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The problem with high end infusions


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With the Chak and Festive Infusions it looks like some people are artificially inflating the prices. All of them have bids at 10,000g exactly and then the next highest is 6,000g or less.

Almost any other high-end item has a fairly even increase in buy offers (and sell offers, if there are any) and even 'big' jumps are less than 1,000g. I realise this will sound like a conspiracy theory (and I guess in a sense it is) but to me that looks like some people put in buy orders at the maximum price specifically to block any other sales going through...possibly because they have infusions to sell and want to push buyers to purchase them outside the TP so they can maximise their profit. (And honestly this is a win-win for them because if someone sells one to them they can resell it for a profit, and if not they can cancel the bid and get 100% of their gold back.)

I hope that's the case, the other possibility I can think of is some people are trying to push buyers outside the TP because they don't have one to sell and want to scam them into sending some/all the gold for nothing in return.

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In my book, a large scale event that everyone can participate it, but only the 0,01% of it gets actual rewards which are monstrously disproportionate in value, only causes flares up, and create tensions. It doesn't do a service to the Community, or the devs. It doesn't leave a good feeling in the vast majority of the playerbase, which means the event will end up either shunned, criticized or outright hated.

I think that thread is a good indicator of it.

Events should be fun, fair, and fairly reward the Majority of participants, not the minority. I've outright not bothered with it because it's taken 5 years for the game to drop me an ascended Equipment. Considering my abysmal luck at getting something many consider trivial, this kind of event is daunting to me.

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@Jayden Reese.9542 said:There wouldn't be a need for a black market as much if the max price you can list was not limited to 10,000. You can get much much more. Some might still trade if cap was eliminated to dodge the 15 percent tax where others would sell for 25,000 and eat 15 percent to not risk getting mixed up with a gold seller and risk accidental ban.

This is the most logical solution. Increase the damn tp bidding cap.

@Naxos.2503 said:In my book, a large scale event that everyone can participate it, but only the 0,01% of it gets actual rewards which are monstrously disproportionate in value, only causes flares up, and create tensions. It doesn't do a service to the Community, or the devs. It doesn't leave a good feeling in the vast majority of the playerbase, which means the event will end up either shunned, criticized or outright hated.

I think that thread is a good indicator of it.

Events should be fun, fair, and fairly reward the Majority of participants, not the minority. I've outright not bothered with it because it's taken 5 years for the game to drop me an ascended Equipment. Considering my abysmal luck at getting something many consider trivial, this kind of event is daunting to me.

Well said. This event is utter garbage. I rather not see stuff like this in the future.

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Well said. This event is utter garbage. I rather not see stuff like this in the future.

Just try to ignore it I guess. There are a lot more liquid infusions around than people realise which do pass hands quite commonly. I have acquired 3 queen bees this year and 11 permafrost Dyes however, like most players who do this my goal is not trying to make money long term. It just makes sense to buy these items given the drop rate and proportion of players that have them who are largely inactive. Its pretty much a wealth thing, if you know what to do with your money you never won't be able to afford something you want.

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Dear 8235e844-bla bklajdkfjakldjfads . I gave up today man. I ran the event a lot, never got anything, ignored. 3 queen bees this year? nice man. That's my aim for the next stage of the game for me. My goal was to have a legendary skin for every weapon in the game and I'm close to finishing that. How sad that there is a guy out there with some of this ultra rare infusions who doesn't play anymore.... Cheers man!

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@"Nandor The Stampede.1593" said:This is the most logical solution. Increase the kitten tp bidding cap.

The logical solution would be to increase the drop rate of most infusions by a lot. And by "a lot", I mean by multiple orders of magnitude.

Of course, even mentioning that kind of thing makes the digital robber barons really mad, so of course Anet would never do it.

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@Blood Red Arachnid.2493 said:This is something that I wonder about. I do Junundu Rising daily now, largely to have a chance at the mini. This mini sells for the gold cap, and it is so rare that there's none of them standing on the market. Hasn't been one for months. I keep wondering if this was Anets intent: to make an item that nobody will have, nobody will be able to have. It's a bit like making a large sculpture, then burying it in the ground, then hoping that somebody appreciates it when they dig it up one day.

Or, the people that have it don't want to sell it...and people don't understand that there's an increase in the drop rate of Super Rare items just by the fact of increasing the number of participants in the event or what have you is the generator of that drop. In other words, if 100 people a day did Junundu Rising for the mini, and that increased to 1000 per day, you've just increased the percent that the item will drop by 100, spread out over a 100 times more people, but that's 900 more opportunities for it to drop...analytical statistics at it's finest.

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@Zaklex.6308 said:

@Blood Red Arachnid.2493 said:This is something that I wonder about. I do Junundu Rising daily now, largely to have a chance at the mini. This mini sells for the gold cap, and it is so rare that there's none of them standing on the market. Hasn't been one for months. I keep wondering if this was Anets intent: to make an item that nobody will have, nobody will be able to have. It's a bit like making a large sculpture, then burying it in the ground, then hoping that somebody appreciates it when they dig it up one day.

Or, the people that have it don't want to sell it...and people don't understand that there's an increase in the drop rate of Super Rare items just by the fact of increasing the number of participants in the event or what have you is the generator of that drop. In other words, if 100 people a day did Junundu Rising for the mini, and that increased to 1000 per day, you've just increased the percent that the item will drop by 100, spread out over a 100 times more people, but that's 900 more opportunities for it to drop...analytical statistics at it's finest.

Your math is way off. An increase from 100 to 1000 isn't a 100% increase in drop rate. It is a 900% increase in drop rate. Second, 1000 is not 100 times more than 100. It is 10 times more than 100. Third, and this is the crucial part here, 1000 times nothing is still nothing. These items are so rare that multiplying participants by 10 doesn't meaningfully impact the market, which rests at 0 supply at all time.

This isn't analytical statistics. It's conspiracy.

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@Blood Red Arachnid.2493 said:

@Blood Red Arachnid.2493 said:This is something that I wonder about. I do Junundu Rising daily now, largely to have a chance at the mini. This mini sells for the gold cap, and it is so rare that there's none of them standing on the market. Hasn't been one for months. I keep wondering if this was Anets intent: to make an item that nobody will have, nobody will be able to have. It's a bit like making a large sculpture, then burying it in the ground, then hoping that somebody appreciates it when they dig it up one day.

Or, the people that have it don't want to sell it...and people don't understand that there's an increase in the drop rate of Super Rare items just by the fact of increasing the number of participants in the event or what have you is the generator of that drop. In other words, if 100 people a day did Junundu Rising for the mini, and that increased to 1000 per day, you've just increased the percent that the item will drop by 100, spread out over a 100 times more people, but that's 900 more opportunities for it to drop...analytical statistics at it's finest.

Your math is way off. An increase from 100 to 1000 isn't a 100% increase in drop rate. It is a 900% increase in drop rate. Second, 1000 is not 100 times more than 100. It is 10 times more than 100. Third, and this is the crucial part here, 1000 times nothing is still nothing. These items are so rare that multiplying participants by 10 doesn't meaningfully impact the market, which rests at 0 supply at all time.

This isn't analytical statistics. It's conspiracy.

Some of the math is incorrect, but lets do it simply...if you have a .1% chance of a drop and 100 people attempt it, that's still a .1% chance for of the item possibly dropping for each of those 100 people, if you increase the amount of people 10 fold to 1000, now you have 1000 people that have that same .1% chance of the item possibly dropping(it is still a chance after all, it's not guaranteed)...this is where fuzzy math comes in, though the percentage chance per person doesn't change and the chance that amongst those 900 additional people the .1% is unchanged...between all of them the chance is still .1% but now you have 1000 people instead of just 100 with the same chance for the chance at something to drop...I love fuzzy math.

P.S. - This whole thing is a load of BS, just trying to get people to stop worrying about the darn drop rates and play...if you want it that bad, buy it, you won't die without it.

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@Nandor The Stampede.1593 said:At the moment, to get your hands on the chak or festive infusions, you basically have to find a black market and do trading outside of the game. There are several all over the internet. Surely this wasn't anet's goal?How about increasing the drop rate? No? u want them to still be super rare?How about increasing the cap on the amount you can bid in the tp? You still find ways to complain about this?How about anet just coming out and saying that any type of trading outside of the game will not get your account banned in any form, bc a lot of these accounts have become too valuable to take a risk.

Nobody should be forced to find a black market to get an infusion if they have the gold, and at the same time taking a chance to get their account banned.

I think the maximum gold amount for items at the trading post should be upped to 20,000 gold and not 10,000g that's way too low...

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@Zaklex.6308 said:

Some of the math is incorrect, but lets do it simply...if you have a .1% chance of a drop and 100 people attempt it, that's still a .1% chance for of the item possibly dropping for each of those 100 people, if you increase the amount of people 10 fold to 1000, now you have 1000 people that have that same .1% chance of the item possibly dropping(it is still a chance after all, it's not guaranteed)...this is where fuzzy math comes in, though the percentage chance per person doesn't change and the chance that amongst those 900 additional people the .1% is unchanged...between all of them the chance is still .1% but now you have 1000 people instead of just 100 with the same chance for the chance at something to drop...I love fuzzy math.

P.S. - This whole thing is a load of BS, just trying to get people to stop worrying about the darn drop rates and play...if you want it that bad, buy it, you won't die without it.

When I say rate, I don't mean individual drop chance. I mean that total sum coming into the market. Also, the point that I am bring up is that the number is so low that multiplying it by 1000 doesn't matter much.

For example, lets say that the drop rate is 1/1,000,000,000. If there are 1,000 people doing it, the chances are 1,000/1,000,000,000. That comes to one out of a million, which means there still won't be any being added to the market. It was effectively zero before the increase, and it is effectively zero after. Likewise, your last sentence doesn't make sense: we can't buy it because there are none available.

Personally, I'm of the mind that there should never be an item worth more than the market cap. Ever. An item is mechanically broken if it is worth more than what the game can handle. If the infusions and minis are so rare that they have to be traded on the black market, then the drop rate for these items needs to be increased significantly. The only people who would lose out on this are the obscenely rich black market traders, and I'm certain they can eat the losses.

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@Naxos.2503 said:In my book, a large scale event that everyone can participate it, but only the 0,01% of it gets actual rewards which are monstrously disproportionate in value, only causes flares up, and create tensions. It doesn't do a service to the Community, or the devs. It doesn't leave a good feeling in the vast majority of the playerbase, which means the event will end up either shunned, criticized or outright hated.

I think that thread is a good indicator of it.

Events should be fun, fair, and fairly reward the Majority of participants, not the minority. I've outright not bothered with it because it's taken 5 years for the game to drop me an ascended Equipment. Considering my abysmal luck at getting something many consider trivial, this kind of event is daunting to me.

If the chance was 0.01% then the market would be flooded with infusions.

It should be around 0.0000001%.

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@DanAlcedo.3281 said:

@Naxos.2503 said:In my book, a large scale event that everyone can participate it, but only the 0,01% of it gets actual rewards which are monstrously disproportionate in value, only causes flares up, and create tensions. It doesn't do a service to the Community, or the devs. It doesn't leave a good feeling in the vast majority of the playerbase, which means the event will end up either shunned, criticized or outright hated.

I think that thread is a good indicator of it.

Events should be fun, fair, and fairly reward the Majority of participants, not the minority. I've outright not bothered with it because it's taken 5 years for the game to drop me an ascended Equipment. Considering my abysmal luck at getting something many consider trivial, this kind of event is daunting to me.

If the chance was 0.01% then the market would be flooded with infusions.

It should be around 0.0000001%.

anet should just gem store these infusions lol. profit.

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@Eremes Guile.1480 said:

@Naxos.2503 said:In my book, a large scale event that everyone can participate it, but only the 0,01% of it gets actual rewards which are monstrously disproportionate in value, only causes flares up, and create tensions. It doesn't do a service to the Community, or the devs. It doesn't leave a good feeling in the vast majority of the playerbase, which means the event will end up either shunned, criticized or outright hated.

I think that thread is a good indicator of it.

Events should be fun, fair, and fairly reward the Majority of participants, not the minority. I've outright not bothered with it because it's taken 5 years for the game to drop me an ascended Equipment. Considering my abysmal luck at getting something many consider trivial, this kind of event is daunting to me.

If the chance was 0.01% then the market would be flooded with infusions.

It should be around 0.0000001%.

anet should just gem store these infusions lol. profit.

They did this ones (if i remember correctly).

You could get them out of Blacklion Chests.

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@DanAlcedo.3281 said:

@Naxos.2503 said:In my book, a large scale event that everyone can participate it, but only the 0,01% of it gets actual rewards which are monstrously disproportionate in value, only causes flares up, and create tensions. It doesn't do a service to the Community, or the devs. It doesn't leave a good feeling in the vast majority of the playerbase, which means the event will end up either shunned, criticized or outright hated.

I think that thread is a good indicator of it.

Events should be fun, fair, and fairly reward the Majority of participants, not the minority. I've outright not bothered with it because it's taken 5 years for the game to drop me an ascended Equipment. Considering my abysmal luck at getting something many consider trivial, this kind of event is daunting to me.

If the chance was 0.01% then the market would be flooded with infusions.

It should be around 0.0000001%.

anet should just gem store these infusions lol. profit.

They did this ones (if i remember correctly).

You could get them out of Blacklion Chests.

nah no blc. just put it up there on gemstore.. only difference is, dont give it stats. i'd buy that even if it's like 4k gems, i'll throw my money right away.

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The drop rate for super rare is something in the realm of 1:1000(in reality this means you can open up to 1.000.000 boxes and getting nothing ) you may collect 200th of them during the week which most wont do. In theory if everyone is doing it there would be still an increase in the numbers of infusion but there are 2 things against this :

1.) The amount will never be bigger then the demand.2.) The way this event is designed it makes no sense to do it because as an individual your chance to get one of these is so slim it doesn't makes sense even to try it.

The reason is the other stuff your get from the boxes isn't much worth .(except maybe some T6 mats but you can get them somewhere else) If the event run again in a foreseeable future nobody will do it because they haven't got anything . On top of of it there is with the monocle a zonk in it . It has still a value around 100g but nothing in compare to the others and you can get in out of the festival. The one rare thing I have already previously from where I don't know.

If this event had a token system where you can buy stuff later with it this would be a complete different story.

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@Blood Red Arachnid.2493 said:

Some of the math is incorrect, but lets do it simply...if you have a .1% chance of a drop and 100 people attempt it, that's still a .1% chance for of the item possibly dropping for each of those 100 people, if you increase the amount of people 10 fold to 1000, now you have 1000 people that have that same .1% chance of the item possibly dropping(it is still a chance after all, it's not guaranteed)...this is where fuzzy math comes in, though the percentage chance per person doesn't change and the chance that amongst those 900 additional people the .1% is unchanged...between all of them the chance is still .1% but now you have 1000 people instead of just 100 with the same chance for the chance at something to drop...I love fuzzy math.

P.S. - This whole thing is a load of BS, just trying to get people to stop worrying about the darn drop rates and play...if you want it that bad, buy it, you won't die without it.

When I say rate, I don't mean individual drop chance. I mean that total sum coming into the market. Also, the point that I am bring up is that the number is so low that multiplying it by 1000 doesn't matter much.

For example, lets say that the drop rate is 1/1,000,000,000. If there are 1,000 people doing it, the chances are 1,000/1,000,000,000. That comes to one out of a million, which means there still won't be any being added to the market. It was effectively zero before the increase, and it is effectively zero after. Likewise, your last sentence doesn't make sense:
we can't buy it
because there are none available.

Personally, I'm of the mind that there should never be an item worth more than the market cap. Ever. An item is mechanically broken if it is worth more than what the game can handle. If the infusions and minis are so rare that they have to be traded on the black market, then the drop rate for these items needs to be increased significantly. The only people who would lose out on this are the obscenely rich black market traders, and I'm certain they can eat the losses.

The only reason they're on the black market and not the TP is because the sellers are greedy bastards...there is no other reason what so ever, if you can't live with a 10k cap on an items price then you're just plain greedy in this case.

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