Mystic Clover Forge Chance

[Bort.8647]

I craft and sell legendaries to make gold. However after making my first few they have become much more expensive to craft due to very low mystic clover forging chances. The wiki states around a 30% forge change which I initially was getting, but now ive been consistently getting between 15-20% for the last 5 legendaries ive crafted. Do diminishing returns effect mystic forge recipes, or am I just consistently a very unlucky person? I always do the 1 clover recipe.

[Ayrilana.1396]

Just a bad run. I crafted all of the weapons and was averaging around 33%. Sometimes it would take over a stack of each component to get 77 and other times much less.

[crepuscular.9047]

it's all RNG

if you have plenty of time, go alternative paths like PvP/WvW reward tracks, or you can play lots of FotM and trade in your fractal relics with mystic coin

or farm LW3 map for Unbound Magic and trade in for Magic-Warped Bundle

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

tl;dr take a little time to consider how sure you are of your results; the most plausible theory is that there hasn't been a change in drop rates

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If the true rate is 30% then the odds of getting fewer than 50 clovers per stack of ecto is 0.013%, i.e. very very unlikely. But definitely could be happening to someone in a game with this many players.

However, the chance that it was 250 clover from 1250 ecto (i.e. roughly your reported 20% for 5 legendaries) is around 4 chances out of 10 quadrillion, i.e. all but impossible in the collective lifetime of every player.

Are you absolutely certain you didn't accidentally deposit-to-bank or miscount how many times you forged etc? I like to think I'm extremely careful, but I had to throw out a whole set of results for clover forging because I realized I didn't track correctly. Since then, I record results every 100 attempts (although there are new tools out there that can track for you, e.g. @"Silveress.5197" has a 'farming calculator' that would work).

The reason I question the data rather than accept the theory that ANet might have changed the drop rate is that lots of people make legendaries for profit and surely, some of them would have reported this after the patch which created a change. Since I haven't seen anything like that, I find that inadequate as a hypothesis. In contrast, there are oodles of examples of players (including myself) who didn't keep clean data, leading to a misunderstanding of drop rates.

Also there's huge amounts of evidence that DR doesn't apply to the Mystic Forge generally nor to clover specifically.

In the end, it's more likely there's some sort of accounting mistake, rather than an otherwise-unnoticed nerf to the drop rate.

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Added: Another possibility: maybe you used the 10-clover recipe? The chance of getting only 25 successes out of 125 trials (also using 1250 ecto) is 0.4%... that is horribly unlucky, but almost certainly is happening to someone.

(I know in the initial post you said you were sure you used the 1-clover recipe; given the odds, I thought it might be worthwhile to double check)

[Turkeyspit.3965]

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:Added: Another possibility: maybe you used the 10-clover recipe?

Objection!

@Bort.8647 said:I always do the 1 clover recipe.

Asked and answered B)

Sorry, been watching too many lawyer shows on Amazon Prime lately.... :blush:

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

Added:

Another possibility: maybe you used the 10-clover recipe?

Objection!

@Bort.8647 said:I always do the 1 clover recipe.

Asked and answered B)

Sure, I saw that. But...Well people sometimes change their minds.

Sorry, been watching too many lawyer shows on Amazon Prime lately.... :blush:Naw, I should have stated first that I know the OP said they used the 1-clover recipe religiously.

It's just that when the odds are in the quadrillions against... well, it's worth double checking.

[Khisanth.2948]

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:

@Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:

Added:

Another possibility: maybe you used the 10-clover recipe?

Objection!

@Bort.8647 said:I always do the 1 clover recipe.

Asked and answered B)

Sure, I saw that. But...Well people sometimes change their minds.

Sorry, been watching too many lawyer shows on Amazon Prime lately.... :blush:Naw, I should have stated first that I know the OP said they used the 1-clover recipe religiously.

It's just that when the odds are in the quadrillions against... well, it's worth double checking.

On the other hand the only difference between the recipes is a single ingredient so it is a relatively easy mistake to make.

[Katastroff.1045]

Sorry for coming a bit late on the discussion but, does magic find counts when crafting mystic clovers?

[Tanner Blackfeather.6509]

Nope, to my knowledge Magic Find doesn't affect anything in the Mystic Forge.

[Ayrilana.1396]

@"Katastroff.1045" said:Sorry for coming a bit late on the discussion but, does magic find counts when crafting mystic clovers?

No. Magic Find only affects monster drops and the chests that have tooltips that specifically state it affects them.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Magic_Find

[Katastroff.1045]

Thank you.:)

[Turkeyspit.3965]

For what it's worth, many of the Reward Tracks for WvW/PvP have 2 clovers in the final chest. I rarely 'craft' my clovers, but get most of them from reward track chests or loyalty chests....but I also don't mind waiting for a few months / loyalty chests.

[Illconceived Was Na.9781]

@Turkeyspit.3965 said:For what it's worth, many of the Reward Tracks for WvW/PvP have 2 clovers in the final chest. I rarely 'craft' my clovers, but get most of them from reward track chests or loyalty chests....but I also don't mind waiting for a few months / loyalty chests.

Good advice.

Another decent source are magic warped bundles, purchased with unbound magic. The bundles themselves are worth 50-70s per 1000 unbound magic (after costs and fees, based on current market values) and clovers drop at roughly 4-5%, i.e. from four stacks (1000 bundles), you could expect 40-50 clover.