LS4E5 and Wintersday Release Date Speculations — Guild Wars 2 Forums

LS4E5 and Wintersday Release Date Speculations

Ayrilana.1396Ayrilana.1396 Member ✭✭✭✭
edited November 6, 2018 in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

LS4E5: 11/27/18
Wintersday: 12/11/18

I based episode five on the black lion store release cycle and under the assumption that it wouldn’t release concurrently with Wintersday. We could end up waiting until next year though.

Wintersday’s date is based off previous years.

Thoughts?

Edit: Wintersday will likely end on 1/8 but I don’t see them releasing the episode then. If it doesn’t release this month then I see 1/22 being the next best date.

<1

Comments

  • Randulf.7614Randulf.7614 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 5, 2018

    Wintersday seems a a good guess. I'm not expecting next episode until after that finishes, so anything before I will put down as a bonus. I want as little as possible to distract me from Smash Bros anyway...

    What sleep is here? What dreams there are in the unctuous coiling of the snakes mortal shuffling. weapon in my hand. My hand the arcing deathblow at the end of all things. The horror. The horror. I embrace it. . .

  • Fenom.9457Fenom.9457 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I agree. And we will get E5 in November since it won’t come out with winters day or lunar new year, and February is WAY too long from episode 4

    HARRY! DIDYA PUT YER NAME IN DA GOBLET OF FIYAH?!

  • Ajaxx.3157Ajaxx.3157 Member ✭✭✭

    Jan 2019. Thinking any date this year for the next Ep is OMEGALUL

  • moonboi.1764moonboi.1764 Member ✭✭✭

    @Ajaxx.3157 said:
    Jan 2019. Thinking any date this year for the next Ep is...

    I agree. I honestly don’t have time due to holidays and want to focus on Wintersday. I’m pretty happy with the fact that it’s not going to happen until next year. It would be way too rush, coming out in a few week.

  • Ayrilana.1396Ayrilana.1396 Member ✭✭✭✭

    It coming out at the end of the month wouldn’t necessarily mean that it was rushed. The team that is doing this episode is likely the same that did episode 2 which was released 8 months ago.

  • Danikat.8537Danikat.8537 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I certainly won't complain if it comes out in November but in all honestly I probably wouldn't play it until January even if it did. I have too much other stuff to do - both in GW2 and in general - for a new story right now.

    "Hard knocks, bad luck, been knocked down,
    You got back up, rise up, shine on, keep on fighting, the war is almost done...But then I hear you're gone.
    I feel, when the lights go down, you are still here, all you hold dear remains.
    Your star never fades."

  • Pifil.5193Pifil.5193 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I'm hoping it will be sometime in November/early December. If it comes out in January it would be about 5 months after Episode 4's release (as the first likely release date would be the 16th of January).

    I hope they won't have another 4+month break in the LS.

  • Fenom.9457Fenom.9457 Member ✭✭✭✭

    Remember episode 1 came out in November after PoF in September. This year, the last LW release was also in September.

    HARRY! DIDYA PUT YER NAME IN DA GOBLET OF FIYAH?!

  • ProtoGunner.4953ProtoGunner.4953 Member ✭✭✭✭

    The releases are getting fewer and fewer, LS1 almost every two weeks, LS2: about every 1-2 months, LS3: every two months: LS4, every three months (actually 4 releases in one whole year now). And they aren't even releasing a new expansion next year. One wonders why they release fewer and fewer stuff.

  • We really can't say what will be/has been released next year until next year is over.

  • Ashantara.8731Ashantara.8731 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Pifil.5193 said:
    I'm hoping it will be sometime in November/early December.

    With the Roller Beetle Race tracks released this week, there goes our hope for a new episode before next year.

  • Klypto.1703Klypto.1703 Member ✭✭✭

    I am kinda hoping they would make some wintersday events like they had in the original game that were very fun. Its just this game needs some with lots of players doing them together to make it work. Plus who doesn't like having yellow snow as a weapon cus its the best weapon ever!

  • Randulf.7614Randulf.7614 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 29, 2018

    @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    The releases are getting fewer and fewer, LS1 almost every two weeks, LS2: about every 1-2 months, LS3: every two months: LS4, every three months (actually 4 releases in one whole year now). And they aren't even releasing a new expansion next year. One wonders why they release fewer and fewer stuff.

    But amount and quality of production is greater. Ls1 had fence mending, festivals and occasionally we got a big fight, but very little story. And no maps. It put out very little very often

    Ls2 had 2 maps each staggered in 3 bits.

    Ls3 is a more accurate comparison, altho on a production level, ls4 clearly is a bit higher. Whether that has proved it to be a better season I am on the fence with tho

    What sleep is here? What dreams there are in the unctuous coiling of the snakes mortal shuffling. weapon in my hand. My hand the arcing deathblow at the end of all things. The horror. The horror. I embrace it. . .

  • @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    The releases are getting fewer and fewer, LS1 almost every two weeks, LS2: about every 1-2 months, LS3: every two months: LS4, every three months (actually 4 releases in one whole year now). And they aren't even releasing a new expansion next year. One wonders why they release fewer and fewer stuff.

    You also get a ton more content in the current living world story episodes compared to before, and full scale maps. If they cut the maps and just did story in random zones i'm sure we could get it every few weeks, I prefer the former personally~

  • flog.3485flog.3485 Member ✭✭✭
    edited November 29, 2018

    @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    The releases are getting fewer and fewer, LS1 almost every two weeks, LS2: about every 1-2 months, LS3: every two months: LS4, every three months (actually 4 releases in one whole year now). And they aren't even releasing a new expansion next year. One wonders why they release fewer and fewer stuff.

    LS3 also started 9 months after the release of Hot.....With no big meta event like LS4 episode 1.
    Also in season 4, maps need to be created with mounts in mind while the episodes 1 and 4 also provide a complete new set of weapons and a complete new set of armor.

    Sorry there is no way they release fewer stuff now.

    Edit : as for the topic at hand, the next release is due to happen for early february imo.

  • Ashantara.8731Ashantara.8731 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @flog.3485 said:
    Edit : as for the topic at hand, the next release is due to happen for early february imo.

    Please no! That would be too long a wait. I am already bored as it is.

  • @flog.3485 said:

    @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    The releases are getting fewer and fewer, LS1 almost every two weeks, LS2: about every 1-2 months, LS3: every two months: LS4, every three months (actually 4 releases in one whole year now). And they aren't even releasing a new expansion next year. One wonders why they release fewer and fewer stuff.

    LS3 also started 9 months after the release of Hot.....With no big meta event like LS4 episode 1.
    Also in season 4, maps need to be created with mounts in mind while the episodes 1 and 4 also provide a complete new set of weapons and a complete new set of armor.

    Sorry there is no way they release fewer stuff now.

    Edit : as for the topic at hand, the next release is due to happen for early february imo.

    That would run into Lunar New Year. I very much hope we get 4.5 before that!

  • ProtoGunner.4953ProtoGunner.4953 Member ✭✭✭✭

    Can't imagine February, that would be one of the longest content droughts (besides post-HoT).

  • Zaraki.5784Zaraki.5784 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 30, 2018

    @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    Can't imagine February, that would be one of the longest content droughts (besides post-HoT).

    Indeed, even mid-January is quite long (4 months) but it can't be helped cause of Christmas holidays and Wintersday :/

    "Sticks and stones may break your bones but words will never be able to injure you!"
    The Grim Adventures of Billy & Mandy

  • Ardid.7203Ardid.7203 Member ✭✭✭✭

    SCRUM model, IMO.
    More but smaller updates, big updates once they are really done, everything they create in the meanwhile becomes some sort of new tiny gimmick that is not very meaningful but still fun and fully playable.

  • Blocki.4931Blocki.4931 Member ✭✭✭✭

    They wouldn't give us the small teaser with Caithe if the release was 3 months off. The beetle stuff isn't going to delay any actual release

    Smugly chuckling forever.
    My sentence doesn't make sense? Well, I probably forgot to write half of it before posting.

  • flog.3485flog.3485 Member ✭✭✭

    @Tanner Blackfeather.6509 said:

    @flog.3485 said:

    @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    The releases are getting fewer and fewer, LS1 almost every two weeks, LS2: about every 1-2 months, LS3: every two months: LS4, every three months (actually 4 releases in one whole year now). And they aren't even releasing a new expansion next year. One wonders why they release fewer and fewer stuff.

    LS3 also started 9 months after the release of Hot.....With no big meta event like LS4 episode 1.
    Also in season 4, maps need to be created with mounts in mind while the episodes 1 and 4 also provide a complete new set of weapons and a complete new set of armor.

    Sorry there is no way they release fewer stuff now.

    Edit : as for the topic at hand, the next release is due to happen for early february imo.

    That would run into Lunar New Year. I very much hope we get 4.5 before that!

    Well deep down I very hope so that I am wrong but my guts tell me otherwise anyway so....Guess we will have to see !

  • Dami.5046Dami.5046 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 30, 2018

    Not expecting the next season this year. why? Because who wants the headache of it not working/server crashes/moaners on the run up to the holidays when everyone will be powering down.

    Hope to proven wrong, mind.

  • ProtoGunner.4953ProtoGunner.4953 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I just can't imagine that they wait for five months to release new content. It's just too few. Anyways, for my part I finally chose to go on hiatus and play all the single player games I wanted to play: Final Fantasy XIII-2, Final Fantasy XV, Undertale on the Switch, Darksiders 3 atm. I am excited for Holiday.

  • Fenom.9457Fenom.9457 Member ✭✭✭✭

    Lol can’t believe Battlefront 2 is not only doing better than this game, but I’m even considering leaving this one for months, maybe the foreseeable future because of this kitten release rate

    HARRY! DIDYA PUT YER NAME IN DA GOBLET OF FIYAH?!

  • The release schedule for the LW is always a crapshoot. It'll arrive when it does and no amount of threats will make them work any faster.

    I'm hoping wintersday and the LW get released on the same day. What a nice cluster that would be :+1:

  • cptaylor.2670cptaylor.2670 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Blockhead Magee.3092 said:
    The release schedule for the LW is always a crapshoot. It'll arrive when it does and no amount of threats will make them work any faster.

    I'm hoping wintersday and the LW get released on the same day. What a nice cluster that would be :+1:

    I was hoping we would go to Deldrimor with Wintersday release and get that spider mount after all. :( Explore some dwarves ruins and such.

    But I’m guessing the Caithe thing was just to show that they are working in the episode and it’s probably going to be February. I guess the next expansion is coming in 2023. 😵

  • Ashantara.8731Ashantara.8731 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    Can't imagine February, that would be one of the longest content droughts (besides post-HoT).

    I agree but am afraid it might take even longer than that. :/

  • cptaylor.2670cptaylor.2670 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Ashantara.8731 said:

    @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    Can't imagine February, that would be one of the longest content droughts (besides post-HoT).

    I agree but am afraid it might take even longer than that. :/

    And we presumably have another episode of this season after that one. Which means season 5 would start around summer. At their current release schedule it would be 2 years of season 5. They did mention something about releasing stuff normally saved for expansions in season 5. But I doubt it will be elite specs or larger quantities of maps. If they released elite specs I’d be fine with the pace of season 5 taking that long but I’m just not sure that would happen.

    They can add more mounts but outside of a water mount, maybe wall crawling spider, and a real flying mount I can’t think of too many options left. A multi seater? So the new features would probably be more suns refuge style content. I don’t have high hopes for player housing coming in either.

  • Can we now call living story officially dead story?

  • Dante.1763Dante.1763 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @EthanLightheart.9168 said:
    Can we now call living story officially dead story?

    Why, cause they havent released an episode yet, even though they are still on schedule?

    LWS4E4 dropped September 18th, Its been two full months, itll be three full months on December 18th. Youll probably get the next episode in January after the wintersday festival. The Caithe Teaser they just added to the game wouldnt have been added if they werent getting close to finishing the next episode.

    Ember Wandertooth(SB), Lucina Fallenflame(Weaver), Kianda Redpaw(Guardian), Kingslayer, Light in the Dark.
    Why Guild Wars is called Guild Wars

  • Ashen.2907Ashen.2907 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @EthanLightheart.9168 said:
    Can we now call living story officially dead story?

    Its not overdue yet is it?

  • Tyson.5160Tyson.5160 Member ✭✭✭✭

    Given that Wintersday is next week, most likely Ep 5 will be January, which is alright because that leaves the Season Finale in spring with the Season 5 starting later in spring.

  • Ayrilana.1396Ayrilana.1396 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 4, 2018

    Or it’s just a new beetle track

    Edit: Whoops. Responded here instead of on reddit. It looks like we may get a beetle race. Just my speculation based on like 2 secs of the video.

  • cptaylor.2670cptaylor.2670 Member ✭✭✭✭

    "Check our official channels each weekday through December 19 for fun surprises!"

    This is interesting. I wonder what fun surprises they could be talking about. Or is that text there every time this rolls around?

  • TheOrlyFactor.8341TheOrlyFactor.8341 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 4, 2018

    Are those surprises story updates?

    Asura fanatic.
    World's largest Zojja fan.
    Illconceived Was Na fanboy.

  • Hybarf Tics.2048Hybarf Tics.2048 Member ✭✭✭
    edited December 5, 2018

    @ProtoGunner.4953 said:
    The releases are getting fewer and fewer, LS1 almost every two weeks, LS2: about every 1-2 months, LS3: every two months: LS4, every three months (actually 4 releases in one whole year now). And they aren't even releasing a new expansion next year. One wonders why they release fewer and fewer stuff.

    Exactly back then it took 3 releases a total of 6 weeks to even get half of what we get now but at least we had new stuff every 2 weeks.
    What I liked about it was more cliffhanger and more speculation. The way things are moving we will soon see our first 4 months frank'in insanely supra mega long release date. What else did you people think you were gonna get? A living story episode fore Christmas? What planet are you living on? To think my friend is wondering why I only do daily and not even every day, well maybe the release windows are too few and getting insanely supra mega long in between. Episode 5 before Christmas, we still have the 11th or 18th, what do you think your chances are? Maybe just maybe Anet in it's great wisdom thought you would rather get a rinse and repeat winter's day instead. If we don't get before Christmas I'll see you guys on Assassin's Creed Origin. B)

  • Inculpatus cedo.9234Inculpatus cedo.9234 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 5, 2018

    @cptaylor.2670 said:
    "Check our official channels each weekday through December 19 for fun surprises!"

    This is interesting. I wonder what fun surprises they could be talking about. Or is that text there every time this rolls around?

    Well, the first one (today's) was a snippet video; I did see something I'd not seen before, not sure what it is, though.

  • Eloc Freidon.5692Eloc Freidon.5692 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I can't wait for the update to come out on the 2-3 months time schedule and prove all these naysayers wrong. Again.

  • Eloc Freidon.5692Eloc Freidon.5692 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @cptaylor.2670 said:
    "Check our official channels each weekday through December 19 for fun surprises!"

    This is interesting. I wonder what fun surprises they could be talking about. Or is that text there every time this rolls around?

    What are you quoting from?

  • Rasimir.6239Rasimir.6239 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Eloc Freidon.5692 said:

    @cptaylor.2670 said:
    "Check our official channels each weekday through December 19 for fun surprises!"

    This is interesting. I wonder what fun surprises they could be talking about. Or is that text there every time this rolls around?

    What are you quoting from?

    https://guildwars2.com/en/news/wintersday-arrives-next-week/

  • Susy.7529Susy.7529 Member ✭✭✭

    @Eloc Freidon.5692 said:
    I can't wait for the update to come out on the 2-3 months time schedule and prove all these naysayers wrong. Again.

    Despite I'd love you to be right, it's impossible, they won't overlap Wintersday with LS5.

  • Kunzaito.8169Kunzaito.8169 Member ✭✭✭

    Man, I know that it's forums on the internet so people are gonna complain about everything, but man people freaking complain about everything. Back in LS1 people whined that the updates were too small and they wanted new maps and more new stuff to do. So now you get new maps with new metas and stories and achievements and adventures and races and griffon courses and currencies and it takes a little longer... and people STILL complain.

    What do you expect, a new map every month with a new mount and new elite specs all perfectly polished and balanced for free? Feels like no matter HOW fast they release content the complainers will burn through the parts they are interested in as fast as possible then complain that it wasn't good enough, wasn't long enough, or they want more.

    I play every day for a few hours a day and have 35,000 achievement points and there's STILL tons of stuff I don't have time to get to. I haven't even done most of the PoF stuff.

    Now, let's get Wintersday here so I can throw some snowballs at people. :D

  • The News Blog.

  • ProtoGunner.4953ProtoGunner.4953 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Kunzaito.8169 said:
    Man, I know that it's forums on the internet so people are gonna complain about everything, but man people freaking complain about everything. Back in LS1 people whined that the updates were too small and they wanted new maps and more new stuff to do. So now you get new maps with new metas and stories and achievements and adventures and races and griffon courses and currencies and it takes a little longer... and people STILL complain.

    What do you expect, a new map every month with a new mount and new elite specs all perfectly polished and balanced for free? Feels like no matter HOW fast they release content the complainers will burn through the parts they are interested in as fast as possible then complain that it wasn't good enough, wasn't long enough, or they want more.

    I play every day for a few hours a day and have 35,000 achievement points and there's STILL tons of stuff I don't have time to get to. I haven't even done most of the PoF stuff.

    Now, let's get Wintersday here so I can throw some snowballs at people. :D

    Well, it's not even an expansion on the horizon. That's why people are annoyed. I go play some single player games anyway.

  • Ashantara.8731Ashantara.8731 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Susy.7529 said:
    Despite I'd love you to be right, it's impossible, they won't overlap Wintersday with LS5.

    On the other hand, it would make for the best possible Wintersday present for the players. :)

  • TheOrlyFactor.8341TheOrlyFactor.8341 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 8, 2018

    @Ashantara.8731 said:

    @Susy.7529 said:
    Despite I'd love you to be right, it's impossible, they won't overlap Wintersday with LS5.

    On the other hand, it would make for the best possible Wintersday present for the players. :)

    I mean, it would be nice if that happened but look at how many bugs and such come with a new Living World release, especially after what happened with Episode 3. If I recall right, Anet takes off on holidays so no one would be around to patch and fix those. The forums would be in an uproar with a bunch of "lel broken gaem Anet no how 2 code" threads/posts and nothing would get fixed/resolved until they came back from the holiday season.

    I think Anet is playing it safe with waiting until January to release Episode 5. While I don't like it and I'm gonna play other things until then, I understand why they're likely doing things this way.

    Asura fanatic.
    World's largest Zojja fan.
    Illconceived Was Na fanboy.

  • I'm going with March since in all of GW2's history there was only 1 episode released in the 2nd of December, 1 episode in 13th of January and 1 in 8th of February. Every episode date I just listed was from Season 2 and ANET wants to avoid even remembering the Season 2 cadence to the point that they'd make random events with no story impact just to give themselves more dev time. That's why we got that mail that lead nowhere fast since the next map has huge swaths of land to pick from. And honestly, if they pick Maga Coast/Sunward Marches as their next map they'd have to program in 3 phasing exits on 2 existing lands and extra dialogue for the boat captains on the shores of both the Domain of Istan and Sandswept Isles it takes them a long time to do since they repeatedly said that that is one of the hardest parts to put in the game. Or go north somewhere in the Southern Shiverpeaks just to have an easier time implementing stuff and do it in a similar fashion as they did in Season 3.
    To be fair, I want to be wrong and get it this month as a present for the long Winters Day, but the cynic in me is saying March.

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 8, 2018

    We know there were 3 living world teams during Season 3.

    If there are still 3 teams in Season 4, Team 1 released "Daybreak" (November 2017) and 10 months later they released "A Star to Guide Us" (September 2018). Team 2 released "A Bug in the System" (March 2018) so if they keep the 10 month schedule, their second episode will come on January 2019. Finally, Team 3 released "Long Live the Lich" (June 2018), and their next episode (and final of S4/2 episodes per team) will be released on April 2019.

    Then S5 will begin with the first episode from Team 1, on July 2019, the second episode on November 2019 and S5 will end with the final episode (half season) on February 2020. Then it will be all hype for expansion 3 around Q3 of 2020.

    Edit:
    Season 3 went like this:
    Out of the Shadows July 2016 - The Head of the Snake February 2017 (7 months)
    Rising Flames September 2016 - Flashpoint May 2017 (8 months)
    A Crack in the Ice November 2016 - One Path Ends July 2017 (8 months)

    So yeah 7-8 months delay between episodes in Season 3 and 9-10 months delay between episodes in Season 4, I guess S4 episodes are more complex!

  • TheOrlyFactor.8341TheOrlyFactor.8341 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 8, 2018

    Anet's already playing a dangerous game with them claiming that they were aiming for a 2 - 3 month cadence between each episode. You've got people claiming that Anet "promised" this when they didn't and getting bent out of shape when they don't meet it, regardless if Anet updates us on it or not. So for them to push it back as far as March is, in my opinion, not a wise move on their part in terms of financial health. Anet needs player retention to keep people engaged and spending money to keep the game going. Anything that brings back a small feeling of an impending content drought is not good as that can potentially drive players away.

    Yes, I know that technically speaking we're still getting content, with the Beetle Races being the most recent thing and Wintersday also coming up (I don't know how much of it is recycled from last Wintersdays events and how much is new content). However (and this is the point I'm trying to make when I talking about the feeling of an impending content drought), also keep in mind a lot of people are going to ignore that, which fuels their perception that we're suffering from a content drought. A lot of people (based on the posts I've read here) seem to operate on the mindset that "my preferred game mode isn't getting updates, therefore there are no updates". They're going to get frustrated, maybe make hyperbolic claims on the forums, but eventually they'll move on to other things and there's a chance they're not going to come back. Some of those who won't come back will make a conscious effort to get new and old players alike not to play the game because "the game has no updates" and that hurts the long-term health/growth of this game.

    Granted, I'm probably making the mistake of equating the forum population with the game population in my analysis (I'm of the impression that the forum and even GW2 subreddit population are a mere fraction of the overall population of the game). I'm probably also making the mistake of giving the forum population too much power over how well does Anet financially. However, I still don't think it would be good on Anet's part to push Ep. 5 all the way back to March. I'm not saying or implying they'd be committing financial seppuku by doing this. However, it certainly won't do them any favors, in my opinion.

    /earlymorningspeculation

    Asura fanatic.
    World's largest Zojja fan.
    Illconceived Was Na fanboy.

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