 'active' players but that should be measured by activity overall, not type of activity - so for example you could exclude anyone who hasn't logged in since HoT was released or in the past 6 months or whatever you decide the cut-off point is to qualify as an active player.

Anything else is changing what you're surveying. You can theoretically survey anything. You could do 'what percentage of players whose main character is a female charr revenant with a predominantly blue colour scheme raid regularly', but you can't then present the results as if they apply to people whose main character is not a female charr revenant with a predominantly blue colour scheme.

Likewise you could do a survey of what percentage of players who own at least one expansion, have completed the storyline and continue to play regularly and meet whatever other metrics you think illustrate likely raider actually play raids. But that's not a survey of the percentage of GW2 players who raid - it's the percentage of your subset who raid.

The survey is about the entire gw2community, not just the subset of the gw2 community that owns HoT. If you want to exclude people who don't own HoT and thus can't enter raids, you still have to change the fundamental set you're looking at.

It's like limiting your survey to find out the percentage of people in the world who watch baseball only to people who have access to a TV in the first place. You will get the percentage of people who have access to a TV worldwide that watch baseball, but you will NOT get the percentage of people worldwide that watch baseball. Unless you refuse to accept everyone who doesn't have access to a TV as a person, but I believe the generally accepted definition of "people" doesn't do that.

That's why it's important to know who is included in the definition of "gw2 community". I can get behind the idea to only include active players (with activity being purely measured by last login), but I have my problems with excluding everyone who doesn't own either expansion or didn't finish the story.

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