Halloween Start Time Predictions

For some of us, it's never too soon to start prepping for Halloween. (In particular, I need an hour or three to ensure I have enough inventory for all the junk potential profit-making stuff that drops.) To gauge the likely date, I use the past dates to see if I can spot a pattern:

• 2017: 17 Oct – 7 Nov (predicted based on patterns below)
• 2016: 18 Oct – 8 Nov (My prediction was 18 Oct – 1 or 8 Nov)
• 2015: 23 Oct – 4 Nov
• 2014: 21 Oct – 4 Nov
• 2013: 15 Oct – 13 Nov
• 2012: 22 Oct – 2 Nov

Pattern

• Ends during the first week of November. (One exception, 2013.)
• Scheduled updates occur on Tuesdays (outside of the two expacs, there have been very few exceptions)
• Begins soon enough to allow for minimum three full weeks (no exceptions)
• Expansion release dates haven't (yet) affected the start (sample size of one :( ).