"We are planning to release raids with more regularity this season." - ANet Jason - Page 2 — Guild Wars 2 Forums

"We are planning to release raids with more regularity this season." - ANet Jason

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Comments

  • @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    I don't know where you get the statistic again. I do however is referring to the one posted previously on this thread which wrote W4: 14% then W5:7% then W6:5%.
    I do refer to 14% to 7% as 50% drop.
    I do refer to 7% to 5% as 33% drop, though more accurately 30%.

    You have been bringing out statistic that favor your argument while me on the other hand, use a statistic that is posted here by other users. Would you not say that you are using bias correlation?

    You're comparing two different moments in time, because participation for the most recent raid is always going to be lower: the older raids have more time for people to attempt/succeed.

    That's why it's critical to compare them to something else to benchmark overall participation. For example, by comparing raid participation to the LS episode that released at the same time. When you do so, you'll see that relative participation is largely unchanged, whenever we look.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    I don't know where you get the statistic again. I do however is referring to the one posted previously on this thread which wrote W4: 14% then W5:7% then W6:5%.
    I do refer to 14% to 7% as 50% drop.
    I do refer to 7% to 5% as 33% drop, though more accurately 30%.

    You have been bringing out statistic that favor your argument while me on the other hand, use a statistic that is posted here by other users. Would you not say that you are using bias correlation?

    Read the data where you got them. They are for the final boss of a wing, not the first one, unless you mean those that are killing the Soulless Horror aren't raiding. Because they ARE raiding. I posted the correct data for you to use but you didn't use the correct ones for your own reasons. Would you not say you are biased here? Using the data you want to and not the correct ones? Also, those that are playing raids, fighting bosses but fail to kill them are ALSO RAIDING, meaning the actual raiding population is even higher.

    The part which you failed to respond to is that Raid activity dropped 15% (using the correct data not the biased ones) while open world activity dropped 50%, yet you are still talking about the drop in raid activity as if it's a big one. Btw, even using the final boss data, they show a 33% drop, while open world data suggest a 50% drop, still MUCH higher than the Raid drop.

    You failed to answer why the open world activity dropped by a whooping 50% (80% to 40%) if as you said players don't stop playing out of boredom and only stop due to difficulty. Try to answer the actual questions, try not to use biased data but proper ones and try not to talk about bias when you have no clue what bias is.
    Spoilers: did you know that you need a Jackal to finish the W6 Raid? 62% have the Jackal unlocked. Food for thought.

    Then the consistency of the argument need a correction then, since you want to use the first boss as deciding factor.
    W4:23.704%
    W5:9.728%
    W6:8.533%

    Would W4 to W5 not shown a 50% drop?

    On topic of the small drop between W5 and W6, wouldn't that support the argument of the decline of open world has little impact towards raid itself since yourself already stated the open world declined in a huge way yet on earlier argument, you correlate the decline with raid decline.

    On topic of difficulty
    W5 river has slightly higher % than W5 first boss as shown here
    W6 you mentioned require jackal but it isn't completely necessary since it isn't a boss fight. This is the same reason why W5 river has more completion than W5 first boss.
    On further analyse on how much difficulty impact the amount of people doing raid. Take a look at w4 statistic. The first three bosses have tiny decrement while on the last boss, the decrement is a whole 33%.
    On further evidence on how difficulty deter people away on doing raid. We all know W3 escort is dirt easy but if you look at statistic. W3 2nd boss too experience a dip of 30ish % when the difficulty ramp up as shown here. Isn't that awfully similar to W4?

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    As far as i know, there's no source whatsoever about any raids past wing 7, or any expac past PoF. So, at best we can only guess about those - and while some guesses (like the possibility they aren't working an any expac right now) seem highly reasonable based on what we know, others (about any future raids) are far less solid.

    Do you recall when was Wing 7 first announced?

    I don't remember when wing 7 was specifically announced (it was mentioned by name only a week before release), but we knew the raid team was working on the next wing even before wing 6 got released. I can't find the specific mention now, but it was shortly before wing 6 release, when they said they already have it done (and just wait for the next LS chapter to release it), and have already started working on next one.

    Same with PoF - we knew they were working on expac long before any official announcement - for example MO mentioned expac team when he took over after Colin.

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    I don't know where you get the statistic again. I do however is referring to the one posted previously on this thread which wrote W4: 14% then W5:7% then W6:5%.
    I do refer to 14% to 7% as 50% drop.
    I do refer to 7% to 5% as 33% drop, though more accurately 30%.

    You have been bringing out statistic that favor your argument while me on the other hand, use a statistic that is posted here by other users. Would you not say that you are using bias correlation?

    You're comparing two different moments in time, because participation for the most recent raid is always going to be lower: the older raids have more time for people to attempt/succeed.

    That's why it's critical to compare them to something else to benchmark overall participation. For example, by comparing raid participation to the LS episode that released at the same time. When you do so, you'll see that relative participation is largely unchanged, whenever we look.

    On your argument that these raid exist longer therefore allow more people to do them.
    W2 statistic show lesser people completing than W4 as shown here and here. Would you still say that argument is sound?

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2019

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Then the consistency of the argument need a correction then, since you want to use the first boss as deciding factor.

    Your mistake is that you use completion data for Raids, but call the total as everyone that bought POF. This is were your entire argument becomes biased and completely off rails. What happened earlier in the thread was a comparison between completions, completion of Raid wings with completion of Episodes. Yet you failed to comprehend that. If you don't like to use completion rates for episodes, which you continue to ignore in your latest post, then why use completion rates for Raids?

    A team that forms as I type this and enters Hall of Chains to fight the Soulless Horror is actively participating in the activity called Raids. Success in the activity is not a requirement to be counted as participating. Since you want to compare Raids with everyone that bought POF, as seen here:

    Finish and unable to access the contents are different things. Do you need to finish it to do raid? Nope.

    Everyone is able to access and play Raids. Success isn't a requirement to Raid, therefore with this logic everyone is a raider unless you have some clear proof data proving otherwise. Every single person that bought POF is a raider, since they have access to Raids.

    As for the difficulty, you failed to address the actual question, the 50% drop in Jahai Bluffs. Was it so much more difficult than core POF?

  • @SkyShroud.2865 said:

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    I don't know where you get the statistic again. I do however is referring to the one posted previously on this thread which wrote W4: 14% then W5:7% then W6:5%.
    I do refer to 14% to 7% as 50% drop.
    I do refer to 7% to 5% as 33% drop, though more accurately 30%.

    You have been bringing out statistic that favor your argument while me on the other hand, use a statistic that is posted here by other users. Would you not say that you are using bias correlation?

    You're comparing two different moments in time, because participation for the most recent raid is always going to be lower: the older raids have more time for people to attempt/succeed.

    That's why it's critical to compare them to something else to benchmark overall participation. For example, by comparing raid participation to the LS episode that released at the same time. When you do so, you'll see that relative participation is largely unchanged, whenever we look.

    On your argument that these raid exist longer therefore allow more people to do them.
    W2 statistic show lesser people completing than W4 as shown here and here. Would you still say that argument is sound?

    I'd say you're grasping at straws, again. To show whether time makes a difference, we'd look at participation levels for the same wing one month, 7 months, and 13 months after launch. All you've shown is that Wing 2 is less popular than Wing 4.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Then the consistency of the argument need a correction then, since you want to use the first boss as deciding factor.

    Your mistake is that you use completion data for Raids, but call the total as everyone that bought POF. This is were your entire argument becomes biased and completely off rails. What happened earlier in the thread was a comparison between completions, completion of Raid wings with completion of Episodes. Yet you failed to comprehend that. If you don't like to use completion rates for episodes, which you continue to ignore in your latest post, then why use completion rates for Raids?

    A team that forms as I type this and enters Hall of Chains to fight the Soulless Horror is actively participating in the activity called Raids. Success in the activity is not a requirement to be counted as participating. Since you want to compare Raids with everyone that bought POF, as seen here:

    Finish and unable to access the contents are different things. Do you need to finish it to do raid? Nope.

    Everyone is able to access and play Raids. Success isn't a requirement to Raid, therefore with this logic everyone is a raider unless you have some clear proof data proving otherwise. Every single person that bought POF is a raider, since they have access to Raids.

    As for the difficulty, you failed to address the actual question, the 50% drop in Jahai Bluffs. Was it so much more difficult than core POF?

    Nope, that comparison of comparing LS is started by you and I am telling such comparison is bias and with recent post, even cite why it is bias.
    You yet to make any argument to what I have cited and only asking for more, I don't think this is a fair argument.

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • Talindra.4958Talindra.4958 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2019

    Excuse me and sorry, those data we are talking about only show achievement completion right not about % of players currently actively run raids clear weekly (?). Perhaps number of li is much better benchmark to see (?) but then many ppl with 1.5k li and above quit the game while there are also new raiders joining. I think, its really only anet that knows the statistic better and how many players are active etc bcos i cant see how a boss kill consider the player a raider. Portion of that % could be bought from raid sellers. You be surpriced to know how many ppl buy raids

    Edit to correct mobil phone typo and auto correct :p

    Death is Energy [DIE] in EU
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  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    I don't know where you get the statistic again. I do however is referring to the one posted previously on this thread which wrote W4: 14% then W5:7% then W6:5%.
    I do refer to 14% to 7% as 50% drop.
    I do refer to 7% to 5% as 33% drop, though more accurately 30%.

    You have been bringing out statistic that favor your argument while me on the other hand, use a statistic that is posted here by other users. Would you not say that you are using bias correlation?

    You're comparing two different moments in time, because participation for the most recent raid is always going to be lower: the older raids have more time for people to attempt/succeed.

    That's why it's critical to compare them to something else to benchmark overall participation. For example, by comparing raid participation to the LS episode that released at the same time. When you do so, you'll see that relative participation is largely unchanged, whenever we look.

    On your argument that these raid exist longer therefore allow more people to do them.
    W2 statistic show lesser people completing than W4 as shown here and here. Would you still say that argument is sound?

    I'd say you're grasping at straws, again. To show whether time makes a difference, we'd look at participation levels for the same wing one month, 7 months, and 13 months after launch. All you've shown is that Wing 2 is less popular than Wing 4.

    Or am I? I wasn't the one that said participation for the most recent raid is always going to be lower. You did.
    I already proved that logic is wrong and any logic that you build on top of that logic is gonna be wrong as well.
    Now, after getting refuted, you tried to argument it with time length, in that case, shouldn't all the statistic analysis in this thread should be invalided since none can be compared in that aspect?

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Nope, that comparison of comparing LS is started by you and I am telling such comparison is bias and with recent post, even cite why it is bias.
    You yet to make any argument to what I have cited and only asking for more, I don't think this is a fair argument.

    If it's biased to compare completions of raid wings with completions of episodes, then comparing EVERYONE (You said: "Finish and unable to access the contents are different things. ") with completion of Raids is also biased. And I'm telling you again, if you want to count everyone, then everyone is a raider as everyone can make a 10-man team (or even go solo) and bang their head against Soulless Horror or Conjured Amalgamate. They are still RAIDING at that point. Success is irrelevant, so 100% of those that bought POF is a raider, same way how you say they have access to it.

    It's funny how you continue to ignore the question about the insane difficulty of Jahai Bluffs which lead to such an insane drop there...

  • @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Or am I? I wasn't the one that said participation for the most recent raid is always going to be lower. You did.
    I already proved that logic is wrong and any logic that you build on top of that logic is gonna be wrong as well.
    Now, after getting refuted, you tried to argument it with time length, in that case, shouldn't all the statistic analysis in this thread should be invalided since none can be compared in that aspect?

    Participation for the most recent raid is always lower. Wing 2 and Wing 4 aren't anything close to "the most recent."

    I could have phrased it more accurately by saying that participation always increases over time, from whatever it was at the time of launch. Some participation rates will increase more quickly, due to popularity. To see whether raids are becoming more or less popular, it is essential to look at the context: what are other participation rates like, are they increasing by the same amounts or more slowly, are there other mitigating or exacerbating factors?

    Since the thread isn't about statistical analysis, I used "participation for the most recent is always lower," as a shorthand. If you want to keep hanging your argument on taking that statement out of context, suit yourself. It won't change ANet's opinion, since they can see the actual data (instead of relying on proxies for the data) and the trends.

    It also doesn't change the facts:

    • Raid participation relative to overall participation is largely the same since raids were released. It's not "dropping."
    • That relative number is also fairly healthy, at around 15% using stats on GW2/E (with all the accompanying caveats).

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2019

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Nope, that comparison of comparing LS is started by you and I am telling such comparison is bias and with recent post, even cite why it is bias.
    You yet to make any argument to what I have cited and only asking for more, I don't think this is a fair argument.

    If it's biased to compare completions of raid wings with completions of episodes, then comparing EVERYONE (You said: "Finish and unable to access the contents are different things. ") with completion of Raids is also biased. And I'm telling you again, if you want to count everyone, then everyone is a raider as everyone can make a 10-man team (or even go solo) and bang their head against Soulless Horror or Conjured Amalgamate. They are still RAIDING at that point. Success is irrelevant, so 100% of those that bought POF is a raider, same way how you say they have access to it.

    It's funny how you continue to ignore the question about the insane difficulty of Jahai Bluffs which lead to such an insane drop there...

    Oh well, I will play along with you, since you still can't accept it.
    LS4 - Ep1: 57.021%
    LS4 - Ep2: 47.769%
    LS4 - Ep3: 48.487%
    LS4 - Ep4: 40.247%
    LS4 - Ep5: 35.793%
    LS4 - Ep6: 31.435%

    Other than Ep2 and Ep3, which is interesting to analyse why there is such odd increment.
    The LS has shown steady decline. Are you suggesting LS is getting difficult every new ep?

    Also, if you want to use POF value as part of the data analyse, you should also sort them according to maps like how LS is divided to maps.

    Edit: In case you didn't notice which I think you wouldn't notice. W5 is launch alongside with Ep1. Now, the closest correlation you did with W6 is Ep5. However, between Ep 1 and Ep 5, it has been declining. Such disparity is not seen between W5 and W6 as your earlier mentioned statistic, so how can you say LS can be used as accurate correlation with raid?

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    Or am I? I wasn't the one that said participation for the most recent raid is always going to be lower. You did.
    I already proved that logic is wrong and any logic that you build on top of that logic is gonna be wrong as well.
    Now, after getting refuted, you tried to argument it with time length, in that case, shouldn't all the statistic analysis in this thread should be invalided since none can be compared in that aspect?

    Participation for the most recent raid is always lower. Wing 2 and Wing 4 aren't anything close to "the most recent."

    I could have phrased it more accurately by saying that participation always increases over time, from whatever it was at the time of launch. Some participation rates will increase more quickly, due to popularity. To see whether raids are becoming more or less popular, it is essential to look at the context: what are other participation rates like, are they increasing by the same amounts or more slowly, are there other mitigating or exacerbating factors?

    Since the thread isn't about statistical analysis, I used "participation for the most recent is always lower," as a shorthand. If you want to keep hanging your argument on taking that statement out of context, suit yourself. It won't change ANet's opinion, since they can see the actual data (instead of relying on proxies for the data) and the trends.

    It also doesn't change the facts:

    • Raid participation relative to overall participation is largely the same since raids were released. It's not "dropping."
    • That relative number is also fairly healthy, at around 15% using stats on GW2/E (with all the accompanying caveats).

    As you said there are magnitude of factors but if one try to make a correlation, that correlation need to have relative drop in activity. However, do you see such relative drop for W5 and W6 that validate that the LS decline can indeed be correlated to raid decline?

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    The LS has shown steady decline.

    Yes, of course, because the most recent LS will always have a lower participation rate.
    So why does it surprise you that the most recent raid also has a lower participation rate?

    Are you suggesting LS is getting difficult every new ep?

    People are likely to complete the LS episode at least once for continuity. There's no such need to complete each raid, as they stand alone.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    As you said there are magnitude of factors but if one try to make a correlation, that correlation need to have relative drop in activity. However, do you see such relative drop for W5 and W6 that validate that the LS decline can indeed be correlated to raid decline?

    I think you've lost the point of why it's important to compare raid participation rates to something else. We're not looking for correlation; we're benchmarking.

    We know that participation rates go up over time: all the late adopters get added to the early adopters, pushing up the total count.

    So the question isn't: are participation rates for the most recent raid lower? The question is: are they lower by the same amount as other content that was released around the same time?

    The answer is: yes, raid participation rates are down, by about the same amounts as LS episode participation.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2019

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    As you said there are magnitude of factors but if one try to make a correlation, that correlation need to have relative drop in activity. However, do you see such relative drop for W5 and W6 that validate that the LS decline can indeed be correlated to raid decline?

    I think you've lost the point of why it's important to compare raid participation rates to something else. We're not looking for correlation; we're benchmarking.

    We know that participation rates go up over time: all the late adopters get added to the early adopters, pushing up the total count.

    So the question isn't: are participation rates for the most recent raid lower? The question is: are they lower by the same amount as other content that was released around the same time?

    The answer is: yes, raid participation rates are down, by about the same amounts as LS episode participation.

    That don't make sense either. Between W5 and W6, the first boss only has 1% or so disparity completion.
    Elsewhere, Ep1 and Ep5 has big disparity, even if you convert it to proportion, even if you use the full story completion as value of comparison.
    You simply can't have any logical link with participation rate.

    Also, I also compare on the context of difficulty such that higher difficulty lead to lesser participation rate. This much is shown on W2 and W4 and likewise, within the wing itself on different bosses. Therefore, using the drop between W4 and W5 as example that difficulty deter players, has little impact from the open world. Sure, open world does has impact since it attract people to the game but not on the level that is described towards raid.

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    The LS has shown steady decline. Are you suggesting LS is getting difficult every new ep?

    What? Of course not, that's what YOU said:

    I would say it has little to do with people stop buying POF or stop playing but rather the increasing difficulty of raid and frequent balance change which make people relearn rotation so often are pushing people away.

    You were saying that the drop in Raid numbers is not because people stop playing but because of the difficulty (which is a joke since W6 is easier than W5)
    And I said that if people don't stop Raids because they stopped playing the game completely, the same is true for the Episodes. Why wouldn't it be the same?
    Which led to my very simple question of how to explain the drop in LS numbers if it's not because players stop playing... is it because they are difficult?

    You understand, hopefully, that difficulty isn't why episode numbers are getting lower. But lower episode numbers mean lower raider numbers too. Someone that stopped playing the game (as shown by their participation in the episode) also stopped raiding.

  • SkyShroud.2865SkyShroud.2865 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2019

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    The LS has shown steady decline. Are you suggesting LS is getting difficult every new ep?

    What? Of course not, that's what YOU said:

    I would say it has little to do with people stop buying POF or stop playing but rather the increasing difficulty of raid and frequent balance change which make people relearn rotation so often are pushing people away.

    You were saying that the drop in Raid numbers is not because people stop playing but because of the difficulty (which is a joke since W6 is easier than W5)
    And I said that if people don't stop Raids because they stopped playing the game completely, the same is true for the Episodes. Why wouldn't it be the same?
    Which led to my very simple question of how to explain the drop in LS numbers if it's not because players stop playing... is it because they are difficult?

    You understand, hopefully, that difficulty isn't why episode numbers are getting lower. But lower episode numbers mean lower raider numbers too. Someone that stopped playing the game (as shown by their participation in the episode) also stopped raiding.

    But I didn't say that for LS though? LS isn't raid though? All I am saying there is a steady decline, however, that isn't shown on raid.

    It is true overall lesser people led to lesser players in other mode. However, not to the extend you are describing and trying to reference with.
    When i say higher raid difficulty led to lesser raiders, that itself isn't without statistic to back it up since such statistic can be witnessed within first 4 wings.

    On topic on why W6 not having more people playing despite sightly easier. It actually has more people playing. When I said you trying to correlate raid participation against openworld is flawed is not without reason. I already mentioned earlier that difficulty deter players. If the difficulty for raids are consistent throughout, then maybe you can see a correlation with open world but the truth is, it isn't consistent throughout. More difficult raid deter players while less difficult raid attract players. W5 and W6 when compared to LS decline, it is shockingly low. What suggest is that there are actually more people (in proportion to overall pop) doing W6 than W5 despite the decline in population. However, the population did decline so the gain isn't much, just enough to not cause a big dip. Such statistic can be seen between W2 and W4 as well.

    Founder & Retired Leader of Equinox Solstice [TIME], a Singapore-Based International PvX Guild
    Henge of Denravi
    https://discord.gg/P5dj7fd

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 14, 2019

    Just look at the LI<->LD shenanigans from last patch, and how they try to keep them going, instead of just reverting the decision, even after people called them on it.

    To me, it seems that the participation rates do indeed differ significantly between HoT and PoF wings, and that the difference is so big they want to push players from old wings to the new ones. Even if it's going to cost them some unreparable damage on the PR side.

    I see no other explanation for that move. If they felt the participation rates for PoF wings were good enough, they wouldn't have felt the need to use a hammer.

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • Ayrilana.1396Ayrilana.1396 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    Seeing the LI<->LD shenanigans from last patch, and how they try to keep them going, instead of just reverting the decision, seems that the participation rates do indeed differ significantly between HoT and PoF wings, and that the difference is so big they want to push players from old wings to the new even if it's going to cost them some PR loss.
    I see no other explanation for that move.

    My assumption too. I’m thinking the ring isn’t having enough of an impact in getting players to do those wings as legendary armor does for the first five.

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 14, 2019

    @Ayrilana.1396 said:

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    Seeing the LI<->LD shenanigans from last patch, and how they try to keep them going, instead of just reverting the decision, seems that the participation rates do indeed differ significantly between HoT and PoF wings, and that the difference is so big they want to push players from old wings to the new even if it's going to cost them some PR loss.
    I see no other explanation for that move.

    My assumption too. I’m thinking the ring isn’t having enough of an impact in getting players to do those wings as legendary armor does for the first five.

    Probably, but i'm pretty sure the difficulty has done a lot to decrease interest in PoF wings as well. Especially for wing 5, which also has the additional problem of being the first of PoF wings (even though there's no raid tier progression, and no logical reason to do wings in order, many players wil still do them that way, and once they hit something that blocks them, won't follow to next wings), and the one that starts the Coalescence collection.

    Though ring being one time purchase, and LD not being useful for anything else certainly doesn't help.

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • Starshine.8739Starshine.8739 Member ✭✭
    edited June 14, 2019

    @Astralporing.1957 said:

    @Ayrilana.1396 said:

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    Seeing the LI<->LD shenanigans from last patch, and how they try to keep them going, instead of just reverting the decision, seems that the participation rates do indeed differ significantly between HoT and PoF wings, and that the difference is so big they want to push players from old wings to the new even if it's going to cost them some PR loss.
    I see no other explanation for that move.

    My assumption too. I’m thinking the ring isn’t having enough of an impact in getting players to do those wings as legendary armor does for the first five.

    Probably, but i'm pretty sure the difficulty has done a lot to decrease interest in PoF wings as well. Especially for wing 5, which also has the additional problem of being the first of PoF wings (even though there's no raid tier progression, and no logical reason to do wings in order, many players wil still do them that way, and once they hit something that blocks them, won't follow to next wings), and the one that starts the Coalescence collection.

    Though ring being one time purchase, and LD not being useful for anything else certainly doesn't help.

    In my opinion it doesn't have as much to do with lesser interest in PoF wings but in the fact that if you want to do W1-4 you are fine with like 50-100LI and so, which you are still able to get even by doing escort and gorse pre for a year. PoF wings however, if you missed going there and clearing them for first few weeks after release - good luck, people will be asking for 50-60KP which you cannot get because they are asking for 50-60KP ¯_(ツ)_/¯.

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    What suggest is that there are actually more people (in proportion to overall pop) doing W6 than W5 despite the decline in population.

    Daybreak: 47%
    W5: First boss: 10%, last boss: 7%
    21% of those that completed the story killed the first boss, 15% killed the last boss.

    A Star to Guide Us: 35%
    W6: First boss: 8.5%, last boss: 5%
    24% of those that completed the story killed the first boss, 14% killed the last boss.

    Relative speaking, W5 and W6 have the same amount of players that completed them. Of course, overall there are more W5 completions than W6 completions, but the one point I was trying to make absolutely clear is that the overall population of the game doesn't really matter in these types of calculations. The episode completion rate was used to compare Raids with -something- because we were getting comments about Raids being dead, declining in population and Arenanet shifting their focus away of Raids due to that.

    Conclusion is very similar, it took us a bit long to reach it lol. Peace out

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    To me, it seems that the participation rates do indeed differ significantly between HoT and PoF wings, and that the difference is so big they want to push players from old wings to the new ones. Even if it's going to cost them some unreparable damage on the PR side.

    Yes that's true. But it also means that those raiding bought both POF and HOT to cause such a reaction, which is an interesting bit in and on itself.

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    To me, it seems that the participation rates do indeed differ significantly between HoT and PoF wings, and that the difference is so big they want to push players from old wings to the new ones. Even if it's going to cost them some unreparable damage on the PR side.

    Yes that's true. But it also means that those raiding bought both POF and HOT to cause such a reaction, which is an interesting bit in and on itself.

    Those that hadn't bought PoF are not an issue here, because they never had the exchange option in the first place. Only people that did at least one w5 kill before w6 was made qualified for it (and you needed PoF or that). Those that never bought HoT were never an issue either, because they couldn't be doing old wings in preference to new ones anyway (not that there's a lot of active people with Pof but without HoT in raiding, especially considering the meta class/espec requirements).
    Besides, i'm pretty sure that most of the still active players, regardless of the mode and preferred content, have all expacs.

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    That don't make sense either. Between W5 and W6, the first boss only has 1% or so disparity completion.
    Elsewhere, Ep1 and Ep5 has big disparity, even if you convert it to proportion, even if you use the full story completion as value of comparison.
    You simply can't have any logical link with participation rate.

    Also, I also compare on the context of difficulty such that higher difficulty lead to lesser participation rate. This much is shown on W2 and W4 and likewise, within the wing itself on different bosses. Therefore, using the drop between W4 and W5 as example that difficulty deter players, has little impact from the open world. Sure, open world does has impact since it attract people to the game but not on the level that is described towards raid.

    You're still missing the point. The correlation isn't between people playing raids and people playing LS; it's the length of time those players have had to complete them.

    Participation goes up over time, as show in various posts (including one above). Whatever the participation is for Wing X or LS#y.z today, it's going to be greater (on GW2/E) in 3 months.
    So it's not an apples:apples comparison to look today at Wing 4 vs 5 or to look at LS4.2 vs 4.3, because the earliest to launch have had more time in game.
    In short: GW2/Efficiency has no way of answering the question: is raid participation declining?

    Instead, we look at comparables to answer a different question: is raid participation declining relative to participation in PvE?
    And the answer is: no, it's not. The ratio of participation in raids, despite the varying difficulty, is roughly the same when compared to the LS episode that launched at the same time.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • Linken.6345Linken.6345 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 14, 2019

    @Astralporing.1957 said:

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    To me, it seems that the participation rates do indeed differ significantly between HoT and PoF wings, and that the difference is so big they want to push players from old wings to the new ones. Even if it's going to cost them some unreparable damage on the PR side.

    Yes that's true. But it also means that those raiding bought both POF and HOT to cause such a reaction, which is an interesting bit in and on itself.

    Those that hadn't bought PoF are not an issue here, because they never had the exchange option in the first place. Only people that did at least one w5 kill before w6 was made qualified for it (and you needed PoF or that). Those that never bought HoT were never an issue either, because they couldn't be doing old wings in preference to new ones anyway (not that there's a lot of active people with Pof but without HoT in raiding, especially considering the meta class/espec requirements).
    Besides, i'm pretty sure that most of the still active players, regardless of the mode and preferred content, have all expacs.

    No the offer was not ended after wing 6 shipped if you read further in the thread it would grant it when you made your first w5 kill even after w6 arrived
    Edit
    https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/54756/a-note-about-future-raid-rewards/p1

    Byron Miller.4629Byron Miller.4629 ArenaNet › September 12, 2018
    @Mireles Lore.5942 said:
    Is the participation requirement needed before the patch drops or is that unlimited time frame as well?

    Participation is not limited. You can earn access to the exchange after the patch as well.

  • Yasi.9065Yasi.9065 Member ✭✭✭
    edited June 14, 2019

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @SkyShroud.2865 said:
    What suggest is that there are actually more people (in proportion to overall pop) doing W6 than W5 despite the decline in population.

    Daybreak: 47%
    W5: First boss: 10%, last boss: 7%
    21% of those that completed the story killed the first boss, 15% killed the last boss.

    A Star to Guide Us: 35%
    W6: First boss: 8.5%, last boss: 5%
    24% of those that completed the story killed the first boss, 14% killed the last boss.

    Relative speaking, W5 and W6 have the same amount of players that completed them. Of course, overall there are more W5 completions than W6 completions, but the one point I was trying to make absolutely clear is that the overall population of the game doesn't really matter in these types of calculations. The episode completion rate was used to compare Raids with -something- because we were getting comments about Raids being dead, declining in population and Arenanet shifting their focus away of Raids due to that.

    Conclusion is very similar, it took us a bit long to reach it lol. Peace out

    Your whole discussion is pointless, you know that, right?

    I finished all living stories, once, for unlocking everything. Did I enjoy it? kitten no. I hate it. Every living story update makes me want to shoot myself because Im more or less forced into content I detest to unlock things.
    So saying "living story is well received/populated/liked" just due to how many finished an achievement on it... ridiculous, sorry.
    You cant compare participation in mandatory content with voluntary content.

    And the drop in raid participation btw, was due to legendary armor getting released. It was promised from the start, took 2 years to develope, and has failed dye channels. Guess what, that kinda killed the semi-mandatory part of raids. Either players were done already and stopped. Or they saw the armor and lost interest.
    Legendary ring was supposed to be something similar, and I mean... develop time was long enough for it. But w5 is a horrible wing for "bad" players, since it has RNG queen desmina and RNG king orb mechanic.
    When w6 released, most not-so-interested players already had given up.

    My data? Training guilds, several statics and twitch chitchat.

    If you want "real data" btw, then you will have to make a questionnaire, asking for percentage time spend on content, liking of said content, etc. And then get as much gw2 players as possible to answer it. Not just forum and reddit heroes, but also people ingame.

    But guess why anet doesnt do that. Because they like what their skewed statistics show them. Hence why gw2 is dieing a slow and painful-to-watch death.

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 14, 2019

    @Linken.6345 said:

    @Astralporing.1957 said:

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    To me, it seems that the participation rates do indeed differ significantly between HoT and PoF wings, and that the difference is so big they want to push players from old wings to the new ones. Even if it's going to cost them some unreparable damage on the PR side.

    Yes that's true. But it also means that those raiding bought both POF and HOT to cause such a reaction, which is an interesting bit in and on itself.

    Those that hadn't bought PoF are not an issue here, because they never had the exchange option in the first place. Only people that did at least one w5 kill before w6 was made qualified for it (and you needed PoF or that). Those that never bought HoT were never an issue either, because they couldn't be doing old wings in preference to new ones anyway (not that there's a lot of active people with Pof but without HoT in raiding, especially considering the meta class/espec requirements).
    Besides, i'm pretty sure that most of the still active players, regardless of the mode and preferred content, have all expacs.

    No the offer was not ended after wing 6 shipped if you read further in the thread it would grant it when you made your first w5 kill even after w6 arrived
    Edit
    https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/54756/a-note-about-future-raid-rewards/p1

    Byron Miller.4629Byron Miller.4629 ArenaNet › September 12, 2018
    @Mireles Lore.5942 said:
    Is the participation requirement needed before the patch drops or is that unlimited time frame as well?

    Participation is not limited. You can earn access to the exchange after the patch as well.

    That part got corrected right after w6 went in and the exchange actually appeared, from what i remember. I am pretty sure that people that killed their first w5 boss right after the patch didn't get the exchange option.

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 14, 2019

    @Yasi.9065 said:
    So saying "living story is well received/populated/liked" just due to how many finished an achievement on it... ridiculous, sorry.

    I never said that living story is well received or anything like that (that's personal opinion). I was comparing the reduction in living story content completion with the reduction of raid content completion. If you didn't get that by that post you quoted, the living world completion did drop way more than Raid completion. That was the reason I was presenting the data to begin with, show those that say Raids are dying and nobody plays them is a silly argument, because compared to other content, Raids aren't dying. They are mostly stable.

    Of course that doesn't tell us anything about actual participation. We don't have any data to support that, we use the data we can to get -at least- some kind of results (obviously biased) but it's better than nothing, and over the months/years it does show some very interesting trends.

  • @Yasi.9065 said:
    So saying "living story is well received/populated/liked" just due to how many finished an achievement on it... ridiculous, sorry.

    No one is saying it was "well received" or "liked." And yes, we can absolutely state it was "populated," because we're not concerned with measuring enjoyment; we're looking at how many people completed it. The reasons for completion are irrelevant to the discussion.

    You cant compare participation in mandatory content with voluntary content.

    First, LS isn't mandatory. More importantly, all gameplay unlocks (maps and other content) are made available before completing the story. Some notable exceptions are wardrobe unlocks, AP, and the Skyscale (the Rollerbeetle unlocks before the end of the relevant LS episode).

    Second, the number of people playing any game drops over time; the only question is: how quickly. Games age, fans get older, RL interfere, and shinier new games appear. The relevant question isn't whether there are dropping numbers. The question is whether this game mode or that game mode is sinking more quickly.

    And the drop in raid participation btw, was due to legendary armor getting released. It was promised from the start, took 2 years to develope, and has failed dye channels. Guess what, that kinda killed the semi-mandatory part of raids. Either players were done already and stopped. Or they saw the armor and lost interest.

    It's a mistake to assume that everyone has the same motivations. Some play for the challenge, some for the group aspects, and many for the shinies.

    My data? Training guilds, several statics and twitch chitchat.

    That's not "data;" that's anecdote. Anecdotes are extremely useful in helping to understand data; they are illustrative, though, not conclusive.

    If you want "real data" btw, then you will have to make a questionnaire, asking for percentage time spend on content, liking of said content, etc. And then get as much gw2 players as possible to answer it. Not just forum and reddit heroes, but also people ingame.

    If you want to know why people do what they do, then sure, a questionnaire is a useful tool.

    This conversation hasn't been about why; it's been about how many, which doesn't require a survey. We have a considerable body of data, even though it covers only a non-random sample. That should put us in the right ballpark.

    But guess why anet doesnt do that. Because they like what their skewed statistics show them.

    They have the raw data on how many people raid, how often, and which bosses/wings. They have comparable data for LS, open world, and WvW. How is that skewed?

    Hence why gw2 is dieing a slow and painful-to-watch death.

    All the evidence we have is that GW2 is thriving, not dying. Like any game that is 7 years old, there are fewer active players. And yet ANet's making enough money that they can plan for storylines 2+ years away. There are tons of people at events, enough people are coming back to the game to have backlogged the Support team.

    Hype is the path to the dark side. Hype leads to unfulfilled expectations. Disappointment leads to anger. Anger leads to disgust. Disgust leads to "oh, new shinies! I'm back!"

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:
    All the evidence we have is that GW2 is thriving, not dying. Like any game that is 7 years old, there are fewer active players.

    Actually, FF XIV just announced that their subscription levels now are the highest ever, so no, it's not like any game.

    And yet ANet's making enough money that they can plan for storylines 2+ years away.

    Can they? They could 2 years ago, but is it still the same now?

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2019

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    Actually, FF XIV just announced that their subscription levels now are the highest ever, so no, it's not like any game.

    ESO is also going up according to steam charts. Interestingly enough, ESO is doing much better than FF XIV on Steam (Steam counts concurrent players btw, it's different than actual accounts).

    Maybe the reason those other mmorpgs are having increasing numbers is because they released expansions recently? GW2 numbers also went up (as seen by their revenue results) when an expansion was released.

  • Astralporing.1957Astralporing.1957 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2019

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    Actually, FF XIV just announced that their subscription levels now are the highest ever, so no, it's not like any game.

    ESO is also going up according to steam charts. Interestingly enough, ESO is doing much better than FF XIV on Steam (Steam counts concurrent players btw, it's different than actual accounts).

    Maybe the reason those other mmorpgs are having increasing numbers is because they released expansions recently? GW2 numbers also went up (as seen by their revenue results) when an expansion was released.

    I don't know about ESO, but in FFXIV it is of course tied to the expansion that will launch in 2 weeks, but at the same it isn't - because the numbers are higher than with the previous two expansion launches. It's not that they are going up right now. It's that their subscription levels are the highest since the game launched.
    Althoug it's probably partially thanks to WoW and its BfA expansion...

    The whole point of a social game is to play with the people you want to play with, not be forced to play with the people you don't.

  • zealex.9410zealex.9410 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:
    It's funny how you continue to ignore the question about the insane difficulty of Jahai Bluffs which lead to such an insane drop there...

    w8 what?

  • zealex.9410zealex.9410 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2019

    @Astralporing.1957 said:

    @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:
    All the evidence we have is that GW2 is thriving, not dying. Like any game that is 7 years old, there are fewer active players.

    Actually, FF XIV just announced that their subscription levels now are the highest ever, so no, it's not like any game.

    And yet ANet's making enough money that they can plan for storylines 2+ years away.

    Can they? They could 2 years ago, but is it still the same now?

    Also Eso announced recently increased number of players. Yes eso is newer but ESo was infamous for its bad launch. For the last 2 or so years Gw2 is the only big mmo that hasnt shown any sign of growth.

    Aside from expansions both these games had an overall positive last year or 2 with lots of content updates and consistency.

    The later i feel like gw2 hasnt really managed at all last year and a half.

  • zealex.9410zealex.9410 Member ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2019

    @Astralporing.1957 said:
    Althoug it's probably partially thanks to WoW and its BfA expansion...

    Tbh every mmo benefited from that, to what extend it depends to the reputation each game has.

  • maddoctor.2738maddoctor.2738 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @zealex.9410 said:
    w8 what?

    Check the rest of the discussion, that line alone won't make any sense

  • zealex.9410zealex.9410 Member ✭✭✭✭

    @maddoctor.2738 said:

    @zealex.9410 said:
    w8 what?

    Check the rest of the discussion, that line alone won't make any sense

    Yeah went afterwards and read the back and forth.