"We are planning to release raids with more regularity this season." - ANet Jason — Guild Wars 2 Forums
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"We are planning to release raids with more regularity this season." - ANet Jason

Nafets.1238Nafets.1238 Member ✭✭✭

A statement done more than 1 and a half year ago, the first day Daybreak came out, November 28, 2017. claiming that raids are planned to come with more regularity this season. Now, as the season recently ended we can see ANet's plans change the same pace as direction of the wind. The guy who made that statement has left the raids teams and joined Living World team.

Now there was another statement made more recently about raids and fractals playing hot potato: one lw episode new fractal, one lw episode new raid.
So, ArenaNet, is this still true?

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Comments

  • Blaeys.3102Blaeys.3102 Member ✭✭✭

    Everything changed with the dev post following the recent layoffs - affecting pretty much every part of the game.

    In all likelihood, they are reassessing their priorities for the game and will need to focus the lion's share of the resources on those areas the larger groups participate in - namely open world pve and WvW. Those are the areas that set the GW2 brand apart from other MMOs. GW2 raids will never be able to compete with MMOs who focus end game there. The devs are better off putting more and more energy into what makes the game unique - establishing a niche in the market that doesn't really include a heavy raid focus.

    I know it isn't what people in this subforum want to hear, but I would expect raid development to (justifiably) slow considerably given what has taken place the past six to eight months.

  • derd.6413derd.6413 Member ✭✭✭✭

    anet was also planning to release HoT with a full set of new legendaries.

    ppl got to understand that when anet says they're planning something it means they want to do it not will do it

    I Have No friends, so I Must pug

  • Blocki.4931Blocki.4931 Member ✭✭✭✭

    And the most recent statement about this was that they were not necessarily going to pair up a raid or fractal release with the LS patch itself, like we get this time around. That potentially means less time between a release if they get it done but have to wait for an episode patch to drop it.

  • Ayrilana.1396Ayrilana.1396 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 5, 2019

    Define “regularity”. Like with how often we get new fractals?

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Nafets.1238 said:
    A statement done more than 1 and a half year ago, the first day Daybreak came out, November 28, 2017. claiming that raids are planned to come with more regularity this season. Now, as the season recently ended we can see ANet's plans change the same pace as direction of the wind. The guy who made that statement has left the raids teams and joined Living World team.

    Now there was another statement made more recently about raids and fractals playing hot potato: one lw episode new fractal, one lw episode new raid.
    So, ArenaNet, is this still true?

    Heart of Thorns was released October 23, 2015
    We got 3 Raid wings in-between the release and the start of Season 3, this period lasted from November 2015, up to June 2016 or 3 Wings in 8 months
    Season 3 started on July 26, 2016 and ended on July 25, 2017
    We got a single Raid wing in that time, or 1 Raid wing in 12 months
    Combined, the total is 4 Raid wings in 20 months, from November 2015 up to July 2017

    Path of Fire was released September 22, 2017
    Season 4 started on November 28, 2017 (unless you count the Halloween repeat event)
    Until the end of Season 4 we got 2 Raid Wings, or better 3 including the upcoming one which is still part of Season 4
    That's 3 Raid Wings in one Season, or 3 Raid Wings in 20 Months (November 2017 - June 2019)

    In the Heart of Thorns era we got a burst of many wings quickly, then very little wings afterwards (3 wings in 8 months, then 1 wing in 12)
    In the Path of Fire era the raid releases are more regular (compared to season 3) but less regular as in the time before it. Maybe instead of regularly they should've used the word consistently.

    Worth noting that Season 3 had 6 episodes and it lasted 12 months while Season 4 also had 6 episodes but it lasted 20 months, which means ALL releases for the game slowed down after Path of Fire, so that 3 Raid wings compared to 4 Raid wings isn't really a bad metric, given how their entire development process slowed down considerably.

  • ProtoGunner.4953ProtoGunner.4953 Member ✭✭✭✭

    It's still hilarious that the complete reverse happened: they have released the least in this period: 1 raid wing within more than 1,5 years. Absolutely hilarious :joy: And this has nothing to do with layoffs. This was looong before.

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Ayrilana.1396 said:
    Define “regularity”. Like with how often we get new fractals?

    It's interesting to note that we got the same amount of Fractals after the two expansions.
    In 20 months after the release of Heart of Thorns we got 3 new Fractals
    In 20 months after the release of Path of Fire we got 3 new Fractals
    Now 2 of the Fractals we got with Heart of Thorns had a CM mode, which means we got more Fractals during that period, but who knows now that Raids/Fractals won't have to wait for delayed episodes, we might get more of them.

  • My expectation is that future wings are going to be released every 9-10 months. Why? Because that's been consistent for the last six wings.

    I've never had much interest in what ANet says they would like to do; I'm always more keen to hear what they are actually doing. And so far, I've yet to see anyone say, "we have drastically changed the manner in which we plan, test, and deliver raid (and fractal) instances and therefore we'll be launching them more often, starting with..." In the unlikely event that happens, I'll be happy to remind ANet of that.

    In the meantime, I don't plan to worry about it until April 2020.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • Talindra.4958Talindra.4958 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I commented few as I read through. admin feel free to remove if it is out of topic my apology. no intention to cause upset of any individual

    Death is Energy [DIE] & Bongbong [BB] in FoW server
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  • Shiyo.3578Shiyo.3578 Member ✭✭✭✭

    Hopefully this new raid wing does so bad it makes them move the raid team to dungeons or some form of new content that more than 0.01% of the player base plays.

  • Illconceived Was Na.9781Illconceived Was Na.9781 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 8, 2019

    more than 0.01% of the player base plays.

    Done... by leaving the raid team in place

    According to GW2 Efficiency:

    edit: thanks to @maddoctor.2738 for pointing out I had posted stats on the wrong Wing 1 boss, and to @Linken.6345 for reminding me that Samarog is no demon

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    You posted Vale Guardian kill ratio and not Sabetha for Wing 1!
    Why not post all starting boss kill stats as well as the last boss stats? I'm too lazy to do it myself.

  • Illconceived Was Na.9781Illconceived Was Na.9781 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 7, 2019

    @maddoctor.2738 said:
    You posted Vale Guardian kill ratio and not Sabetha for Wing 1!
    Why not post all starting boss kill stats as well as the last boss stats?

    Oh whoops. I'll fix that. I've fixed it. Thanks for pointing the inconsistency.
    First boss? It's not really on the topic of raid participation.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • Linken.6345Linken.6345 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 8, 2019

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    @maddoctor.2738 said:
    You posted Vale Guardian kill ratio and not Sabetha for Wing 1!
    Why not post all starting boss kill stats as well as the last boss stats?

    Oh whoops. I'll fix that. I've fixed it. Thanks for pointing the inconsistency.
    First boss? It's not really on the topic of raid participation.

    If your doing end bosses shouldent you post Deimos for wing 4 instead of samarog

  • Obtena.7952Obtena.7952 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 8, 2019

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:
    My expectation is that future wings are going to be released every 9-10 months. Why? Because that's been consistent for the last six wings.

    I've never had much interest in what ANet says they would like to do; I'm always more keen to hear what they are actually doing. And so far, I've yet to see anyone say, "we have drastically changed the manner in which we plan, test, and deliver raid (and fractal) instances and therefore we'll be launching them more often, starting with..." In the unlikely event that happens, I'll be happy to remind ANet of that.

    In the meantime, I don't plan to worry about it until April 2020.

    What? you're using data to come to a sound conclusion? how dare you in a complaint thread.

    Sarcasm aside, people would be saving themselves lots of trouble if they took the time to look at and attempt to understand the trends of the game and the development cycles. No sense in complaining about it; it won't make it come any faster.

  • Illconceived Was Na.9781Illconceived Was Na.9781 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 8, 2019

    @Linken.6345 said:

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    @maddoctor.2738 said:
    You posted Vale Guardian kill ratio and not Sabetha for Wing 1!
    Why not post all starting boss kill stats as well as the last boss stats?

    Oh whoops. I'll fix that. I've fixed it. Thanks for pointing the inconsistency.
    First boss? It's not really on the topic of raid participation.

    If your doing end bosses shouldent you post Deimos for wing 4 instead of samarog

    Of course I should. I was just... um, testing you. (not the forum readers, just @Linken.6345)
    sigh
    Fixed it; thanks for letting me know. :)

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • CptAurellian.9537CptAurellian.9537 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    more than 0.01% of the player base plays.

    Done... by leaving the raid team in place

    According to GW2 Efficiency:

    edit: thanks to @maddoctor.2738 for pointing out I had posted stats on the wrong Wing 1 boss, and to @Linken.6345 for reminding me that Samarog is no demon

    And then you need to put the efficiency numbers into perspective. 5.1% have defeated Qadim, but it's also just 31% who have finished LS4E5 (not 6, that's even less). Efficiency contains a massive amount of "dead" accounts that haven't been played for a while. While it may be biased towards more hardcore players and thus over-represent raiders by a bit, it's probably safe to assume that about 10-15% of the population play the current raids. That's a niche, but niches are needed to retain players in any MMO. I'd expect raid development to more or less keep the pace it has had since W4 - the niche size probably doesn't justify a substantial acceleration, but it would also be foolish to send off 5-10% of one's player base by killing their niche.

    R.I.P. Build Templates, 15.10.2019

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @CptAurellian.9537 said:
    And then you need to put the efficiency numbers into perspective.

    Perspective is probably more important than the data itself.
    Mythright Gambit was released with A Star to Guide Us

    Raid first boss: 8.5%, last boss: 5%
    Story first instance: 40%, last instance 35%

    The requiem collection was finished by 2.5%, half than the number of players that killed the last boss of wing 6.
    Mastery of the episode was achieved by 6.5%, more people killed the first raid boss of wing 6 than finished the meta achievement of episode 4

    Raids are niche content, but so are those meta achievements and collection achievements.

  • Taygus.4571Taygus.4571 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    more than 0.01% of the player base plays.

    Done... by leaving the raid team in place

    According to GW2 Efficiency:

    edit: thanks to @maddoctor.2738 for pointing out I had posted stats on the wrong Wing 1 boss, and to @Linken.6345 for reminding me that Samarog is no demon

    That shows there's been a steady decline of those who manage to complete the content .. likely that shows a decline in the numbers playing it.

  • @Taygus.4571 said:

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    more than 0.01% of the player base plays.

    Done... by leaving the raid team in place

    According to GW2 Efficiency:

    edit: thanks to @maddoctor.2738 for pointing out I had posted stats on the wrong Wing 1 boss, and to @Linken.6345 for reminding me that Samarog is no demon

    That shows there's been a steady decline of those who manage to complete the content .. likely that shows a decline in the numbers playing it.

    There are always stronger numbers for older content, if for no other reason than most people complete content in chronological order. In the absence of other data, I wouldn't speculate about the specific reasons for the drop.

    What would be meaningful is to look back at what these same numbers were at the time right before the release of the new wing. My recollection is that all of the numbers have gone up since the last time I posted a similar set of numbers. GW2/E doesn't have a way back machine for this, although I might be able to dredge up an old post to verify.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Taygus.4571 said:
    That shows there's been a steady decline of those who manage to complete the content .. likely that shows a decline in the numbers playing it.

    There is a steady decline in those playing in general

    Daybreak was finished by 47%
    A Bug in the System was finished by 42%
    Long Live the Lich was finished by 39%
    A Star to Guide Us was finished by 35%
    All or Nothing was finished by 31%

    Those are just for finishing the content, the mastery of each episode is more telling
    Daybreak mastery: 10%
    A Bug in the System: 7%
    Long Live the Lich: 6%
    A Star to Guide Us: 6.5%
    All or Nothing: 3.5%

    Wing 5 stats:
    First boss: 10%, last boss: 7%

    Wing 6 stats:
    Raid first boss: 8.5%, last boss: 5%

    It appears that this so called "casual majority" the only thing it does is playing the story of an episode. Not caring about achievements, collections and such

  • Taygus.4571Taygus.4571 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 8, 2019

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Taygus.4571 said:
    That shows there's been a steady decline of those who manage to complete the content .. likely that shows a decline in the numbers playing it.

    There is a steady decline in those playing in general

    Daybreak was finished by 47%
    A Bug in the System was finished by 42%
    Long Live the Lich was finished by 39%
    A Star to Guide Us was finished by 35%
    All or Nothing was finished by 31%

    Those are just for finishing the content, the mastery of each episode is more telling
    Daybreak mastery: 10%
    A Bug in the System: 7%
    Long Live the Lich: 6%
    A Star to Guide Us: 6.5%
    All or Nothing: 3.5%

    Wing 5 stats:
    First boss: 10%, last boss: 7%

    Wing 6 stats:
    Raid first boss: 8.5%, last boss: 5%

    It appears that this so called "casual majority" the only thing it does is playing the story of an episode. Not caring about achievements, collections and such

    I'm in that casual group. I play 1-3 hours a day but don't care about story/meta achieves. Mainly cause theres always a few hardcore achieves, so achieve completion doesn't tell you anything about number of casuals playing.

    Looks like story is the most popular content and probably open world meta events (not achieves)

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Taygus.4571 said:
    I'm in that casual group. I play 1-3 hours a day but don't care about story/meta achieves. Mainly cause theres always a few hardcore achieves, so achieve completion doesn't tell you anything about number of casuals playing.
    Looks like story is the most popular content and probably open world meta events (not achieves)

    As for the meta achievements they are built in a way that you can skip some and still get completion, there should always be enough to finish the meta achievements without requiring the hardest ones for completion. Full completion of the meta achievements (doing everything) isn't tracked but should be a very very low percentage, even by Raid participation standards.

    It's not surprising that story instances are what most people like but I'd wager a guess that it's also the most expensive type of content to make for Arenanet, which means the game cannot survive by releasing only story episodes every 3 weeks. Then we have the ludicrous open world meta events with great rewards, that the players can farm daily while watching Netflix. The idea is to keep people engaged for long periods of time to be exposed to new gem store releases. But lots of players aren't happy playing 1 hour to finish the story then quitting the game until the next episode, nor enjoy massive open world farm fiestas. Which is why niche types of content exist, remove all the different niches and see who's left playing. Although for many the crusade is against Raids, however it's more than clear many other aspects of the game (collections/meta achievements for example) have a similarly low participation, yet nobody advocates removing those (or reducing them) for some reason.

  • Taygus.4571Taygus.4571 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Taygus.4571 said:
    I'm in that casual group. I play 1-3 hours a day but don't care about story/meta achieves. Mainly cause theres always a few hardcore achieves, so achieve completion doesn't tell you anything about number of casuals playing.
    Looks like story is the most popular content and probably open world meta events (not achieves)

    As for the meta achievements they are built in a way that you can skip some and still get completion, there should always be enough to finish the meta achievements without requiring the hardest ones for completion.

    Not in my experience. I struggle quite a bit with them, and as of yet, haven't completed any LS meta achieves.

    It's not surprising that story instances are what most people like but I'd wager a guess that it's also the most expensive type of content to make for Arenanet, which means the game cannot survive by releasing only story episodes every 3 weeks. Then we have the ludicrous open world meta events with great rewards, that the players can farm daily while watching Netflix. The idea is to keep people engaged for long periods of time to be exposed to new gem store releases. But lots of players aren't happy playing 1 hour to finish the story then quitting the game until the next episode, nor enjoy massive open world farm fiestas. Which is why niche types of content exist, remove all the different niches and see who's left playing. Although for many the crusade is against Raids, however it's more than clear many other aspects of the game (collections/meta achievements for example) have a similarly low participation, yet nobody advocates removing those (or reducing them) for some reason.

    I'm not for reducing raids. Just pointing out that it probably doesn't benefit Anet to invest more into them.

  • Voltekka.2375Voltekka.2375 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Blaeys.3102 said:
    Everything changed with the dev post following the recent layoffs - affecting pretty much every part of the game.

    In all likelihood, they are reassessing their priorities for the game and will need to focus the lion's share of the resources on those areas the larger groups participate in - namely open world pve and WvW. Those are the areas that set the GW2 brand apart from other MMOs. GW2 raids will never be able to compete with MMOs who focus end game there. The devs are better off putting more and more energy into what makes the game unique - establishing a niche in the market that doesn't really include a heavy raid focus.

    I know it isn't what people in this subforum want to hear, but I would expect raid development to (justifiably) slow considerably given what has taken place the past six to eight months.

    WvW is a priority? How? Without any updates for years?

  • It might seem completely contradictory, but I feel the layoffs have increased dev activity, not decreased it. Ever since those layoffs, there's been more communication, more news about upcoming plans, more activity in game with rush weeks and current events (which have been just as fickle as raid releases). It's like slimming down the team and dropping the side projects has refocused the dev team on GW2 only. So I wouldn't be surprised if new Raid releases (and hopefully also new Fractals) would become more frequent, if not a regular thing (one can hope). Before 2019 it always felt to me as if ANet had a lot in mind, but were actually focusing on other projects, so not much came out of those plans. Now that the team has been slimmed down, side projects abandoned and development refocused on GW2 everything feels very different. To be frank, I haven't seen ANet like this since the dawn of GW2.

    And Raid development slow? It's already extremely slow. Slowing it down even more is equal to cancelling the development of new Raid content completely. And that is not a justifiable development, percentages be damned (besides, that's all relative, literally). Raids (and Fractals) are part of the game and there's a community surrounding that content. Abandoning that would mean losing players. Focusing only on "casual" content will not increase the playerbase, because that also focuses only on one specific group. ANet is perfectly capable of catering to all the sub-communities in game, and that includes the Raiding community. I know people want dungeons back and I wouldn't say no to that either, but I think it's more work (i.e. requires more people and/or more time) to correct and update content that has been abandoned 6 years ago than build new content. And don't forget that GW2 is not a new and shiny game anymore. It's nearly 7 years old. That's not a factor that is likely to draw people to a MMO in such numbers that it will make a considerable difference.

    All in all I think we need to give it a year, or at least until the end of 2019, to see what the changes to ANet have resulted in. It's too early right now to say anything conclusive about it. MMO's are a long term development process and the 4 months that have passed since the layoffs are not enough to draw any definitive conclusions just yet. But as far as I can see, it has had a positive effect on game development and dev communication, so I'm hopeful for the future that they can now finally grow into a steady cadence and live up to the expectations they created in the past.

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭

    2 releases is a regular cadence, no matter how long the time between them

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 11, 2019

    @CptAurellian.9537 said:

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    more than 0.01% of the player base plays.

    Done... by leaving the raid team in place

    According to GW2 Efficiency:

    edit: thanks to @maddoctor.2738 for pointing out I had posted stats on the wrong Wing 1 boss, and to @Linken.6345 for reminding me that Samarog is no demon

    And then you need to put the efficiency numbers into perspective. 5.1% have defeated Qadim, but it's also just 31% who have finished LS4E5 (not 6, that's even less). Efficiency contains a massive amount of "dead" accounts that haven't been played for a while. While it may be biased towards more hardcore players and thus over-represent raiders by a bit, it's probably safe to assume that about 10-15% of the population play the current raids. That's a niche, but niches are needed to retain players in any MMO. I'd expect raid development to more or less keep the pace it has had since W4 - the niche size probably doesn't justify a substantial acceleration, but it would also be foolish to send off 5-10% of one's player base by killing their niche.

    Erm.

    According to gw2eff, 80% own POF while 93% own HOT. Unless you are saying that 7% drop from W4 to W5 is part of that 13% that didn't buy POF, I think that is a bit too much estimation. Afterall, gw2 isn't just about raid.

    Furthermore W4 to W5 7% drop is equaivlent to a 50% decrease in activity while W5 to W6 is another 33% decrease in activity. I would say it has little to do with people stop buying POF or stop playing but rather the increasing difficulty of raid and frequent balance change which make people relearn rotation so often are pushing people away.

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 11, 2019

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Furthermore W4 to W5 7% drop is equaivlent to a 50% decrease in activity while W5 to W6 is another 33% decrease in activity. I would say it has nothing to do with people stop buying POF or stop playing but rather the increasing difficulty of raid and frequent balance change which make people relearn rotation so often are pushing people away.

    How many bought POF and HOT is irrelevant.
    80% bought POF, only 62% finished it. That's a drop of 18% that never bothered to finish the expansion that they bought.

    Daybreak was finished by 47%, further drop of 15%. In total 33% (of the total) didn't bother to finish Daybreak, that drop isn't an effect of Raids, but rather the rest of the game being incapable of keeping the interest of the players so they finish the story, and then stay for the first episode story. Notice that W5 was released here, it wasn't available at the release of POF. 10% killed the first boss of W5, 7% killed the final boss of W5, 47% completed the story, these are the relevant numbers
    21% of those that completed the story killed the first boss, 15% killed the last boss.

    To compare:
    A Star to Guide Us was finished by 35%, W6 first boss was killed by 8.5% and final boss by 5%‎. Or
    24% of those that completed the story killed the first boss, 14% killed the last boss.
    Very comparable numbers to W5, there is no decrease in activity between W5 and W6, when you use relative numbers.

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 12, 2019

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Furthermore W4 to W5 7% drop is equaivlent to a 50% decrease in activity while W5 to W6 is another 33% decrease in activity. I would say it has nothing to do with people stop buying POF or stop playing but rather the increasing difficulty of raid and frequent balance change which make people relearn rotation so often are pushing people away.

    How many bought POF and HOT is irrelevant.
    80% bought POF, only 62% finished it. That's a drop of 18% that never bothered to finish the expansion that they bought.

    Daybreak was finished by 47%, further drop of 15%. In total 33% (of the total) didn't bother to finish Daybreak, that drop isn't an effect of Raids, but rather the rest of the game being incapable of keeping the interest of the players so they finish the story, and then stay for the first episode story. Notice that W5 was released here, it wasn't available at the release of POF. 10% killed the first boss of W5, 7% killed the final boss of W5, 47% completed the story, these are the relevant numbers
    21% of those that completed the story killed the first boss, 15% killed the last boss.

    To compare:
    A Star to Guide Us was finished by 35%, W6 first boss was killed by 8.5% and final boss by 5%‎. Or
    24% of those that completed the story killed the first boss, 14% killed the last boss.
    Very comparable numbers to W5, there is no decrease in activity between W5 and W6, when you use relative numbers.

    Finish and unable to access the contents are different things. Do you need to finish it to do raid? Nope.

    If one intent to look for specific correlation, you can always find it and justify it. However, one must never forget basic requirements.
    Right now you are just intentionally looking for specific correlation. However, what are the chances that of these people that you intentionally narrowed out are actually doing raid?

    A 50% drop is a huge drop and so is a 33% drop. It isn't a mere decline in activity where people got bored and left.

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • The reason for looking at numbers in the first place:
    Someone claimed that raid participation was negligible and others have claimed that raids are seeing a steeper participation decline than PvE. What numbers we have available don't support either statement.

    For example (at the time of my original research):

    • Wing 5 completion: 7% and LS4.1 completion is about 47% (while closer to 57% started it).
    • Wing 6 completion is 5% and LS4.5 completion is about 31% (and closer to 35% began it).

    7:47 is near 15%; and 5:31 is closer to 16%, indicating that Wing 6 is relatively more popular than Wing 5, not less.
    In any case, 15-16% seems pretty good for content that people claim is too hard for the game.

    It's normally up to people making a claim to support it. In this case, I stepped in because I was hoping to refocus the conversation back on the OP's original point: what's the future release cadence for raids. I thought presenting the actual data (such as we have) would help.


    Below: some gory details of the evidence and which data we should consider, and why we should compare to LS participation.

    A 50% drop is a huge drop and so is a 33% drop. It isn't a mere decline in activity where people got bored and left.

    Except you're assuming all things are equal, which they aren't. For instance: LS participation has also declined.

    LS4.1 is perpetually going to have higher numbers than LS4.2: everyone who was there for its launch plus all of those proceeding chronologically (which is usually a large fraction, if not majority of players).
    Accordingly, we can't say why the numbers dropped, only that (a) we expect them to drop and (b) they did drop.

    Since we don't have access to raw data (how many hours played or how many online at peak times etc), it's helpful to compare LS participation to Raid participation, especially since we're addressing the unsupported claim that not many raid. If raid participation is declining due to disinterest in raiding (rather than game malaise), then we'd expect that raid participation numbers would drop more than the numbers from LS.

    Spoiler alert: that's not what we're seeing.

    Since we can't actually tell how many people are trying to raid, we look at how many killed the ultimate boss. It's a little arbitrary while still being in the right ballpark. We can't tell how many people are doing PvE generally, so as a proxy we look at LS participation. That's less arbitrary because there are many, many, many more resources devoted to the story than to raids: there's a single raid (or raid|fractal) team of (max) a half-dozen full-time equivalents and at least three LS teams (with we believe more than 6 FTE).

    Since we are looking at final boss for each wing, it's appropriate to look at completing the corresponding LS episode. In both cases, we're looking for a proxy to count those interested in specialized content. And since GW2 efficiency only sees some participants, it's better to look at percentages than raw numbers

    Finally, the appropriate comparisons are:

    • Wing 1 (Nov 2015) with HoT (Oct 2015)
    • Wing 2 (Jan '16) with ... well nothing big in PvE that month
    • Wing 3 (June '16) with LS3.1 (July '16)
    • Wing 4 (Feb '17) with LS3.4 (same)
    • Wing 5 (Nov '17) with LS4.1 (same)
    • Wing 6 (Sep '18) with LS4.4 (same)

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Right now you are just intentionally looking for specific correlation. However, what are the chances that of these people that you intentionally narrowed out are actually doing raid?

    I'm willing to bet the number of players who haven't even finished POF, yet Raid, is negligible, same with those that don't bother to finish the episode story. This is anecdotal, but every single raider I've met so far, not only has finished POF, but have played every single episode so far, being active and loyal players to the game.

    Imagine you have 10000 players playing and after a few months 9000 stop playing, so you are left with 1000 players. Then you release a Raid and get 100 players to play it. Is it a success or not? Compared to the original players, only 1% played it, so it's not successful. Compared to what you have, 10% played it, which makes it far better. Episode rates are the best way of filtering active players.

    Although you are right, they can be misleading, because they contain players that finish the story and then log out and wait for the next episode to be released, or go back to farming and not bother with the new content anymore. How many that finished the episode, simply did that? We don't know, but it's the data we have.

  • lare.5129lare.5129 Member ✭✭✭✭

    I was finishing only first wing , try others a little bit, don't see last bose from last wing.
    Don't have any plan kill first boss in newest wing.
    I have enough content from other: meta, word boss, guild runs, fractals, collections, spvp, .. If I get more time I add wvw to my trips.
    So raids I put them at end of priority, also may be to hard to close all achievements in that raid part, so I pref don't start that at all.
    But I very like what they do raids content for other players!

    want solid balance ? - play chess.

  • zealex.9410zealex.9410 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Ayrilana.1396 said:
    Define “regularity”. Like with how often we get new fractals?

    It's interesting to note that we got the same amount of Fractals after the two expansions.
    In 20 months after the release of Heart of Thorns we got 3 new Fractals
    In 20 months after the release of Path of Fire we got 3 new Fractals
    Now 2 of the Fractals we got with Heart of Thorns had a CM mode, which means we got more Fractals during that period, but who knows now that Raids/Fractals won't have to wait for delayed episodes, we might get more of them.

    You should also count fractal reworks in that as well.

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Right now you are just intentionally looking for specific correlation. However, what are the chances that of these people that you intentionally narrowed out are actually doing raid?

    I'm willing to bet the number of players who haven't even finished POF, yet Raid, is negligible, same with those that don't bother to finish the episode story. This is anecdotal, but every single raider I've met so far, not only has finished POF, but have played every single episode so far, being active and loyal players to the game.

    Imagine you have 10000 players playing and after a few months 9000 stop playing, so you are left with 1000 players. Then you release a Raid and get 100 players to play it. Is it a success or not? Compared to the original players, only 1% played it, so it's not successful. Compared to what you have, 10% played it, which makes it far better. Episode rates are the best way of filtering active players.

    Although you are right, they can be misleading, because they contain players that finish the story and then log out and wait for the next episode to be released, or go back to farming and not bother with the new content anymore. How many that finished the episode, simply did that? We don't know, but it's the data we have.

    Unfortunately, I don't bet, which is why I don't make that kind of assumptions and try to use the least bias correlation possible.

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • Vinceman.4572Vinceman.4572 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:
    Raid activity decreased 15% and you make it a big deal. Open World/Story activity decreased by 50%, what does that mean?

    I assume: Game is ded. :P

    R.I.P. Build Templates, 15.10.2019

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2019

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:
    What would be meaningful is to look back at what these same numbers were at the time right before the release of the new wing. My recollection is that all of the numbers have gone up since the last time I posted a similar set of numbers. GW2/E doesn't have a way back machine for this, although I might be able to dredge up an old post to verify.

    Unfortunately I don't have stats from before the release of Mythright Gambit, but I found these stats from an old post of mine from December 20, 2018:
    Daybreak: 54.323% / 44.326% (first instance / last instance)
    Twilight Oasis: 17.485% / 10.216% (easier achievement / harder achievement)
    Hall of Chains: 9.570% / 6.645% (first boss / last boss)
    Long Live the Lich: 43.924% / 34.824% (first instance / last instance)
    Deepstone: 23.420% / 13.252% (easier achievement / harder achievement)
    A Star to Guide Us: 32.544% / 27.109% (first instance / last instance)
    Mythwright Gambit: 7.343% / 4.326% (first boss / last boss)
    Freezie: 10.818% / 7.690% (finished / snowball achievement)

    6 months old data. Now that I think about it, keeping them stored and revising every 6-months might be a good idea.

    Edit: I got around to use the current data (June 13, 2019) to compare with the December 20, 2018 data, also arranged the above based on their release date

    Daybreak: 57.008% / 47.104% (first instance / last instance)
    Hall of Chains: 9.913% / 6.949% (first boss / last boss)
    Long Live the Lich: 48.550% / 39.728% (first instance / last instance)
    A Star to Guide Us: 40.292%% / 35.556% (first instance / last instance)
    Mythwright Gambit: 8.541% / 5.111% (first boss / last boss)
    All or Nothing: 35.843% / 31.300% (first instance / last instance)
    War Eternal: 31.463% / 28.157% (first instance / last instance)

  • Yasi.9065Yasi.9065 Member ✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2019

    @Talindra.4958 said:
    its good that they slow it down. cos they need to cater for the greater community, and that is where players who spend real money from.

    Ever since raids released, Ive raided - a lot. So you could say, Im a pure-blooded raider. Rest of the game doesnt really interest me, except maybe fractals once in a while. Ive spend > 3k Euros on the game according to my paypal records.
    How much did you spend? How much do those farming silverwastes, mussels, wood, metas or istan spend?

    Back to topic: Who says there will be another raid? Im still very much in doubt of that, since w7 most likely was the last PoF raid, and the next expansion is at least 2 years away.

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Yasi.9065 said:
    Back to topic: Who says there will be another raid? Im still very much in doubt of that, since w7 most likely was the last PoF raid, and the next expansion is at least 2 years away.

    Any source about that??? For all we know W7 is the last Season 4 Raid and Season 5 will get another set.

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Unfortunately, I don't bet, which is why I don't make that kind of assumptions and try to use the least bias correlation possible.

    OK let's try this again, one last time.

    W5 to W6 is another 33% decrease in activity. I would say it has little to do with people stop buying POF or stop playing but rather the increasing difficulty of raid and frequent balance change which make people relearn rotation so often are pushing people away.

    Since you are talking about "activity", the relevant stats are: W5: 10%, W6: 8.5%, that's not a 33% decrease in activity, it's a 15% drop in activity.
    Let's say that you are correct and that 15% drop in Raid activity between W5 and W6 is not because people stop playing the game, but because of the increasing difficulty of the raids and the balance changes. Explain then how from 80% that bought POF only 40% went to Jahai Bluffs? That's a 50% reduction in player activity in the open world/story parts of the game. Is it because Jahai Bluffs is so much harder than the rest of POF?

    Raid activity decreased 15% and you make it a big deal. Open World/Story activity decreased by 50%, what does that mean?

    I don't know where you get the statistic again. I do however is referring to the one posted previously on this thread which wrote W4: 14% then W5:7% then W6:5%.
    I do refer to 14% to 7% as 50% drop.
    I do refer to 7% to 5% as 33% drop, though more accurately 30%.

    You have been bringing out statistic that favor your argument while me on the other hand, use a statistic that is posted here by other users. Would you not say that you are using bias correlation?

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Yasi.9065 said:
    Back to topic: Who says there will be another raid? Im still very much in doubt of that, since w7 most likely was the last PoF raid, and the next expansion is at least 2 years away.

    Any source about that???

    As far as i know, there's no source whatsoever about any raids past wing 7, or any expac past PoF. So, at best we can only guess about those - and while some guesses (like the possibility they aren't working an any expac right now) seem highly reasonable based on what we know, others (about any future raids) are far less solid.

    I mean, i'm quite certain that Raids won't get more resources dedicated to it, i think that they'd very probably get their resources reduced (which may impact the release schedule), and it wouldn't surprise me if they just plain got cancelled after wing 7, but that's simply my take on the situation - it's hardly confirmed, and my basis for this (especially for the last point) is far more nebulous than the one for my lack of expectations towards future expac.

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • Talindra.4958Talindra.4958 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Yasi.9065 said:

    @Talindra.4958 said:
    its good that they slow it down. cos they need to cater for the greater community, and that is where players who spend real money from.

    Ever since raids released, Ive raided - a lot. So you could say, Im a pure-blooded raider. Rest of the game doesnt really interest me, except maybe fractals once in a while. Ive spend > 3k Euros on the game according to my paypal records.
    How much did you spend? How much do those farming silverwastes, mussels, wood, metas or istan spend?

    I didnt count how much i spent. I spent a bit before but we are spending significantly less now or none basically. If i need something now i convert gold to gem. Raids and fractal is consistent in game income if clearing at each reset. We have whole family playing the game, everyone gets gem cards on bdays xmas and etc including each tp updates. But not anymore from how this game is heading. I feel it happen to not just us but many others. Many has quit

    Death is Energy [DIE] & Bongbong [BB] in FoW server
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  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2019

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    I don't know where you get the statistic again. I do however is referring to the one posted previously on this thread which wrote W4: 14% then W5:7% then W6:5%.
    I do refer to 14% to 7% as 50% drop.
    I do refer to 7% to 5% as 33% drop, though more accurately 30%.

    You have been bringing out statistic that favor your argument while me on the other hand, use a statistic that is posted here by other users. Would you not say that you are using bias correlation?

    Read the data where you got them. They are for the final boss of a wing, not the first one, unless you mean those that are killing the Soulless Horror aren't raiding. Because they ARE raiding. I posted the correct data for you to use but you didn't use the correct ones for your own reasons. Would you not say you are biased here? Using the data you want to and not the correct ones? Also, those that are playing raids, fighting bosses but fail to kill them are ALSO RAIDING, meaning the actual raiding population is even higher.

    The part which you failed to respond to is that Raid activity dropped 15% (using the correct data not the biased ones) while open world activity dropped 50%, yet you are still talking about the drop in raid activity as if it's a big one. Btw, even using the final boss data, they show a 33% drop, while open world data suggest a 50% drop, still MUCH higher than the Raid drop.

    You failed to answer why the open world activity dropped by a whooping 50% (80% to 40%) if as you said players don't stop playing out of boredom and only stop due to difficulty. Try to answer the actual questions, try not to use biased data but proper ones and try not to talk about bias when you have no clue what bias is.
    Spoilers: did you know that you need a Jackal to finish the W6 Raid? 62% have the Jackal unlocked. Food for thought.

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    As far as i know, there's no source whatsoever about any raids past wing 7, or any expac past PoF. So, at best we can only guess about those - and while some guesses (like the possibility they aren't working an any expac right now) seem highly reasonable based on what we know, others (about any future raids) are far less solid.

    Do you recall when was Wing 7 first announced?