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Drop of Visage of the Khan-Ur was doubled ¿Is that a joke?


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@mortrialus.3062 said:

Do you really need everything to enjoy the game?

Do you enjoy with impossible achievements?

It's not impossible. It's just put of most people's reach. Which is what most achievements SHOULD be.

This misses the point. The achievement is part of the story meta, which has a large buffer and can be easily completed without this achievement. Not every story achievement is a part of the story meta. This achievement cannot be completed atm as there are not three copies of the required item on the tp rn. It is theoretically possible to complete the achievement bc it's rng, but not yet. Now given all that, what you think SHOULD be, doesn't matter. Consider what is. How does it make sense to include that achievement in the story meta under the existing conditions . . ?

@"Charrbeque.8729" said:It's deceptive. You've all been fooled into thinking they made it easier to get the helmet. They made you think they listened to feedback, but screwed us over at the same time.

Before the update: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:K6Bsvh05TeAJ:https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/%2522Recovered%2522_Charr_Artifact+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-b-1-d (cached version of the wiki page for the "Recovered" Charr Artifact)

Before the update the only items in the box were:Uncommon: piece of rare unidentified gearRare: a few named weapons and the Visage of the Khan-UrUltra rare: the infusion

After the update: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/%22Recovered%22_Charr_ArtifactCommon: piece of rare unidentified gear, the 4 legion keys for opening the vault of Khan-Ur, and a whole bunch of carrion flame weaponsUncommon (new category): a whole bunch of carrion and legionnaire weaponsRare: still the same with the named weapons and the helmetUltra rare: same with just the infusion

Before the update there was a total of 7 items in the "Recovered" Charr Artifact loot table. Now there's a total of 48 items! They kept it simple with it only containing new unique items (and a piece of rare unidentified gear) that players would actually want. Now it has a whole bunch of trash weapons you can buy for practically nothing on the trading post. And there was no need to add the legion keys to it because they are tradeable and are pretty cheap in the trading post.

It doesn't matter if they increased the drop rate of the helmet. They made sure to add in a ton of garbage to make sure the drop rate stays relatively the same. More items means the chance to get the helmet go down because the game has to roll for everything when you open the box.

First off I'm not sure it works this way. If they say they doubled the odds of the box dropping I'm sure that's what they mean. I'm sure they've got someone there somewhere who can math . . .

Second, the reason they added all those additional 'junk' items to the box is ppl complained about how unsatisfying it was to only get a single unid rare when opening the box and not hitting the jackpot. It's there to make the 'failed' rolls more rewarding . . .

The inclusion of the keys is a little puzzling, but I'm guessing it's a response to players who felt the two-hour time commitment was too great for the reward. Putting the keys in the boxes drives prices down for ppl who want to purchase them, or lets ppl skip one of the metas the next day if they'd rather farm the keys themselves . . .

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@"Charrbeque.8729" said:It's deceptive. You've all been fooled into thinking they made it easier to get the helmet. They made you think they listened to feedback, but screwed us over at the same time.

Before the update: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:K6Bsvh05TeAJ:https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/%2522Recovered%2522_Charr_Artifact+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-b-1-d (cached version of the wiki page for the "Recovered" Charr Artifact)

Before the update the only items in the box were:Uncommon: piece of rare unidentified gearRare: a few named weapons and the Visage of the Khan-UrUltra rare: the infusion

After the update: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/%22Recovered%22_Charr_ArtifactCommon: piece of rare unidentified gear, the 4 legion keys for opening the vault of Khan-Ur, and a whole bunch of carrion flame weaponsUncommon (new category): a whole bunch of carrion and legionnaire weaponsRare: still the same with the named weapons and the helmetUltra rare: same with just the infusion

Before the update there was a total of 7 items in the "Recovered" Charr Artifact loot table. Now there's a total of 48 items! They kept it simple with it only containing new unique items (and a piece of rare unidentified gear) that players would actually want. Now it has a whole bunch of trash weapons you can buy for practically nothing on the trading post. And there was no need to add the legion keys to it because they are tradeable and are pretty cheap in the trading post.

It doesn't matter if they increased the drop rate of the helmet. They made sure to add in a ton of garbage to make sure the drop rate stays relatively the same. More items means the chance to get the helmet go down because the game has to roll for everything when you open the box.

You can use the history tab on the wiki, you don't need to use google caches.

Anyway your idea of drop rate is incorrect, as unless the rares share the same overall drop table percentage then it doesn't affect the drop rate of the Visage.

For example if I put 10 nickels in a bag and 70 dimes I have 1/8 chance of a nickel. If I add 5 quarters in and remove 5 dimes , the rate of nickels is the same.

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@Gop.8713 said:

Do you really need everything to enjoy the game?

Do you enjoy with impossible achievements?

It's not impossible. It's just put of most people's reach. Which is what most achievements SHOULD be.

This misses the point. The achievement is part of the story meta, which has a large buffer and can be easily completed without this achievement. Not every story achievement is a part of the story meta. This achievement cannot be completed atm as there are not three copies of the required item on the tp rn. It is theoretically possible to complete the achievement bc it's rng, but not yet. Now given all that, what you think SHOULD be, doesn't matter. Consider what is. How does it make sense to include that achievement in the story meta under the existing conditions . . ?

@"Charrbeque.8729" said:It's deceptive. You've all been fooled into thinking they made it easier to get the helmet. They made you think they listened to feedback, but screwed us over at the same time.

Before the update:
(cached version of the wiki page for the "Recovered" Charr Artifact)

Before the update the only items in the box were:Uncommon: piece of rare unidentified gearRare: a few named weapons and the Visage of the Khan-UrUltra rare: the infusion

After the update:
Common: piece of rare unidentified gear, the 4 legion keys for opening the vault of Khan-Ur, and a whole bunch of carrion flame weaponsUncommon (new category): a whole bunch of carrion and legionnaire weaponsRare: still the same with the named weapons and the helmetUltra rare: same with just the infusion

Before the update there was a total of 7 items in the "Recovered" Charr Artifact loot table. Now there's a total of 48 items! They kept it simple with it only containing new unique items (and a piece of rare unidentified gear) that players would actually want. Now it has a whole bunch of trash weapons you can buy for practically nothing on the trading post. And there was no need to add the legion keys to it because they are tradeable and are pretty cheap in the trading post.

It doesn't matter if they increased the drop rate of the helmet. They made sure to add in a ton of garbage to make sure the drop rate stays relatively the same. More items means the chance to get the helmet go down because the game has to roll for everything when you open the box.

First off I'm not sure it works this way. If they say they doubled the odds of the box dropping I'm sure that's what they mean. I'm sure they've got someone there somewhere who can math . . .

Second, the reason they added all those additional 'junk' items to the box is ppl complained about how unsatisfying it was to only get a single unid rare when opening the box and not hitting the jackpot. It's there to make the 'failed' rolls more rewarding . . .

The inclusion of the keys is a little puzzling, but I'm guessing it's a response to players who felt the two-hour time commitment was too great for the reward. Putting the keys in the boxes drives prices down for ppl who want to purchase them, or lets ppl skip one of the metas the next day if they'd rather farm the keys themselves . . .

I guess my brain went to mars on that one.

I'll try to clarify so it kinda sorta makes some kinda sense.

Before, if you rolled anything higher than common you'd get a rare or ultra rare item. But with the inclusion of the uncommon category - and it having a higher chance to drop than a rare - your chances to get an item from the rare category are decreased. If you do get an item from the rare category, your chances at the helmet are better. But overall, it's not much better than before. You'll most likely get an uncommon item than a rare if you get anything better than a common.

1 solution would be to give 1 recovered charr artifact from each meta event per day (per account if needed). The means to get them are very very small - 1 per day from the chest in the vault you open using the legion keys and you can only use the keys to open the vault once per day (not sure if it's per character or account daily for opening the vault with the keys), and from map complete. But for map complete you can't just create/delete new characters to farm them, unless you have a teleport to friend item (which requires you to be level 10 and has a 1 hour cooldown, and a friend to hang in the map or park an alt account). Aside from that the only other way is getting a few artifacts from a wvw/pvp reward track, but that reward track can only be completed once, and the track that replaces it after you complete it doesn't give any artifacts at all. So they could also add at least 1 recovered charr artifact to the Icebrood Saga Reward Track so that wvw/pvp players who don't PvE with us noobs have a better chance at the helmet.

TL;DR The numbers are nowhere near an educated guess. I'm just trying to make a point.

Before update: common 80%>rare 15%>ultra rare 5%

After update: common 80%>uncommon 10%>rare 5%>ultra rare 5%

The chances to get the helmet are increased if you get something from the rare category. But with the uncommon category being added, your chances to get anything from the rare category decreases, thus making the helmet still really hard to get. (And most of the items they added are just trash loot you can get dropped from monsters in the open world, or buy from karma vendors)

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You don't need to use teleport to friend , once you unlock grothmar valley you can use the teleport scroll. Map complete takes less than 40 minutes, I'm sure of it.

Also once again if the uncommon category replaces commons in the drop table, it doesn't affect the rare drop rate. See my above example.

Let's say you have 50 pennies "common" , 10 nickels "uncommon" , 5 quarters "rare", 1 half-dollar "super rare". The odds are the same as if you have 60 pennies with 5 quarters and one half-dollar.

I can guarantee you super rare is not 5%.

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@Charrbeque.8729 said:

@Gop.8713 said:

Do you really need everything to enjoy the game?

Do you enjoy with impossible achievements?

It's not impossible. It's just put of most people's reach. Which is what most achievements SHOULD be.

This misses the point. The achievement is part of the story meta, which has a large buffer and can be easily completed without this achievement. Not every story achievement is a part of the story meta. This achievement cannot be completed atm as there are not three copies of the required item on the tp rn. It is theoretically possible to complete the achievement bc it's rng, but not yet. Now given all that, what you think SHOULD be, doesn't matter. Consider what is. How does it make sense to include that achievement in the story meta under the existing conditions . . ?

@Charrbeque.8729 said:It's deceptive. You've all been fooled into thinking they made it easier to get the helmet. They made you think they listened to feedback, but screwed us over at the same time.

Before the update:
(cached version of the wiki page for the "Recovered" Charr Artifact)

Before the update the only items in the box were:Uncommon: piece of rare unidentified gearRare: a few named weapons and the Visage of the Khan-UrUltra rare: the infusion

After the update:
Common: piece of rare unidentified gear, the 4 legion keys for opening the vault of Khan-Ur, and a whole bunch of carrion flame weaponsUncommon (new category): a whole bunch of carrion and legionnaire weaponsRare: still the same with the named weapons and the helmetUltra rare: same with just the infusion

Before the update there was a total of 7 items in the "Recovered" Charr Artifact loot table. Now there's a total of 48 items! They kept it simple with it only containing new unique items (and a piece of rare unidentified gear) that players would actually want. Now it has a whole bunch of trash weapons you can buy for practically nothing on the trading post. And there was no need to add the legion keys to it because they are tradeable and are pretty cheap in the trading post.

It doesn't matter if they increased the drop rate of the helmet. They made sure to add in a ton of garbage to make sure the drop rate stays relatively the same. More items means the chance to get the helmet go down because the game has to roll for everything when you open the box.

First off I'm not sure it works this way. If they say they doubled the odds of the box dropping I'm sure that's what they mean. I'm sure they've got someone there somewhere who can math . . .

Second, the reason they added all those additional 'junk' items to the box is ppl complained about how unsatisfying it was to only get a single unid rare when opening the box and not hitting the jackpot. It's there to make the 'failed' rolls more rewarding . . .

The inclusion of the keys is a little puzzling, but I'm guessing it's a response to players who felt the two-hour time commitment was too great for the reward. Putting the keys in the boxes drives prices down for ppl who want to purchase them, or lets ppl skip one of the metas the next day if they'd rather farm the keys themselves . . .

I guess my brain went to mars on that one.

I'll try to clarify so it kinda sorta makes some kinda sense.

Before, if you rolled anything higher than common you'd get a rare or ultra rare item. But with the inclusion of the uncommon category - and it having a higher chance to drop than a rare - your chances to get an item from the rare category are decreased. If you do get an item from the rare category, your chances at the helmet are better. But overall, it's not much better than before. You'll most likely get an uncommon item than a rare if you get anything better than a common.

1 solution would be to give 1 recovered charr artifact from each meta event per day (per account if needed). The means to get them are very very small - 1 per day from the chest in the vault you open using the legion keys and you can only use the keys to open the vault once per day (not sure if it's per character or account daily for opening the vault with the keys), and from map complete. But for map complete you can't just create/delete new characters to farm them, unless you have a teleport to friend item (which requires you to be level 10 and has a 1 hour cooldown, and a friend to hang in the map or park an alt account). Aside from that the only other way is getting a few artifacts from a wvw/pvp reward track, but that reward track can only be completed once, and the track that replaces it after you complete it doesn't give any artifacts at all. So they could also add at least 1 recovered charr artifact to the Icebrood Saga Reward Track so that wvw/pvp players who don't PvE with us noobs have a better chance at the helmet.

TL;DR The numbers are nowhere near an educated guess. I'm just trying to make a point.

Before update: common 80%>rare 15%>ultra rare 5%

After update: common 80%>uncommon 10%>rare 5%>ultra rare 5%

The chances to get the helmet are increased if you get something from the rare category. But with the uncommon category being added, your chances to get anything from the rare category decreases, thus making the helmet still really hard to get. (And most of the items they added are just trash loot you can get dropped from monsters in the open world, or buy from karma vendors)

I understand what you are saying, but there is no reason to believe it works that way. They could have just as easily taken the 'extra' chance for the visage box from the common share as taken the uncommon share from the rare share. Assuming that the common share must remain constant is arbitrary. What is even more likely is that the common item is a guaranteed drop and higher tier items have some chance of dropping in addition to, rather than in place of, the common items as this is how most of anet's lootboxes have worked in the past. The way the text sounds to me is that we are now getting four things from the vault chest: 1) the unid yellow 2) the 'charr-themed gear', either uncommon or rare 3) one of the four meta keys and 4) rolls at the higher tier gear . . .

The bottom line is that we really have no idea of how it works, but anet does, and they stated that the chances of receiving the visage box have been doubled. That could mean they doubled the % chance of the box dropping, it could also mean that you now get two rolls at the box every time you open the vault, so you could theoretically get two boxes drop from a single chest. We just don't know . . .

EDIT: All that said I do agree that 'doubling' the drop rate for this item in these circumstances seems like a somewhat ridiculous response, but anet has access to more data than we do . . .

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@Gop.8713 said:

@Gop.8713 said:

Do you really need everything to enjoy the game?

Do you enjoy with impossible achievements?

It's not impossible. It's just put of most people's reach. Which is what most achievements SHOULD be.

This misses the point. The achievement is part of the story meta, which has a large buffer and can be easily completed without this achievement. Not every story achievement is a part of the story meta. This achievement cannot be completed atm as there are not three copies of the required item on the tp rn. It is theoretically possible to complete the achievement bc it's rng, but not yet. Now given all that, what you think SHOULD be, doesn't matter. Consider what is. How does it make sense to include that achievement in the story meta under the existing conditions . . ?

@Charrbeque.8729 said:It's deceptive. You've all been fooled into thinking they made it easier to get the helmet. They made you think they listened to feedback, but screwed us over at the same time.

Before the update:
(cached version of the wiki page for the "Recovered" Charr Artifact)

Before the update the only items in the box were:Uncommon: piece of rare unidentified gearRare: a few named weapons and the Visage of the Khan-UrUltra rare: the infusion

After the update:
Common: piece of rare unidentified gear, the 4 legion keys for opening the vault of Khan-Ur, and a whole bunch of carrion flame weaponsUncommon (new category): a whole bunch of carrion and legionnaire weaponsRare: still the same with the named weapons and the helmetUltra rare: same with just the infusion

Before the update there was a total of 7 items in the "Recovered" Charr Artifact loot table. Now there's a total of 48 items! They kept it simple with it only containing new unique items (and a piece of rare unidentified gear) that players would actually want. Now it has a whole bunch of trash weapons you can buy for practically nothing on the trading post. And there was no need to add the legion keys to it because they are tradeable and are pretty cheap in the trading post.

It doesn't matter if they increased the drop rate of the helmet. They made sure to add in a ton of garbage to make sure the drop rate stays relatively the same. More items means the chance to get the helmet go down because the game has to roll for everything when you open the box.

First off I'm not sure it works this way. If they say they doubled the odds of the box dropping I'm sure that's what they mean. I'm sure they've got someone there somewhere who can math . . .

Second, the reason they added all those additional 'junk' items to the box is ppl complained about how unsatisfying it was to only get a single unid rare when opening the box and not hitting the jackpot. It's there to make the 'failed' rolls more rewarding . . .

The inclusion of the keys is a little puzzling, but I'm guessing it's a response to players who felt the two-hour time commitment was too great for the reward. Putting the keys in the boxes drives prices down for ppl who want to purchase them, or lets ppl skip one of the metas the next day if they'd rather farm the keys themselves . . .

I guess my brain went to mars on that one.

I'll try to clarify so it kinda sorta makes some kinda sense.

Before, if you rolled anything higher than common you'd get a rare or ultra rare item. But with the inclusion of the uncommon category - and it having a higher chance to drop than a rare - your chances to get an item from the rare category are decreased. If you do get an item from the rare category, your chances at the helmet are better. But overall, it's not much better than before. You'll most likely get an uncommon item than a rare if you get anything better than a common.

1 solution would be to give 1 recovered charr artifact from each meta event per day (per account if needed). The means to get them are very very small - 1 per day from the chest in the vault you open using the legion keys and you can only use the keys to open the vault once per day (not sure if it's per character or account daily for opening the vault with the keys), and from map complete. But for map complete you can't just create/delete new characters to farm them, unless you have a teleport to friend item (which requires you to be level 10 and has a 1 hour cooldown, and a friend to hang in the map or park an alt account). Aside from that the only other way is getting a few artifacts from a wvw/pvp reward track, but that reward track can only be completed once, and the track that replaces it after you complete it doesn't give any artifacts at all. So they could also add at least 1 recovered charr artifact to the Icebrood Saga Reward Track so that wvw/pvp players who don't PvE with us noobs have a better chance at the helmet.

TL;DR The numbers are nowhere near an educated guess. I'm just trying to make a point.

Before update: common 80%>rare 15%>ultra rare 5%

After update: common 80%>uncommon 10%>rare 5%>ultra rare 5%

The chances to get the helmet are increased if you get something from the rare category. But with the uncommon category being added, your chances to get anything from the rare category decreases, thus making the helmet still really hard to get. (And most of the items they added are just trash loot you can get dropped from monsters in the open world, or buy from karma vendors)

I understand what you are saying, but there is no reason to believe it works that way. They could have just as easily taken the 'extra' chance for the visage box from the common share as taken the uncommon share from the rare share. Assuming that the common share must remain constant is arbitrary. What is even more likely is that the common item is a guaranteed drop and higher tier items have some chance of dropping in addition to, rather than in place of, the common items as this is how most of anet's lootboxes have worked in the past. The way the text sounds to me is that we are now getting four things from the vault chest: 1) the unid yellow 2) the 'charr-themed gear', either uncommon or rare 3) one of the four meta keys and 4) rolls at the higher tier gear . . .

The bottom line is that we really have no idea of how it works, but anet does, and they stated that the chances of receiving the visage box have been doubled. That could mean they doubled the % chance of the box dropping, it could also mean that you now get two rolls at the box every time you open the vault, so you could theoretically get two boxes drop from a single chest. We just don't know . . .

EDIT: All that said I do agree that 'doubling' the drop rate for this item in these circumstances seems like a somewhat ridiculous response, but anet has access to more data than we do . . .

I'm just gonna agree with you and call it quits for this topic. I'm so confused right now.

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@"Bandido.8719" said:

Items"Recovered" Charr Artifacts now have increased rewards: an additional piece of charr-themed gear, one of the four legion keys, and
double the chance of receiving a Visage of the Khan-Ur.

There is an achievement collection demanding 3 of these visages. Nowadays only one is listed on the TP at 10K... so, the drop of this object was absurdly low. Anet seems aware, so they decided to increase it, and decide to only increase it x2. Also, we have to consider the population decrease of the map... this just leaves this achievement as impossible.

You mean the population decrease of the map that hasn't happened yet...or the one you're expecting to happen anytime now?

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You mean the population decrease of the map that hasn't happened yet...or the one you're expecting to happen anytime now?

Hasn't happened? Of course the map still has a lot of people, but can't compare with the first days. If in the first 15 days with a lot of people doing the map metas so few of these has dropped, how many more drops can you expect to happen when the majority of people leaves the map?

24 hours later... still only one in TP at 10k, and the same buying order of 5.5k

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@Infusion.7149 said:

@"Charrbeque.8729" said:It's deceptive. You've all been fooled into thinking they made it easier to get the helmet. They made you think they listened to feedback, but screwed us over at the same time.

Before the update:
(cached version of the wiki page for the "Recovered" Charr Artifact)

Before the update the only items in the box were:Uncommon: piece of rare unidentified gearRare: a few named weapons and the Visage of the Khan-UrUltra rare: the infusion

After the update:
Common: piece of rare unidentified gear, the 4 legion keys for opening the vault of Khan-Ur, and a whole bunch of carrion flame weaponsUncommon (new category): a whole bunch of carrion and legionnaire weaponsRare: still the same with the named weapons and the helmetUltra rare: same with just the infusion

Before the update there was a total of 7 items in the "Recovered" Charr Artifact loot table. Now there's a total of 48 items! They kept it simple with it only containing new unique items (and a piece of rare unidentified gear) that players would actually want. Now it has a whole bunch of trash weapons you can buy for practically nothing on the trading post. And there was no need to add the legion keys to it because they are tradeable and are pretty cheap in the trading post.

It doesn't matter if they increased the drop rate of the helmet. They made sure to add in a ton of garbage to make sure the drop rate stays relatively the same. More items means the chance to get the helmet go down because the game has to roll for everything when you open the box.

You can use the history tab on the wiki, you don't need to use google caches.

Anyway your idea of drop rate is incorrect, as unless the rares share the same overall drop table percentage then it doesn't affect the drop rate of the Visage.

For example if I put 10 nickels in a bag and 70 dimes I have 1/8 chance of a nickel. If I add 5 quarters in and remove 5 dimes , the rate of nickels is the same.

So if youi had 7 items that could drop then added 41 others for a total of 48 you somehow can predict that 1 of the original 7 will drop twice as much?Its not following your analogy of the nickels at all they dident remove anything and made the pool almost 5 times bigger.

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Just opened 6 Charr Artifacts and got 6 rare unidentified items, 6 legion keys, and also 5 rare Flame weapons and 1 exotic Legionnaire weapon.

Previously, (and annoyingly) I'd opened a dozen or so Charr Artifacts and gotten only a single rare unidentified item from each so the drops are definitely better than they were however it's worth noting that doubling a ~0% drop chance results in a ~0% drop chance. As in the chances are so small doubling them means very little.

They probably shouldn't have created the collection as it just draws attention to the low drop rate.

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@Pifil.5193 said:Just opened 6 Charr Artifacts and got 6 rare unidentified items, 6 legion keys, and also 5 rare Flame weapons and 1 exotic Legionnaire weapon.

Previously, (and annoyingly) I'd opened a dozen or so Charr Artifacts and gotten only a single rare unidentified item from each so the drops are definitely better than they were however it's worth noting that doubling a ~0% drop chance results in a ~0% drop chance. As in the chances are so small doubling them means very little.

They probably shouldn't have created the collection as it just draws attention to the low drop rate.

Ah I thought you would still only get 1 of the choices. ( so still better but a token system or like dragonfall after 1k chests you get a autoamtic drop would be nice)

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@Ol Nik.2518 said:Gw2efficiency users are probably representative of the subset of the GW2 community that is dedicated to the game and pursues achievements.

Dedicated to the game? Probably. But pursuing achievements: not so much, the numbers aren't really impressive on gw2efficiency, other than those with 35k+ AP

Without knowing the achievements statistics for the entire player population we cannot say whether the numbers on gw2efficiency 'aren't really impressive'. It very much can be that those unimpressive numbers are on the higher end and GW2 players, in general, do not have much interest in achievements. We also need to consider that not all registered gw2efficiency users are active players and/or have access to all existing content.

It can also be that my assumption was wrong. But this is why I used 'probably' instead of 'definitely'.

One does not need to farm meta to drop the helmet. Farmers have higher chances of eventually getting one due to the increased number of boxes they open, but it does not mean that only farmers get helmets. Moreover, the lower the drop rate the less it matters whether you farm metas or not.

True, but 200 players farming the meta 1k times will have significantly higher chances of getting the drop as 10k players playing the meta once. Few players that over-farm will always get better results than loads of players that play once and then leave.

You are right. However, those 200 players will
collectively
have a higher chance of getting the drop, simply because they will have 200 000 attempts instead of 10 000.It does not mean that each of 200 farmers will get their desired drop if the drop rate is 1/1000 or lower (which seems to be the case with helmets). It is actually possible that not even one of them gets the helmet.

My point was that you most likely would do better making money and buying the helmet than farming it. Considering that the drop rate is low and the number of possible rolls per day is limited, it might be faster to make enough money and find a seller than drop the helmet on your own.

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@"Linken.6345" said:

So if you had 7 items that could drop then added 41 others for a total of 48 you somehow can predict that 1 of the original 7 will drop twice as much?Its not following your analogy of the nickels at all they didnt remove anything and made the pool almost 5 times bigger.

You're assuming that each rare drop had the same chance to drop. If true, it was probably ~1/100 drops rare (0.99%) with 1/10K super rare (0.01%). For a sample size of 10K you should get theoretically get 1 Khan-ur infusion , 20 x4 = 80 collection weapons, ~ 19 Visages , and 9.9K unids ("common").

The new drop rate (from above speculation) is probably 9% uncommon, ~0.99% rare, 0.01% super rare along with chance of key returns. There's 18 different "uncommon" (exotic) drops.You'd end up with something like 1 Khan-ur infusion, 15x4 = 60 collection weapons , ~ 39 visages , 900 "uncommon" exotics, and rest unid or "common" weapons .An alternative is the entire "rare" category has been doubled in drop rate and uncommon and above is a more generous 1 in 5 (20%), such that it results in :18% uncommon , 1.99% rare , 0.01% super rare.For sample size 10K : 1 Khan-ur infusion, 40x4 = 160 collection weapons, ~39 visages, 1800 "uncommon" exotics , rest unid or "common" weapons.

We've seen something similar with unid gear, where green unid gear had 2.5/40 rare (~6.25%) and 6/1000 exotic (~0.6%). Blue unid gear was 1.2/11 masterwork (~10%), 1/100 rare (1%), 1/1000 exotic (0.1%). ~0.2% drop rate is also seen in fractal encryptions, to date the record is 13 skins out of over 70K cracked fractal encryptions.

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@"Ol Nik.2518" said:Without knowing the achievements statistics for the entire player population we cannot say whether the numbers on gw2efficiency 'aren't really impressive'.

If you have a large enough friendlist/guild list you can see the achievement statistics of the entire player population using the leaderboards as they show the "break points" for each 10%. It works well at low numbers with enough variation, but the final 10% is bloated with the majority of points

You are right. However, those 200 players will collectively have a higher chance of getting the drop, simply because they will have 200 000 attempts instead of 10 000.It does not mean that each of 200 farmers will get their desired drop if the drop rate is 1/1000 or lower (which seems to be the case with helmets). It is actually possible that not even one of them gets the helmet.

True but it's a matter of statistics. The initial poster said there were 7 drops recorded on gw2efficiency and there was the question if that number is significant or not. If those 7 drops came from the players that overfarm the meta because they are achievement hunters, or farmers in general, then they are the 200 players in the example above. The 10k players won't increase the drops by much, because they will run it too few times. If we assume the percentages worked "fairly" the 200 players (with 200k attempts) should get way more drops than the 10k players, statistically speaking. Of course since it's pure chance we can never be sure but with such large sample, if chances work fairly, the 1-time runners shouldn't affect the drop rates as much as the big farmers, no matter how few farmers exist compared to the rest.

At least that's my understanding and why those gw2eff drops are likely to be significant.

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@Naxos.2503 said:As a rule of thumb, whenever Something is Added to the drop pool of a container, every other drop from said container will take a sharp nosedive in term of acquisition percent. Which is technically logical, as infuriating as it is. I quite dislike this.

But anet's lootboxes rarely work this way. Their 'jackpot' items are typically extra rolls, they don't replace another item that would have otherwise dropped. Again, the patch note was that they have double the chance of 'receiving' the visage box . . .

@banshee.9328 said:Just updating that till now (17th day after release of Prologue) nothing changed and there are still only 7 unlocked skins for sample of 200k registered accounts at gw2eff.

And still only one listed on tp for 10k. The high buy order is down to 2240g, though it is impossible to know whether the higher orders were filled or removed. And while I agree the current solution isn't likely to bring a dramatic improvement to the situation, if we're going to use efficiency numbers it's probably best to use the 55k accounts that have finished the first chapter of the prologue rather than the 200k accounts that have been registered, many of which are likely abandoned . . .

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@"Ol Nik.2518" said:Without knowing the achievements statistics for the entire player population we cannot say whether the numbers on gw2efficiency 'aren't really impressive'.

If you have a large enough friendlist/guild list you can see the achievement statistics of the entire player population using the leaderboards as they show the "break points" for each 10%. It works well at low numbers with enough variation, but the final 10% is bloated with the majority of points

I did not know that. How the leaderboards work, though? Do they show all 11 000 000 created accounts or only accounts active within a specific period of time?

You are right. However, those 200 players will collectively have a higher chance of getting the drop, simply because they will have 200 000 attempts instead of 10 000.It does not mean that each of 200 farmers will get their desired drop if the drop rate is 1/1000 or lower (which seems to be the case with helmets). It is actually possible that not even one of them gets the helmet.

True but it's a matter of statistics. The initial poster said there were 7 drops recorded on gw2efficiency and there was the question if that number is significant or not. If those 7 drops came from the players that overfarm the meta because they are achievement hunters, or farmers in general, then they are the 200 players in the example above. The 10k players won't increase the drops by much, because they will run it too few times. If we assume the percentages worked "fairly" the 200 players (with 200k attempts) should get way more drops than the 10k players, statistically speaking. Of course since it's pure chance we can never be sure but with such large sample, if chances work fairly, the 1-time runners shouldn't affect the drop rates as much as the big farmers, no matter how few farmers exist compared to the rest.

At least that's my understanding and why those gw2eff drops are likely to be significant.

Gw2efficiency data is significant, but it is not enough. There are more than 7 helmets in the game now. But we do not know how many more than 7.

Considering that one can obtain only a limited number of boxes per day and the helmet's drop rate is very low, it is much more probable that regular players got helmets, not the farmers. Because by now non-farmers had more rolls than farmers.

Please also consider that at the time of this comment 54 828 gw2efficiency users have unlocked 'Coming Home' achievement given for the completion of the first instance of the Prologue. 22 391 players completed 'Secrets of the Khan-Ur' achievement. This gives us grounds to assume that much more than 10 000 players obtained boxes in one way or another.

Please note that 200 000 attempts do not constitute a sufficiently big sample if we are talking about probabilities in the range of 0.001 (1/1000 or 0.1%). To put things in perspective, 2 000 000 (two million) attempts will produce from 1 950 to 2 050 helmets (this is close to the mathematical expectation for 1/1000 drop rate) with the 71% probability.

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@"Dami.5046" said:I think idea is to get you to actually you know play the game. I could be wrong of course as no one seems to want to play.

RNG has what I call an "interest curve" Its only interesting until you get pissed off about spending your time trying to get something and not getting it in a decent amount of time or at all

Your logic is flawed.

A grind would guarantee people play the game. RNG doesnt encourage me to play the game, in fact i've played less since the only reward I want is locked behind a lottery. I also stopped buying gems because why in the hell would I want to financially support a company that does this?

Fuck them.

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For the record, using only gw2efficiency data is a conservative estimate. The reality is that there are a lot more than 3,000 people interested in this achievement (and yes, there are more than 3,000 even on gw2efficiency), and that means higher demand than estimated. There are a lot more than 60,000 of these boxes that have been opened, and yet we've only seen a couple dozen of these drop, at most, in the weeks since release, which makes the drop rate lower than you might otherwise estimate. By constraining estimates to gw2efficiency users only, we can arrive at numbers that look more favorable than they really are, meaning an expected 1000 hours of gameplay per box is more favorable than the reality if you're grinding this out via new characters and map completion at a half hour per box.

You could also just buy keys and open the vault every day, which means you'll get your (first) Visage after an average of 5 years using gw2efficiency-based estimates, or realistically speaking probably more like 10-20 years.

At these drop rates and with the expected amount of demand, I think it's reasonable to believe that the price on these boxes will never drop below at least a few thousand gold per box. And yes, you do need three for the achievement.

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