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How Fair / Unfair is the Mytic Forge when it comes to precursors?


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So I am a relatively new player - I started my quest in Tyria about 14 months ago, so I am still a noob (compared to the guys that have been around since the start of Guild Wars 1) My question is this: How much gold does one need to spend to earn at least one precursor from the Mystic Toilet? I have been tossing in rare and exotic Greatswords like tomorrow is not coming, and all I seem to be getting back is more useless crap I could have crafted myself. A fellow Guildie of mine ( let's call him Mister X) has only been playing for about 4 months, yet in the past 2 months this dude has had the pleasure of SEVEN precursors, including a Dawn and a Legend. The Legend alone is worth more than 400g. So please can someone explain to me, how 2 people that make use of the Forge every single day, spending hard earned gold through farming and crafting (because not everybody has the luxury of visiting the Gem Store every other day) and yet only person seems to be reaping the rewards of Zomorros' impressive arsenal of goodies. I can't help but feel cheated. Either Arena Net hates me or I have the worst luck in the world

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This is not a bug.

The same amount of fair as people playing 1 year getting 3 https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Tequatl%27s_Hoard or https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Pile_of_Regurgitated_Armor while people playing 7 years have received none.

Having legendary crafting (supposedly) increases the precursor obtain chance (though I have not seen any proof of this).

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@ekisJohann.1508 said:Yeah, waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many sides in my opinion. I think the devs should think about spreading these yummy rewards a little bit more evenly between players, especially if they spend between 5 - 8 hours per day playing their game

It’s RNG. You have just as much probability of getting a precursor with a particular attempt as everyone else. The game doesn’t need some form of affirmative action for those that experience bad RNG or don’t play many hours.

If you don’t want to get them through RNG then unlock the HoT expansion and craft it.

Or, depending on the cost of the precursor, just farm the gold and buy it off the TP.

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Maybe I have been watching too many YouTube videos but I feel like this is the perfect segue into an ad for Brilliant ...

@ekisJohann.1508 said:So I am a relatively new player - I started my quest in Tyria about 14 months ago, so I am still a noob (compared to the guys that have been around since the start of Guild Wars 1) My question is this: How much gold does one need to spend to earn at least one precursor from the Mystic Toilet? I have been tossing in rare and exotic Greatswords like tomorrow is not coming, and all I seem to be getting back is more useless kitten I could have crafted myself.

This is not a great idea ... there have been various published attempts to determine the rate of precursors using exotics. From memory that rate was around 0.7% or around 1 in 143 forges on average which definitely does not mean you are guaranteed get 1 with 143 forges. https://gw2.silveress.ie/precursors has some pretty comprehensive data on that but it is not loading right now for some reason. Both on that site and on previous attempts people have had long streaks of 0 precursor drops. If I remember correctly the streaks went as high as over 500.

You can also take a more simplistic look at it and ignore the details. Assume you will get 1 in 143 forges. That is 430 exotic greatswords. At ~1.3g each that would mean spending 559g to get a 679g(Dusk) or 500g(Dawn) item. In this scenario you still have a 50% chance of getting the wrong precursor and end up losing gold.

You could reduce investment cost by using a mix of the cheaper weapon types but that will also massively increase your risk of getting one of the cheap precursors.

A fellow Guildie of mine ( let's call him Mister X) has only been playing for about 4 months, yet in the past 2 months this dude has had the pleasure of SEVEN precursors, including a Dawn and a Legend.

Play time means nothing since it depends on the amount of forges.

The Legend alone is worth more than 400g. So please can someone explain to me, how 2 people that make use of the Forge every single day, spending hard earned gold through farming and crafting (because not everybody has the luxury of visiting the Gem Store every other day) and yet only person seems to be reaping the rewards of Zomorros' impressive arsenal of goodies. I can't help but feel cheated. Either Arena Net hates me or I have the worst luck in the world

Some basic understanding of statistics is extremely useful for videogames. Especially ones with random elements. Even more useful with some many games using loot boxes and gacha stuff.

@ekisJohann.1508 said:Yeah, waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many sides in my opinion. I think the devs should think about spreading these yummy rewards a little bit more evenly between players, especially if they spend between 5 - 8 hours per day playing their game

Which would reduce the value of the precursors while increasing the chances that you are simply wasting gold.

You should be thankful that the devs are providing you with a valuable lesson, investing without risk management is a bad idea. Many people have done the same with real money and end up losing everything.

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If you put in 4 level 80 exotic weapons the chance of getting a precursor back is estimated to be 1.79%. If you use rare weapons or anything below level 80 the chance is lower. There are no modifiers on that - there's nothing to say newer or older accounts should have better luck or after X attempts your chances go up, every single time any player does it the chance is the same. Therefore there will be standard deviations between players - some will be extremely lucky, some will be extremely unlucky and most will fall somewhere in between (but often remember streaks of good or bad luck more than their actual total or overall average). None of that is a bug, it's just how probability works.

Throwing rares or exotics into the Forge hoping for a precusor is not a reliable way to get one, or a good way of making gold. There is a chance you'll make a profit, but there's a higher chance you'll lose gold overall and an additional chance (which does vary between players) that if you do make a profit you'll decide you're on a lucky streak "reinvest" it all in more weapons to throw in the Forge and end up with nothing and a nagging desire to keep going until you at least get back what you once had even if you ultimately lose even more gold in the process.

If you want a precusor the best way to get it is to either craft it or buy it from the Trading Post. Buying it can sometimes be cheaper but you'll need to check the cost of crafting the one you want because prices change all the time, there are websites that can help with this. Crafting is the most reliable way to get one and even when it's more expensive some players prefer it because it spreads the cost out and it can feel more like you're earning it yourself.

If you want lots of gold then you need to research profitable farms. Two things to bear in mind are that this isn't the kind of game where you can pick an item or a few items and farm those indefinitely to make gold, prices and demand shifts all the time so you'll need to change what you're farming to keep making a profit.

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@"ekisJohann.1508" said:Yeah, waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many sides in my opinion. I think the devs should think about spreading these yummy rewards a little bit more evenly between players, especially if they spend between 5 - 8 hours per day playing their game

the only thing that makes precursors "yummy" and valuable is their rarity. if they were more common, they would be.. well.. common. there wouldnt be anything special about them, and you probably wouldnt even bother throwing your rare and exotics into the toilet anymore.

the devs already took a step towards players like you by introducing precursor collections which remove the rng part entirely. so you might think about doing those instead of gambling.

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Not sure what your situation is, but if you're working and can afford it a single precursor off the TP is just a coupla hours work, gems to gold. By far the most efficient use of your time probably.

Of course, crafting your own can be a satisfying journey in itself for some people, but it's quite long and often more expensive.

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@Randulf.7614 said:Out of curiosity, how do you know your guildie has had 7 precursors from the forge?

Well Randulf I know this because he is on my friends list, we were in the same Guild for a while. He links them in the chat, and he proved this to me by sending me the Chaos precursor (item is worth 73 gold). He is a very trust worthy guy, and I believe him.

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@TwoGhosts.6790 said:Not sure what your situation is, but if you're working and can afford it a single precursor off the TP is just a coupla hours work, gems to gold. By far the most efficient use of your time probably.

Of course, crafting your own can be a satisfying journey in itself for some people, but it's quite long and often more expensive.

I am unemployed thanks to Corona :(

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@ekisJohann.1508 said:

@TwoGhosts.6790 said:Not sure what your situation is, but if you're working and can afford it a single precursor off the TP is just a coupla hours work, gems to gold. By far the most efficient use of your time probably.

Of course, crafting your own can be a satisfying journey in itself for some people, but it's quite long and often more expensive.

I am unemployed thanks to Corona :(

Awww damn, that sucks man, sorry to hear.

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I'm one of those who has played GW2 since the early GW1 days. No precursors from the Forge, but the shield did drop from me from a low-level chest in (I believe) Caledon Forest. I just save up eligible rare weapon drops until I get 4 of a kind, or use 4 randoms of ones I don't care about, and toss those in the Forge.

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@ekisJohann.1508 said:

@Randulf.7614 said:Out of curiosity, how do you know your guildie has had 7 precursors from the forge?

Well Randulf I know this because he is on my friends list, we were in the same Guild for a while. He links them in the chat, and he proved this to me by sending me the Chaos precursor (item is worth 73 gold). He is a very trust worthy guy, and I believe him.

I had a guildie in an old guild, linking winning hands in Sandstorm, every day. Doesn't make it true.

You can paste anything into chat and post it.

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@keenedge.9675 said:

@Randulf.7614 said:Out of curiosity, how do you know your guildie has had 7 precursors from the forge?

Well Randulf I know this because he is on my friends list, we were in the same Guild for a while. He links them in the chat, and he proved this to me by sending me the Chaos precursor (item is worth 73 gold). He is a very trust worthy guy, and I believe him.

I had a guildie in an old guild, linking winning hands in Sandstorm, every day. Doesn't make it true.

You can paste anything into chat and post it.Well, sometimes you also just know. Had a guildie a long time ago that pulled precursors out of the forge every other week, lol. All she did was toss in stuff.

Personally I dumped 10 ascalonian greatswords into the forge on wednesday I believe it was, to try and get a little more gold to fund BL keys for the wings.

Got Dusk.

And after some 75 keys I gave up getting the wings btw, because I got the stupid raptor and the stupid flame cloak and said fuck it I aint gambling anymore.

Then I dumped some 15ish assorted dungeon swords friday I think, as I noticed I had tokens for them left.

Got Dusk.

RNG is RNG.

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I would KILL for just one precursor, even if it was just a stupid underwater trident or something. Getting a Dusk seems like something that will only happen in my dreams. Lol Lol Lol. Thanx to everyone who is taking the time to read my post and to everyone who is replying. Btw, I did drop in some greatswords earlier - again only KITTEN. Lol

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