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Will 3rd Expansion happen at all?


yefluke.3168

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@kharmin.7683 said:Didn't the layoff reduce the workforce to about what it was before? Weren't most of those laid off working on other projects outside of GW2?it reduced the workforce to what it was during time before HoT and shortly afer (so, small enough to not be able to work on both expansion and living story at the same time). And while most of the laid off people were indeed working on other projects at the moment the layoffs happened, most of them were first moved off GW2 to those other projects when Anet decided to not work on expansion 3 - basically, what got laid off was the expansion team, and people siphoned off from other teams. In fact, it was only during layoffs when we realized how many gw2 devs were silently moved off gw2 to other projects before, without us knowing.

@"lare.5129" said:pof get -20% than hot. Mounts not help? Cuurenlty now is perfect time, we get new players, no bumped useless palyers, some changes, it is very good.Except that is not what is happening. The game is not gaining players, and is not even able to retain the ones it had. Lack of the clear vision for the game's future causes it to hemorrhage players even faster than during the expansion times.

In short, expansions might not have been doing all that great, but the expansionless approach is doing even worse. And, while expansions did have at least a chance of turning things around (even if that chance didn't get realized for HoT or PoF), the current approach doesn't have a sliver of hope of doing that.

You complain about the useless "bumps", and see no point in that, without realizing that the LS cannot even do that. Yes, pure LS mode is cheaper, but it is for a reason: "cheaper" also means "lower quality".

Basically, what you say (even if you don't realize it), is "there's no reason to invest resources in this game, it is pointless, better to just leave it alone and let it die a slow but certain death".

I'm sorry, but the brutal truth is that lower investment will practically always mean worse results. And, what it worse, it also sends a message, saying "we're not willing to put as much effort in this game as before". And if you think that many players won't be able to see that (and react accordingly) then you're naive.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:Except that is not what is happening. The game is not gaining players, and is not even able to retain the ones it had. Lack of the clear vision for the game's future causes it to hemorrhage players even faster than during the expansion times.

Not trying to argue for the sake of arguing, but where is the proof behind these statements? Do we have actual numbers from ANet or is this conjecture based on subjective analysis?

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@"kharmin.7683" said:Not trying to argue for the sake of arguing, but where is the proof behind these statements? Do we have actual numbers from ANet or is this conjecture based on subjective analysis?

Game started with at most 200 employees (probably lower) according to http://web.archive.org/web/20120625140335/https://www.linkedin.com/company/arenanet(Company Size 51-200 employees) same was reported by media outlets at the time of the game's release.

Game reached 436 employees total in early 2019 (before the layoffs), then went down to 293 after they laid off 143 (https://www.geekwire.com/2019/guild-wars-2-developer-arenanet-confirms-layoffs-canceled-projects/) employees.

The number 293 is from the time of the layoffs, I got it from linkedin (page not available on the archive), 293+143 = 436Currently Arenanet has 281 employees on linkedin (still more than they had on release)Actually they have about 50% more employees now than they had when the game was released.

From the March 2016 AMA:http://dulfy.net/2016/03/05/gw2-reddit-developer-ama-summary/

120 devs working on live game, 70 devs on expansion 2, 30 devs on core teams that support both.

So about 220 developers a few months after the launch of Heart of Thorns.

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@kharmin.7683 said:Thanks, @maddoctor.2738 but I was asking for statistics from what @"Astralporing.1957" posted regarding the player base retention and the statement that the game is hemorrhaging players.

woops my bad.

I posted statistics from gw2efficiency earlier that show player reduction, or at least gw2efficiency player reduction:91.5% started Heart of Thorns, 66.2% killed Mordremoth67.2% started S3E1, 59.7% finished it62.4% started S3E2, 57.2% finished it63.3% started S3E3, 55.7% finished it59.6% started S3E4, 50.8% finished it56% started S3E5, 49.9% finished it52.7% started S3E6, 46.8% finished it79.9% started Path of Fire, 62% killed Balthazar57% started S4E1, 47.1% finished it47.9% started S4E2, 42.3% finished it48.7% started S4E3, 39.9% finished it40.6% started S4E4, 35.8% finished it36.3% started S4E5, 31.7% finished it32.8% started S4E6, 29.6% finished it

It's as "official" as it can get (note they are from 5 months ago)

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The Mad Doctor shows the "hidden" failure of expansion model: is that after expansion the demand for new content increase instead of decrease. Old players that return only because of expansion will be the first to finish the content first to leave and then, increases the perception that the game is dying. The more Anet decrease the gap between expansion/LS episodes more ppl will come to say the game is dying.

Between HoT and first LS3 episode was near 1 year without new content, and between POF and first LS4 episode was only 2 months. More ppl started S3E1 than S4E1. and S4 general had a lower engagment, a season delivered(With few exceptions) at 2 months cadence between each episode, meanwhile S3 had near 3 months on average between each episode.

Problem ANEt realized that being drive by the hype snowball is a error, if they drop a big expansion tomorrow the demand for new content will be even shorter: will take less than 1 year.

The LS1 fiasco "unrepeatable" content, is a direct result of the attempt to satisfy the hype snowball.

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@"maddoctor.2738" said:It's as "official" as it can get (note they are from 5 months ago)Thanks. So it is subjective analysis (not trying to be snarky). While I can agree that the stats shown from GW2Efficiency support your point, they admittedly do not represent a proper sampling of the player base let alone the entire player base. The claim that the game is hemorrhaging players can't be substantiated. Only ANet knows the true numbers.

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@"Astralporing.1957" said:Except that is not what is happening. The game is not gaining players, and is not even able to retain the ones it had. Lack of the clear vision for the game's future causes it to hemorrhage players even faster than during the expansion times.few years I am play on some mmo rpg where was 20 "donaters", 350-400 players, 40 bots, and was happy. Content size is 30%-50% if current gw2.Left only because the merge server wiht other players and I don't like so much players.So we have different vision about optimal players count.

In short, expansions might not have been doing all that great, but the expansionless approach is doing even worse. And, while expansions did have at least a chance of turning things around (even if that chance didn't get realized for HoT or PoF), the current approach doesn't have a sliver of hope of doing that.NO. Any expansion currently will be accepted like LS6.

You complain about the useless "bumps", and see no point in that, without realizing that the LS cannot even do that. Yes, pure LS mode is cheaper, but it is for a reason: "cheaper" also means "lower quality".I am not see any "lower quality"

Basically, what you say (even if you don't realize it), is "there's no reason to invest resources in this game, it is pointless, better to just leave it alone and let it die a slow but certain death".I say current content enough to play this game 20 years without any update till virtual reality world eat everything.

I'm sorry, but the brutal truth is that lower investment will practically always mean worse results. And, what it worse, it also sends a message, saying "we're not willing to put as much effort in this game as before". And if you think that many players won't be able to see that (and react accordingly) then you're naive.And I will be very glad if they left. Because for example: I am play on wvw on weekends and to much people on servers, to long queue.

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Not sure if the game can be 'saved'. Expansion would be nice, but I lost interest. Haven't even finished the first episode of icebrood and all my friends I know in real life quit playing. I think the game is in a pretty dire state, we just don't have any official stats.

The only thing I can imagine is some nostalgia thing like Cantha with a full fledged expansion which means: new races and professions (classes - or at least subclasses), 5-10 new maps, new raids and fractals/dungeons, new crafting discipline etc. You know the thing you expect from a AAA MMO. This never happened, not with HoT or PoF and least of all with Iceberg (er sorry Icebrood) Saga.

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@kharmin.7683 said:Thanks. So it is subjective analysis (not trying to be snarky). While I can agree that the stats shown from GW2Efficiency support your point, they admittedly do not represent a proper sampling of the player base let alone the entire player base. The claim that the game is hemorrhaging players can't be substantiated. Only ANet knows the true numbers.

And the lack of actual official numbers can be interpreted in certain ways as well.Many hypothesize that Blizzard not revealing WoW numbers means the playerbase is dwindling strongly.The same could be hypothesized about GW2 or FF14 (or any other game).

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@"ugrakarma.9416" said:Between HoT and first LS3 episode was near 1 year without new content, and between POF and first LS4 episode was only 2 months. More ppl started S3E1 than S4E1. and S4 general had a lower engagment, a season delivery(With few exceptions) at 2 months cadence between each episode, meanwhile S3 had near 3 months+between each episode.

I think you should check the releases page on the wiki: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Release

Season 3Out of the Shadows: July 2016Rising Flames: September 2016A Crack in the Ice: November 2016The Head of the Snake: February 2017Flashpoint: May 2017On Path Ends: July 2017

6 episodes in almost exactly 12 months (1 year), or 1 episode every 2 months on average.

Season 4Daybreak: November 2017A Bug in the System: March 2018Long Live the Lich: June 2018A Star to Guide Us: September 2018All or Nothing: January 2019War Eternal: May 2019

6 episodes in 18 months (1.5 year), or 1 episode every 3 months on average

Release cadence during S3 was far superior to the release cadence of S4.Between the release of Heart of Thorns (October 2015) and the start of Season 3 (July 2016) we have 9 months, during which we got 3 raid wings, a PVP league and the Winter/Spring Quarterly updates . Meanwhile between the release of Path of Fire (September 2017) and the start of Season 4 (November 2017) we had 2 months of absolute nothing. Even if you add up the totals: 21 months in HoT/S3 vs 20 months in PoF/S4 the difference is negligible, but Season 3 had more varied content, and once the Season started way faster episodes.

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@battledrone.8315 said:the core game is free, so they wont make much money on that . and the last maps in core are very disappointing, compared to the rest (IMO)the people, who like core are generally not fans of the expansions, and vise versathat is why most expansions give the casuals something too..new race or class

The core game might be free but the gem store isn't, that's like saying free to play games make no money. Expansions are things to chase further down the line, but if the game is suffering from retention issues it's not because expansions are hard, it's because the core game wasn't good enough to keep the player attention until they got to the expansion in the first place. The majority of players that quit the game were because of the core game and Arenanet has been trying to play catch up and stop the exodus since November 2012 (one of the reasons they gave for the introduction of Ascended gear). I'm not sure those who like the core are enough to sustain the game alone.

if the core game was bad, it would have shown much more, they didnt implode like swtor did.expansions sold much less, than the core game. if over 5 mio cant keep the game going, how would it be possible with much fewer?zhaitan is one of the bigger issues, the build up is WAY too long, and the ending is like a wet fart

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@battledrone.8315 said:expansions sold much less, than the core game.Most of the people that were still active when HoT arrived bought it, and it brought a number of players back. Additionally, mere information of its coming release was enough to stop a lot of players from quitting. Although, of course, some of the players ended up leaving due to some problems with HoT maps and metas (that were ultimately only partially fixed, and only after quite a lengthy delay). If devs listened a bit more before expansion launch, and adjusted things then (instead of waiting for half a yar after launch), things might have been better.

PoF had similar problem, but in the other direction - basically, their understanding of what players disliked in HoT was very shallow, and, as such, they adjusted wrong things. Which resulted in an expansion that was quite bland, and had very limited value for longterm play.

zhaitan is one of the bigger issues, the build up is WAY too long, and the ending is like a wet fartZhaitan, if you don't remember, is part of the core game

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@"battledrone.8315" said:expansions sold much less, than the core game

Maybe, just maybe, that's because the core game didn't keep those players entertained enough for long? Plus over-hype for the game as it was presented on every media outlet out there. Then the internet lost interest in the game and it lost its relevance. Is that a fault of the expansions? Also, a player that bought the core game but quit before even reaching level 80, or even before exiting the tutorial (!!!), wouldn't be interested in an expansion for that same game.

if the core game was bad, it would have shown much more, they didnt implode like swtor did.

If I recall the reason they introduced Ascended gear in the first place was to stop the exodus of players back then, players that were leaving in huge numbers stating "there is nothing to do", if this change in policy, and going against the very idea of "easy to acquire end-game gear stats, only play for cosmetics" isn't enough of a clue that something wasn't going well, then I don't know what is.

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I would think with the way things are going announcing a Cantha xpac (once its well underway) would create a lot of excitement for the game. (even though i personally don't care about going back to a GW1 area, i'd rather go to new places GW1 never went.) I can see the interest there with the community like Blizzards Classic Wow. But can GW2 do everything anet would hope for with a Cantha reboot in 2021 or is that something for GW3. A GW3 CANTHA start could reboot the game and game engine, but does it have to go there? Couldn't they just add a new engine to GW2? resources, human power, blah , blah , blah. It feels like GW2 needs a shot of adrenaline because the players feel like its slowing down.

I'd hope "saga" is just anet trying to do something new instead of an xpac for now. Same idea, different implementation.However i think its more like "saga" = slowly adding content while not spending too much and making money from the gemstore.

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Where are games going if mmos are dying? Life of a franchise is 3 years now? then re roll and make another game? what? i'd think subs would return if streaming services can do it- why not gaming franchises- hence GW3 a sub? eww? but isn't FF14 and WoW still subs and they're going strong? I mean i pref shelling out cash for an xpac and free good content till 2 years down the road and do it again, but if gw3 even had a 4.99 sub fee you'd lose players but would the content could be better as not relying on gemstore for profits. Sadly i'm sure there'd still be a gemstore. but regardless of subs, where are games going?

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@"maddoctor.2738" said:Release cadence during S3 was far superior to the release cadence of S4.

To be fair, the company had a lot more going on internally during LS4 than LS3 which detracted from the main process of developing GW2. Other projects, Jessica Price's meddling and scandal, NCSoft no doubt sticking its nose into things...lots of disruptions and distractions.

Also, to piggyback from something someone else said: the way LS1 was executed -- unrepeatable world-spanning events highly disruptive to the normal game, which drove lots of players (including me) away for years -- was arguably one of the biggest mistakes a MMO has ever survived making. I have no idea why so many people want to see it brought back. Besides, the only way they could bring LS1 back would be to totally rewrite and retcon it to death to fit the present state of the game, which would make even more old players angry. So LS1 was a thing that happened; move on. Don't make me start singing "Let It Go" because I really don't have the voice for it...

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@"Jimbru.6014" said:Also, to piggyback from something someone else said: the way LS1 was executed -- unrepeatable world-spanning events highly disruptive to the normal game, which drove lots of players (including me) away for years -- was arguably one of the biggest mistakes a MMO has ever survived making. I have no idea why so many people want to see it brought back.It's exactly why a lot of people want it to be brought back - because it was transitional, unrepeatable, and cannot be accessed anymore. Remember, what people want back is LS1 (and specifically the fun things they remember from LS1, like marionette), not the one-time blink and you miss it execution style.

Besides, the only way they could bring LS1 back would be to totally rewrite and retcon it to death to fit the present state of the game, which would make even more old players angry.And that's a fair point, and probably one of the reasons why it never was brought back. That doesn't prevent some people from hoping that it can be brought back somehow, in some form. The same, as a lot of developer statements that can only be read as "no, we're not working on expansion right now" does not prevent some people from believing that one is actually being worked on.

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@"battledrone.8315" said:expansions sold much less, than the core game

Maybe, just maybe, that's because the core game didn't keep those players entertained enough for long? Plus over-hype for the game as it was presented on every media outlet out there. Then the internet lost interest in the game and it lost its relevance. Is that a fault of the expansions? Also, a player that bought the core game but quit before even reaching level 80, or even before exiting the tutorial (!!!), wouldn't be interested in an expansion for that same game.

if the core game was bad, it would have shown much more, they didnt implode like swtor did.

If I recall the reason they introduced Ascended gear in the first place was to stop the exodus of players back then, players that were leaving in huge numbers stating "there is nothing to do", if this change in policy, and going against the very idea of "easy to acquire end-game gear stats, only play for cosmetics" isn't enough of a clue that something wasn't going well, then I don't know what is.

nope, word got out, that hot wasnt good. it almost feels like a different game. they still have to prop it up with insane rewards.and catering to the hardcore content locusts never work out, as you say, theyre the first to complain, and the first to leave.

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I'd happily pay a good $100 for a new expansion

Then again maybe they have weighed in the amount of work and time that is needed to go into an expansion vs the revenue from it, wasnt worth it maybe

I love this game to bits and camt seem to move on from this game but after 7 long years really running out of things to do...

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@"lare.5129" said:So, you accept my words ???

I'll write it a bit more simple: I'd rather get all the content of an expansion instead of the similarly priced "expansion level content" that we get with the Living World. You want -some- players to pay for overpriced "expansion level content" so free loaders can continue playing the game. That's the free to play model, only this game ain't exactly free. We already see where it leads: to an exodus of players and reduction in both population and revenue, as clearly deduced by the data. If players liked the Living World content then we would see a surge in both players and revenue, but we don't. Facts and actual data suggest that expansions are better for the game and for its players.

expansions take time and story build up. People not willing to wait for the LW5 to build up story for the third expansion and time to make the expansion.

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