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Ascended armor drops favor new and returning players


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I think theres a conspiracy around ascended armor drops... I experienced it myself... When I was new to fractals I got around 8 armor chest and lot of asc trinkets in t1 - t2 level within approx 10-12 days....

But once I improved my personal fractal level to t4 and equip asc gears, I stopped getting even a single asc armor box or asc trinkets... No asc drops for 2 months

If we complete teq, TT and fracs regularly, anet's rng algorithm allots us little to zero chance for asc drops

Maybe a week's break is what we need to reset rng favor...

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2 months without a drop isn't that unlikely. 8 chests within two weeks isn't either.

From the [KING] data posted some time ago, I ran some "monte carlo simulations" to see what sort of loot we could expect over thousands of dailies. Simulating 10k dailies, it's typical to have streaks of at least 30-no-box days at least 10-15 times. The longest streaks without any armor or weapon is 50-65 days.

Given that probably a lot more than 10k people fractal, one of us is going to suffer luck that bad. Maybe you, maybe me.

This comes up from time to time because we humans aren't very good at understanding random behavior. We see "average" and we think that means "what we should expect," except... it's nothing close. RNG works in streaks, it's never steady. And good luck doesn't inevitably follow bad or vice versa. We tend to assume great import in whatever stats we see in front of us right now, only... this week's stats are no more important than last week's or last year's.

If you really want to know what's going on with your account compared so someone else's, you'd need to collect months and months and months of chests. There's a huge variance, because of the way the drop tables are set up.

The main reason to take a break: it resets your mood. And since fun is a big part of why we play, that's worth doing.

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The biggest conspiracy with ascended armor is that in order to make wvw and pvp more competitive the stat-armor bonus is not that high. I've used exotic armors on my warrior since I made it, aside from the ascended trinkets I bought with the laurels I didn't have any use for.

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I routinely go 30+ days without any weapon/armor box drop; sometimes going a week or more without a ring/accessory/amulet. Kind of a running joke in my guild about it.

It seems that I used to get quite a lot of boxes, having fully geared 3 characters just off Fractals in my first 3-4 months of doing them. Must've used up all my RNG right at the start, I guess.

Lately, though, I've been seeing a lot Amulets/Accessories instead of rings, which I've never gotten before. So I suspect something on the back end has been tinkered with, documented or not.

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When I first started WvW as a new player in mid 2017, I got 6 ascended armor boxes and 4 ascended weapon boxes from rank up rewards in my first month (from rank 0 to 230 or so) and I could fully gear up. I'm now pushing rank 2200 and I haven't had one drop since. I don't think OPs "conspiracy" is too crazy sounding.

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There is this "thing" which some of us refer to as "returning luck". If a person goes on a longer break, like a month, possibly more, when they come back they will have an insanely increased luck to get "rare" drops.What are these drops ? Precursors, 500g-2000g drop from ecto gamble. These are most common from what i saw.

Does this "returning luck" actualy exist ? Nobody knows, but it does seem it has effect quite often. I personaly didnt experience it on my account, since i login daily, however, after my gf logged in after like 2 months, i told her to drop some exotics into MF (was 3 attempts i think). She got Leaf of Kudzu on second one.There have been multiple other cases which i expirienced with friends, but in the end, its just a myth.

If this somehow is a thing though, then this is a smart way of trying to keep returning players, to not leave the game again for multiple months.

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@"Glider.5792" said:There is this "thing" which some of us refer to as "returning luck". If a person goes on a longer break, like a month, possibly more, when they come back they will have an insanely increased luck to get "rare" drops.What are these drops ? Precursors, 500g-2000g drop from ecto gamble. These are most common from what i saw.No, this isn't "common." We can't take data from just the returning people you know and draw any conclusions.

Does this "returning luck" actualy exist ? Nobody knows, but it does seem it has effect quite often.We do know, because we'd see dozens and dozens of posts by all the people who returned after month-long breaks.

I personaly didnt experience it on my account, since i login daily, however, after my gf logged in after like 2 months, i told her to drop some exotics into MF (was 3 attempts i think). She got Leaf of Kudzu on second one.Someone is always going to get a precursor in the MF, every day. Why wouldn't it be your GF? Why couldn't it be right after she returned from a break?

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2 Months ago I had an average of around 5-7 ascended chests per week from fractal T4s (with often 2 chests per day). It was getting so ludicrous I actually salvaged around 15 boxes of gloves, boots and shoulders keeping only 6 per armor piece on hand (which I will never need but I like having a few bank tabs wasted on ascended gear). Guild mates were actually making fun of me that I was draining all their drop luck.

Currently I'm seeing maybe 1 chest per week of ascended gear drop in T4 with as little as 1 chest per 2 weeks.

Long story short: it's rng because I was a veteran player 2 months ago and I'm a veteran player now.

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@"Glider.5792" said:There is this "thing" which some of us refer to as "returning luck". If a person goes on a longer break, like a month, possibly more, when they come back they will have an insanely increased luck to get "rare" drops.What are these drops ? Precursors, 500g-2000g drop from ecto gamble. These are most common from what i saw.

Does this "returning luck" actualy exist ? Nobody knows, but it does seem it has effect quite often. I personaly didnt experience it on my account, since i login daily, however, after my gf logged in after like 2 months, i told her to drop some exotics into MF (was 3 attempts i think). She got Leaf of Kudzu on second one.There have been multiple other cases which i expirienced with friends, but in the end, its just a myth.

If this somehow is a thing though, then this is a smart way of trying to keep returning players, to not leave the game again for multiple months.

I believe.

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I've been saying this for awhile now too.. I mainly play WvW and years ago I would get ascended drops fairly frequently. I can honestly say I haven't got an ascended armor drop in over two years in WvW on my main account. On my alt accounts (low level) I still get ascended armor drops.

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@AlexxxDelta.1806 said:OP have you been playing Anthem recently by any chance? Or frequent its subreddit?

On a more serious note, theories like this are just...theories. Because unless one has insider info or a large sample of recorded data from different players, there is no way to verify.

I don't have much data... Just my own experience... If others feel the same way, they could share their opinions too... Maybe I should've made this a poll instead... That could've collected some prerequisite data to consider the scenario

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@Crystal Paladin.3871 said:

@AlexxxDelta.1806 said:OP have you been playing Anthem recently by any chance? Or frequent its subreddit?

On a more serious note, theories like this are just...theories. Because unless one has insider info or a large sample of recorded data from different players, there is no way to verify.

I don't have much data... Just my own experience... If others feel the same way, they could share their opinions too... Maybe I should've made this a poll instead... That could've collected some prerequisite data to consider the scenario

What i feel is that fractal loot got silently nerfed with Istan. Not much but I'm sure some numbers after comma (xx,001) got lowered.It goes from ascended chests to trash you get from crates.

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@phs.6089 said:

@AlexxxDelta.1806 said:OP have you been playing Anthem recently by any chance? Or frequent its subreddit?

On a more serious note, theories like this are just...theories. Because unless one has insider info or a large sample of recorded data from different players, there is no way to verify.

I don't have much data... Just my own experience... If others feel the same way, they could share their opinions too... Maybe I should've made this a poll instead... That could've collected some prerequisite data to consider the scenario

What i feel is that fractal loot got silently nerfed with Istan. Not much but I'm sure some numbers after comma (xx,001) got lowered.It goes from ascended chests to trash you get from crates.

^^This could be true too

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I think ascended drops shouldn't be this hard to get...(of course we craft them... But most ppl don't max out craft...) It should be made somewhat lenient.... Coz, u can't sell ascended items in tp... Most are account bound... This might not affect economy much... And ppl would get ready for raids and WvW with these gears and ppl would spend more time in end game content (doesn't apply to PVP)... Less reason for ppl to leave gw2... Atleast this is what I think... Maybe I'm wrong, I might've missed something ...idk

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@Crystal Paladin.3871 said:I think ascended drops shouldn't be this hard to get...(of course we craft them... But most ppl don't max out craft...) It should be made somewhat lenient.... Coz, u can't sell ascended items in tp... Most are account bound... This might not affect economy much... And ppl would get ready for raids and WvW with these gears and ppl would spend more time in end game content (doesn't apply to PVP)... Less reason for ppl to leave gw2... Atleast this is what I think... Maybe I'm wrong, I might've missed something ...idk

First misconception:Ascended is needed for raids or wvw. It most certainly is not.

Second misconception:Making BiS gear available more freely will cause people to play more. Very doubtful to say the least. People who enjoy the game based on its merits outside of gear, will keep playing the game (and wouldn't care to much to begin with). People obsessed with gear will definitely leave earlier if given said gear faster.

Third misconception:Ascended not being available on the TP (there actually is some and insignias most certainly are purchasable) will not have any effect on the TP. Even account bound ascended gear has an effect on the TP. Most directly on prices of materials for crafting it becoming more useless.

The drop rate of ascended gear is fine in pve and might even be slightly to high in T4 fractals. For any seasoned player (aka playing the game and T4 fractals for more than 3-6 months) ascended becomes a non-issue. It does present a barrier for people who do not T4 fractal or who are new to the game, providing a moderate initial challenge and goal for new players.

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I get 3 to 5 chest drops a week. Remember Rng is Rng and your results may differ but I will tell you what I do. Because I too thought the Rng gods were being obnoxiously brutal to me. So I decided to try something different and now I wont go back.

I collect at least 7 days worth of chests. I do NOT open them one at a time by clicking over and over again. I right click and then open all. Make sure you have a decent amount of inventory space to not stop any chests from not opening. Give this a try and test your luck.

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I'm only up to a personal level of 40 (T2), but last night I got two rings, one of which was a copy of one I bought at the laurel vendor, and the other I will probably never use. This was the first time I've gotten anything in the drawn out time of doing fractals.

I've always thought the system was a little strange. The most ascendeds come when you need them the least. I would like to see it shift into something that allows you to acquire more as you move forward, not less as you go down. T1 offers rings and neck, T2 adds trinkets and a higher than current chance for armor, T3 bumps up the armor rate, and T4 adds in weapons. I'm not asking for gear to be thrown at me, but a bit higher chance to get what I need to progress would be great before I get to the end.

I can only assume they want to push crafting, another aspect of the game, in order to acquire most, if not all of that first set of ascended gear, but the crafting in this game is just so boring, and convoluted. I managed to push my way through armor crafting to get a heavy set, but now that I've changed to necro, it's just so hard to find the effort to do it again. I am working on it, it's just such a tedious slog.

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