Mystic Coin Inflation

[TheGrimm.5624]

@Astralporing.1957 said:

@TheGrimm.5624 said:Price went up gradually since March of this yearYou mean, since December 2015, right? because the general trend started then, Sure, there are some ups and downs on the way, some spikes and short-term reversals after them, but those are simply slight variations to the general trend, which is nothing recent. It's something that started 5 years ago.Sure, Covid might have accelerated things a little (or maybe it was the news about Legendary Armory), but we'd have gotten to that point anyway.

Notice, by the way, that while more players indeed should mean an increase in demand, it should also mean an increase in supply Especialy for MCs, that are mostly generated from login rewards. As such, it can't change a general market trend, it can only accelerate it.

There has been an upswing even before 2015 but that was after years of just being worth silver or lower. Until they added more of a demand for them they were items people just vendored. I noted the current time because there has been a slight raise this year as well, which again if we find there is no demand in EoD for them you will see a sudden inventory dump and a reduction. But since we don't have the stats, the last time they addressed it on the formers the idea was there were still more MCs entering the market daily then exiting, meaning supply side was fine. Now, that was a few years ago I want to say since time flys as it does.

[Astralporing.1957]

@Strider Pj.2193 said:Also of note, in GW 1, ectoplasm was the Mystic Coins of that game. It was currency.

And mystic coins will continue to be used as currency.

Yes, i already mentioned that. I am also quite sure that at some point in the past i've seen Anet devs saying somewhere, that they disliked the practice of secondary currencies (like ecto and armbraces) in GW1 and that they didn't want that to repeat in GW2.

@TheGrimm.5624 said:But since we don't have the stats, the last time they addressed it on the formers the idea was there were still more MCs entering the market daily then exiting, meaning supply side was fine. Now, that was a few years ago I want to say since time flys as it does.That was not what they said. They said more MCs were produced than were consumed. Not all MCs that were produced ended up on market. Not all MCs that left the market were consumed. In both case at least some of them ended up being hoarded. Basically, the demand is bigger than the supply, because not all demand is towards using MCs as crafting material. It's clear that, at least originally, they didn't count on this practice to become permanent - they thought that people would stop hoarding at some point and start selling again.

[Bristingr.5034]

@knite.1542 said:

@Strider Pj.2193 said:And 6 per week from WvW.

Lol. To address this very specific point, to get the 6 from wvw you need to finish diamond tier skirmish chest. Obviously there are people that are going to do that anyway, but I feel like your post is implying that farming for these 6 mystic coins that will take hours and hours to get (depending on a lot of factors obviously) is good gold. It definitely is not.

That's why you just hope that your server is outnumbered on the map. Those bonus +5 Pips/tick will shave HOURS off the required playtime to get to finish Diamond Tier. Combine that with a Commander of a small havoc group (10-15) and your server leading the skirmish, you can see roughly 17-20 Pips/tick.

[Strider Pj.2193]

@Astralporing.1957 said:

@Strider Pj.2193 said:Also of note, in GW 1, ectoplasm was the Mystic Coins of that game. It was currency.

And mystic coins will continue to be used as currency.

Yes, i already mentioned that. I am also quite sure that at some point in the past i've seen Anet devs saying somewhere, that they disliked the practice of secondary currencies (like ecto and armbraces) in GW1 and that they didn't want that to repeat in GW2.

I mean, I get it. But they aren’t going to be able to control that without being draconian in their measures.

Items trading hands can be tracked if they so choose.

They could ban any account that swapped items or gold outside of the trading post.

Of course that would alienate a large portion of the base including families, guild mates, etc.

Or they could just leave it alone and allow people to make their own choices and take the risks involved.

The coins have gained less in three years than the Dow Jones US stock market has in 4 years..

There is a steady supply that people are hoarding right now likely because of the armory.

And it was worth it to someone to place a buy order for 300k at a high price.

[Trevor Boyer.6524]

@TheGrimm.5624 said:

@"Trevor Boyer.6524" said:If I had to place my money why mystic coins have suddenly sky rocketed up in price,

https://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19976

The demand went up recently, but the price in terms of sell listing looks like a covid increase in people playing. Price went up gradually since March of this year when lockdowns were occurring more and has been generally level while pandemic has occurred. Now we don't have ANets numbers but industry numbers show a raise in gaming while lockdowns are in place and I would be surprised if ANets numbers weren't following suite.

So could be some of what you are referring too, but when you go back to a big spike in 2017 price is not much higher than the spike three years ago. Skyrocket I would leave to a jump of 10 fold increase vs 26% or so increase since Mar where it is was1.36 G sell list that has risen slowly for the last 8 months to 1.83 G. Which between covid and announcements of legendary armoury and the time it takes to acquire tickets for PvP and WvW legendary armor could all account for an increase in use and demand. Plus as people have mentioned a lot of us wait till our storage is full before listing new offers. And if your storage is full and your are going to sell you probably don't need to take the highest buy offer, you are going to list for a sell for something higher since you are in the better position. So until price makes it to the point that sellers are ok with selling to the buy order, the buy orders are low and need to rise to meet the expectation of price.

Again, I also played the TP baron in other games so agree there are things people can do, but normal factors also here could be applied. But noted, I am an advocate for years that MCs were undervalued and still remember when they were less than a silver and ANet had them in the BLTCs as a drop.

What I'm explaining here isn't a theory. It's something that has been going on for years. I used to participate in it all quite directly.

When I say TP whales, I am not talking about guys with 10k or 20k gold. When I say TP whales, I'm talking about guys who break a million igg.

What I'm trying to do is let you know some things without saying too much.

Watch the video and really pay attention to the inventories there, while keeping in mind what I had explained.

If you look at how many mystic coins are shown in that inventory, you can imagine how that is effecting the market. If it weren't for players doing that, the price of coins would be going down just the same as every other mat in the game right now.

[Ashen.2907]

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

@Astralporing.1957 said:

@TheGrimm.5624 said:Price went up gradually since March of

Notice, by the way, that while more players indeed should mean an increase in demand, it should also mean an increase in supply Especialy for MCs, that are mostly generated from login rewards. As such, it can't change a general market trend, it can only accelerate it.

Except that with the age of the game and people having multiple legendaries, new people want things ‘now’ (level 80 boost, skipping story right up to raptor chapter etc) that more and more people are likely not waiting for the log in rewards.

On a slightly different note, despite the base price being reset by the 300k order that was placed at 1.80 gold. People continue to place higher buy orders both because they want them now, and they can afford them.

Its been a slow and steady increase.

Also of note, in GW 1, ectoplasm was the Mystic Coins of that game. It was currency.

And mystic coins will continue to be used as currency.

Didn't ectos get largely replaced by Armbraces in GW1? Its been years since I last played but I seem to recall having converted a few hundred stacks of ectos when it looked like the bottom was falling out of the ecto.

[Strider Pj.2193]

@Ashen.2907 said:

@Strider Pj.2193 said:

@Astralporing.1957 said:

@TheGrimm.5624 said:Price went up gradually since March of

Notice, by the way, that while more players indeed should mean an increase in demand, it should also mean an increase in supply Especialy for MCs, that are mostly generated from login rewards. As such, it can't change a general market trend, it can only accelerate it.

Except that with the age of the game and people having multiple legendaries, new people want things ‘now’ (level 80 boost, skipping story right up to raptor chapter etc) that more and more people are likely not waiting for the log in rewards.

On a slightly different note, despite the base price being reset by the 300k order that was placed at 1.80 gold. People continue to place higher buy orders both because they want them now, and they can afford them.

Its been a slow and steady increase.

Also of note, in GW 1, ectoplasm was the Mystic Coins of that game. It was currency.

And mystic coins will continue to be used as currency.

Didn't ectos get largely replaced by Armbraces in GW1? Its been years since I last played but I seem to recall having converted a few hundred stacks of ectos when it looked like the bottom was falling out of the ecto.

Probably.. I haven’t played consistently in several years.

[Firebeard.1746]

I'm sure there's people trying to control the MC prices, but I've seen them fall by almost 50s only to go up 80+ later after the LA announcement. I think I've seen then drop below 1g at one point just before the LA announcement. Really it's the LA pushing all of this. That being said, it's not really hard to pick up extras, with an advanced account you'll have at least 1 character with enough ascended gear to climb the Fractal ladder quite efficiently as the higher daily reward fractal chests have a decent chance at dropping them. You can get an extra 1 per day doing ley line (which is why everyone is doing it now). If you're really crazy you can do fractal 99 and 100 CMs for an extra guaranteed 2.

Though I think legendary enthusiasm is dwindling amoung the populace as the LA hasn't seen any recent encouraging announcements, so it may crash again. We'll see.

[Astralporing.1957]

@Firebeard.1746 said:I'm sure there's people trying to control the MC prices, but I've seen them fall by almost 50s only to go up 80+ later after the LA announcement. I think I've seen then drop below 1g at one point just before the LA announcement.From what i see since the beginning of 2019 the lowest they dropped was 1g13s at buy order (somewhere around May 2019). The last time when they were below 1g was at q4 2017 (there was a massive price drop at the very end of september 2017, after which the price started to slowly recover. Don't remember what exactly happened then, though - possibly some source of MCs got introduced). The previous time they spiked to 1g90s was in June 2020, and it lasted maybe two weeks tops.

I don't remember when Armory was announced.

Notice though, that, apart from the two spikes (one in June 2020, another right now), both the supply and demand seem to be extremely stable and had been so for years.

[Tukaram.8256]

We get them free for logging in, I am glad to see the price go up. I watch the price and sell my useless coins when I see a good spike. The economy seems to be working fine.