ETA until episode 6? - Page 2 — Guild Wars 2 Forums

ETA until episode 6?

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  • @Hybarf Tics.2048 said:

    @Ashantara.8731 said:

    @Hybarf Tics.2048 said:
    In between April 16th and 30th. B)

    Ugh, that would be a bummer.

    4 out of the last 5 episodes were all above 3 months, so my estimate isn't far off.
    Season 3 episode 6; July 25th, 2017
    Episode 1; November 28, 2017 = 4 months, 3 days later
    Episode 2; March 6, 2018 =3 months, 1 week, 2 days later
    Episode 3; June 26, 2018 = 3 months, 2 weeks, 6 days later
    Episode 4; September 18, 2018 = 2 month, 3 weeks, 2 days later
    Episode 5; January 8, 2019 = 3 months, 3 weeks later

    You're ignoring the release of Path of Fire in your claims; Episode 1 wasn't past the 3 month mark. Also, you should by the weeks, not "direct months then days". If you do that then you get:

    • Season 3 Episode 6: July 25th, 2017
    • Path of Fire: September 22nd, 2017; 7.5 weeks
    • Episode 1: November 28, 2017; 8.5 weeks
    • Episode 2: March 6, 2018; 13 weeks (officially minor delay for technical issues)
    • Episode 3: June 26, 2018; 17 weeks (officially delayed due to internal restructuring at ArenaNet)
    • Episode 4: September 18, 2018; 12 weeks
    • Episode 5: January 8, 2019; 16 weeks (delayed for winter holidays)

    So since Season 3 ended, three out of six were delayed past the 12 week mark, not four out of five, and one was for the reason of "bad timing" (winter holidays when ArenaNet's not working nor should you expect them to). And if you include Season 3, you get:

    • Episode 1: July 26, 2016
    • Episode 2: September 20, 2016; 8 weeks (aka 2 months)
    • Episode 3: November 21, 2016; 9 weeks (aka 2 months, 6 days)
    • Episode 4: February 8, 2017; 11 weeks 1 day (aka 2 months, 3 weeks, 1 day)
    • Episode 5: May 2, 2017; 12 weeks (aka 3 months; officially delayed)
    • Episode 6: July 25th, 2017; 12 weeks (aka 3 months)

    All within the 3 month period. So out of 12 releases (S3 1-6, PoF, S4 1-5), we had 3 that were past the 3 month / 12 week mark.

    Not as bad as folks love to proclaim it to be

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  • Susy.7529Susy.7529 Member ✭✭✭

    @Eloc Freidon.5692 said:

    @Glider.5792 said:
    Either it will release in middle of March, or SAB will come realy early this year (middle of march) and last around 3 weeks. If SAB comes early, ep6 will release in the middle of April.

    They can and have LW chapters release to overlap seasonal events.

    Indeed, epecially if those seasonal events are recycled old content with nothing new like SAB (rip world 3&4).

  • Healix.5819Healix.5819 Member ✭✭✭✭

    There has been 293, 308, 336, 294 and 308 days between the releases of episodes from the same team; an average of 308 days. That average would make the release April 30, which would mean announcing it the week after SAB ends. If you're expecting earlier, anything prior to April 16 would be less than 290 days, making it the quickest to be developed. For comparison, the last set of episodes in season 3 had an average of 222 days, which is why although they haven't outright said it, 3-4 months between episodes is the new norm this season.

  • That's confusing; the 'same team' only creates an Episode every 3rd release and there's only been 5 releases in Season 4.
    Unless, of course, by 'same team' it's meant to be the Living World Season 'team' collectively.

  • Healix.5819Healix.5819 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:
    That's confusing; the 'same team' only creates an Episode every 3rd release and there's only been 5 releases in Season 4.

    They're the same teams as season 3, so 293 for example was the amount of days between S3E4 and S4E1 by team 1. If you want to make it even worse, team 3 has been the slowest, taking an average of 26 more days for the finale, which could potentially mean it won't be until mid-May.

  • @Healix.5819 said:

    @Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:
    That's confusing; the 'same team' only creates an Episode every 3rd release and there's only been 5 releases in Season 4.

    They're the same teams as season 3, so 293 for example was the amount of days between S3E4 and S4E1 by team 1. If you want to make it even worse, team 3 has been the slowest, taking an average of 26 more days for the finale, which could potentially mean it won't be until mid-May.

    The confusing thing is that there's only 5 values listed, but there's been 8 such cycles:
    3.1>3.4>4.1>4.4
    3.2>3.5>4.2>4.5
    3.3>3.6>4.3

  • cptaylor.2670cptaylor.2670 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Konig Des Todes.2086 said:

    @Hybarf Tics.2048 said:

    @Ashantara.8731 said:

    @Hybarf Tics.2048 said:
    In between April 16th and 30th. B)

    Ugh, that would be a bummer.

    4 out of the last 5 episodes were all above 3 months, so my estimate isn't far off.
    Season 3 episode 6; July 25th, 2017
    Episode 1; November 28, 2017 = 4 months, 3 days later
    Episode 2; March 6, 2018 =3 months, 1 week, 2 days later
    Episode 3; June 26, 2018 = 3 months, 2 weeks, 6 days later
    Episode 4; September 18, 2018 = 2 month, 3 weeks, 2 days later
    Episode 5; January 8, 2019 = 3 months, 3 weeks later

    You're ignoring the release of Path of Fire in your claims; Episode 1 wasn't past the 3 month mark. Also, you should by the weeks, not "direct months then days". If you do that then you get:

    • Season 3 Episode 6: July 25th, 2017
    • Path of Fire: September 22nd, 2017; 7.5 weeks
    • Episode 1: November 28, 2017; 8.5 weeks
    • Episode 2: March 6, 2018; 13 weeks (officially minor delay for technical issues)
    • Episode 3: June 26, 2018; 17 weeks (officially delayed due to internal restructuring at ArenaNet)
    • Episode 4: September 18, 2018; 12 weeks
    • Episode 5: January 8, 2019; 16 weeks (delayed for winter holidays)

    So since Season 3 ended, three out of six were delayed past the 12 week mark, not four out of five, and one was for the reason of "bad timing" (winter holidays when ArenaNet's not working nor should you expect them to). And if you include Season 3, you get:

    • Episode 1: July 26, 2016
    • Episode 2: September 20, 2016; 8 weeks (aka 2 months)
    • Episode 3: November 21, 2016; 9 weeks (aka 2 months, 6 days)
    • Episode 4: February 8, 2017; 11 weeks 1 day (aka 2 months, 3 weeks, 1 day)
    • Episode 5: May 2, 2017; 12 weeks (aka 3 months; officially delayed)
    • Episode 6: July 25th, 2017; 12 weeks (aka 3 months)

    All within the 3 month period. So out of 12 releases (S3 1-6, PoF, S4 1-5), we had 3 that were past the 3 month / 12 week mark.

    Not as bad as folks love to proclaim it to be.

    I think he's not including Path of Fire release because he's only talking about the living story team.

    Path of Fire team was the expansion team.

    But even if they had season 4 episode 1 ready, they couldn't release it until after Path of Fire was released. So I don't really factor that into it, despite it being a different team.

    And as their previous window statement was 2 to 3 months - 2 of the releases this season have been closer to 4 months than 3, and all of them with the exception of the first have been at least 3 months.

    So, if we're assuming 2 to 3 months means the max would be 3 months, with only one of them being 12 weeks (3 months) then only one has fallen within that window.

    If 2 to 3 months means, minimum of 2 months and maximum of 4 months minus 1 day, then sure, they're right on target.

    I think it's pretty obvious that the window is just 3 to 4 months now though. And with that being said, the last super adventure box lasted from March 29th to April 19th.

    So, if we don't get it mid-march, which would make it well under their typical 3 month+ release schedule, then it's reasonable to expect it closer to the end of April. Though if SAB started on March 26th and ended on April 16th this year, it seems reasonable to expect a one to two week gap between them putting the episode on the 23rd or the 30th of April. Which would be 3 months and 15 days or 3 months and 22 days if I'm not mistaken. Which would be within the typical release window for season 4. Though, it could technically be released on May 7th and be one day less than 4 months, leaving it within this "3 month and x days" window.

    Bottom line - I wouldn't expect it before April after SAB ends.

    And given that we haven't had anymore stories revealed from Requiem, it seems like that may be a monthly addition. With the last being on January 29th, perhaps Zafirah will be the one released at the end of this month, and Caithe being released at the end of March as a potential minor lead-in to the episode released in April.

  • Healix.5819Healix.5819 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Tanner Blackfeather.6509 said:
    The confusing thing is that there's only 5 values listed, but there's been 8 such cycles:

    This is about season 4, so the 5 values are for the 5 episodes currently released this season. Season 3 isn't relevant, nor can I accurately estimate its first 3 episodes, since that's when the 3 teams were formed, in the months following HoT. Here's a longer format:

    Season 3:

    Team 1, 197 days between S3E1 and S3E4.
    Team 2, 224 days between S3E2 and S3E5.
    Team 3, 246 days between S3E3 and S3E6.
    222 days average.

    Season 4:

    Team 1, 293 days between S3E4 and S4E1.
    Team 2, 308 days between S3E5 and S4E2.
    Team 3, 336 days between S3E6 and S4E3.
    Team 1, 294 days between S4E1 and S4E4.
    Team 2, 308 days between S4E2 and S4E5.
    308 days average.

  • @cptaylor.2670 said:
    I think he's not including Path of Fire release because he's only talking about the living story team.

    Path of Fire team was the expansion team.

    But even if they had season 4 episode 1 ready, they couldn't release it until after Path of Fire was released. So I don't really factor that into it, despite it being a different team.

    Which still makes his statement of Episode 1 taking 4 months to release false.

    @cptaylor.2670 said:
    And as their previous window statement was 2 to 3 months - 2 of the releases this season have been closer to 4 months than 3, and all of them with the exception of the first have been at least 3 months.

    So, if we're assuming 2 to 3 months means the max would be 3 months, with only one of them being 12 weeks (3 months) then only one has fallen within that window.

    And both of those releases were delayed for non-standard reasons. Episode 3 being delayed due to a one-time reorganizing of teams, and Episode 5 being delayed due to winter holidays.

    Those two releases are the exception to the rule. And I think everyone's forgetting that very important fact.

    Episodes 2 and 4 were closer to 3 months (2 was delayed a week due to a literal bug in the system, which is again an exception to the rule), while Episode 1 was closer to 2 months.

    Even if we expect a delay due to a bug or weather, it would be a delay no greater than a week past 3 months based on empirical evidence.

    And it's not one falling within that window, but two (Episodes 1 and 4). Episode 4 was exact 3 months. It would have been three if not for that unexpected bug on Episode 2.

    And you can't really just take Season 4 without also considering Season 3 since they use the same exact release schedule for both. You're picking and choosing your evidence, skewing the results towards the favor of your hypothesis. You and others aren't looking at it objectively.

    @Healix.5819 said:
    This is about season 4, so the 5 values are for the 5 episodes currently released this season. Season 3 isn't relevant, nor can I accurately estimate its first 3 episodes, since that's when the 3 teams were formed, in the months following HoT.

    Season 3 is fully relevant since they utilize the same release schedule and have to produce the same level of content. Though they've gotten more ambitious as episodes go, with larger maps and more often developing new tech for each episode, they did the same for Episode 3.

    While the gaps between Episodes 1-3 for Season 3 had a lot more time for development, Episodes 1-3 for Season 4 similarly had more time for development due to the release of Path of Fire giving the teams an extra 2 months.

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  • Arden.7480Arden.7480 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Konig Des Todes.2086 said:

    @cptaylor.2670 said:
    Well the time frame has been pretty consistently inconsistent. Their window original puts it at 2 to 3 months. But we've had quite a few delays this season so it's really anyone's guess.

    Super Adventure Box begins around April 1st and will probably last a month, so if it isn't March it's probably going to be may. May would be... 4 months? What was episode 2 to 3 gap? Was it 4 or 5 months? And the same team, so given that, the fact that it's the final of the season, and the SAB, as much as I would like it to be in March I wouldn't be surprised to see it in May. Especially given they're jumping into another season instead of an expansion.

    TBH, it's been pretty consistent. Average of 11 weeks baring delays (only 2 episodes have had delays longer than a week: Long Live the Lich and All or Nothing) or held back due to festival (this is rare, as they've done this once). The longest delay being for Long Live the Lich which was 17 weeks. The other delay was simply due to bad timing with holidays.

    People like to bemoan about how ArenaNet's constantly delaying but... at most, with exception of the two above, releases have never been longer than 13 weeks, and only one has been at 13 weeks itself (due to technical problems). Granted, excluding the first three releases, I don't think they've been under 10 releases either (EDIT: Daybreak was).

    That said, will last 3 weeks as all festivals do. Given All or Nothing launched January 8th, we'd expect a March 5th to April 9th release. If SAB follows standard set up and launches the Tuesday before to April 1st, then we'll likely see SAB lasting from March 26th to April 9th. Unless they consider overlapping with SAB fine while not so with Wintersday then we'll see Episode 6 on one of the following dates:

    • March 5th
    • March 12th
    • April 23rd

    As ArenaNet seldom (if ever) has content within 2 weeks of itself. So before 2 weeks before SAB or 2 weeks after. Technically April 16th is plausible, but imo highly unlikely (as unlikely as Anet releasing Ep6 during SAB). Gives us 3 possibilities. Baring no delays for technical issues.

    We know they already recorded script for episode 6. It was in the first half of February. And they record script two months+ before they release an episode - confirmed various times by Eve Eschenbacher on Guild Chats.

    So the episode will be released not sooner than 1st April.

    I will post the exact places she confirmed it soon.

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  • So guys, where the heck is episode 6? We are wayyyyy past expected ETA.

  • @AdamWarlord.6782 said:
    So guys, where the heck is episode 6? We are wayyyyy past expected ETA.

    They just a couple hours ago announced that it'll launch May 14.

  • Ayakaru.6583Ayakaru.6583 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2019

    @AdamWarlord.6782 said:
    So guys, where the heck is episode 6? We are wayyyyy past expected ETA.

    The trailer just launched
    The episode launches 12th

    And FYI there was a public announcement prior, stating episode 6 would be later due to the staff reorganization issues

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