Ascended armor drops favor new and returning players — Guild Wars 2 Forums

Ascended armor drops favor new and returning players

I think theres a conspiracy around ascended armor drops... I experienced it myself... When I was new to fractals I got around 8 armor chest and lot of asc trinkets in t1 - t2 level within approx 10-12 days....

But once I improved my personal fractal level to t4 and equip asc gears, I stopped getting even a single asc armor box or asc trinkets... No asc drops for 2 months

If we complete teq, TT and fracs regularly, anet's rng algorithm allots us little to zero chance for asc drops

Maybe a week's break is what we need to reset rng favor...

Comments

  • Illconceived Was Na.9781Illconceived Was Na.9781 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 1, 2019

    2 months without a drop isn't that unlikely. 8 chests within two weeks isn't either.

    From the [KING] data posted some time ago, I ran some "monte carlo simulations" to see what sort of loot we could expect over thousands of dailies. Simulating 10k dailies, it's typical to have streaks of at least 30-no-box days at least 10-15 times. The longest streaks without any armor or weapon is 50-65 days.

    Given that probably a lot more than 10k people fractal, one of us is going to suffer luck that bad. Maybe you, maybe me.

    This comes up from time to time because we humans aren't very good at understanding random behavior. We see "average" and we think that means "what we should expect," except... it's nothing close. RNG works in streaks, it's never steady. And good luck doesn't inevitably follow bad or vice versa. We tend to assume great import in whatever stats we see in front of us right now, only... this week's stats are no more important than last week's or last year's.

    If you really want to know what's going on with your account compared so someone else's, you'd need to collect months and months and months of chests. There's a huge variance, because of the way the drop tables are set up.

    The main reason to take a break: it resets your mood. And since fun is a big part of why we play, that's worth doing.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • The biggest conspiracy with ascended armor is that in order to make wvw and pvp more competitive the stat-armor bonus is not that high. I've used exotic armors on my warrior since I made it, aside from the ascended trinkets I bought with the laurels I didn't have any use for.

  • lare.5129lare.5129 Member ✭✭✭✭

    my opinion: what conspiracy ? lol. relax and play. This is gw2.

  • Yea i've had some time in fractals but to be honest ive had the opposite i think maybe you where just lucky at the start... but i definitely get alot more T4 than anywhere else... but still comes in once every month or so on average.

  • Turkeyspit.3965Turkeyspit.3965 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I don't recall getting any armor/weapon chests until I hit T4, before that Rings were all I saw drop for me in T1-T3. Also noteworthy is I didn't see ascended trinkets drop until T4 either.

  • Memoranda.9386Memoranda.9386 Member ✭✭✭

    I routinely go 30+ days without any weapon/armor box drop; sometimes going a week or more without a ring/accessory/amulet. Kind of a running joke in my guild about it.

    It seems that I used to get quite a lot of boxes, having fully geared 3 characters just off Fractals in my first 3-4 months of doing them. Must've used up all my RNG right at the start, I guess.

    Lately, though, I've been seeing a lot Amulets/Accessories instead of rings, which I've never gotten before. So I suspect something on the back end has been tinkered with, documented or not.

  • ProverbsofHell.2307ProverbsofHell.2307 Member ✭✭✭✭

    When I first started WvW as a new player in mid 2017, I got 6 ascended armor boxes and 4 ascended weapon boxes from rank up rewards in my first month (from rank 0 to 230 or so) and I could fully gear up. I'm now pushing rank 2200 and I haven't had one drop since. I don't think OPs "conspiracy" is too crazy sounding.

  • Glider.5792Glider.5792 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 1, 2019

    There is this "thing" which some of us refer to as "returning luck". If a person goes on a longer break, like a month, possibly more, when they come back they will have an insanely increased luck to get "rare" drops.
    What are these drops ? Precursors, 500g-2000g drop from ecto gamble. These are most common from what i saw.

    Does this "returning luck" actualy exist ? Nobody knows, but it does seem it has effect quite often. I personaly didnt experience it on my account, since i login daily, however, after my gf logged in after like 2 months, i told her to drop some exotics into MF (was 3 attempts i think). She got Leaf of Kudzu on second one.
    There have been multiple other cases which i expirienced with friends, but in the end, its just a myth.

    If this somehow is a thing though, then this is a smart way of trying to keep returning players, to not leave the game again for multiple months.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCeFWMeskOJhk8N-SvOFCJXA
    Fractal speed kills, raids, Black Lion Chest Openings, random.

  • Clyan.1593Clyan.1593 Member ✭✭✭

    I experience the same from playing fractals. After 2 weeks i never got a golden skin ever again. And i was playing A LOT of fractals.

  • @Glider.5792 said:
    There is this "thing" which some of us refer to as "returning luck". If a person goes on a longer break, like a month, possibly more, when they come back they will have an insanely increased luck to get "rare" drops.
    What are these drops ? Precursors, 500g-2000g drop from ecto gamble. These are most common from what i saw.

    No, this isn't "common." We can't take data from just the returning people you know and draw any conclusions.

    Does this "returning luck" actualy exist ? Nobody knows, but it does seem it has effect quite often.

    We do know, because we'd see dozens and dozens of posts by all the people who returned after month-long breaks.

    I personaly didnt experience it on my account, since i login daily, however, after my gf logged in after like 2 months, i told her to drop some exotics into MF (was 3 attempts i think). She got Leaf of Kudzu on second one.

    Someone is always going to get a precursor in the MF, every day. Why wouldn't it be your GF? Why couldn't it be right after she returned from a break?

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • Cyninja.2954Cyninja.2954 Member ✭✭✭✭

    2 Months ago I had an average of around 5-7 ascended chests per week from fractal T4s (with often 2 chests per day). It was getting so ludicrous I actually salvaged around 15 boxes of gloves, boots and shoulders keeping only 6 per armor piece on hand (which I will never need but I like having a few bank tabs wasted on ascended gear). Guild mates were actually making fun of me that I was draining all their drop luck.

    Currently I'm seeing maybe 1 chest per week of ascended gear drop in T4 with as little as 1 chest per 2 weeks.

    Long story short: it's rng because I was a veteran player 2 months ago and I'm a veteran player now.

  • Ayrilana.1396Ayrilana.1396 Member ✭✭✭✭

    RNG. This feels like the whole precursor drop conspiracy from many years ago.

  • @Glider.5792 said:
    There is this "thing" which some of us refer to as "returning luck". If a person goes on a longer break, like a month, possibly more, when they come back they will have an insanely increased luck to get "rare" drops.
    What are these drops ? Precursors, 500g-2000g drop from ecto gamble. These are most common from what i saw.

    Does this "returning luck" actualy exist ? Nobody knows, but it does seem it has effect quite often. I personaly didnt experience it on my account, since i login daily, however, after my gf logged in after like 2 months, i told her to drop some exotics into MF (was 3 attempts i think). She got Leaf of Kudzu on second one.
    There have been multiple other cases which i expirienced with friends, but in the end, its just a myth.

    If this somehow is a thing though, then this is a smart way of trying to keep returning players, to not leave the game again for multiple months.

    I believe.

  • Ayrilana.1396Ayrilana.1396 Member ✭✭✭✭

    This may have been mentioned before but people tend to only focus on one outcome and ignore the other most of the time. In this case, people are ignoring the failures (times someone returning did not receive the drop).

  • Kilo.2539Kilo.2539 Member ✭✭✭

    I've been saying this for awhile now too.. I mainly play WvW and years ago I would get ascended drops fairly frequently. I can honestly say I haven't got an ascended armor drop in over two years in WvW on my main account. On my alt accounts (low level) I still get ascended armor drops.

  • AlexxxDelta.1806AlexxxDelta.1806 Member ✭✭✭✭

    OP have you been playing Anthem recently by any chance? Or frequent its subreddit?

    On a more serious note, theories like this are just...theories. Because unless one has insider info or a large sample of recorded data from different players, there is no way to verify.

  • @AlexxxDelta.1806 said:
    theories like this are just...theories. Because unless one has ...large sample of recorded data from different players, there is no way to verify.

    The data we do have doesn't support the claims.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • @AlexxxDelta.1806 said:
    OP have you been playing Anthem recently by any chance? Or frequent its subreddit?

    On a more serious note, theories like this are just...theories. Because unless one has insider info or a large sample of recorded data from different players, there is no way to verify.

    I don't have much data... Just my own experience... If others feel the same way, they could share their opinions too... Maybe I should've made this a poll instead... That could've collected some prerequisite data to consider the scenario

  • phs.6089phs.6089 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Crystal Paladin.3871 said:

    @AlexxxDelta.1806 said:
    OP have you been playing Anthem recently by any chance? Or frequent its subreddit?

    On a more serious note, theories like this are just...theories. Because unless one has insider info or a large sample of recorded data from different players, there is no way to verify.

    I don't have much data... Just my own experience... If others feel the same way, they could share their opinions too... Maybe I should've made this a poll instead... That could've collected some prerequisite data to consider the scenario

    What i feel is that fractal loot got silently nerfed with Istan. Not much but I'm sure some numbers after comma (xx,001) got lowered.
    It goes from ascended chests to trash you get from crates.

    "There is always a lighthouse, there's always a man, there's always a city."

  • @phs.6089 said:

    @Crystal Paladin.3871 said:

    @AlexxxDelta.1806 said:
    OP have you been playing Anthem recently by any chance? Or frequent its subreddit?

    On a more serious note, theories like this are just...theories. Because unless one has insider info or a large sample of recorded data from different players, there is no way to verify.

    I don't have much data... Just my own experience... If others feel the same way, they could share their opinions too... Maybe I should've made this a poll instead... That could've collected some prerequisite data to consider the scenario

    What i feel is that fractal loot got silently nerfed with Istan. Not much but I'm sure some numbers after comma (xx,001) got lowered.
    It goes from ascended chests to trash you get from crates.

    ^^This could be true too

  • I think ascended drops shouldn't be this hard to get...(of course we craft them... But most ppl don't max out craft...) It should be made somewhat lenient.... Coz, u can't sell ascended items in tp... Most are account bound... This might not affect economy much... And ppl would get ready for raids and WvW with these gears and ppl would spend more time in end game content (doesn't apply to PVP)... Less reason for ppl to leave gw2... Atleast this is what I think... Maybe I'm wrong, I might've missed something ...idk

  • Cyninja.2954Cyninja.2954 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2, 2019

    @Crystal Paladin.3871 said:
    I think ascended drops shouldn't be this hard to get...(of course we craft them... But most ppl don't max out craft...) It should be made somewhat lenient.... Coz, u can't sell ascended items in tp... Most are account bound... This might not affect economy much... And ppl would get ready for raids and WvW with these gears and ppl would spend more time in end game content (doesn't apply to PVP)... Less reason for ppl to leave gw2... Atleast this is what I think... Maybe I'm wrong, I might've missed something ...idk

    First misconception:
    Ascended is needed for raids or wvw. It most certainly is not.

    Second misconception:
    Making BiS gear available more freely will cause people to play more. Very doubtful to say the least. People who enjoy the game based on its merits outside of gear, will keep playing the game (and wouldn't care to much to begin with). People obsessed with gear will definitely leave earlier if given said gear faster.

    Third misconception:
    Ascended not being available on the TP (there actually is some and insignias most certainly are purchasable) will not have any effect on the TP. Even account bound ascended gear has an effect on the TP. Most directly on prices of materials for crafting it becoming more useless.

    The drop rate of ascended gear is fine in pve and might even be slightly to high in T4 fractals. For any seasoned player (aka playing the game and T4 fractals for more than 3-6 months) ascended becomes a non-issue. It does present a barrier for people who do not T4 fractal or who are new to the game, providing a moderate initial challenge and goal for new players.

  • Excursion.9752Excursion.9752 Member ✭✭✭

    I get 3 to 5 chest drops a week. Remember Rng is Rng and your results may differ but I will tell you what I do. Because I too thought the Rng gods were being obnoxiously brutal to me. So I decided to try something different and now I wont go back.

    I collect at least 7 days worth of chests. I do **NOT **open them one at a time by clicking over and over again. I right click and then open all. Make sure you have a decent amount of inventory space to not stop any chests from not opening. Give this a try and test your luck.

                                                              There is a 50% chance you will not agree with me and a 50% chance I will not agree with you
    
  • Klowdy.3126Klowdy.3126 Member ✭✭✭

    I'm only up to a personal level of 40 (T2), but last night I got two rings, one of which was a copy of one I bought at the laurel vendor, and the other I will probably never use. This was the first time I've gotten anything in the drawn out time of doing fractals.

    I've always thought the system was a little strange. The most ascendeds come when you need them the least. I would like to see it shift into something that allows you to acquire more as you move forward, not less as you go down. T1 offers rings and neck, T2 adds trinkets and a higher than current chance for armor, T3 bumps up the armor rate, and T4 adds in weapons. I'm not asking for gear to be thrown at me, but a bit higher chance to get what I need to progress would be great before I get to the end.

    I can only assume they want to push crafting, another aspect of the game, in order to acquire most, if not all of that first set of ascended gear, but the crafting in this game is just so boring, and convoluted. I managed to push my way through armor crafting to get a heavy set, but now that I've changed to necro, it's just so hard to find the effort to do it again. I am working on it, it's just such a tedious slog.

  • phs.6089phs.6089 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Klowdy.3126 said:
    I'm only up to a personal level of 40 (T2), but last night I got two rings, one of which was a copy of one I bought at the laurel vendor, and the other I will probably never use. This was the first time I've gotten anything in the drawn out time of doing fractals.

    I've always thought the system was a little strange. The most ascendeds come when you need them the least. I would like to see it shift into something that allows you to acquire more as you move forward, not less as you go down. T1 offers rings and neck, T2 adds trinkets and a higher than current chance for armor, T3 bumps up the armor rate, and T4 adds in weapons. I'm not asking for gear to be thrown at me, but a bit higher chance to get what I need to progress would be great before I get to the end.

    I can only assume they want to push crafting, another aspect of the game, in order to acquire most, if not all of that first set of ascended gear, but the crafting in this game is just so boring, and convoluted. I managed to push my way through armor crafting to get a heavy set, but now that I've changed to necro, it's just so hard to find the effort to do it again. I am working on it, it's just such a tedious slog.

    Next time you get daily chests, right click and use 'preview' almost all you suggestions are in it. It's juts RNG based

    "There is always a lighthouse, there's always a man, there's always a city."

  • Klowdy.3126Klowdy.3126 Member ✭✭✭

    @phs.6089 said:

    @Klowdy.3126 said:
    I'm only up to a personal level of 40 (T2), but last night I got two rings, one of which was a copy of one I bought at the laurel vendor, and the other I will probably never use. This was the first time I've gotten anything in the drawn out time of doing fractals.

    I've always thought the system was a little strange. The most ascendeds come when you need them the least. I would like to see it shift into something that allows you to acquire more as you move forward, not less as you go down. T1 offers rings and neck, T2 adds trinkets and a higher than current chance for armor, T3 bumps up the armor rate, and T4 adds in weapons. I'm not asking for gear to be thrown at me, but a bit higher chance to get what I need to progress would be great before I get to the end.

    I can only assume they want to push crafting, another aspect of the game, in order to acquire most, if not all of that first set of ascended gear, but the crafting in this game is just so boring, and convoluted. I managed to push my way through armor crafting to get a heavy set, but now that I've changed to necro, it's just so hard to find the effort to do it again. I am working on it, it's just such a tedious slog.

    Next time you get daily chests, right click and use 'preview' almost all you suggestions are in it. It's juts RNG based

    Isn't it a much lower chance in T1 than it is in T4?

  • @Klowdy.3126 said:
    Isn't it a much lower chance in T1 than it is in T4?

    For me, it's just the opposite... I guess :/

  • Crystal Paladin.3871Crystal Paladin.3871 Member ✭✭✭
    edited April 11, 2019

    I take back what I said.... Y'day I got a named ascended armor chest while completing TT... My observations are inconclusive... Or it might be related to the fact that I avoided TT,fracs,teq for a week then upon my first TT after a week's break, I got the chest?

  • Cyninja.2954Cyninja.2954 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Crystal Paladin.3871 said:
    I take back what I said.... Y'day I got a named ascended armor chest while completing TT... My observations are inconclusive... Or it might be related to the fact that I avoided TT,fracs,teq for a week then upon my first TT after a week's break, I got the chest?

    This just in: Breakthrough in research! Scientific analysis and data sets now reliable with only 1 sample size.

  • Crystal Paladin.3871Crystal Paladin.3871 Member ✭✭✭
    edited April 12, 2019

    @Cyninja.2954 said:

    @Crystal Paladin.3871 said:
    I take back what I said.... Y'day I got a named ascended armor chest while completing TT... My observations are inconclusive... Or it might be related to the fact that I avoided TT,fracs,teq for a week then upon my first TT after a week's break, I got the chest?

    This just in: Breakthrough in research! Scientific analysis and data sets now reliable with only 1 sample size.

    I documented my own experience so ppl can post their experiences too... I couldn't be an acceptable sample size on my own... So I resort to forums... Data from the masses might help a little... And I never said my results were reliable at all...

    Why do ppl react this way??? If that's just a funny remark u made, that's okay... but if u're serious while making that statement, Idk... Dull gloomy world

  • I documented my own experience so ppl can post their experiences too...

    Actually, you didn't document your experience. At best, you summarized your impressions. And then, without waiting for any other data, you leaped to a conclusion.

    • Impression: "I got around 8 armor chest within approx 10-12 days."
    • Impression: "t4...no asc drops for 2 months"
    • Conclusion: "if we complete ... fracs regularly, anet's rng algorithm allots us little to zero chance for asc drops"

    I couldn't be an acceptable sample size on my own...

    If only you has waited for more data.

    And I never said my results were reliable at all...

    If you thought your results were unreliable, why did you offer a conclusion?

    Why do ppl react this way???

    Maybe it was your theory that there's a conspiracy.


    Incidentally, 8 armor chests for T1-2 fractals in two weeks is unbelievably good luck, as the drop rate is 2.1% (the odds are half a million to one). Did you mean that you did T4 fractals for two weeks, but your personal level was under 50? That has no bearing on what we get out of the fractal chests at all.

    Similarly, "no ascended drops for 2 months" from T4 is even less likely. Non-infused rings alone have a 1:5 chance of dropping. To go for 60 days of triple T4s without even a ring (never mind anything else) is something like a quadrillion to 1 (10^18 against).

    That leaves the impression that you are unintentionally reporting just a subset of your observations. That's a common problem in data collection by amateurs, such as you or I. We have a tendency to pay closer attention to data that surprises or annoys us and ignore 'normal' looking "stuff." Plain rings drop all the time, so they are often forgotten when people report.

    Or maybe when you said, "No asc drops for 2 months" you meant something other than "no rings, no infused rings, no amulets, no accessories, no armor boxes, no weapon boxes, no damask, no elonian, no deldrimor." Either way, it gives the impression that you are describing how you feel, not actual data.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • Turkeyspit.3965Turkeyspit.3965 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 12, 2019

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:
    but your personal level was under 50? That has no bearing on what we get out of the fractal chests at all.

    So that raises a question for me, since when I started doing fractals, I noticed the following point on the wiki:
    https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Fractals_of_the_Mists#Difficulty_scale

    Increased personal levels offer increased rewards, even if the run is at a lower difficulty level. Higher difficulty levels offer greater challenges and higher chances of better rewards, from foes, chests, and bonus chests.

    I distinctly recall that as my personal level went up, the quality of rewards went up as well on days when I only did fractals in T1 or T2.

    This observation with a sample size of 1 based on a bullet point published on the free to edit wiki page, I get that, but thoughts?

  • @Turkeyspit.3965 said:

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:
    but your personal level was under 50? That has no bearing on what we get out of the fractal chests at all.

    So that raises a question for me, since when I started doing fractals, I noticed the following point on the wiki:
    https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Fractals_of_the_Mists#Difficulty_scale

    Increased personal levels offer increased rewards, even if the run is at a lower difficulty level. Higher difficulty levels offer greater challenges and higher chances of better rewards, from foes, chests, and bonus chests.

    I distinctly recall that as my personal level went up, the quality of rewards went up as well on days when I only did fractals in T1 or T2.

    This observation with a sample size of 1 based on a bullet point published on the free to edit wiki page, I get that, but thoughts?

    tl;dr increased personal reward affects relics and pristines that drop from any fractal, regardless of dailies; it has no impact on whether you get tiered daily rewards, nor on what drops from the reward chests

    A lot of the wiki article was written back in the days when rewards were greatly tied to fractal level. Roughly, if you were Fractal Personal Level 10, you could have done Fractal 50, but you would have gotten the same rewards as if doing Level 10. I doubt if the article has been rewritten to reflect the many changes to rewards since then, leaving room for misunderstanding.

    Today (unlike the original fractal setup), there are four distinct rewards:

    • Fractal Tier Dailies
    • Fractal Recommended Dailies
    • Boss chest
    • Other drops from final battle

    The last two categories are the only thing we got originally, and those rewards went up with fractal level and personal level (as noted above). The first two categories aren't affected at all by personal level nor by fractal level, excepted that the recommended chest is only available for three specific fractals each day... and the tiered rewards depend on the highest tier you complete, e.g. the master's chest only drops for those doing T4.

    The ascended drops of which the OP speaks have by far the highest rate from the T4 chests and opening such chests is unaffected by anything: once you get the chest, the odds are the same for everyone. (At least, that's how ANet explained it and there's no data that even hints that they are mistaken.)

    Personal reward is important in the long run and it's very relevant for anyone running a fractal farm; it's not important at all to the question at hand, which revolves around what drops from the tier reward bouncies.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • Cyninja.2954Cyninja.2954 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 12, 2019

    @Crystal Paladin.3871 said:

    @Cyninja.2954 said:

    @Crystal Paladin.3871 said:
    I take back what I said.... Y'day I got a named ascended armor chest while completing TT... My observations are inconclusive... Or it might be related to the fact that I avoided TT,fracs,teq for a week then upon my first TT after a week's break, I got the chest?

    This just in: Breakthrough in research! Scientific analysis and data sets now reliable with only 1 sample size.

    I documented my own experience so ppl can post their experiences too... I couldn't be an acceptable sample size on my own... So I resort to forums... Data from the masses might help a little... And I never said my results were reliable at all...

    Why do ppl react this way??? If that's just a funny remark u made, that's okay... but if u're serious while making that statement, Idk... Dull gloomy world

    I don't know. Why do people make irrational assumptions without any type of scientific approach?

    Record your drops over a period of 3 months (and I mean RECORD as in write them down). Make a table, get ideally some more people you know to do the same. Try to get a data set of at LEAST 500 drops, the more the better. Then come back and formulate a theory to share. Everything else can't be taken serious, and as such I decided to summarize what I just wrote in a snarky 1 sentence response assuming that's what you were after with your 1 drop data set.