[Merged] Black Lion Chests are awful

Yes, I know I don't need cosmetics. I've tried and tried to get the goodies from the BLC. And again like a glutton for pain and disillusionment I bought keys to get last months glider. Got nothing. I bought keys for the current back piece and GOT NOTHING. When the kitten do I eventually get something from the kitten chests?

I've always had terrible luck with those and very rarely buy them aside from gifting them at times to friends I know enjoy them. I've almost always gotten junk. I think the best thing I ever got was a wardrobe unlock. Then today I decided to buy that 10 key package with the 2 scraps before it left the gem store since I usually don't buy keys and figured what the heck. I waited until the patch to use them and got the Hydra Staff Skin on my last key. Sadly it is account bound and I almost never use a staff. That's enough gambling for me for a long time. Maybe I'll buy more sometime again next year.

Are there no glider or backpack skins that you like that aren’t BLC exclusives? I’ve gotten the occasional nice drop from BLCs but I generally enjoy more just buying what I like from the gem store directly.

Perhaps that’s not helpful, but then I don’t think that anyone can actually answer your question anyway!

Yeah, I've gotten the black wings and am currently wearing those. I got them from the gem shop. But the sparkly 'shinies' seem to be in the BLC. : ) I'm also waiting for the 'Wild Magic' to hit the statuette vendor.

Buy BL Keys for the excitement of wondering what you might get, because (spoiler alert), you won't get it.

The odds are only 10% that you'll see anything other than a common drop. Even if you buy 25 keys, there's still over a 7% chance of getting just common drops

So far, everything that has appeared in the BL chests as account bound has become available either through the BL exclusives chest and/or via BL Statuettes. The wait time could be 6 months or much longer. A good many shinies drop unbound, and can be picked up from the Trading Post for far less cost than investing in keys.

Keys are like lotto: often, no one wins. A few people win some decent things. And the vast majority get nothing of interest to them. Do not expect to be lucky; the odds are never in your favor for this sort of thing.

edit: fixed the phrasing, as @Tommo Chocolate.5870 wrote, the odds I calculated showed the chance of getting at least one uncommon or better at just under 93%, leaving over 7% without anything but common; I phrased it incorrectly

There is a reason there is a US Bill trying to be passed to prohibit lootboxs in games children play.

@FONGORE.7410 said:There is a reason there is a US Bill trying to be passed to prohibit lootboxs in games children play.In fact, there is no such bill in the US Congress. A senator announced they were planning to introduce it. They have, as yet, not done so.

I was waiting for the Hydra Staff to get back on the BLC, saved 25 keys for today.Got the staff on the 20th key, and for the lulz i used the last 5. Got the backpack + glider on the last key.TBH, what really bothered me was the waiting for A CHANCE to get the staff on the BLC.

@Malafaia.8903 said:I was waiting for the Hydra Staff to get back on the BLC, saved 25 keys for today.Got the staff on the 20th key, and for the lulz i used the last 5. Got the backpack + glider on the last key.Gz! That's some nice luck :)

TBH, what really bothered me was the waiting for A CHANCE to get the staff on the BLC.

You could have gotten from the BL Exclusives Chest (it's been there for a while, when the chest last appeared). It's also been available for 60 BL statuettes. (Not currently though.)

When you stop trying to get something and get something. Buy things, not chances.

@Trise.2865 said:When you stop trying to get something and get something. Buy things, not chances.

Well you know I would have bought the items I wanted out right, but they weren't offered that way. Maybe if Anet would offer the items like they do with the mount licenses...you pay a bit extra to get exactly what you want rather than deal with RNG.

@The Angle of Deth.2985 said:

Well you know I would have bought the items I wanted out right, but they weren't offered that way.They are, just not when they are first released.

Maybe if Anet would offer the items like they do with the mount licenses...you pay a bit extra to get exactly what you want rather than deal with RNG.You can do that, just not when they are first released.

No one can tell you how many chests you'll have to open to get the back piece you want, and regardless of how many chests you open, you might never get it - that's the nature of RNG. Added to that, ANet doesn't publish the drop rates, so we can't even calculate your probability of getting it if you open a given number of chests (and even if we could, it would only be a probability - there'd be no guarantee).

@"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:The odds are only 10% that you'll see anything other than a common drop. Even if you buy 25 keys, there's still over a 7% chance of getting just a single uncommon or better.

Wait, isn't that saying that there's over a 7% chance of getting only common drops? If each chest has a 10% chance of giving anything other than a common drop, there's a 90% chance of only getting common drops, so for 25 chests the probability of only getting common drops is 0.9^25 ≈ 0.0718, i.e. slightly more than a 7% chance. (Wolfram Alpha has calculated 1 - 0.9^25, i.e. the probability of getting at least one drop that is uncommon or rarer.)

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:No one can tell you how many chests you'll have to open to get the back piece you want, and regardless of how many chests you open, you might never get it - that's the nature of RNG. Added to that, ANet doesn't publish the drop rates, so we can't even calculate your probability of getting it if you open a given number of chests (and even if we could, it would only be a probability - there'd be no guarantee).As worded, that's technically true. On a practical basis, you can calculate that there's e.g. 100 million-to-one odds, which would be fine for anyone playing this game. (Well, except for the costs.)

@"Illconceived Was Na.9781" said:The odds are only 10% that you'll see anything other than a common drop.

Even if you buy 25 keys, there's still over a 7% chance of getting just a single uncommon or better.

Sorry yes, from only 25 chests there's over a 7% chance of getting only common results. I'll fix it above.

I really like the new backpack/glider combo in the chests. I know they are RNG and knew what I was in for. I opened 20 chests and didn't get A SINGLE EXTRA SLOT ROLL. This is not the first time it happened, it doesn't feel uncommon but at least rare. I think there should a guaranteed extra slot roll after like 5 chests without success(a pity timer if you will).

It's the list time I fell for this. I bought all my keys with gold this time but seeing how terrible it turned out I won't be buying any gems soon or ever at all.

/rant

Yesterday I bought the Iron Beast Greatsword (https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Iron_Beast_Greatsword) from the BL Statuette vendor. It was originally released in December 2018 as a BL exclusive uncommon drop. I opened a few chests back then, hoping to get it, but to no avail.

Now about 5 months later, I was able to buy it from a vendor for 60 BL statuettes.

This means nothing, other than if this item showed up at the statuette vendor 5 months after release, it's possible that this new back piece / glider will also become available at the vendor after a similar length of time passes. So keep opening chests, either from purchased keys or map completion / weekly toon, save up the statuettes, and try to be patient :sunglasses:

Don't gamble unless you can deal with loss.

Don't gamble if you can't handle loss.

Just going to copy/pasta myself from another thread posted today:

@"Turkeyspit.3965" said:Yesterday I bought the Iron Beast Greatsword (https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Iron_Beast_Greatsword) from the BL Statuette vendor. It was originally released in December 2018 as a BL exclusive uncommon drop. I opened a few chests back then, hoping to get it, but to no avail.

Now about 5 months later, I was able to buy it from a vendor for 60 BL statuettes.

This means nothing, other than if this item showed up at the statuette vendor 5 months after release, it's possible that this new back piece / glider will also become available at the vendor after a similar length of time passes. So keep opening chests, either from purchased keys or map completion / weekly toon, save up the statuettes, and try to be patient :sunglasses:

I opened one chest and had the new backpack glider combo.

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:Just going to copy/pasta myself from another thread posted today:

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:Yesterday I bought the Iron Beast Greatsword (

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Iron_Beast_Greatsword

) from the BL Statuette vendor. It was originally released in December 2018 as a BL exclusive uncommon drop. I opened a few chests back then, hoping to get it, but to no avail.

Now about 5 months later, I was able to buy it from a vendor for 60 BL statuettes.

This means nothing, other than if this item showed up at the statuette vendor 5 months after release, it's possible that this new back piece / glider will also become available at the vendor after a similar length of time passes. So keep opening chests, either from purchased keys or map completion / weekly toon, save up the statuettes, and try to be patient :sunglasses:

Fine and good, but let's compare prices (and fair prices, mind you). A standard unique skin averages what, 700 gems when sold individually on the BLTC? 700 gems buys you about 6 keys. Great, that's about 10 bucks for Anet -- much deserved.

In those 6 keys, only the luckiest of the lucky will get their desired skin. The rest will likely get mostly trash. What you're proposing, is waiting months and buying more than 60 keys to get 60 statuettes. Yikes. That's 100 bucks and likely frustration.

I shouldn't need to say 60 keys cost thousands of gems. I usually defend black lion chests, but I believe their drop rates for the gear people want needs to be increased.

The frustration and money sink is quite literally going to force people who may spend $100 over time and continue to be happy with their purchases to stop spending at all on the game.

Stop buying keys. Stop making RNG profitable. If you want to make purchases to support the game, only buy items, not chances at an item.

@Critical Lag.9075 said:I really like the new backpack/glider combo in the chests. I know they are RNG and knew what I was in for. I opened 20 chests and didn't get A SINGLE EXTRA SLOT ROLL. This is not the first time it happened, it doesn't feel uncommon but at least rare. I think there should a guaranteed extra slot roll after like 5 chests without success(a pity timer if you will).

It's the list time I fell for this. I bought all my keys with gold this time but seeing how terrible it turned out I won't be buying any gems soon or ever at all.

/rant

That's unfortunate that RNGesus denied you the thing you wanted with a measly 20 key attempt.I didn't have any interest in either the glider/backpack, nor the Hydra staff. I got them both from the 5 keys I received from the War Eternal week three chest.

The moral of the story is, RNG is RNG

@Mbelch.9028 said:Fine and good, but let's compare prices (and fair prices, mind you). A standard unique skin averages what, 700 gems when sold individually on the BLTC? 700 gems buys you about 6 keys. Great, that's about 10 bucks for Anet -- much deserved.

In those 6 keys, only the luckiest of the lucky will get their desired skin. The rest will likely get mostly trash. What you're proposing, is waiting months and buying more than 60 keys to get 60 statuettes. Yikes. That's 100 bucks and likely frustration.

I shouldn't need to say 60 keys cost thousands of gems. I usually defend black lion chests, but I believe their drop rates for the gear people want needs to be increased.

The frustration and money sink is quite literally going to force people who may spend $100 over time and continue to be happy with their purchases to stop spending at all on the game.

I'm not proposing anything of the kind. I had 109 statuettes in my bank before the patch launched. Not a single one was obtained via a key I purchased from the gem store. In fact, I have never purchased a key from the gem store - ever. I prefer to spend my gems on things like mount skins, gliders, etc.

All my keys are acquired either from doing map completions (20% ish chance?) or from a weekly key toon, which when you use Tome of Knowledge, takes about 15mins of your time. So at the very least, I can earn 52 keys per year for free, but as most of my alts are hovering around 30-40% world completion, still plenty of opportunities for me to get lucky and receive an extra key.

No question this takes time and patience, but my Charr Warrior now has a cool GS skin that cost me 0$ and 0 gold to acquire.

So if you want the BL item right now, you take your chances with RNG; some players get what they want out of the 1st key, others the 25th, and others after never get it. Think I opened about 20 chests during this last session hoping for the Hummingbird, but I didn't get it, while some guildies got theirs with less than 10 keys each. RNG is RNG.

But if you can live with not getting it right away, there remains a chance (again, only ANET knows what they will release to the vendor) it will one day become available from the vendor, so if RNG isn't going your way, or you want to use free keys vs. purchased ones, just save up those BL statuettes.

As an aside, my wife who plays very casually (like logs in 1-2 times a week) purchased Marjory's Outfit a week ago when it was available at the vendor for 30 statuettes, and she doesn't do a weekly key toon like me, nor has she bought any keys from the store, and her account is about a year old. Frankly if she was able to acquire a gem store item with BL statuettes, pretty much anyone can.

I'm not defending BL chests nor will I denounce them. They are what they are, and nobody is forced to participate / buy them. Doing so is a choice the player makes, and a choice the player has to live with. I'm simply pointing out that there is another way (for the most part) to get at least some of the items introduced in those chests. The pathway taken to doing so is up to the player.

The house always wins.