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Mystic Coin Scarcity Problem - [Merged]


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@Infusion.7149 said:

@"firedragon.8953" said:Honestly, I don't see a problem.

However, let's have some fun here.They should add the ability to purchase mystic coins with a big sack of dungeon token currency. 400 dungeon tokens for most dungeons and 300 dungeon tokens for level 80 dungeons. They should make a little "skritt black market trader" that moves around core Tyria like Historian Elisa moves around Elona and will trade golden shinnies for dungeon shinnies, yes?!. However, cap out the daily maximum purchase of coins from the skritt at 5 coins a day. Make dungeons great again! hahaPVE doesn't need more incentives. If anything that should be a weekly WVW vendor for legendary spikes and emblems , or bimonthly (right before relink).

I suggested that in a stand alone thread and the WvW community shat all over it.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:No. The current situation of MCs is purely due to the belief of a certain previous GW2 economy guy, who thought that the bubble is going to burst as soon as people's bank mats tabs will get filled with MCs and they'd start selling. That decision was made when MCs were at 50s. Years later that person no longer works for Anet, but the people are still hoarding, and the price is still increasing.

He is not wrong. At least for me. That is exactly what I would do with overflow coins. Unfortunately it is going to take 3-6 years to fill the storage assuming I stop using any coins in that time period.

Edit: There is also another important thing people seem to be ignoring. MC as an alternate currency to get around the gold limit on mail and price limit on TP. A 20k trade using 3g as the value per coin would take over 6k coins or 26 stacks. Compare that to the 32k of coins being sold on the TP right now that is a lot for a trade or two. It would only take a small number of people thinking(so they are storing a large amount but not large enough to actually pay for the trade) about doing such trades to gobble up the equivalent of all that is currently on the TP. Until those trades are completed they coins are taken out of circulation and they may stay out of circulation afterwards if the seller keeps them for future purchases.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:

@Cyninja.2954 said:True, but back then the cost increase was not due to Mystic Coins.True, not primarily to MCs anyway (they did contribute, but not as much as other factors - in Nevermore's case it was mainly the price of elderwood spiking, if i remember right). The point is, that there was a moment in the past where the cost of
all
of the other mats was going up, and yet, MCs still continued to increase in price. In fact, MCs value kept rising
regardless
of what happened to legendary price or cost of other mats. Which suggests it was not conected to those in any way.

@Astralporing.1957 said:As i see it, we're talking about a series of completely independent changes that, at this specific moment in time, might on the surface seem to be connected somehow (but actually aren't).and I am saying there are relationships between these developments and this is not pure Luck.See above.

At this point in time it may seem there is a relationship, but there were points in the past where it was clear that relationship does not, in fact, exist.

It is not Luck that this games economy has remained stable without massive inflation in all areas.That i agree with. MCs are practically the
only
exception out there that is on constant increase. But exception they
are
.

The original peice would have been 2s. Which original price are we talking about? As far as I remember the claim was that a bubbel in the Mystic Coin price woild not be sustainable. We have not seen any long- or ecmven midterm bubbel so far.The claim then was that the price at 50s and rising
was
the bubble. One that is eventually going to burst and bring the price down to below that. And yes, from what we've seen since then, there was indeed no bubble at all. And that is why it will never "burst" on its own, and will continue rising (barring any more serious intervention by Anet).

Let me give you a quote:

“640K ought to be enough for anyone” — Bill Gates (you can read up on the history and meaning of the quote her: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/09/08/640k-enough/ )

That statement was applicable and valid for its time (1985) and while no one would make a similar statement in this form today, a parallel could be drawn by stating: no personal computer needs more than 64gb worth of ram (or which ever amount you currently would feel comfortable with). This would be just as true for the current time, and ages just as incorrectly if quoted 10 years down the road.

The mistake back then was that there was an assumption of 50s being a bubble. It obviously wasn't and it did not bring the price back down. By now this "mistake" will have been discovered, but it seems obvious that it was not a mistake in the market but rather in the assumption which might have resulted in a rather a lucky accident which allowed easy price manipulation of high end items and storage of wealth outside of the gold cap.

That is WITHOUT factoring for increased demand from a veteran player base where far more players are crafting and requiring Mystic Coins and far more legendary items for unique slots requiring Mystic Coins. Those 50s back then, when adjusted for inflation and higher demand, could very well be 2g and even far higher currently.

@Astralporing.1957 said:

@Cyninja.2954 said:Really, what about the players who bought MC near 3 gold in the recent price spike? You are assuming an endless growth for Mystic Coins, which is highly unlikely. That is not the same as there being room for further increase in value.It's a currency now. In a virtual economy. Of course it can keep increasing in value, as long as nothing will happen that will directly challenge that value's stability. Sure, perhaps there's a theoretical limit to its growth, but it's probably high enough that we'll never actually see it. And th fact that MCs value increase seems to be slowly accelerating (instead of slowing down) suggests we're still very, very far from reaching it.(remember, in a year we went from a spike to 2g value, to a spike to 3g and a stable "low" level at ~2.3g)

We are stable at 2.1g now. You are mixing buy order and sell order values. The "spike" to 2g was a spike to 2g/2.1g which has increased to 2.1/2.3g currently. Hardly a groundbreaking increase but rather a reaction to the further decline of other materials. Remember, Amalgamated Gemstones nearly halved in value, T6 materials dropped even more too.

There is obviously also a slow probing for how high the price can be pushed. Market failure does not set in at where some player feel uncomfortable at though.

@Astralporing.1957 said:

@Cyninja.2954 said:My guess is, as long as their metrics show that enough MC are entering the game, are entering the market and are consumed and used, they will see 0 need to make adjustments. That's where we are at right now and have been for the majority of this games lifecycle.The metrics do show that. They were showing that from the beginning. And thy were originally carefully calculated. It's just that (as the few original statements by JS revealed), they ignored one factor then (and seem to be ignoring it even now) - specifically, they never expected people will
hoard
MCs. They fully expected all MCs entering the game to be either used up for crafting, or sold (and used up by the buyer for crafting). And, yet, as it turned out, players decided to just keep to a large part of them, which severely unbalanced the calculation.

All of this happened even though it was quite easy to predict. Some of us kept telling JS then that this pattern will continue to hold, but he was absolutely certain that the people hoarding MCs will start selling "anytime now", which will burst the "bubble".

Let me rephrase what you just said: Players have been complaining about the Mystic Coin price the moment it increased beyond 2s (and the majority started to appear around a 50s value). It was never true in the past. It is not true now. It possibly might become true in the future.

You are correct though, eventually Mystic Coin could increase in value far enough to be an issue. If we take 2,800 gold as a baseline for crafting Nevermore (currently 2,184g), that would mean a Mystic Coin price of current+1.27g = 3.47g/3.67g at similar remaining materials cost. That's still a way off. Once we get there and IF this price is deemed to high, I'm sure the developers will react. Which will then lead to a wave of "I told you so" statements from players who have been waiting for over 6 years for that moment. Which says about everything one needs to know about the value of these predictions.

As far as

And by the time he realized that it's just not going to happen, it was too late to easily do something about it without triggering some other, unexpected and potentially undesirable consequences.

If that was true in the past, it is even more true now. So in essence you are basically stating that there is no fix to this so complaining makes no sense. I'd disagree here since we have seen far worse interruptions in the games economy and other inflation resistant items were just as easily addressed (see Black Lion Weapon skins, which were the past inflation resistant and always increasing in value investment, right until recurring skins were introduced).

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@"Cyninja.2954" said:That is WITHOUT factoring for increased demand from a veteran player base where far more players are crafting and requiring Mystic Coins and far more legendary items for unique slots requiring Mystic Coins. Those 50s back then, when adjusted for inflation and higher demand, could very well be 2g and even far higher currently.Inflation would have affected everything, not just selectively only MCs.

We are stable at 2.1g now. You are mixing buy order and sell order values. The "spike" to 2g was a spike to 2g/2.1g which has increased to 2.1/2.3g currently.Yes. Something that was a high spike a year ago is now considered to be stable low value. That's btw show how "stable" it really is.

Hardly a groundbreaking increase but rather a reaction to the further decline of other materials. Remember, Amalgamated Gemstones nearly halved in value, T6 materials dropped even more too.Like i said, past history of comparing MC prices with prices of stuff like Amalgamates, fine T6s and wood/metal show, that the MC trend is completely independent of what happens to all those mats. When they go down, MCs go up, but when they were increasing, MCs also kept going up.There's no "reaction".

You are correct though, eventually Mystic Coin could increase in value far enough to be an issue. If we take 2,800 gold as a baseline for crafting Nevermore (currently 2,184g), that would mean a Mystic Coin price of current+1.27g = 3.47g/3.67g at similar remaining materials cost. That's still a way off.Maybe. Still, the price increase keeps going at a rate faster than anyone except most pessimistic players predicted. It wasn't so long ago when the stable price as 1.6 and spike to 1.8g was temporary. Then the stable price was 1.8g and a spike to 2g was temporary... and here we are now with "stable price" at 2.1gSo, i'm not that optimistic about how fast getting to that level will take.

Also, that's only if all other mats will keep remaining at their low point and won't recover. I'd expect a number of new recipes to come with the expansion (including some pricey ones), so that may change relatively soon.

If that was true in the past, it is even more true now. So in essence you are basically stating that there is no fix to this so complaining makes no sense.I'm saying that there's no easy fix to it. They probably could have addressed this easily right away, but now it would require much more effort and careful touch. Or willingness to use a hammer approach.

Doesn't mean i think everything is fine though. And i definitely don't think that people should shut up and stop complaining even if they don't see an easy solution for something they think is a problem.

I'd disagree here since we have seen far worse interruptions in the games economy and other inflation resistant items were just as easily addressed (see Black Lion Weapon skins, which were the past inflation resistant and always increasing in value investment, right until recurring skins were introduced).Remember, that one of the reasons the black lion weapon skins (and past dyes) were addressed and introduced as recurring drops was because some of those skins (and dyes) increased in price to the point where complains about that got louder and more frequent.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:

@Cyninja.2954 said:If that was true in the past, it is even more true now. So in essence you are basically stating that there is no fix to this so complaining makes no sense.I'm saying that there's no
easy
fix to it. They probably could have addressed this easily right away, but now it would require much more effort and careful touch. Or willingness to use a hammer approach.

Doesn't mean i think everything is fine though. And i definitely don't think that people should shut up and stop complaining even if they don't see an easy solution for something they think is a problem.

I'd disagree here since we have seen far worse interruptions in the games economy and other inflation resistant items were just as easily addressed (see Black Lion Weapon skins, which were the past inflation resistant and always increasing in value investment, right until recurring skins were introduced).Remember, that one of the reasons the black lion weapon skins (and past dyes) were addressed and introduced as recurring drops was because some of those skins (and dyes) increased in price to the point where complains about that got louder and more frequent.

Absolutely, I might disagree but I would not disagree with players voicing concerns. Who knows, if the price does keep climbing I might join in in 1.5-2 gold.

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The thing with MC is that it's have a lot of pratical use, it's more than a buble that why it's keep climbing.

MC is basicly the second currency of this game at this point, the price follow the inflation and it's used in a lot of trade to avoid tax and have more than 500g trade by week (without speaking about the neverending legendary crafting from players). That why i don't see it's falling except if aenet act.

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@Khisanth.2948 said:

@Astralporing.1957 said:No. The current situation of MCs is purely due to the belief of a certain previous GW2 economy guy, who thought that the bubble is going to burst as soon as people's bank mats tabs will get filled with MCs and they'd start selling. That decision was made when MCs were at 50s. Years later that person no longer works for Anet, but the people are still hoarding, and the price is still increasing.

He is not wrong. At least for me. That is exactly what I would do with overflow coins. Unfortunately it is going to take 3-6 years to fill the storage assuming I stop using any coins in that time period.

Edit: There is also another important thing people seem to be ignoring. MC as an alternate currency to get around the gold limit on mail and price limit on TP. A 20k trade using 3g as the value per coin would take over 6k coins or 26 stacks. Compare that to the 32k of coins being sold on the TP right now that is a lot for a trade or two. It would only take a small number of people
thinking
(so they are storing a large amount but not large enough to actually pay for the trade) about doing such trades to gobble up the equivalent of all that is currently on the TP. Until those trades are completed they coins are taken out of circulation and they may stay out of circulation afterwards if the seller keeps them for future purchases.

Really if my calculation are correct it will takes my a bit over a year with 1250 st which fit in my storage. Well this amuses I'm doing cm fractals on a daily basis.

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@ArchonWing.9480 said:Never understood the issue. Shouldn't legendaries be difficult to craft? A few hundred gold is hardly anything.MCs are used not only for legendaries. They are also used for many, many other nonlegendary weapon recipes, for guild upgrades, for food plate/feast recipes, for armor box/satchel recipes... some of those recipes no longer make any sense now, because when they were created they assumed MCs to be extremely cheap and easy to get.

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@Astralporing.1957 said:

@ArchonWing.9480 said:Never understood the issue. Shouldn't legendaries be difficult to craft? A few hundred gold is hardly anything.MCs are used not only for legendaries. They are also used for many, many other nonlegendary weapon recipes, for guild upgrades, for food plate/feast recipes, for armor box/satchel recipes... some of those recipes no longer make any sense now, because when they were created they assumed MCs to be extremely cheap and easy to get.

Most of those recipes never made any sense in the first place and would make no sense now, even if MCs were cheap. Exotic and below feasts are not cost efficient because they usually required 10 of the normal food. It's now completely redundant with ascended food so It's pretty silly to bring up this at all. Same with Exotic Armor box sets; these never had a point because was not even cheaper to craft them vs crafting pieces individually.

As for those exotic mystic/ecto skins. they're really not that much expensive than before, because ectos and t6 mats have gotten cheaper, so that's really not something worth whining.

The only thing that remotely made any sense to make are the Mystic weapons, but that's when exotics were a bit pricey so they've pretty much passed their use since many exotic weapons are so cheap now.

Not to mention the OP and initial replies focused around legendaries, which is consistent with pretty much most discussions on this matter. So I am skeptical that any complaints focus around all those other things and bringing them up is a red herring at best.

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Interestingly, there is a consistently increasing in demand since Nov 2020 that hasn't ceased. Are there some new recipes that need MC's released since then or is it pure speculation people are buying them up anticipating need for MC's when EoD is released?

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@Astralporing.1957 said:

@ArchonWing.9480 said:Never understood the issue. Shouldn't legendaries be difficult to craft? A few hundred gold is hardly anything.MCs are used not only for legendaries. They are also used for many, many other nonlegendary weapon recipes, for guild upgrades, for food plate/feast recipes, for armor box/satchel recipes... some of those recipes no longer make any sense now, because when they were created they assumed MCs to be extremely cheap and easy to get.

Perhaps a request could be made to reduce the mystic coin requirements on them then? Well not for guild upgrades since those should remain a guild effort. I have no data on this but I believe that the primary sink for mystic coins are legendaries due to how many they use. The other things that use them require significantly less coins and tend to be a one-time sort of thing.

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@"Cyninja.2954" said:Let me give you a quote:

“640K ought to be enough for anyone” — Bill Gates (you can read up on the history and meaning of the quote her:
)

BTW, Bill Gates denies ever making that statement. It was inferred from the design of the original PC, which was also NOT his design.

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Anet have actually added more mystic coin sources recently. One additional fractal CM, the Drizzlewood coast commendations for clovers, and also the Icebrood saga reward tracks that give lots of clovers (/shiver track coming soon).

The recent spike in price probably has to do with 3 factors coinciding. Legendary armory will obviously increase demand for legendary gear. Judging by precedent, there will be a legendary trinket in chapter 4 of the Icebrood saga. Also, players tend to make legendaries as a preparation goal for upcoming expansions as it is, especially for the new elite specs.

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@Ganathar.4956 said:The recent spike in price probably has to do with 3 factors coinciding. Legendary armory will obviously increase demand for legendary gear. Judging by precedent, there will be a legendary trinket in chapter 4 of the Icebrood saga. Also, players tend to make legendaries as a preparation goal for upcoming expansions as it is, especially for the new elite specs.Actually, we do know that at least one of the recent spikes in price (last November) was caused by one (and the same) player. I'm not sure that he was behind the last month one as well, but from what i understand he did greatly contribute to making it possible. In both cases the price recovered after a spike, but (also in both cases) to a value that was greater than the one before the spike.At least one of those cases (the November one) had absolutely nothing to do with happenings within the game, but was a result of an argument between players from trading community

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Leaving aside the issue of whether or not MCs are overpriced at the moment, I think that if ANet wanted to increase the supply, probably the best solution would be to tie it to the various daily categories. For example, currently players get 2g for completing any 3 dailies. What if you also received a MC for completing 3 PvE dailies, 3 PvP dailies, and 3 WvW dailies (1 each, so a bonus 3 per day if you did all of them). Not only would this increase supply, but it would also increase participation in other game modes that could badly use an infusion of new blood. (PvP in particular. It's kind of disheartening when you do matches and keep on getting the same people, or worse, bots, over and over, day after day. It's like a "is this ALL of us??" feeling.)

This could also be expanded to the various LS daily categories to help breathe new life into abandoned zones.

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@"Zaxares.5419" said:Leaving aside the issue of whether or not MCs are overpriced at the moment, I think that if ANet wanted to increase the supply, probably the best solution would be to tie it to the various daily categories. For example, currently players get 2g for completing any 3 dailies. What if you also received a MC for completing 3 PvE dailies, 3 PvP dailies, and 3 WvW dailies (1 each, so a bonus 3 per day if you did all of them). Not only would this increase supply, but it would also increase participation in other game modes that could badly use an infusion of new blood. (PvP in particular. It's kind of disheartening when you do matches and keep on getting the same people, or worse, bots, over and over, day after day. It's like a "is this ALL of us??" feeling.)

This could also be expanded to the various LS daily categories to help breathe new life into abandoned zones.

I think, while i agree with you for the most part, that would anger a lot of people because they'd be thinking they're forced to do modes they don't like. Especially if there's a MC reward for raids as well, people would be furious lol. From what i read on the forums, and that's by no means the "general consensus" but still.... If there's a rare reward for something, people feel like it's an obligation rather than an option, and that doesn't sit well with most.

Though, one way of increasing supply would be to just get 1 MC for any finished daily. That way people can still do what they like, and the supply increases.And honestly, i don't even think prices would drop much with that, if at all, cause i'm sure barons would find a way to "stabilize" the price to what suits them lol. Kind of a win/win i guess haha.

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@"firedragon.8953" said:Honestly, I don't see a problem.

However, let's have some fun here.They should add the ability to purchase mystic coins with a big sack of dungeon token currency. 400 dungeon tokens for most dungeons and 300 dungeon tokens for level 80 dungeons. They should make a little "skritt black market trader" that moves around core Tyria like Historian Elisa moves around Elona and will trade golden shinnies for dungeon shinnies, yes?!. However, cap out the daily maximum purchase of coins from the skritt at 5 coins a day. Make dungeons great again! haha

this. dungeons could be the de facto farm for anything that has a rapidly rising cost.

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@"Zaxares.5419" said:Leaving aside the issue of whether or not MCs are overpriced at the moment, I think that if ANet wanted to increase the supply, probably the best solution would be to tie it to the various daily categories. For example, currently players get 2g for completing any 3 dailies. What if you also received a MC for completing 3 PvE dailies, 3 PvP dailies, and 3 WvW dailies (1 each, so a bonus 3 per day if you did all of them). Not only would this increase supply, but it would also increase participation in other game modes that could badly use an infusion of new blood. (PvP in particular. It's kind of disheartening when you do matches and keep on getting the same people, or worse, bots, over and over, day after day. It's like a "is this ALL of us??" feeling.)

This could also be expanded to the various LS daily categories to help breathe new life into abandoned zones.

or it gives an infusion of more bots, semi-afk teammates, and teammates who are worse than a bot. I am pretty sure PvP has more than enough of those already.

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Maybe ppl are buying a lot of mystic coins and gamble it on mystic toilet to get clovers.. maybe that's causing the shortage of mystic coins... If we craft a legendary, it should feel like its worthy to be called a legendary... nowadays.. ppl farm mindlessly for gold (players/casuals/tp players) just accumulate gold buy coins off tp and dump mystic coins into the toilet and increase demand for mystic coins and thus price rise up rapidly more than the supply can compensate for it...

My suggestion would be... anet should remove the recipe to obtain clovers from coins in mystic toilet... Legendaries should not be crafted by throwing money at it... Gen2 legendaries is okay... since it has some time gated materials and u can't craft or buy gen2 legendaries by simply throwing money at it... Increased price for mystic coins is also a good thing coz u can't simply buy mc for low price and finish legendaries and that would defeat the meaning of a legendary...

some ppl in forums might feel so proud that they are crafting legendary every week like as if they earned those legendaries... its all bcoz of that D.A.M.N clover recipe in mystic forge.. pls remove the recipe... when I craft a legendary with every step gathering clovers in fractal vendor, wvw reward track, pvp reward track and gathering mystic coins thru all painstaking ways and feel proud to craft a legendary, and suddenly I hear someone thowing money at it and crafting legendary every week, that totally disheartens me.. the word "Legendaries" lost its sheen.. might as well rename it to "coindaries"

removing the clover recipe from mystic forge will reduce(significantly) the list of posts like "mystic coin price increase/mystic coin fix price/ mystic coin controlled by tp barons" and all other QQ posts regarding mystic coins

above section might be incoherent and might irritate few ppl... but the point im trying to convey is remove clover recipe from forge and bring glory to the word "legendary" and bring respect to those honestly put effort into crafting one and not throwing money at it...

edit:made sure no words are replaced by "kitten" X)

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