Red Lucky Bag - [Merged]

[Khisanth.2948]

@"FrizzFreston.5290" said:Magicfind increases the rarity (colour) of your drops, not increase the rarity (preview category) of them.

Since the junk items are the lowest rarity (colour) more magic find means less junk items.

Working as intended.

This has been brought up previous years as well I believe. (Just not with this item)

That contradicts the datahttps://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/exphaa/100_000_divine_lucky_envelopes_at_969_mf/https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/ape6gh/data_108k_divine_lucky_envelopes_opened_960_mf/https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/alhgnc/25_000_divine_lucky_envelopes_data/https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/7z996o/20_000_divine_lucky_envelopes_opening_and_numbers/

very high MF but still plenty of "junk". Items from the common category like the rice balls also got eliminated.

Looking at this data did make me realize something important. The divine envelopes drop plenty of essences of luck. These bags are bought with luck. If the bags dropped the "junk" items they can potentially increase the profit from the envelopes by quite a bit.

[Ashantara.8731]

@Khisanth.2948 said:That contradicts the data

We are talking about the Lucky Red Bags here, not the Divine Envelopes. But I agree, Frizz's claim makes no sense whatsoever.

[Khisanth.2948]

@Ashantara.8731 said:

@Khisanth.2948 said:That contradicts the data

We are talking about the Lucky Red Bags here, not the Divine Envelopes. But I agree, Frizz's claim makes no sense whatsoever.

The specific container doesn't matter since it's just about the impact of MF on containers affected by MF. I don't remember if similar things have been done with other MF affected containers to go search for data on them.

Things should be consist...looks over at Post-It Notes with 'Consistent Inconsistency!!!' scribbled on it ... well never mind

[Balsa.3951]

ppl can stop defending rng its obviously bugged.Best thing anet can do is pretend its all ok and fix it next year

[Firebeard.1746]

@Ashantara.8731 said:What does Drooburt have to do with it? You're getting nothing worth mentioning in return for your legendary luck from him. It's so much less than whatever you get out of those bags.

The math on one of the videos said otherwise when I crunched it. Remember drooburt is 0.7c/1 luck. Maybe i screwed up, but being optimal is my modus operandi.

[Khisanth.2948]

@Firebeard.1746 said:

@Ashantara.8731 said:What does Drooburt have to do with it? You're getting nothing worth mentioning in return for your legendary luck from him. It's so much less than whatever you get out of those bags.

The math on one of the videos said otherwise when I crunched it. Remember drooburt is 0.7c/1 luck. Maybe i screwed up, but being optimal is my modus operandi.

Seems to be around 0.6c/luck from opening 4750 bags which makes sense if you compare to Drooburt's 0.7c/luck. Less effort but also less profit.

[Firebeard.1746]

Sure, some people will want the convenience.

[SexyMofo.8923]

In other words: working as intended.

@Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:Lol. Of course, the loot tables are 'controlled' by the Devs. Who else would set them up?

[Ashantara.8731]

@Firebeard.1746 said:

@Ashantara.8731 said:What does Drooburt have to do with it? You're getting nothing worth mentioning in return for your legendary luck from him. It's so much less than whatever you get out of those bags.

The math on one of the videos said otherwise when I crunched it. Remember drooburt is 0.7c/1 luck. Maybe i screwed up, but being optimal is my modus operandi.

I still don't get what you are talking about, sorry. I gave Drooburt a few thousand Luck (because there is nothing else for me to do with Legendary Essences of Luck) and ended up with about 4 silver total.

So please explain what you mean and what I seem to be missing here. Do you mean compared to what you get for 1,000 Luck out of the Lucky Red Bags?

@Eloc Freidon.5692 said:Maybe next year it will get fixed, unless they forget to do it in time for next year, so maybe the year after that.

That would be too late. I doubt I can acquire another 20+ stacks of Exotic Essences of Luck within a year...

[Pacificterror.7805]

Classic Gambler's Fallacy (aka Monte Carlo Fallacy).

You need to look at each bag opening as an individual act, rather than thinking that your chance of getting something great increases the more bags you open. This is because you opening your first bag and any subsequent bags are completely separate acts of chance that have no bearing over the outcome of the others.

In regards to obtaining so many Rare backpacks as opposed to Exotic, being in the same table does not mean they are weighted the same. For every 1 Exotic bag entry to the table, there could easily be 10+ Rare entries.

[lummuss.6850]

If the exotic backpack is on the same tab as the rare backpack, then I believe they should have the same chance of dropping. It makes no sense! Since the exotic backpack is so hard to buy, why not create a new "super rare" flap and put it there?It is disappointing to keep collecting absurd amounts of luck during the year and then get bored opening so many bags and drop absurd amounts of garbage (which has exactly no value). It seems like a bad joke!

[Khisanth.2948]

@Ashantara.8731 said:

@Eloc Freidon.5692 said:Maybe next year it will get fixed, unless they forget to do it in time for next year, so maybe the year after that.

That would be

too late

. I doubt I can acquire another 20+ stacks of Exotic Essences of Luck within a year...

20 is pretty easy if you salvage most of your green and blues. That is what I do and I had 20 stacks collected. That is without doing any sort of farming.Unless you have also cut down the amount of GW2 you play by a significant amount like I have ...

@lummuss.6850 said:It is disappointing to keep collecting absurd amounts of luck during the year and then get bored opening so many bags and drop absurd amounts of garbage (which has exactly no value). It seems like a bad joke!

I got back around 60g for 20 stacks of exotic EoL, 57g if the rare back items are excluded. Not a whole lot considering the space that took up but also not nothing.

[Ashantara.8731]

@Khisanth.2948 said:20 is pretty easy if you salvage most of your green and blues. That is what I do and I had 20 stacks collected.

I don't recall how long it took me to collect those 20+ stacks, to be honest. I had max'd out my Luck two years ago and was salvaging and collecting ever since.

[Khisanth.2948]

@Ashantara.8731 said:

@Khisanth.2948 said:20 is pretty easy if you salvage most of your green and blues. That is what I do and I had 20 stacks collected.

I don't recall how long it took me to collect those 20+ stacks, to be honest. I had max'd out my Luck two years ago and was salvaging and collecting ever since.

You could also just salvage ectos but that would require some math or spreadsheet to determine if it is worth doing.

Speaking of which. If these bags had decent returns on those higher value items then all that will accomplish is spike the prices of ectos until it reaches equilibrium ...

[Ashantara.8731]

@Khisanth.2948 said:

@Ashantara.8731 said:

@Khisanth.2948 said:20 is pretty easy if you salvage most of your green and blues. That is what I do and I had 20 stacks collected.

I don't recall how long it took me to collect those 20+ stacks, to be honest. I had max'd out my Luck two years ago and was salvaging and collecting ever since.

You could also just salvage ectos but that would require some math or spreadsheet to determine if it is worth doing.

Err... I believe I make more gold from selling ecto than trading in luck. :o

[Linken.6345]

@Ashantara.8731 said:

@Khisanth.2948 said:

@Ashantara.8731 said:

@Khisanth.2948 said:20 is pretty easy if you salvage most of your green and blues. That is what I do and I had 20 stacks collected.

I don't recall how long it took me to collect those 20+ stacks, to be honest. I had max'd out my Luck two years ago and was salvaging and collecting ever since.

You could also just salvage ectos but that would require some math or spreadsheet to determine if it is worth doing.

Err... I believe I make more gold from selling ecto than trading in luck. :o

Sure about that if you take in the coin you get from selling the dust?

[Orack.9756]

@"Firebeard.1746" said:Still though, this guy (who I believe is different than the others), with max magic find, opening 6k+ didn't get a SINGLE 8g ornament. That's broken.

It's more about them advertising a drop and it not showing up at all with max MF on massive quantities and the few times we actually see it is on lower MF.

I open 8 blue lucky bag and get 1 mini-pet, I've sell it 77g in TP.Luck / Random is like this. Got the same thing at wintersday even, open 77 gift and got the infusion, selled for 330g~Don't expect something when you play with luck and you'll never be disapointed.

[Firebeard.1746]

@Orack.9756 said:

@"Firebeard.1746" said:Still though, this guy (who I believe is different than the others), with max magic find, opening 6k+ didn't get a SINGLE 8g ornament. That's broken.

It's more about them advertising a drop and it not showing up at all with max MF on massive quantities and the few times we actually see it is on lower MF.

I open 8 blue lucky bag and get 1 mini-pet, I've sell it 77g in TP.Luck / Random is like this. Got the same thing at wintersday even, open 77 gift and got the infusion, selled for 330g~Don't expect something when you play with luck and you'll never be disapointed.

I'm pretty sure the numbers on this are busted. That thing should not be rarer than an infusion and I feel like even people gambling for infusions have better luck. i'm going to start converting via the drooburt path after another very disappointing result with all MF minus SW buffs. which I think is dumb. I really wouldn't care if this thing was rarer than an infusion if they made the base raw gold at least equal to the drooburt path. because then I'd know I wasn't actually losing anything

[Astralporing.1957]

@"lummuss.6850" said:If the exotic backpack is on the same tab as the rare backpack, then I believe they should have the same chance of dropping. It makes no sense!Why? You do realize, that, for example, precursors are on the same drop table as other exotic weapons? Not everything on the same drop table has the same drop chance. It's nothing new - it has always been that way.

Since the exotic backpack is so hard to buy, why not create a new "super rare" flap and put it there?You do know that you can simply upgrade the rare backpack to exotic version? There's a mystic forge recipe for that.