Mystic Chest - Review it Maybe?

[Luna Leon.3480]

I returned this year after 4 year break. I had 10 Essences of Halloween in my bank and 1 mystic chest. I said to craft them all and the open but since years pasts I thought to check cost/winning rate (after crafting 1).

If I calculate everything correct, you need ~164g to craft 10 MC and to make profit you Need to get the Essence of Lion's Arch (0.01 chance).Any other drop you don't even get close to make even with your cost. That's 99,99% for big losses at least (not to say huge).

So maybe to review it? Either make it MUCH cheaper to craft or change the standard drops and quantity of items and the drop chance of essences?

Unless I calculate them wrong!

[Ayrilana.1396]

Never mind. You used MC so I though you were referring to mystic coins and this the old recipe.

[Luna Leon.3480]

@Ayrilana.1396 said:Never mind. You used MC so I though you were referring to mystic coins and this the old recipe.

:) I didn't thought that MC might have been confusing :). I think old recipe was cheaper than the new one :)

[Khisanth.2948]

I guess this was released back when leather was very cheap?

A simple change would be adding recipes for all the rest of the t5 and maybe t6 common materials or just call it a sink for gossamer.

[Leablo.2651]

According to Spidy:

• Thick leather began to spike in Halloween 2015 (when this recipe was introduced)
• Within a day, leather price was already at 60c and rising (same as now)
• Afterward, and until the end of 2017 (Istan crash), thick leather floated 2s apiece

Except at the very start of that Halloween, the cost of crafting these items now is much cheaper than it was for the first 2 years of availability.

[ReaverKane.7598]

Good luck with that...There's a ton of recipes that were changed or created as extremely inflated because Arena Net likes inflation.And not only did their changes do nothing, but also they are still in effect tod this day. (Case in point the 100 silk cost on Ascended Cloth, while all other materials cost 50, making light armor much more expensive for years, and yet silk is back to being dirt cheap, practically worthless).

[Luna Leon.3480]

Yea I get all that, but crafting armor or legendary etc is different than Mystic Chest. Chest you do it to gamble lets say for a chance to win big. But when chances to win are 0.01% that's a rip off and not a gamble any more.

The easiest/fastest fix for me atm is to reduce the requested 3 stacks of 250 Cured TL to 3 stacks of 50 CTL. That will balance the loss > even > win chances of the gamble part.

E.g. the Sandstorm Flush Hand, the other gamble item in game, yes it is expensive as well but you have logical possibilities of winning , losing or getting even.

[Cyninja.2954]

@"Luna Leon.3480" said:I returned this year after 4 year break. I had 10 Essences of Halloween in my bank and 1 mystic chest. I said to craft them all and the open but since years pasts I thought to check cost/winning rate (after crafting 1).

If I calculate everything correct, you need ~164g to craft 10 MC and to make profit you Need to get the Essence of Lion's Arch (0.01 chance).Any other drop you don't even get close to make even with your cost. That's 99,99% for big losses at least (not to say huge).

So maybe to review it? Either make it MUCH cheaper to craft or change the standard drops and quantity of items and the drop chance of essences?

Unless I calculate them wrong!

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Chest

Yes, you did calculate wrong.

Also there are a ton of insanely rare drops or recipes in game. Not sure why this one suddenly needs changing.

[Luna Leon.3480]

Yes, you did calculate wrong.What exactly did I calculate wrong? I did review the wiki. Several times. Rate of Winning - Losing - Draw has a HUGE gap. Unless you point me the point that I am wrong so I go back and review it again.

Also there are a ton of insanely rare drops or recipes in game. Not sure why this one suddenly needs changing.Because this one I am trying at this point. How is this related with my question? Because it maybe another "faulty" recipe/item, I shouldn't mention this one? Logic?

[Cyninja.2954]

@"Luna Leon.3480" said:

Yes, you did calculate wrong.What exactly did I calculate wrong? I did review the wiki. Several times. Rate of Winning - Losing - Draw has a

HUGE

gap. Unless you point me the point that I am wrong so I go back and review it again.

Your argunent revolved around the 1 ultra high drop. You did not account AT ALL for any of the other valuable results, most of which can recuperate at least part of the cost, some net more than the cost. As such your main argument is flawed, or at the very least incorrect.

Yes, this remains a gamble.

You specifically asked if your math was incorrect. I pointed out that it is.

Also there are a ton of insanely rare drops or recipes in game. Not sure why this one suddenly needs changing.Because this one I am trying at this point. How is this related with my question? Because it maybe another "faulty" recipe/item, I shouldn't mention this one? Logic?

Well if that is your arguement all I can say is: this game, and more specifically this games economy, does not revolve around what you want.

You are free to ask for anything obviously but in this case this is simply a "I want this because, well because I want it".

[Luna Leon.3480]

Your argument revolved around the 1 ultra high drop. You did not account AT ALL for any of the other valuable results, most of which can recuperate at least part of the cost, some net more than the cost. As such your main argument is flawed, or at the very least incorrect.

Yes, after reviewing it again I saw that I was not totally correct. The only point I can argue is that even for a gamble part of the game... Giving just 10% of chances (that's the official % to get a "valuable" drop) to get even or bit profit (not to mention the 0.1% to get the high drop) is just ridiculous in my opinion. And maybe it is because the Cured Thick Leather has high price.

I really believe that if it was 3 stacks of 50 or even 100 CTL instead of 250 it would be more logical/balanced.