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What are you going to do with your ToT bags?


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I've sold most of them this first week, save for the stack I saved from last year as a fun way to celebrate the festival return and a few odds and ends for the daily or to make the number I was selling more aesthetically pleasing to me. As the price falls, I'm more willing to open more of them, and I'll probably buy up a couple stacks once they seem to have bottomed out: one stack to open when the festival returns next year, and one to sell when the price gets high enough. I use some of the consumables, and I find it fun to see if I get a lucky drop, so I do open about half, give or take. I never open them just for candy corn, because if that's my primary goal, it's much more cost effective to sell the bags and buy the cobs. (Usually the cobs are the better price, but I always check to be sure and sometimes save a few silver buying pieces.)

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Looking at prices on GW2 Spidy and my own experience with selling ToT bags I'd guess there's roughly the same number of people not only opening their own but buying more as there are people selling them. The price jumped up when Halloween started, then dropped quite rapidly and now seems to be stabilising, which suggests early on demand exceeded supply as people were buying them up to get a headstart on new/rare drops before farming had really kicked in and now supply is slightly exceeding demand. My guess is the price will continue to drop slowly until the end of the festival, then increase slightly in the last few days as people get bored farming them and become more willing to buy them for a last chance at rare drops.

Although the long-term trends are very interesting to me. According to GW2 Spidy the price of ToT bags had risen steadily from October 2012 when they were introduced to October 2015 (with only small increases in price at Halloween). Then in 2015 they shot up in price, reaching a peak in July 2016 and then the price crashed - starting in July, not October. Halloween 2016 doesn't even show on the graph - the drop continued at roughly the same rate as before and after. Then it's been fairly steady at about the same as the 2015 price ever since.

That looked very weird to me. Normally I'd expect the price to spike at the start of each Halloween when people buy them up for new drops, drop throughout the festival then rise slowly through the rest of the year when people are buying them occasionally and no new ones are entering the market, which is what happened in 2013 and 2014. I'm not sure what happened in 2015 to change that so drastically.

My first guess was the introduction and subsequent removal and then nerf of Maize Balm, but that doesn't fit - it was introduced in 2014, wasn't in the bags in 2015 and was changed to reduce the drops in late 2015 or early 2016, so it doesn't fit the pattern. Likewise Infusions, mini pets and other rare drops were first introduced in 2014. I can't work out what was introduced in Halloween 2015 and removed or changed in July 2016 to cause such a huge change in price.

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@Danikat.8537 said:I can't work out what was introduced in Halloween 2015 and removed or changed in July 2016 to cause such a huge change in price.

The portal scrolls? Those seem like the sort of thing that might have generated a lot of early demand (cobs were needed to buy Essences of Halloween to make the Mystic Chests for the ingredients to make the scrolls) and then only trickles once the first rush at them was over.

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I just opened 3.5k of mine, with a solid MF number. I got literally nothing. Just enough for about 15 cobs, which since the bags were worth about 200g means I was effectively paying about 13g a cob. No infusions, no minis, no equipment. A handful of T6 mats, from memory about 20 or 30. The drop rates on these damn things are just pathetic. You have to rely on hitting some kind of lottery style jackpot to get any sort of return at all.

I will be selling my bags from now on, and using the money to buy cobs. I can't see it makes sense to do anything else.

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