New charr helms exclusive to RNG

[sokeenoppa.5384]

You can buy those from tp. https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Visage_of_the_Khan-Ur dont call it rng If its not rng only.

[Linken.6345]

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Bear.9568 said:RNG is heavily related to "probability", no need to discuss statistics. In short, save all loot boxes and open them in large stacks 100+. Your % chance of obtaining the item does not increase, however the probability does.

I am a bit confused here. Are you trying to say that with more attempts you are more likely to get an item?I am not sure probability works like that.

Read my op% chance of obtaining said item stays the same, however probability of obtaining said item increases.I recommend you do some research :)

I think the source of Ol Nik's confusion (certainly of mine) is that percent chance is a way of measuring probability - so it's not possible for the probability of something to go up if the percent chance remains the same. Thus for your statement to make sense you must be talking about two different probabilities, one that you're calling "% chance" and one that you're calling "probability". What do you mean by those terms?

Also, what evidence do you have that opening 100 boxes at once gives a better chance of getting this item than opening 100 boxes over a longer period of time? I'm genuinely curious.

Simple answer: The likelihood obtaining said item has a greater probability of showing up with more rolls "loot boxes". The % chance at which you can obtain the item never changes.

But in that case why is it better to save up boxes and open them all at once, rather than just opening them as you obtain them? That's what you were claiming, but if the probability of getting the item from an individual box never changes, there's no reason to save up the boxes.

Its just the feeling that its better.If you get it from chest 67 of 100 with saved up you would have got it with chest 67 when opening them 1 by 1.

[Ol Nik.2518]

@"sokeenoppa.5384" said:You can buy those from tp. https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Visage_of_the_Khan-Ur dont call it rng If its not rng only.

It is still an RNG drop even if it is tradeable. If you can buy it from TP it does not mean that there is a guaranteed way of obtaining an item (it is not intuitive, I imagine).

[Ol Nik.2518]

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Bear.9568 said:RNG is heavily related to "probability", no need to discuss statistics. In short, save all loot boxes and open them in large stacks 100+. Your % chance of obtaining the item does not increase, however the probability does.

I am a bit confused here. Are you trying to say that with more attempts you are more likely to get an item?I am not sure probability works like that.

Read my op% chance of obtaining said item stays the same, however probability of obtaining said item increases.I recommend you do some research :)

I think the source of Ol Nik's confusion (certainly of mine) is that percent chance is a way of measuring probability - so it's not possible for the probability of something to go up if the percent chance remains the same. Thus for your statement to make sense you must be talking about two different probabilities, one that you're calling "% chance" and one that you're calling "probability". What do you mean by those terms?

Also, what evidence do you have that opening 100 boxes at once gives a better chance of getting this item than opening 100 boxes over a longer period of time? I'm genuinely curious.

Simple answer: The likelihood obtaining said item has a greater probability of showing up with more rolls "loot boxes". The % chance at which you can obtain the item never changes.

But in that case why is it better to save up boxes and open them all at once, rather than just opening them as you obtain them? That's what you were claiming, but if the probability of getting the item from an individual box never changes, there's no reason to save up the boxes.

This is exactly what I meant. The probability does not change, but with a greater number of rolls, you are getting closer to the mathematical expectation values. However:

1. it does not matter whether you open all boxes at the same time or not, so it makes no sense to hoard the boxes (from the probability point of view);
2. if the drop rate is very low (say, 1%) a single individual might not be able to collect enough boxes for the law of big numbers to become applicable.

A much better strategy might be selling the keys, hoarding gold, and buying those skins from TP, since they are tradeable.

[sokeenoppa.5384]

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@"sokeenoppa.5384" said:You can buy those from tp.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Visage_of_the_Khan-Ur

dont call it rng If its not rng only.

It is still an RNG drop even if it is tradeable. If you can buy it from TP it does not mean that there is a guaranteed way of obtaining an item (it is not intuitive, I imagine).

There is a guaranteed way to get this item, either with gold or irl money (bad idea.)

[SidewayS.3789]

I think someone (a dev) put some zeroes before the "," number chance of dropping.

[Ol Nik.2518]

@sokeenoppa.5384 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@sokeenoppa.5384 said:You can buy those from tp.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Visage_of_the_Khan-Ur

dont call it rng If its not rng only.

It is still an RNG drop even if it is tradeable. If you can buy it from TP it does not mean that there is a guaranteed way of obtaining an item (it is not intuitive, I imagine).

There is a guaranteed way to get this item, either with gold or irl money (bad idea.)

'Guaranteed' means 100% probability. If it were the case you would be able to buy a said item the very moment new episode is released. However, this is not what happens. You can buy something from TP only if all three conditions are met: 1) the item has been dropped by someone; 2) this someone is willing to sell the item; 3) you have enough money to buy the item when it is posted on TP. Your probability of buying helmets in question is most likely high. However, it is not 100%.

Infusions serve as a much more intuitive example. Rare infusions, like chak infusion and some variants of confetti infusion, are tradeable. However, your probability of buying one on TP even if you have enough money is rather low. You will have a higher chance of buying one outside of TP (and it will cost you more than max 10 000 gold allowed on TP), still, it is not guaranteed as you need to find willing sellers.

[miraude.2107]

I'm curious, is there a system in place that guarantees a drop eventually much like the Mistborn coffers? Like after a 1000 chests you got the gift automatically if it hadn't dropped already.Because this content is a week old, I'm more seeing people putting them up with prices like that on the TP for the impatient people that are more willing to foolishly part with gold instead of waiting it out and watching the price drop to something more reasonable. I mean I did the same thing with the Light of Deldrimor Plate. Said pfaw at the price and waited because I knew the price would crash. I can definitely see the price crashing on the helmet as some will unlock it for the wardrobe and then sell whatever ones they get next. So I'd just be patient and give it more time, hell you'll probably get the drop itself in the meantime instead of wasting gold buying the new shiny. It's not an infusion with a crappy drop rate.

[Bear.9568]

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Bear.9568 said:RNG is heavily related to "probability", no need to discuss statistics. In short, save all loot boxes and open them in large stacks 100+. Your % chance of obtaining the item does not increase, however the probability does.

I am a bit confused here. Are you trying to say that with more attempts you are more likely to get an item?I am not sure probability works like that.

Read my op% chance of obtaining said item stays the same, however probability of obtaining said item increases.I recommend you do some research :)

I think the source of Ol Nik's confusion (certainly of mine) is that percent chance is a way of measuring probability - so it's not possible for the probability of something to go up if the percent chance remains the same. Thus for your statement to make sense you must be talking about two different probabilities, one that you're calling "% chance" and one that you're calling "probability". What do you mean by those terms?

Also, what evidence do you have that opening 100 boxes at once gives a better chance of getting this item than opening 100 boxes over a longer period of time? I'm genuinely curious.

Simple answer: The likelihood obtaining said item has a greater probability of showing up with more rolls "loot boxes". The % chance at which you can obtain the item never changes.

But in that case why is it better to save up boxes and open them all at once, rather than just opening them as you obtain them? That's what you were claiming, but if the probability of getting the item from an individual box never changes, there's no reason to save up the boxes.

This is exactly what I meant. The probability does not change, but with a greater number of rolls, you are getting closer to the mathematical expectation values. However:

1. it does not matter whether you open all boxes at the same time or not, so it makes no sense to hoard the boxes (from the probability point of view);
2. if the drop rate is very low (say, 1%) a single individual might not be able to collect enough boxes for the law of big numbers to become applicable.

A much better strategy might be selling the keys, hoarding gold, and buying those skins from TP, since they are tradeable.

Flip a coin 1 time, 50/50 chance that it will be heads/tails and it lands on heads. BUT lets say you want tails.....The more coin flips (rolls/loot boxes/w/e) the "HIGHER PROBABILITY" that the coin will land on tails.

To reiterate, the % or drop rate chance of obtaining said item never changes, only the probability increases with more rolls/flips/loot boxes/etc.

:)

[Tanner Blackfeather.6509]

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Bear.9568 said:RNG is heavily related to "probability", no need to discuss statistics. In short, save all loot boxes and open them in large stacks 100+. Your % chance of obtaining the item does not increase, however the probability does.

I am a bit confused here. Are you trying to say that with more attempts you are more likely to get an item?I am not sure probability works like that.

Read my op% chance of obtaining said item stays the same, however probability of obtaining said item increases.I recommend you do some research :)

I think the source of Ol Nik's confusion (certainly of mine) is that percent chance is a way of measuring probability - so it's not possible for the probability of something to go up if the percent chance remains the same. Thus for your statement to make sense you must be talking about two different probabilities, one that you're calling "% chance" and one that you're calling "probability". What do you mean by those terms?

Also, what evidence do you have that opening 100 boxes at once gives a better chance of getting this item than opening 100 boxes over a longer period of time? I'm genuinely curious.

Simple answer: The likelihood obtaining said item has a greater probability of showing up with more rolls "loot boxes". The % chance at which you can obtain the item never changes.

But in that case why is it better to save up boxes and open them all at once, rather than just opening them as you obtain them? That's what you were claiming, but if the probability of getting the item from an individual box never changes, there's no reason to save up the boxes.

This is exactly what I meant. The probability does not change, but with a greater number of rolls, you are getting closer to the mathematical expectation values. However:

1. it does not matter whether you open all boxes at the same time or not, so it makes no sense to hoard the boxes (from the probability point of view);
2. if the drop rate is very low (say, 1%) a single individual might not be able to collect enough boxes for the law of big numbers to become applicable.

A much better strategy might be selling the keys, hoarding gold, and buying those skins from TP, since they are tradeable.

Flip a coin 1 time, 50/50 chance that it will be heads/tails and it lands on heads. BUT lets say you want tails.....The more coin flips (rolls/loot boxes/w/e) the "HIGHER PROBABILITY" that the coin will land on tails.

To reiterate, the % or drop rate chance of obtaining said item never changes, only the probability increases with more rolls/flips/loot boxes/etc.

:)

You're leaving out an important qualifier.The probability or getting at least one result of Tails increases. For each coin flip the probability is the same.There is also no difference in number of Tails results between flipping the coin 100 times in succession (saving the chests) or flipping it once per day for 100 days (opening them as you get them).

[Bear.9568]

@Tanner Blackfeather.6509 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Bear.9568 said:RNG is heavily related to "probability", no need to discuss statistics. In short, save all loot boxes and open them in large stacks 100+. Your % chance of obtaining the item does not increase, however the probability does.

I am a bit confused here. Are you trying to say that with more attempts you are more likely to get an item?I am not sure probability works like that.

Read my op% chance of obtaining said item stays the same, however probability of obtaining said item increases.I recommend you do some research :)

I think the source of Ol Nik's confusion (certainly of mine) is that percent chance is a way of measuring probability - so it's not possible for the probability of something to go up if the percent chance remains the same. Thus for your statement to make sense you must be talking about two different probabilities, one that you're calling "% chance" and one that you're calling "probability". What do you mean by those terms?

Also, what evidence do you have that opening 100 boxes at once gives a better chance of getting this item than opening 100 boxes over a longer period of time? I'm genuinely curious.

Simple answer: The likelihood obtaining said item has a greater probability of showing up with more rolls "loot boxes". The % chance at which you can obtain the item never changes.

But in that case why is it better to save up boxes and open them all at once, rather than just opening them as you obtain them? That's what you were claiming, but if the probability of getting the item from an individual box never changes, there's no reason to save up the boxes.

This is exactly what I meant. The probability does not change, but with a greater number of rolls, you are getting closer to the mathematical expectation values. However:

1. it does not matter whether you open all boxes at the same time or not, so it makes no sense to hoard the boxes (from the probability point of view);
2. if the drop rate is very low (say, 1%) a single individual might not be able to collect enough boxes for the law of big numbers to become applicable.

A much better strategy might be selling the keys, hoarding gold, and buying those skins from TP, since they are tradeable.

Flip a coin 1 time, 50/50 chance that it will be heads/tails and it lands on heads. BUT lets say you want tails.....The more coin flips (rolls/loot boxes/w/e) the "HIGHER PROBABILITY" that the coin will land on tails.

To reiterate, the % or drop rate chance of obtaining said item never changes, only the probability increases with more rolls/flips/loot boxes/etc.

:)

You're leaving out an important qualifier.The probability or getting

at least one

result of Tails increases. For each coin flip the probability is the same.There is also no difference in number of Tails results between flipping the coin 100 times in succession (saving the chests) or flipping it once per day for 100 days (opening them as you get them).

Agreed, as does the results of getting heads. However, the more rolls in succession the higher probability of acquiring said item.

[Ol Nik.2518]

@Bear.9568 said:

@Tanner Blackfeather.6509 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Tommo Chocolate.5870 said:

@Bear.9568 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:

@Bear.9568 said:RNG is heavily related to "probability", no need to discuss statistics. In short, save all loot boxes and open them in large stacks 100+. Your % chance of obtaining the item does not increase, however the probability does.

I am a bit confused here. Are you trying to say that with more attempts you are more likely to get an item?I am not sure probability works like that.

Read my op% chance of obtaining said item stays the same, however probability of obtaining said item increases.I recommend you do some research :)

I think the source of Ol Nik's confusion (certainly of mine) is that percent chance is a way of measuring probability - so it's not possible for the probability of something to go up if the percent chance remains the same. Thus for your statement to make sense you must be talking about two different probabilities, one that you're calling "% chance" and one that you're calling "probability". What do you mean by those terms?

Also, what evidence do you have that opening 100 boxes at once gives a better chance of getting this item than opening 100 boxes over a longer period of time? I'm genuinely curious.

Simple answer: The likelihood obtaining said item has a greater probability of showing up with more rolls "loot boxes". The % chance at which you can obtain the item never changes.

But in that case why is it better to save up boxes and open them all at once, rather than just opening them as you obtain them? That's what you were claiming, but if the probability of getting the item from an individual box never changes, there's no reason to save up the boxes.

This is exactly what I meant. The probability does not change, but with a greater number of rolls, you are getting closer to the mathematical expectation values. However:

1. it does not matter whether you open all boxes at the same time or not, so it makes no sense to hoard the boxes (from the probability point of view);
2. if the drop rate is very low (say, 1%) a single individual might not be able to collect enough boxes for the law of big numbers to become applicable.

A much better strategy might be selling the keys, hoarding gold, and buying those skins from TP, since they are tradeable.

Flip a coin 1 time, 50/50 chance that it will be heads/tails and it lands on heads. BUT lets say you want tails.....The more coin flips (rolls/loot boxes/w/e) the "HIGHER PROBABILITY" that the coin will land on tails.

To reiterate, the % or drop rate chance of obtaining said item never changes, only the probability increases with more rolls/flips/loot boxes/etc.

:)

You're leaving out an important qualifier.The probability or getting

at least one

result of Tails increases. For each coin flip the probability is the same.There is also no difference in number of Tails results between flipping the coin 100 times in succession (saving the chests) or flipping it once per day for 100 days (opening them as you get them).

Agreed, as does the results of getting heads. However, the more rolls in succession the higher probability of acquiring said item.

I am still confused. I cannot decide whether you do not know how probabilities work or how to use terminology...

More rolls, indeed, increase your overall probability of getting a specific item (but do not guarantee it, there is always a possibility that no matter how many rolls you do you won't get your desired item). However, it absolutely does not matter how you do the rolling: Each roll is completely independent of all others.

Basically, from the theory of probability point of view if you open 50 boxes and do not get a helmet there is absolutely no reason to assume that the 51st box will have it. You can expect (in the mathematical sense of the word; in this case, the expected value is the arithmetic mean) to get 1 helmet out of 100 boxes if the drop rate is 1%, but you are not guaranteed to get the helmet. Moreover, since each box opening event is independent of other box opening events: 1) there is no way to predict which specific box will give you the helmet and 2) there is absolutely no reason to open all boxes at once. You can open 1 box per century and you will get exactly the same result as opening them simultaneously provided that there are no other differences between the boxes and opening mechanics.

[Kahrgan.7401]

@"sokeenoppa.5384" said:You can buy those from tp. https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Visage_of_the_Khan-Ur dont call it rng If its not rng only.

You get the box via RNG... You can buy it from the TP, but they got the box via RNG. Meaning you cant work towards it via map currencies, which is actually playing the game and not the TP, or buying gems.

[Ayrilana.1396]

@Kahrgan.7401 said:

@"sokeenoppa.5384" said:You can buy those from tp.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Visage_of_the_Khan-Ur

dont call it rng If its not rng only.

You get the box via RNG... You can buy it from the TP, but they got the box via RNG. Meaning you cant work towards it via map currencies, which is actually playing the game and not the TP, or buying gems.

The TP is part of the game.

[Kahrgan.7401]

@Ayrilana.1396 said:

@Kahrgan.7401 said:

@"sokeenoppa.5384" said:You can buy those from tp.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Visage_of_the_Khan-Ur

dont call it rng If its not rng only.

You get the box via RNG... You can buy it from the TP, but they got the box via RNG. Meaning you cant work towards it via map currencies, which is actually playing the game and not the TP, or buying gems.

The TP is part of the game.

I fail to see who you're even arguing for?

Make this guy's favorite skin cost 3600g or more, and see if he changes his mind.

[Clyan.1593]

I try not to complain too much, but this particular thing gets me.That skin is also part of an achievement. It last sold for 2000 g on the TP.

I understand ANet somehow has to create artificial goldsinks, but this combination of skins / achievement / super rare RNG is just bad.Yes, I want that skin, and either I'll get it through luck or by spending as much gold as a legendary weapon can cost. Kinda absurd.

[Yamazuki.6073]

I wonder how you "just buy it" when there's zero of them to buy?Reminds me of NVidia with the "It just works".

[Regh.8649]

It's been years since my Charr used a helm that actually fits him, other than the cultural ones, almost every helm is a lazy adaptation of human armor design.

I'm ok with super rare skins, but c'mon, a race specific piece? as time passes only charr players will be trying to do the metas, and we know how that will work out for us as one of least played races. It could have been the ebon shoulders, they look great in every race.

[Jimbru.6014]

@mindcircus.1506 said:

@"Kahrgan.7401" said:The new charr helms are amazing, however, they can only be obtained through RNG. Can you please put them on the map vendor for hatch chili + volatile? I would love to not feel screwed over by the game due to random numbers and luck.

This sentiment that says "If I can't have it now I am screwed over" is the real problem here.

No, the REAL problem is that some of us have been playing this game for seven years and have received exactly ONE ascended drop from a world boss in that time. Oh, and I'm still waiting on Rhendak's ring and the trinket from the Eye of Zhaitan too. There is way too much stuff required for achieves locked behind RNG repetition. Players should not have to use up their game time having to repeat things over and over, sometimes for years, hoping against poorly designed abysmal drop rates just to get lucky. If there is any obsolete concept that needs banished from MMO gaming, it's RNG loot.

[Ayrilana.1396]

@Jimbru.6014 said:

@mindcircus.1506 said:

@"Kahrgan.7401" said:The new charr helms are amazing, however, they can only be obtained through RNG. Can you please put them on the map vendor for hatch chili + volatile? I would love to not feel screwed over by the game due to random numbers and luck.

This sentiment that says "If I can't have it now I am screwed over" is the real problem here.

No, the REAL problem is that some of us have been playing this game for seven years and have received exactly ONE ascended drop from a world boss in that time. Oh, and I'm still waiting on Rhendak's ring and the trinket from the Eye of Zhaitan too. There is way too much stuff required for achieves locked behind RNG repetition. Players should not have to use up their game time having to repeat things over and over, sometimes for years, hoping against poorly designed abysmal drop rates just to get lucky. If there is any obsolete concept that needs banished from MMO gaming, it's RNG loot.

If you dislike RNG loot, perhaps MMOs are not your kind of genre. RNG loot is critical for MMOs.

[Ben K.6238]

It's not really; you can have a MMO without any loot at all (e.g. Planetside). Generally RPGs use random loot for character progression though, and some focus on that mechanic more heavily than others. GW2 puts a very low emphasis on it compared to the older MMORPGs and ARPGs.

[Rukia.4802]

@"Mushuchalaka.9437" said:This may be unpopular opinion but I think some RNG is fine. Gives the item some value/prestige. I was drooling over the Berserker's Lightward's Battlestaff when it came out and still don' t have it nor have I paid for it, even though I can afford it. Little bit overpriced on the TP, but I have no problem how it is. I do get impressed when someone has it, because it's uncommon. Although it's rare to see someone have/use the skin.

"some value" have you seen the price on tp? lul lowest seller is 7k highest buyer is 4850 for these helm.

That's more than legendaries lol..

Too late to change it now but pretty stupid, the staff you mention is hardly worth 200g.