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Mystic Coin Scarcity Problem - [Merged]


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@Cuks.8241 said:

@Cuks.8241 said:I think this is actually the purpose of MCs, to keep legendaries rare and their price stable.No. The current situation of MCs is purely due to the belief of a certain previous GW2 economy guy, who thought that the bubble is going to burst as soon as people's bank mats tabs will get filled with MCs and they'd start selling. That decision was made when MCs were at 50s. Years later that person no longer works for Anet, but the people are still hoarding, and the price is still increasing.

Care to elaborate on that because I dont see the connection of your post to the purpose of a material like mystic coin with limited aquisition methods.I mean that originally the balance between acquisition methods and demand was completely different and had nothing to do with "keeping legendaries rare and their prices stable". Nor, btw, were they limited to legendaries, as legendaries used them only for clovers, but there were other cosmetic recipes that used MCs directly.

The spike in price resulted from two independent changes - one was change to dailies (and the removal of monthlies), and it limited acquisition a bit. Second was much more impactful, and it was a result of adding gen2 legendary weapons with their recipes requiring a stack of MCs. Notice, that the prices Anet then set for legendaries were based on the market prices and supply of mats at that time. And MCs were then extremely cheap.

Not only introducing both of those changes one after another changed the supply to demand ratio, but releasing gen2 legendaries created huge temporary demand spikes. This demand spike massively unbalanced the market, causing the value of MCs to go up madly.

This was when the then-local economist made a statement, that he is not going to intervene, because there's no need to - the bubble is going to burst on its own anyway very soon as soon as the initial demand spike goes down and the peoplewake up to the situation and will start selling the MCs they have in their banks.

Unfortunately, that economist missed two things. First was that Anet started releasing new legendaries on regular schedule (first Chumpa, then the rest of gen 2.5 ones, episode after episode) which caused the demand spikes to reappear over and over again. Second, that noone sane is going to sell a material whse price is still going up unless they need gold badly right now. And that other people noticing that price going up decided, that its something good to invest in. And Anet's promise of not getting involved directly fed those hoarding tendencies.

Which, in turn, changed MCs into Tyria's equivalent of gold bars.

None of which had anything to do with your supposed purpose of MCs.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:None of which had anything to do with your supposed purpose of MCs.

Thanks, didn't know most of that.This explains the market behaviour history and could back up the case that the price is not what was intended. Maybe over time Anet still decided that the market situation is OK even though it wasn't as they predicted or they balanced by other means. Let's be honest GW2 has one of the most balanced markets of all of mmorpgs. This is one thing Anet does very well even if they don't predict everything.

All of this has nothing with the purpose of the material such as MCs which is somewhat specific for legendaries and a few other items. The influx of MCs into the game is limited. Well at least more limited than most materials. It is to some extent time-gated but it is not hard to acquire to a certain extent.Many people in this thread, including me, craft legendaries at a slow pace and as such have no issues with MCs. With my tempo, I will never buy MCs and they actually align quite nicely with the acquisition of other materials. And I don't do any activity I don't enjoy just to get MCs. And I still think the purpose is to limit the number of legendaries that can be produced over time. Maybe I'm completely wrong on this but I don't see any other reason right now why introduce this specific material. And as it stands right now they are the balance in the price of legendaries due to their nature of a time-gated material vs farmable materials.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:

@Cuks.8241 said:I think this is actually the purpose of MCs, to keep legendaries rare and their price stable.No. The current situation of MCs is purely due to the belief of a certain previous GW2 economy guy, who thought that the bubble is going to burst as soon as people's bank mats tabs will get filled with MCs and they'd start selling. That decision was made when MCs were at 50s. Years later that person no longer works for Anet, but the people are still hoarding, and the price is still increasing.

Care to elaborate on that because I dont see the connection of your post to the purpose of a material like mystic coin with limited aquisition methods.I mean that originally the balance between acquisition methods and demand was completely different and had nothing to do with "keeping legendaries rare and their prices stable". Nor, btw, were they limited to legendaries, as legendaries used them only for clovers, but there were other cosmetic recipes that used MCs directly.

The spike in price resulted from two independent changes - one was change to dailies (and the removal of monthlies), and it limited acquisition a bit. Second was much more impactful, and it was a result of adding gen2 legendary weapons with their recipes requiring a stack of MCs. Notice, that the prices Anet then set for legendaries were based on the market prices and supply of mats
at that time
. And MCs were then extremely cheap.

Not only introducing both of those changes one after another changed the supply to demand ratio, but releasing gen2 legendaries created huge temporary demand spikes. This demand spike massively unbalanced the market, causing the value of MCs to go up madly.

This was when the then-local economist made a statement, that he is not going to intervene, because there's no need to - the bubble is going to burst on its own anyway very soon as soon as the initial demand spike goes down and the peoplewake up to the situation and will start selling the MCs they have in their banks.

Unfortunately, that economist missed two things. First was that Anet started releasing new legendaries on regular schedule (first Chumpa, then the rest of gen 2.5 ones, episode after episode) which caused the demand spikes to reappear over and over again. Second, that noone sane is going to sell a material
whse price is still going up
unless they need gold badly right now. And that other people noticing that price going up decided, that its something good to invest in. And Anet's promise of not getting involved
directly fed
those hoarding tendencies.

Which, in turn, changed MCs into Tyria's equivalent of gold bars.

None of which had anything to do with your supposed purpose of MCs.

Tier 2 legendary items released and cost around 2,400 gold. Mostly due to way higher pricing of Amalgamated gemstones and remaining materials being far more expensive (like Deldrimore Ingots).

Please don't make things up.

The rest is fine, but this claim that gen2 were cheaper at time of their release or that the intended price was cheaper is plain untrue.

I've crafted multiple T2 and T2.5, around half of them, over the years and the price did NOT increase. On the contrary. So even IF a specific target price/cost was the goal, that had remained stable. On the contrary the release of later gen2.5 weapons just reinforced the cost/price target given they had completely made up crafting requirements.

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@Frozenize.9603 said:

@Cuks.8241 said:You're assuming mystic coins are the only source of clovers. I don't think it has ever been cheaper to craft or buy a legendary.

If you are a PVE-Only player then yes Mystic Coin is the only source of Mystic Clover. For WvW Drizzlewood coast reward track is unrepeatable, for other reward tracks its about 2-4 Clovers per final box and I think it might be the same for PVP. Even if I dedicate all my gaming time (16 hours per day) to just doing WvW at most I can get 2-3 Final Box which is about 12 Clovers per day.

This is simply not true. You can buy magic warped bundles with unbound magic that can drop clovers.

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@Cyninja.2954 said:Tier 2 legendary items released and cost around 2,400 gold. Mostly due to way higher pricing of Amalgamated gemstones and remaining materials being far more expensive (like Deldrimore Ingots).

Please don't make things up.

The rest is fine, but this claim that gen2 were cheaper at time of their release or that the intended price was cheaper is plain untrue.I did not make any such claims. You are reading something in what i said that i didn't put there.

I said, that the target price, and materials used for gen2 legendaries, were based on market situation at that time. And, at that time, MCs were not considered to be either costly or hard to obtain yet. (again, MCs, not gen2 legendaries as a whole)And that the JS response to MCs prices increase has shown that this increase wasn't something that Anet planned. They might have decided to allow that and not intervene in the situation, but it was not part of their original intention.

And that, sure, the price might have remained relatively stable due to MCs price increase balancing loss of value of other mats, but it also seems to be purely accidental, and not part of a greater, original plan. Unless Anet intentionally introduced more sources for amalgamates and fine mats specifically in order to counterbalance the growing price of MCs - which, would be a very roundabout way to address the problem (especially considering the fact that doing it that way would impact far more than just the prices of legendaries). As such, i consider this possibility to be quite unlikely.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:

@"Cyninja.2954" said:Tier 2 legendary items released and cost around 2,400 gold. Mostly due to way higher pricing of Amalgamated gemstones and remaining materials being far more expensive (like Deldrimore Ingots).

Please don't make things up.

The rest is fine, but this claim that gen2 were cheaper at time of their release or that the intended price was cheaper is plain untrue.I did
not
make any such claims. You are reading something in what i said that i didn't put there.

I said, that the target price, and materials used for gen2 legendaries,
were based on market situation at that time
. And, at that time, MCs were not considered to be either costly or hard to obtain
yet
. (again,
MCs
, not gen2 legendaries as a whole)And that the JS response to MCs prices increase has shown that this increase wasn't something that Anet planned. They might have decided to allow that and not intervene in the situation, but it was
not
part of their original intention.

Or, as long as the UNCHANGED target price remains where they originally designed it to be, they see no reason to adjust individual materials prices.

Yes, their intention for certain items/materials will have been different and in fact is different. That's why we see recipes introduced with LARGE sinks for specific materials while in some cases, recipes are made cheaper or new types of acquisition were introduced.

So while yes, they individual development of the Mystic Coin price might not have been expected, neither were specific other prices. Some of which have seen adjustment to healthier levels (healthy not always meaning cheaper).

All I'm saying is that the cost and price argument from a legendary perspective is NOT viable. Not while crafting legendary gear is the cheapest it has ever been.

Now does this apply to other items which also require Mystic Coins or guild upgrades? I'd say no. So that would in fact be an argument which could be made. Which I find interesting since it is almost never brought up but everyone focuses on legendary items only while the actual "collateral damage" done to other areas is being ignored (which imo just show how little the cost of MC is the issue to most but rather the expectation that legendary items should be even cheaper). Then again we have had expensive and fluctuating skins in the past, and the tolerance we as players have seen from a developer intervention point of view has always been huge.

@Astralporing.1957 said:And that, sure, the price might have remained relatively stable due to MCs price increase balancing loss of value of other mats, but it also seems to be purely accidental, and not part of a greater, original plan. Unless Anet intentionally introduced more sources for amalgamates and fine mats specifically in order to counterbalance the growing price of MCs - which, would be a very roundabout way to address the problem (especially considering the fact that doing it that way would impact far more than just the prices of legendaries). As such, i consider this possibility to be quite unlikely.

Or, it works the other way. If we assume legendary items have a price point at which players are willing to purchase them, all materials going into them adjust around said price.

It is not that other materials were made cheaper to compensate for the Mystic Coin price. That is stupid. It is that the Mystic Coin prices has adapted to other prices dropping, which is far more likely if we assume an accepted price point.

While the developer sees no reason to intervene as long as everything in-between remains within the acceptable parameters.

It's not that you strait up said the developers wanted lower Mystic Coin prices. It's that you insinuated that the developments over the last few years have been undesired by the developers based on a one sided perspective. If at all, I'd argue the low amount of interference with the market suggests the exact opposite position from a developer stand point.

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If you say that the recipe was created with the old prices in mind (which were lower for coins) you have to also see: That recipes might have started a part (besides people using coins for off TP trading) of increase of the coin price. More uses = higher demand.

Could be countered by changing the recipe. Could also be countered making a bigger coin supply. But in the end it always will be compared to other farming methos. Price might increase until it gets sooo expensive that - considerin the methods of acquisition stay the same - it will be more attractive for other players to get coins and sell them. (= more people doing lay line for example).

Would be funny though if ArenaNet suddenly made something like making mystic coins accound bound once you send them through mail. Some people would cry. :D (And they still could be sold that way. If only sending them once through mail made them bound. :D)

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@"Cyninja.2954" said:Or, as long as the UNCHANGED target price remains where they originally designed it to be, they see no reason to adjust individual materials prices.Maybe. This has nothing to do with what my post you responded to was all about however.

In that post i was solely talking about what their intention for MCs was (and, more importantly was not), and that their increase in price was also not part of any plan. Which was a response to a poster that thought it was all planned and intended.

It is not that other materials were made cheaper to compensate for the Mystic Coin price. That is stupid. It is that the Mystic Coin prices has adapted to other prices dropping, which is far more likely if we assume an accepted price point.That is equally unlikely, seeing as MCs have started "adapting" long before the value of those other materials changed. The price of gen2 legendaries seem stable now, but was fluctuating before. Nevermore cost, for example, at some point reached somewhere around 2800 gold, from what i remember. And at that time, MC price was still continuing to "adapt up". It took a plunge of value of other mats to bring the overall price of legendaries down again.

As i see it, we're talking about a series of completely independent changes that, at this specific moment in time, might on the surface seem to be connected somehow (but actually aren't).

It's not that you strait up said the developers wanted lower Mystic Coin prices. It's that you insinuated that the developments over the last few years have been undesired by the developers based on a one sided perspective. If at all, I'd argue the low amount of interference with the market suggests the exact opposite position from a developer stand point.The original statement was that they felt no need to interfere, because they thought the price will go back to old levels again on its own. In fact, when they realized it's not gonna happen, they did make some adjustments, adding few new sources of both MCs and clovers. It's just that by the time they did that, MCs have already overgrown their old role of being only a crafting material for selection of vanity gear, and became considered to be a wealth investment (and one of alternate currencies). Something i quite intentionally called the Tyria's equivalent of gold bars.

As long as MCs are being considered a safe investment, and a stable currency you just can't really lose on investing in, their price will keep increasing, and small adjustments Anet was willing to make (and potentially might be willing to make in the future) are not going to change that.

Basically, my point is that the current MC situation is not a result of some greater plan or grand design. It's just something that was caused by a miscalculation in the design, and gained a life on its own since then.

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Those that feel or have intimated that MCs were designed by Anet to gradually go down in price, please explain them why Anet hasn’t increased the available ways to obtain?

Anet could easily lower the price on MCs.

Increase the drop rate, increase ways to obtain, etc.

To anyone who feels that Anet isn’t aware of the MC price increase, please don’t be naive. They know.

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@Strider Pj.2193 said:Those that feel or have intimated that MCs were designed by Anet to gradually go down in price,we already have unlimited source of MC- is is dayli login

please explain them why Anet hasn’t increased the available ways to obtain?we already have a lot of MC on hand. I have a lot of stacks. Many people have more and more than me.

Anet could easily lower the price on MCs.it is already very low. price

Increase the drop rate, increase ways to obtain, etc.what the point increase drop if it easy buy on TP? it is not acc bound. Need ? Buy it.

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@Strider Pj.2193 said:Those that feel or have intimated that MCs were designed by Anet to gradually go down in price, please explain them why Anet hasn’t increased the available ways to obtain?They did. Several new sources for both MCs and clovers were introduced since MC price started rising all that time ago. And they weren't introduced at once - those were multiple additions over the years.

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I think you guys and ladies miss something the changes to dallies and the gen2 legendaries happened a long time ago.When you look closer in is not only mystic coins , elder wood and mithril also jumped temporally .Yes this mean that most of was used for legendaries.

But the reason is people want to 'finish' their game I myself build the last 4 month 4 legendaries. The people in my quasi fractal static done the same perhaps they build even more then me.

There are 2 reasons for this :1.) The incoming end of the lockdown a lot of people have more time during it with the end of it they don't have time for endcontent or playing gw 2 entirely.2.)This game shows too many signs of being at the end of its life time it kinda hard to oversee it. I can only give a short overview:

Balancing.)We are in a high sustain meta for over 2 years in all game modes. Everyone who wants to play high risk high rewards type of gameplay will be pushed out of the game sooner or later. Also the balancing is kinda stale.

sPvP) The Feb patch last year was a nightmare the few sPvP streamer the game had all quit , (real)healer were patched out of the game, a lot of more people quit because everyone now plays bunker builds because no healer

WvW) The game mode is very stale but if you looking for a siege war kinda game play you looking for the wrong game now. It still there in theory but nerfed everything related to it basically it is death so at least half of the players moved on from the game mode or game . The people who are still in it doing mass PvP or Guild vs Guild and some roamers . The problem is also mass pvp is much better in other games.

PvE) CONTENT WHERE ARE YOU?? xD well there is but who wants to grind DRMs ? Actually the situation of some content is complicated and seems to miss the main audience.

Bugs ) There are too many bugs inside the game and some are game breaking and not patched after a year. This is usually what you see in an f2p MMO hust

The main problem is that the game evolved away from its original formula for the classes and content design and then left basically people behind . This isn't something entirely new I saw this in a lot of MMOs main reason for this is playerS pressure for a change that the developers change XY posting like wild on the board at some point the developers give in to compromise even if it contradicts the design philosophy and idea this repeats a few times and at some point the original developer isn't in charge of it any more .The next developer picks it up and continue where the last developer changed the system and continue in this direction until the house is on fire.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:

@Cyninja.2954 said:Or, as long as the UNCHANGED target price remains where they originally designed it to be, they see no reason to adjust individual materials prices.Maybe. This has nothing to do with what my post you responded to was all about however.

In that post i was
solely
talking about what their intention for MCs was (and, more importantly was
not
), and that their increase in price was also not part of any plan. Which was a response to a poster that thought it was all planned and intended.

It is not that other materials were made cheaper to compensate for the Mystic Coin price. That is stupid. It is that the Mystic Coin prices has adapted to other prices dropping, which is far more likely if we assume an accepted price point.That is equally unlikely, seeing as MCs have started "adapting" long
before
the value of those other materials changed. The price of gen2 legendaries seem stable now, but was fluctuating before. Nevermore cost, for example, at some point reached somewhere around 2800 gold, from what i remember.

True, but back then the cost increase was not due to Mystic Coins.

@Astralporing.1957 said:As i see it, we're talking about a series of completely independent changes that, at this specific moment in time, might on the surface seem to be connected somehow (but actually aren't).

and I am saying there are relationships between these developments and this is not pure Luck.

It is not Luck that legendary items have remained stable in cost/price with a fluctuation of maybe 20%. What you claim to be a singular moment in time has remained true for the vast majority of the game.

It is not Luck that this games economy has remained stable without massive inflation in all areas.

@Astralporing.1957 said:

@Cyninja.2954 said:It's not that you strait up said the developers wanted lower Mystic Coin prices. It's that you insinuated that the developments over the last few years have been undesired by the developers based on a one sided perspective. If at all, I'd argue the low amount of interference with the market suggests the exact opposite position from a developer stand point.The original statement was that they felt no need to interfere,
because they thought the price will go back to old levels again on its own
. In fact, when they realized it's not gonna happen, they did make some adjustments, adding few new sources of both MCs and clovers. It's just that by the time they did that, MCs have already overgrown their old role of being only a crafting material for selection of vanity gear, and became considered to be a wealth investment (and one of alternate currencies). Something i quite intentionally called the Tyria's equivalent of gold bars.

The original peice would have been 2s. Which original price are we talking about? As far as I remember the claim was that a bubbel in the Mystic Coin price woild not be sustainable. We have not seen any long- or ecmven midterm bubbel so far.

@Astralporing.1957 said:As long as MCs are being considered a safe investment, and a stable currency you just can't really lose on investing in, their price will keep increasing, and small adjustments Anet was willing to make (and potentially might be willing to make in the future) are not going to change that.

Really, what about the players who bought MC near 3 gold in the recent price spike? You are assuming an endless growth for Mystic Coins, which is highly unlikely. That is not the same as there being room for further increase in value.

@Astralporing.1957 said:Basically, my point is that the current MC situation is not a result of some greater plan or grand design. It's just something that was caused by a miscalculation in the design, and gained a life on its own since then.

Maybe, but as long as it does not go against the grand design, even a miscalculation can work the the developers favor. Again, we have seen Arenanet step in when they felt it is necessary, most recently with Prismaticite.

So far there has been absolutely 0 indication that this "miscalculation" is not intended by the developers. If they do have a certain cost in mind for legendary gear, it is far easier to manipulate 1 material once it reaches undesired levels than adjust multiple materials. So if the devlopers wanted to adjust the legendary item cost for example, they would have intervened by now.

My guess is, as long as their metrics show that enough MC are entering the game, are entering the market and are consumed and used, they will see 0 need to make adjustments. That's where we are at right now and have been for the majority of this games lifecycle.

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@Cyninja.2954 said:True, but back then the cost increase was not due to Mystic Coins.True, not primarily to MCs anyway (they did contribute, but not as much as other factors - in Nevermore's case it was mainly the price of elderwood spiking, if i remember right). The point is, that there was a moment in the past where the cost of all of the other mats was going up, and yet, MCs still continued to increase in price. In fact, MCs value kept rising regardless of what happened to legendary price or cost of other mats. Which suggests it was not conected to those in any way.

@"Astralporing.1957" said:As i see it, we're talking about a series of completely independent changes that, at this specific moment in time, might on the surface seem to be connected somehow (but actually aren't).and I am saying there are relationships between these developments and this is not pure Luck.See above.

At this point in time it may seem there is a relationship, but there were points in the past where it was clear that relationship does not, in fact, exist.

It is not Luck that this games economy has remained stable without massive inflation in all areas.That i agree with. MCs are practically the only exception out there that is on constant increase. But exception they are.

The original peice would have been 2s. Which original price are we talking about? As far as I remember the claim was that a bubbel in the Mystic Coin price woild not be sustainable. We have not seen any long- or ecmven midterm bubbel so far.The claim then was that the price at 50s and rising was the bubble. One that is eventually going to burst and bring the price down to below that. And yes, from what we've seen since then, there was indeed no bubble at all. And that is why it will never "burst" on its own, and will continue rising (barring any more serious intervention by Anet).

Really, what about the players who bought MC near 3 gold in the recent price spike? You are assuming an endless growth for Mystic Coins, which is highly unlikely. That is not the same as there being room for further increase in value.It's a currency now. In a virtual economy. Of course it can keep increasing in value, as long as nothing will happen that will directly challenge that value's stability. Sure, perhaps there's a theoretical limit to its growth, but it's probably high enough that we'll never actually see it. And th fact that MCs value increase seems to be slowly accelerating (instead of slowing down) suggests we're still very, very far from reaching it.(remember, in a year we went from a spike to 2g value, to a spike to 3g and a stable "low" level at ~2.3g)

My guess is, as long as their metrics show that enough MC are entering the game, are entering the market and are consumed and used, they will see 0 need to make adjustments. That's where we are at right now and have been for the majority of this games lifecycle.The metrics do show that. They were showing that from the beginning. And thy were originally carefully calculated. It's just that (as the few original statements by JS revealed), they ignored one factor then (and seem to be ignoring it even now) - specifically, they never expected people will hoard MCs. They fully expected all MCs entering the game to be either used up for crafting, or sold (and used up by the buyer for crafting). And, yet, as it turned out, players decided to just keep to a large part of them, which severely unbalanced the calculation.

All of this happened even though it was quite easy to predict. Some of us kept telling JS then that this pattern will continue to hold, but he was absolutely certain that the people hoarding MCs will start selling "anytime now", which will burst the "bubble". And by the time he realized that it's just not going to happen, it was too late to easily do something about it without triggering some other, unexpected and potentially undesirable consequences.

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Here's an easy solution for ya: just delete mystic coins from the game.

No, seriously.

Replace them with mystic curios everywhere. Boom, problem solved, and you also made common crafting materials not-worthless. Add more recipes for mystic curios as needed.

Problem solved, next.

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@rune.9572 said:Here's an easy solution for ya: just delete mystic coins from the game.

No, seriously.

Replace them with mystic curios everywhere. Boom, problem solved, and you also made common crafting materials not-worthless. Add more recipes for mystic curios as needed.

Problem solved, next.

This assumes that a problem exists in the first place, which many of us (I believe) do not find it to be so.

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@rune.9572 said:

@kharmin.7683 said:This assumes that a problem exists in the first place, which many of us (I believe) do not find it to be so.

The beauty of my solution is that it doesn't care if there is a problem or not. It just works regardless :)

Perhaps, but the point I was trying to make is that no solution is warranted because no problem exists.

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The Automated PvP Tournament helps. Even if you don't get the Mystic Coin (Top 8 needed), the Top 16 still gives 5 Gold, so you can snatch a Coin or two from the TP with that. There's so few teams anymore that do it, it's an automatic 5 gold (never more than 12 teams at most; sometimes less than 8).

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