Opening 500 Black Lion Chest - 10.000 Gold (Video & Result)

Hi, I opened few days ago 500 Black Lion Chest thanks to the BLK Discount.Here are the results, enjoy ! I costed me 10.000G, I get back 3.000G (+ about 6.000g from skin unlock)Not worth it, but it was expected.

You can see all the result at 30 min, if you want to skip.Enjoy !

You could get 2 chak infusions.Its all rng

Thanks for your sacrifice. :P

Thank you for helping others see that gambling is not the answer to their needs.

Yes, exchanging gold for Key is not worth it, even with the -30% on key, unless you are really lucky.Out of 10 BLK try (with at least 100 chest), it was REALLY worth it only once (insane loot with permanent contract)But unless you got a very rare loot, or unless you want to unlock ALL skins, you can be sure you will lose money.

Got a random key to drop for me today, so yay. I went and opened a chest from my bank, and received Transmutation Charges and a T5 crafting bag. That's the 7th key I've used since the new BL chest, and the 3rd time I've received mute charges and crafting mats. Every time I use a key it only reinforces for me why I will never spend currency of any kind on them.

EDIT: also, watching those Guaranteed unlocks giving you skins for jewelcrafters backpacks and skins you could choose from creating a revenant character just feels bad.

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:

EDIT: also, watching those Guaranteed unlocks giving you skins for jewelcrafters backpacks and skins you could choose from creating a revenant character just feels bad.

Then craft them before you use guaranteed unlocks. No way that I'm going to let a simple skin that's easy to obtain have a chance to show up through a guaranteed unlock. Karma skins, craftable skins, etc. I unlocked all of them before ever opening one of those wardrobe unlocks, so they will never be a waste for me.

@"Lasiurus.4067" said:You can see all the result at 30 min, if you want to skip.

! >

tl;dr

• No Super Rares
• 17 Rare drops
• 28 Uncommon drops
• 9 weapons from rare, 20 from uncommon

Full Results

Guaranteed (500x2)

• BL Statuettes 500
• Gnashblade Zephyrite Supply Box 500

Common

! BL Statuettes (2-4) 98 (~33 drops)! BL Lockbreaker Kit 23! BL Miniature Claim 33! BL Ticket Scrap 69! BL commemorative coin ? (OP hid that part of inventory)! BL Material Bag: Istan 41! Dye Kits 177 (blue shift 55, lion's arch survivor's 44, primordus 45, taimi's dye kit 33)! Primers 33 (17 utility, 16 metabolic)! Revive Orb 75! Self-style Hair Kit 48! toy mini egg 42! Transmutation 345 (69 drops)! Upgrade Extractor 59! Guaranteed armor unlock 19! Guaranteed wardrobe unlock 36! Guaranteed weapon unlock 24! heavy crafting 104 (52 drops)! large crafting bag 110 (55 drops)! Teleport to Friend 73! Tyrian exchange voucher 24

Uncommon (28)

! Cavalier Skins 20! Total Makeover Kit 8! * Jeweled Scarab Package, Storm Dagger, Mini Awakened 0 (unclear if any/all were already unlocked; they drop only once per account) (this won't make any difference in the total uncommon)

Rare (17+ drops)

! Fused weapon 9! Glyphs 2 (one of each)! BL Statuettes (listed under common, otherwise I'd have to spend > 30 minutes watching plus documenting)! Black Lion Tickets 5! * home node 2 (omnom, hard wood)

Notes from Documentation

• The actual results are at 28:40. The OP then uses statuttes to buy Golden BL Keys, without first unlocking skins. I didn't continue to watch to see what more was added.
• Part of the inventory was hidden, so it's not possible to see how many Commemorative Coins dropped, at least not at 28:40 or 30:00
• The OP might have gotten some drops of 25x BL Statutettes, but after watching at double-speed for 10 minutes, I ran out of time.
• Impossible to tell if the OP was unlucky for the account unlocks, because those only drop once per account and the OP might already have received them.
• In case it's not obvious, these were opened before Tuesday's update; they used the Zephyrite/Four Winds set of drops.

PS Thanks to OP for posting the video.PPS I've updated the uncommon/cavalier counts by two; thanks to comment by OP, I rewatched to confirm the numbers and discovered a hidden '3' on the torch — I only counted it as one drop before.

Analysis

Although 500 is too few drops to be absolutely sure, it appears that 91% of the drops are Common. Accordingly...

If 100 people open 25 chests each, then...

• Only about 18 people will get above average loot, i.e. four or more Uncommon or better drops.
• And roughly 60 will have below average loot:
  • ~9 will get only Common drops; no Uncommon, no Rare
  • ~23 will get just one Uncommon or better drop
  • ~28 will get exactly two Uncommon or better drops
• And of course, none of them will get a Super Rare drop.

In other words, don't expect the loot you want from opening just 2100 gems worth of chests.Opening the chests can be fun; it's not worth opening them for any other reason.

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@"Lasiurus.4067" said:You can see all the result at 30 min, if you want to skip.

! >

tl;dr

• No Super Rares
• 17
  Rare
  drops
• 26
  Uncommon
  drops
• 9 weapons from rare, 18 from uncommon

• BL Statuettes 500
• Gnashblade Zephyrite Supply Box 500

!

BL Statuettes (2-4) 98 (~33 drops)!

BL Lockbreaker Kit 23!

BL Miniature Claim 33!

BL Ticket Scrap 69!

BL commemorative coin ? (OP hid that part of inventory)!

BL Material Bag: Istan 41!

Dye Kits 177 (blue shift 55, lion's arch survivor's 44, primordus 45, taimi's dye kit 33)!

Primers 33 (17 utility, 16 metabolic)!

Revive Orb 75!

Self-style Hair Kit 48!

toy mini egg 42!

Transmutation 345 (69 drops)!

Upgrade Extractor 59!

Guaranteed armor unlock 19!

Guaranteed wardrobe unlock 36!

Guaranteed weapon unlock 24!

heavy crafting 104 (52 drops)!

large crafting bag 110 (55 drops)!

Teleport to Friend 73!

Tyrian exchange voucher 24

!

Cavalier Skins 18!

Total Makeover Kit 8! * Jeweled Scarab Package, Storm Dagger, Mini Awakened 0 (unclear if any/all were already unlocked; they drop only once per account)

!

Fused weapon 9!

Glyphs 2 (one of each)!

BL Statuettes (listed under common, otherwise I'd have to spend > 30 minutes watching plus documenting)!

Black Lion Tickets 5! * home node 2 (omnom, hard wood)

• The actual results are at 28:40. The OP then uses statuttes to buy Golden BL Keys, without first unlocking skins. I didn't continue to watch to see what more was added.
• Part of the inventory was hidden, so it's not possible to see how many Commemorative Coins dropped, at least not at 28:40 or 30:00
• The OP might have gotten some drops of 25x BL Statutettes, but after watching at double-speed for 10 minutes, I ran out of time.
• Impossible to tell if the OP was unlucky for the account unlocks, because those only drop once per account and the OP might already have received them.
• In case it's not obvious, these were opened before Tuesday's update; they used the Zephyrite/Four Winds set of drops.

Thanks so much for this analysis !But I obtained 30 Cavalier Weapon ( a lot of them are x2 x3 or even x4 :) )

@Lasiurus.4067 said:Thanks so much for this analysis !But I obtained 30 Cavalier Weapon ( a lot of them are x2 x3 or even x4 :) )You're counting at the 30min mark; I'm counting at 28:40.

For your video, it's appropriate to include golden keys, because you're interested in how well you did with the skins. For my analysis, I'm only interested in what drops from standard keys, and I don't want to mix/match the golden keys. That's for two reasons: first, 18 is too few to analyze and more importantly, not everyone is going to spend their statuettes on golden keys. At a cost of 50 statuettes each, there are other things that people might want.

That said, I did miss two in my counting, because I can't see the number on the torch (the very last one). I had to rewatch much of the video to count them.(I've updated the numbers above accordingly.)

Detailed breakdown

At 28:40 (before you used your Golden Keys), I count only 20.

! Top row: 7 cavalier skins (2+3+2)! Second row: 6 c-skins (1+1+1+2+1)! Third row: 0 c-skins! Fourth row: 1 c-skin! * Fifth row: 6 c-skins (3+3) (I originally miscounted the torch as 1 because the number is obscured by the icon)

It's only after you used the golden keys that you ended up with 30

! First: 11 (2+3+2+4)! Second: 11 (1+3+3+3+1)! Third: 0! Fourth: 1! * Fifth: 7 (3+4)