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HoT = Dark Souls ? Casual Gamer perspective.


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@maddoctor.2738 said:

Given how the game, at its best, had 400k concurrent players, when it sold 3 million copies in just 4 months, it's safe to assume that the number of populated instances required for a "Successful hot" would only be a tiny fraction of that, since the majority of players stopped playing the game thanks to the core.You know that the majority of players that quit was due to core... how?

There are multiple ways to count players (or to be more accurate, accounts), one such hint is the fact that 50% of the total game's accounts have less than 268 Achievement Points. Which means these player accounts stopped a very long time before reaching HOT (or even the end game of Core for that matter) And that of course doesn't include all those players that quit the game much later after accumulating a lot of achievement points, by playing the game more actively. And still quit long before the expansion even hit.

You have this actual data of 50% of the game's accounts? Or are you using GW2Efficiency to make this claim?

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@Cuks.8241 said:

@battledrone.8315 said:go to any mmo and find a super easy mission with a good reward. its gonna cramped with players there.now go to the endgame zones with all the HARDCORE content, and see if you can find even a handful of players.fast and easy sells, slow and hard not so much.

Interesting that Hot is consistently populated with players for years now, at least one map for meta at any gives time of day and packed on busy hours. That you can get a fractal group of any difficulty in 1 minute anytime and even dungeons are not an issue after all this time.Core Tyria, kinda empty.

Add amalgamated gemstones to core tyria world bosses, and it would be the same. Nothing special about that. Rewards are the only thing that motivate people, for some reason.

Why are Pof metas then less populated than Hot? They all give amalgamated gemstones. And Pof metas are easier, faster and require less people and less coordination than Hot. They are not much different than most off the longer event chains, many can be done by like 5 people. The only that is really populated is Casino Blitz.Besides amalgamated have dropped to 70 s lately.

Except not really. You can say they require more coordination, and it may have seemed like it when they were new and the HoT metas were old, but they are all the same now. You just need a miracle to get people to actually do the events, instead of just standing there, waiting for someone else to do it for you as you watch netflix and wait to get rewarded.

Effort is the bane of MMO players. They aren't faster, they are the same, but since the players can't stand in one place spamming auto-attack throughout most of the meta, they just continue to do the same old ones instead. Simple as that.

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@kharmin.7683 said:

Given how the game, at its best, had 400k concurrent players, when it sold 3 million copies in just 4 months, it's safe to assume that the number of populated instances required for a "Successful hot" would only be a tiny fraction of that, since the majority of players stopped playing the game thanks to the core.You know that the majority of players that quit was due to core... how?

There are multiple ways to count players (or to be more accurate, accounts), one such hint is the fact that 50% of the total game's accounts have less than 268 Achievement Points. Which means these player accounts stopped a very long time before reaching HOT (or even the end game of Core for that matter) And that of course doesn't include all those players that quit the game much later after accumulating a lot of achievement points, by playing the game more actively. And still quit long before the expansion even hit.

You have this actual data of 50% of the game's accounts? Or are you using GW2Efficiency to make this claim?

I use the official leaderboards, it's not a "claim" but actual data. I don't have the data from every player in the game, only from those on my friendlist and guilds. If you want to be precise, the top player at 50% on my list has 268 AP, and the bottom player at 60% has 323 AP, so the turn point between 50% and 60% is between 268 and 323 AP. Doesn't make much of a difference anyway.

By the way, going from 80% to 90% is between 2754 and 2889, which is also much less than the amount anyone that played the game for years would have, reinforcing the idea of most players quitting the game early (core) and not thanks to HOT.

But it's also easy to verify using Anet's financial data and the rather sizable drop in their revenue between 2013 and 2015. The game sold 2 million copies (actual copies, not accounts) between January 2013 and August 2015 (confirmed by Arenanet), meaning a lot of their revenue in that period was from in-game purchases, which was in a steep decline. This tells us that either players indeed quit (again: long before HOT) or simply stopped paying, which for Arenanet is almost the same.

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@kharmin.7683 said:Players quitting or players not paying is definitely not the same thing. While I appreciate the argument that you're making, the claims are unsubstantiated.

What do you mean? A player with 268 achievement points reached HOT and quit after finding too difficult? A player with 268 AP hasn't even reached Orr for crying out loud.

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@kharmin.7683 said:Players quitting or players not paying is definitely not the same thing. While I appreciate the argument that you're making, the claims are unsubstantiated.

What do you mean? A player with 268 achievement points reached HOT and quit after finding too difficult? A player with 268 AP hasn't even reached Orr for crying out loud.

I mean that your evidence to support your point/claim is anecdotal at best, or hyperbolic at worst. You make it seem that half the player population up and quit because of HoT when you can't back that up with credible statistics. It unnecessarily fuels panic about the state of the game.

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@kharmin.7683 said:

@kharmin.7683 said:Players quitting or players not paying is definitely not the same thing. While I appreciate the argument that you're making, the claims are unsubstantiated.

What do you mean? A player with 268 achievement points reached HOT and quit after finding too difficult? A player with 268 AP hasn't even reached Orr for crying out loud.

I mean that your evidence to support your point/claim is anecdotal at best, or hyperbolic at worst. You make it seem that half the player population up and quit because of HoT when you can't back that up with credible statistics. It unnecessarily fuels panic about the state of the game.

How did you come to the conclusion that half the player population quit because of HOT? The statistics I provided indicate (with credibility) that more than half the population quit before HOT was even announced. I don't see how is that a secret or even something that fuels panic.

The game sold 5 million copies before the launch of HOT. If those 5 million sales were still playing the game when HOT was released, then HOT revenue would've been much hotter (pun intended)

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@kharmin.7683 said:Ok, I disagree. Your statistics are not credible in that they do not account for all accounts. Only Anet has this information. At any rate, I'm not going to argue this further with you since we cannot agree on a common ground from which to even begin to debate.

What do you mean they do not account for all accounts? They are the official leaderboards and they contain data from every account in the game.

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@kharmin.7683 said:Ok, I disagree. Your statistics are not credible in that they do not account for all accounts. Only Anet has this information. At any rate, I'm not going to argue this further with you since we cannot agree on a common ground from which to even begin to debate.

What do you mean they do not account for all accounts? They are the official leaderboards and they contain data from every account in the game.

I think @kharmin.7683 is just misunderstanding your point, doc. You're clearly arguing that the available data strongly suggests that a big chunk of people quit the game well before HoT was a thing, but khar seems to be thinking that you're one of the people blaming HoT itself for the quitting.

I've also taken a look at the leaderboards, and noticed the same things you did, @maddoctor.2738, and came to the same conclusions. An absolutely staggering number of people seem to quit playing before experiencing even a small proportion of what the overall game has to offer. Just on the path to my first level 80 character (no xpacs purchased at the time), I think I ended up with 4K AP just from going to different places and trying different things. I certainly don't believe HoT drove away as many players as the complainers claim it did.

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@"kharmin.7683" a bit of "explaining":Go here: https://leaderboards.guildwars2.com/en/eu/achievements and login, in the filter dropdown you can select Friends, to show players on your friend list, or Guild which will allow you to select one of your guilds if you are in multiple ones.The first column on the list shows your position if you are in the top 1000 in the game. So if it shows 521, you are in 521st place of all the accounts in your region (NA or EU)If the first column is a percentage, which will usually be, it shows how much of the playerbase is under you in AP. So if it shows 90%, you are in the top 10% of the playerbase, if it shows 50%, you are at the middle point. Note: this is the total of every single account in your region, it's not 90% of your friends or 90% of your guild. It's 90% of the entire playerbase, so it's official and accurate.

The second column is the account's name, the third column is amount of AP they have and the fourth the home server they play from.

As I said in my earlier post:

If you want to be precise, the top player at 50% on my list has 268 AP, and the bottom player at 60% has 323 AP, so the turn point between 50% and 60% is between 268 and 323 AP.

If you want to do the same thought process, open your friend list or a guild list on that website and figure out where a percentage changes, in my example above I found the player in my list(s) with the highest number of AP at 50% and compared it to the lowest number of AP someone at 60% has, this way I can get a pretty accurate number of where the percentages change, in the example above the change from above 50% to above 60% of the playerbase is between 268 and 323.

It's statistics available to everyone and it gets more accurate, the more friends and the more guilds you have. I can tell the change point is between 268 and 323, but to find a more accurate number I need to find players, and add them in my friend list, that have between those two numbers to get a more accurate result. But still it's both official data AND for the entire playerbase, if official statistics about every account in the game isn't "credible" enough for you, then I don't know what is.

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@Yggranya.5201 said:

Why are Pof metas then less populated than Hot? They all give amalgamated gemstones. And Pof metas are easier, faster and require less people and less coordination than Hot. They are not much different than most off the longer event chains, many can be done by like 5 people. The only that is really populated is Casino Blitz.Besides amalgamated have dropped to 70 s lately.

Except not really. You can say they require more coordination, and it may have seemed like it when they were new and the HoT metas were old, but they are all the same now. You just need a miracle to get people to actually do the events, instead of just standing there, waiting for someone else to do it for you as you watch netflix and wait to get rewarded.

Effort is the bane of MMO players. They aren't faster, they are the same, but since the players can't stand in one place spamming auto-attack throughout most of the meta, they just continue to do the same old ones instead. Simple as that.

Junundu, Maw, Augury you can do with ~ 5 people. Maybe I'm exaggerating with Maw but the other 2 I have done with 5 maybe even less. The events are basically just straight lines. Maw and Junundu give an impression of more than one lane but in reality, you can just do them one after another.Casino blitz and Treasure hunt don't even require any cooperation at all. You are basically solo. You need like 8 people to get enough coins in blitz.The only real meta is Vabbi.

Dragon Stand you need around 45 people for the merry go around phase. You need 3 groups (commanders are really welcome, won't say necessary) that later split into 6 groups for the merry go around and boss on all 3 lanes. Now to be sure of success I would say 60 people is much better than 45.

Gerrent I would say you need 40 people. A few less would maybe do but more won't hurt also to be sure of success. There is not much cooperation beyond splitting into lanes and not letting chak getting to cannon but it is not even comparable to Pof simplicity.Could go on but the point is no, they are not even closely the same. Only Verdant Brink is easy comparable if you only come for the Matriarch kill.

You can probably do most of the Pof metas in the time you do DS. And still Hot metas are full all the time. Also there certainly is effort required. Yes you can be part of the cannon fodder and just 1111 through DS or Gerrent. But for you to do it you need at least a few people that put in the effort of putting up tags and communicating the lanes in order.

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@"ASP.8093" said:What I find so confusing about this "HoT dropped difficulty out of nowhere" narrative is that stuff like Toxic Alliance or Season 2 Mordrem did kinda prepare you for HoT monsters pretty well, imo.

New/returning players didn't play/have season 2, so those who simply followed the story went from Orr to HoT. When Steam floods in, it's going to be a repeat.

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

@kharmin.7683 said:Ok, I disagree. Your statistics are not credible in that they do not account for all accounts. Only Anet has this information. At any rate, I'm not going to argue this further with you since we cannot agree on a common ground from which to even begin to debate.

What do you mean they do not account for all accounts? They are the official leaderboards and they contain data from every account in the game.

I'd be surpised if i'm even on that leaderboard, i've not done PvP, WvW in like 6 to 8 years, and raids i've never done and fractals again 3 years or so.

I just checked my account is not even on those leaderboards even after logging in..

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@maddoctor.2738 said:

Given how the game, at its best, had 400k concurrent players, when it sold 3 million copies in just 4 months, it's safe to assume that the number of populated instances required for a "Successful hot" would only be a tiny fraction of that, since the majority of players stopped playing the game thanks to the core.You know that the majority of players that quit was due to core... how?

There are multiple ways to count players (or to be more accurate, accounts), one such hint is the fact that 50% of the total game's accounts have less than 268 Achievement Points. Which means these player accounts stopped a very long time before reaching HOT (or even the end game of Core for that matter) And that of course doesn't include all those players that quit the game much later after accumulating a lot of achievement points, by playing the game more actively. And still quit long before the expansion even hit.

You have this actual data of 50% of the game's accounts? Or are you using GW2Efficiency to make this claim?

I use the official leaderboards, it's not a "claim" but actual data. I don't have the data from every player in the game, only from those on my friendlist and guilds. If you want to be precise, the top player at 50% on my list has 268 AP, and the bottom player at 60% has 323 AP, so the turn point between 50% and 60% is between 268 and 323 AP. Doesn't make much of a difference anyway.

By the way, going from 80% to 90% is between 2754 and 2889, which is also much less than the amount anyone that played the game for years would have, reinforcing the idea of most players quitting the game early (core) and not thanks to HOT.

But it's also easy to verify using Anet's financial data and the rather sizable drop in their revenue between 2013 and 2015. The game sold 2 million copies (actual copies, not accounts) between January 2013 and August 2015 (confirmed by Arenanet), meaning a lot of their revenue in that period was from in-game purchases, which was in a steep decline. This tells us that either players indeed quit (again: long before HOT) or simply stopped paying, which for Arenanet is almost the same.

which is the same period, that they had a long content drought , right?

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@voltaicbore.8012 said:

@kharmin.7683 said:Ok, I disagree. Your statistics are not credible in that they do not account for all accounts. Only Anet has this information. At any rate, I'm not going to argue this further with you since we cannot agree on a common ground from which to even begin to debate.

What do you mean they do not account for all accounts? They are the official leaderboards and they contain data from every account in the game.

I think @kharmin.7683 is just misunderstanding your point, doc. You're clearly arguing that the available data strongly suggests that a big chunk of people quit the game well
before
HoT was a thing, but khar seems to be thinking that you're one of the people blaming HoT itself for the quitting.

I've also taken a look at the leaderboards, and noticed the same things you did, @maddoctor.2738, and came to the same conclusions. An absolutely staggering number of people seem to quit playing before experiencing even a small proportion of what the overall game has to offer. Just on the path to my first level 80 character (no xpacs purchased at the time), I think I ended up with 4K AP just from going to different places and trying different things. I certainly don't believe HoT drove away as many players as the complainers claim it did.

even the BEST MMO IN HISTORY loses 80 % of the players before lvl 20how many mmos have you tried? how many of them did you uninstall in the first hour?they still had over a mio that was ready to pay for the expansion, that means, that core is roughly on par with wow in that regardthis means, that core performed well indeed (even with the horrible ending), and hot didnt

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@voltaicbore.8012 said:

@kharmin.7683 said:Ok, I disagree. Your statistics are not credible in that they do not account for all accounts. Only Anet has this information. At any rate, I'm not going to argue this further with you since we cannot agree on a common ground from which to even begin to debate.

What do you mean they do not account for all accounts? They are the official leaderboards and they contain data from every account in the game.

I think @kharmin.7683 is just misunderstanding your point, doc. You're clearly arguing that the available data strongly suggests that a big chunk of people quit the game well
before
HoT was a thing, but khar seems to be thinking that you're one of the people blaming HoT itself for the quitting.

I've also taken a look at the leaderboards, and noticed the same things you did, @maddoctor.2738, and came to the same conclusions. An absolutely staggering number of people seem to quit playing before experiencing even a small proportion of what the overall game has to offer. Just on the path to my first level 80 character (no xpacs purchased at the time), I think I ended up with 4K AP just from going to different places and trying different things. I certainly don't believe HoT drove away as many players as the complainers claim it did.

"many " is subjective, im guessing about ½ of the remaining players left over hot, somewhere between 500k-1 mioin any other business, heads would had rolled for that.

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@"ASP.8093" said:What I find so confusing about this "HoT dropped difficulty out of nowhere" narrative is that stuff like Toxic Alliance or Season 2 Mordrem did kinda prepare you for HoT monsters pretty well, imo.

never touched those, and i doubt the average player even know of their existance. neither did i BTWthe names alone are enough to put them at the bottom of my to do list, sound like hardcore stuff IMO

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@battledrone.8315 said:

@"ASP.8093" said:What I find so confusing about this "HoT dropped difficulty out of nowhere" narrative is that stuff like Toxic Alliance or Season 2 Mordrem did kinda prepare you for HoT monsters pretty well, imo.

never touched those, and i doubt the average player even know of their existance. neither did i BTWthe names alone are enough to put them at the bottom of my to do list, sound like hardcore stuff IMO

You're joking, right? This is a bit?

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@ASP.8093 said:

@ASP.8093 said:What I find so confusing about this "HoT dropped difficulty out of nowhere" narrative is that stuff like Toxic Alliance or Season 2 Mordrem did kinda prepare you for HoT monsters pretty well, imo.

never touched those, and i doubt the average player even know of their existance. neither did i BTWthe names alone are enough to put them at the bottom of my to do list, sound like hardcore stuff IMO

You're joking, right? This is a bit?

nope. it would be a miracle, if i have done them, but i seriously doubt itmaybe someone can see it on my AP. it took years before i even had a lvl 80

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