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Mystic coin conspiracy


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Right now, there is a 300,000 order for mystic coins at 1.8g. It obviously has to be from the same person - I mean, who would order a mere 50 or 100 coins, on the end of a 300k fifo queue (they'd bid it up 1c). If I calculate correctly, that's at least 3 different accounts with the gold capped at 200k. I guess it could be some sort of guild team that's doing it...

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A lot of people do match the current price rather than going above it.

According to GW2 Spidy earlier today there were buy orders above that price, and before that the price for both sell and buy orders was lower. Also I've been watching the price and volume of buy orders while writing this post and the number of buy orders at 1.8g is dropping steadily, so they are selling. To me it looks like 1.8g is about the limit of what most buyers are willing to pay, at least for now. The price has previously been lower than that and has never been much higher so it's reasonable to expect it will drop again and all the buy orders at 1.8g will be met sooner or later. Why pay more than you need to, unless you really need it right now (and if you need it right now why not use the buy instantly option?)

But also lets flip the question on it's head: Why would 1 person devote all the gold it's possible to have on 3 accounts to placing buy orders on Mystic Coins at the current market rate? What does that gain them apart from a lot of Mystic Coins?

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@"Danikat.8537" said:A lot of people do match the current price rather than going above it.

According to GW2 Spidy earlier today there were buy orders above that price, and before that the price for both sell and buy orders was lower. Also I've been watching the price and volume of buy orders while writing this post and the number of buy orders at 1.8g is dropping steadily, so they are selling. To me it looks like 1.8g is about the limit of what most buyers are willing to pay, at least for now. The price has previously been lower than that and has never been much higher so it's reasonable to expect it will drop again and all the buy orders at 1.8g will be met sooner or later. Why pay more than you need to, unless you really need it right now (and if you need it right now why not use the buy instantly option?)

But also lets flip the question on it's head: Why would 1 person devote all the gold it's possible to have on 3 accounts to placing buy orders on Mystic Coins at the current market rate? What does that gain them apart from a lot of Mystic Coins?

Who says it is all their gold? And it gives them access to most of the games mystic coins, does that sound good?

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@"Danikat.8537" said:A lot of people do match the current price rather than going above it.

According to GW2 Spidy earlier today there were buy orders above that price, and before that the price for both sell and buy orders was lower. Also I've been watching the price and volume of buy orders while writing this post and the number of buy orders at 1.8g is dropping steadily, so they are selling. To me it looks like 1.8g is about the limit of what most buyers are willing to pay, at least for now. The price has previously been lower than that and has never been much higher so it's reasonable to expect it will drop again and all the buy orders at 1.8g will be met sooner or later. Why pay more than you need to, unless you really need it right now (and if you need it right now why not use the buy instantly option?)

But also lets flip the question on it's head: Why would 1 person devote all the gold it's possible to have on 3 accounts to placing buy orders on Mystic Coins at the current market rate? What does that gain them apart from a lot of Mystic Coins?

"What does that gain them apart from a lot of Mystic Coins?"

It gains them a lot of extra loot when legendary account gear goes live. There are very limited sources of mystic coins, yet a lot of uses for those mystic coins.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Coin

"The Mystic Clovers needed for first generation legendary weapons and legendary backpacks require approximately 231 Mystic Coins to craft.

Second generation weapons and legendary trinkets require approximately 481.

The Mystic Clovers needed for a set of legendary armor requires approximately 273 Mystic Coins to craft."

Edit- https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Login_rewards

"A full cycle will yield the following total rewards:

20 Mystic Coins"

And choosing one of the end chest rewards gives you...

"7 Mystic Clovers"

And Mystic Clovers are time consuming to obtain as well, that is if you don't go the Mystic Forge route which requires Mystic Coins...

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Clover

...People are banking on the fact that Anet will not add in more options to obtain Mystic Coins.

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I doubt it will have much of an impact. People who want to buy can put an order up for 1.8001 gold to get MCs before the 1.8 gold buyer. If they do want them faster, more people can do the daily Ley Line Anomaly event and get an additional 30 coins a month on top of their 20 from login bonus and the ones from Mystic Coin dailies. In general, higher prices encourage others to farm the event or sell the ones in their stash which bring the supply back up.

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@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:I doubt it will have much of an impact. People who want to buy can put an order up for 1.8001 gold to get MCs before the 1.8 gold buyer. If they do want them faster, more people can do the daily Ley Line Anomaly event and get an additional 30 coins a month on top of their 20 from login bonus and the ones from Mystic Coin dailies. In general, higher prices encourage others to farm the event or sell the ones in their stash which bring the supply back up.

Until it is a whole new ball game for mats when the legendary gear changes drop.

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@Swagger.1459 said:

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:I doubt it will have much of an impact. People who want to buy can put an order up for 1.8001 gold to get MCs before the 1.8 gold buyer. If they do want them faster, more people can do the daily Ley Line Anomaly event and get an additional 30 coins a month on top of their 20 from login bonus and the ones from Mystic Coin dailies. In general, higher prices encourage others to farm the event or sell the ones in their stash which bring the supply back up.

Until it is a whole new ball game for mats when the legendary gear changes drop.

Until...

Which is sometime in the unknown and speculative future and doesn’t really relate to the current prices and supply.

My personal opinion is that trying to control the price/supply of this item, like this person is allegedly doing, is spitting in the wind. This isn’t a real item with a finite supply but a virtual item which is manufactured out of thin air everyday and the supply on the market can fluctuate greatly from people selling their stash (of which ANet has already said there are large numbers sitting in banks) and increased numbers of people doing the Ley Line event. I do that one each day and it has hordes of people already at every time, sometimes multiple maps worth. Like any item where the supply is flexible, increased prices cause more to appear on the trading post and prices to drop.

imo, anyone who attempts to control prices on this item with a large buy order and then hoarding will find out his attempt will be a blip on the market and then nothing... as the coins continue to flow in.

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So they're buying up mystic coins at a time when they're almost the most expensive they've ever been, in the hope that they'll be even more expensive in future? It sounds like a very risky strategy to me, but I'm hardly an expect on playing the TP. But even so it's not something which requires a conspiracy of some sort, and it's not against the rules. It's just lots of people speculating on the same item at the same time.

If that is the case then I'm even more sure the price will go back down, once the people willing and able to do so have bought their stock to hoard until they can sell them on.

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@Danikat.8537 said:So they're buying up mystic coins at a time when they're almost the most expensive they've ever been, in the hope that they'll be even more expensive in future? It sounds like a very risky strategy to me, but I'm hardly an expect on playing the TP. But even so it's not something which requires a conspiracy of some sort, and it's not against the rules. It's just lots of people speculating on the same item at the same time.

If that is the case then I'm even more sure the price will go back down, once the people willing and able to do so have bought their stock to hoard until they can sell them on.Dunno, right now the order is the current supply times 10..

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@waxx.3619 said:Here I am with my 1k gold feeling rich....until you realize how much gold some players really have....

A lot of what they have isn't gold, it's items. Which is actually true for any player.

I have about 41g right now, but according to GW2 Efficiency I have just over 1,500g in 'liquid gold' - stuff I could sell, the vast majority is materials in storage. I guess for very rich players the majority will be infusions and other very expensive items, but it's still the same idea.

If you measured it that way you'd have a lot more than the gold in your wallet, it's just harder to keep track of unless you use a site like GW2 Efficiency to do it automatically.

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@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:

@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:I doubt it will have much of an impact. People who want to buy can put an order up for 1.8001 gold to get MCs before the 1.8 gold buyer. If they do want them faster, more people can do the daily Ley Line Anomaly event and get an additional 30 coins a month on top of their 20 from login bonus and the ones from Mystic Coin dailies. In general, higher prices encourage others to farm the event or sell the ones in their stash which bring the supply back up.

Until it is a whole new ball game for mats when the legendary gear changes drop.

Until...

Which is sometime in the unknown and speculative future and doesn’t really relate to the current prices and supply.

My personal opinion is that trying to control the price/supply of this item, like this person is allegedly doing, is spitting in the wind. This isn’t a real item with a finite supply but a virtual item which is manufactured out of thin air everyday and the supply on the market can fluctuate greatly from people selling their stash (of which ANet has already said there are large numbers sitting in banks) and increased numbers of people doing the Ley Line event. I do that one each day and it has hordes of people already at every time, sometimes multiple maps worth. Like any item where the supply is flexible, increased prices cause more to appear on the trading post and prices to drop.

imo, anyone who attempts to control prices on this item with a large buy order and then hoarding will find out his attempt will be a blip on the market and then nothing... as the coins continue to flow in.

Correct, until.

I, personally, do not underestimate the effect on mats given that the Legendary Armory will be the single biggest QoL gearing feature this game has had. And with limited/low acquisition rates of Mystic Coins, it's easy to see why any "high roller" wouldn't hedge their bets on Mystic Coins in preparation. And it's unlikely that the devs will add in a bunch of new ways to get Mystic Coins, so those bets are probably safer to make, especially if someone has that type of gold to play around with.

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@Danikat.8537 said:

@waxx.3619 said:Here I am with my 1k gold feeling rich....until you realize how much gold some players really have....

A lot of what they have isn't gold, it's items. Which is actually true for any player.

I have about 41g right now, but according to GW2 Efficiency I have just over 1,500g in 'liquid gold' - stuff I could sell, the vast majority is materials in storage. I guess for very rich players the majority will be infusions and other very expensive items, but it's still the same idea.

If you measured it that way you'd have a lot more than the gold in your wallet, it's just harder to keep track of unless you use a site like GW2 Efficiency to do it automatically.

True, given the gold limit in GW2 per account is 200.000 gold (aka actual gold you can hold in your wallet), it makes it a necessity to diversify into materials and items.

That has absolutely no bearing on what @waxx.3619 said that having 1,000 gold can be insignificant once you realize there are players out there with both more than 200 times that amount in actual gold AND assets worth in the millions. So no matter how you look at this, there are players to whom 1,000 gold are not even chump change.

That's without considering alt or bank accounts, which I can almost guarantee are in use by some players who have this amount of wealth. Which extends the actual amount of gold in a players possession, simply spread out over multiple accounts.

Then again, one can be perfectly happy with ones own wealth if a player manages it in a way that he enjoys the game. I would hope most players care about their personal spending and enjoyment than someone else's "wealth". So from that angle: just don't worry about it.

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@Danikat.8537 said:So they're buying up mystic coins at a time when they're almost the most expensive they've ever been, in the hope that they'll be even more expensive in future? It sounds like a very risky strategy to me, but I'm hardly an expect on playing the TP. But even so it's not something which requires a conspiracy of some sort, and it's not against the rules. It's just lots of people speculating on the same item at the same time.

That is not necessarily true. If you assume they are buying and selling on the TP then that is true but if they are buying on the TP and selling outside then it can be quite safe. For example, buy the coins at 1g80s and resell for 1g81s. The profit is only 1s per coin but with 200k coins that is still 2000g. For the buyer it would be ~5% discount versus TP sell prices. The gold being tied up in the order is also mostly irrelevant because that can be cancelled at any time.

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@aspirine.6852 said:I heard it is from these self proclaimed trade barons, want to spite the rest of the gamers. Anet should stop it and ban them all.

I would be pissed to be banned just because I ordered a lot of mystic coins. Meanwhile, harrasment, stalking, even hacking goes on, but something like trading is worth banning instead? Sounds so stupid to me.

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