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Black Lion Chest Uncommon Drop Rate


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FWIW

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

The sample size is sufficient to at least allow for a ball park idea.

That shows an uncommon drop rate of just over 7%. However, if that chance occurs, the game will roll on an Uncommon table for you. Currently, there are 5 items on that table...

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest

What I can't seem to find is whether there is a 20% chance for each of the 5, or whether some items are weighted heavier than others.

caveat emptor: even if you find a chance of ~7% acceptable, be aware that the chance resets on each roll; there is no guarantee that if you open 100 chests, you will get 7 uncommon drops. You might get more, you might get loss... or none.

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Honestly, if that's the only thing you want in the BLC, try to wait until the item is either in the Gem Shop or at the Black Lion Chest Statuette vendor. Plus by the time it is in one of those spots, there may be something else you want more. Not to sound all woo woo, but if you don't go into opening BLCs with the mindset that you'll be content no matter what you get, there's a high chance you'll be disappointed.

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@Witch of Doom.5739 said:Honestly, if that's the only thing you want in the BLC, try to wait until the item is either in the Gem Shop or at the Black Lion Chest Statuette vendor. Plus by the time it is in one of those spots, there may be something else you want more. Not to sound all woo woo, but if you don't go into opening BLCs with the mindset that you'll be content no matter what you get, there's a high chance you'll be disappointed.

Oh? Do items like those actually show up elsewhere eventually like that?

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@Archangel.1357 said:

@Witch of Doom.5739 said:Honestly, if that's the only thing you want in the BLC, try to wait until the item is either in the Gem Shop or at the Black Lion Chest Statuette vendor. Plus by the time it is in one of those spots, there may be something else you want more. Not to sound all woo woo, but if you don't go into opening BLCs with the mindset that you'll be content no matter what you get, there's a high chance you'll be disappointed.

Oh? Do items like those actually show up elsewhere eventually like that?

Many do. If players keep requesting them here on the forums (see dedicated thread for GS requests), ANet often listens.

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@"Erroi.3426" said:I opened 100 chests. Got that ugly raptor and 0 sweet cloaks. I feel silly for falling to this rip-off trap again.

Yeah, I believe the saying is "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me". :)

I bought one set of 25 keys a loooooong time ago and realised that ArenaNet's definition of "uncommon" was drastically different from mine. Never again.

As someone suggests, it's better (or cheaper) to wait until it's obtainable by other means.

Yeah, I'm not sure if it'll be added to the Black Lion voucher system for the anniversary this year, but they probably will be by next year. https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Backpack_and_Glider_Voucher

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I get the point where Belgium forbids purchasing of Black Lion Keys as it is recognised as a gambling activity. Which it clearly is.At least, transparency would be appreciated instead of vague "uncommon". Secretive "extremely rare" should be limited to Chak infusion drop rate.

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There is almost zero chance that this will be added to the gemshop as an outright purchase.Backpack/gliders that are RNG from black lion chests don't get added to the vouchers either (just the ones you can buy outright for gems).

It will at some point be available to purchase with statuettes... and the only way to get enough statuettes (60) is by using BL keys to open chests. So either way, the only way to get this item is to get keys and open chests. It comes down to if you want it badly enough to either dedicate to doing key farms weekly and/or buying keys.

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