Question about so-called "Luck Accounts"

[JustTrogdor.7892]

Here are some quotes in the archived old forum from John Smith, the former Head of Analytics and game economy manager:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/please-delete-14/page/15#post4487357

Quote

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Do-accounts-have-luck-and-is-it-right/page/2#post6017963

Quote

Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.

 

 

[Ashantara.8731]

Just now, JustTrogdor.7892 said:

Here are some quotes in the archived old forum [...]

Thank you so much for taking the time to snoop through the old archives. 🥰

[Strider Pj.2193]

I wasn't saying you were complaining @Ashantara.8731  😀

 

Was just joining in on the thread.  

[Ashantara.8731]

4 minutes ago, Strider Pj.2193 said:

I wasn't saying you were complaining @Ashantara.8731  😀

Oh no, I didn't mean it like that. 🙂 It was more of a clarification to ensure people understood that I didn't have any hidden motive. 😉

[Blude.6812]

4 hours ago, Randulf.7614 said:

Yes they have, on one of the old forums years ago. There are no such things as lucky accounts in GW2

Right! it was archived , but they did seem to agree that there are unlucky accounts.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Blude.6812

[Khisanth.2948]

Why aren't you directing this claim for evidence at whoever is making the claims?

That aside, is this a claim about a single account or a single person?

1 person multiboxing on 50 accounts while playing the game for 16 hours a day and running the TD meta everyday for 4 years

versus 1 person playing 1 account doing the TD meta once or twice a month playing for 9 years would be a terrible comparison

chak egg sac has only been in game for around 6 years so 4 years playing versus 9 is less of a difference than it seems

For precursors you need to separate counts for natural drops and ones from tossing things into the mystic forge.

There was a rumor waaaaaaay back caused by a completely unrelated game having such a thing  as a result of the programmers for that other game picking an inappropriate choice for seeding the random number generator. Could GW2 have the same bug? Absolutely. Does anyone have evidence that it does? Show it if you do.

[Vayne.8563]

Some people have used other methods to get things that aren't legit, which obviously can't be discussed on the forums. I doubt there are lucky accounts and I've played with hundreds of people.

[Ashantara.8731]

14 minutes ago, Khisanth.2948 said:

Why aren't you directing this claim for evidence at whoever is making the claims?

That's the next step, though I doubt they will be able to come up with any proof like, let's say, screenshots.

14 minutes ago, Khisanth.2948 said:

That aside, is this a claim about a single account or a single person?

A single account, plays a lot less than me, never farms - and no multiboxing involved.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Ashantara.8731

[Kurrilino.2706]

11 hours ago, Ashantara.8731 said:

An acquaintance of mine has had 6 Chak Infusions and several others dropped, as well as a couple of Invisible Boots boxes and tons of Precursors, and he has only been playing for ~4 years. Most accounts that were created on release can count themselves lucky if they have had one such drop in 9+ years.

I was told that ArenaNet, at one point, had attempted to implement a mechanic that rotates "luck drops" between accounts on some sort of timer, and that something went wrong there and now some people are stuck with such luck accounts while others have no luck at all. I couldn't imagine such a thing possible before, but now I wonder...

Is this true? If so, why has it not been fixed in all these years, as I don't think a broken implementation like that can be considered fair by any means? What is ArenaNet's stance on this?

 

This is a question for Tin Foil Tuesday.

 

 

[Ashantara.8731]

1 minute ago, Kurrilino.2706 said:

This is a question for Tin Foil Tuesday.

😅 Probably.

[Khisanth.2948]

Just for fun. This could be a convincing argument for GW2 having such a bug. One of the random number generators used by GW2 had a bug which caused

Quote

Then the tendency of non-randomness remains for long.

If taken out of context it could be used to claim support for an account having lucky/unlucky streaks.

 

[Sobx.1758]

11 hours ago, Ashantara.8731 said:

I was told that ArenaNet, at one point, had attempted to implement a mechanic that rotates "luck drops" between accounts on some sort of timer, and that something went wrong there and now some people are stuck with such luck accounts while others have no luck at all. I couldn't imagine such a thing possible before, but now I wonder...

Oooh this is my favorite totally-not-a-baseless-rumor type of """information""". 

Who were you told by about that and what exactly was the source of that person's information? (my guess is "from a friend" and "he's read/heard it somewhere", probably "doesn't remember from where/who")

[Randulf.7614]

I think in this case we can say that claimant was pulling the op’s leg. They are too outlandish a claim for even a lucky account should such a thing ever have existed (which of course they don’t)

 

Edited November 15, 2021 by Randulf.7614

[Randulf.7614]

On the plus side, I’m getting almost nostalgic for seeing a lucky account thread again after so many years

[Ashantara.8731]

5 minutes ago, Sobx.1758 said:

and what exactly was the source of that person's information?

Who knows? 😄

Seriously, that question is pointless since it has been already pointed out that it is inaccurate information. Don't blame the messenger, I was merely curious, since it sounded extremely "outlandish" (as Randulf said), and was not aware of the many previous threads there had been on the old forums.

Edited November 15, 2021 by Ashantara.8731
typo

[Sobx.1758]

2 minutes ago, Ashantara.8731 said:

Who knows? 😄

Seriously, that question is pointless since it has been already pointed out that it is inaccurate information. Don't blame the messanger, I was merely curious and not aware of the many previous threads there had been on the old forums.

Then why are you repeating this baseless kitten? 🤦‍♂️ 

Next time someone tells you another story like that, ask them what's their source instead of spreading it for them. (and with that said... you're not "the messanger", you're the rumor spreader 😉 )

Edited November 15, 2021 by Sobx.1758

[Ashantara.8731]

6 minutes ago, Sobx.1758 said:

Then why are you repeating this baseless kitten? 🤦‍♂️ 

1. I've edited my previous response shortly before you answered to clarify my reason behind it.

2. I am not "repeating the claim" but merely asked whether there had indeed been such a mechanic as described in the OP. Calm down.

Edit: The person is someone prominent in the community. It's not like I believe in unicorns. 😉

Edited November 15, 2021 by Ashantara.8731

[Sobx.1758]

10 minutes ago, Ashantara.8731 said:

1. I've edited my previous response shortly before you answered to clarify my reason behind it.

2. I am not "repeating the claim" but merely asked whether there had indeed been such a mechanic as described in the OP. Calm down.

Edit: The person is someone prominent in the community. It's not like I believe in unicorns. 😉

Then even moreso, ask for sources before spreading that bullkitten. I guess it's no longer someone as meaningful in the community as you think, when this is the type of story they come up with just to kitten with you (and possibly part of the community seeing how you went in to spread that claim without a second thought). 😄 

In case the main point is still somehow unclear: ask for source before spreading. 😁

Edited November 15, 2021 by Sobx.1758

[Ashantara.8731]

1 minute ago, Sobx.1758 said:

Then even moreso, ask for sources before spreading that bullkitten. I guess it's no longer someone as meaningful in the community as you think, when this is the type of story they come up with just to kitten with you

The person has made the same claim repeatedly in the presence of dozens of people on voice chat, so he wasn't out to "kitten me." Perhaps he even believes his own stories, which would be sad, but who am I to judge?

In any case, your tone is inappropriate as I wasn't spreading anything but merely had a question. I directed it privately to the game's support team at first, because I knew it would end this way, with someone acting up like that, if I posted it on here - but I was asked to post it on the forums instead, so yay to that.

[Sobx.1758]

9 minutes ago, Ashantara.8731 said:

The person has made the same claim repeatedly in the presence of dozens of people on voice chat, so he wasn't out to "kitten me." Perhaps he even believes his own stories, which would be sad, but who am I to judge?

In any case, your tone is inappropriate as I wasn't spreading anything but merely had a question. I directed it privately to the game's support team at first, because I knew it would end this way, with someone acting up like that, if I posted it on here - but I was asked to post it on the forums instead, so yay to that.

Cool, next time just ask that person where he got that information from. Not necessarily about what's in this thread, but on the off-chance of having any other outlandish "behind the scenes information" like that. I mean... I don't know if I can be any clearer here 😉 

Edited November 15, 2021 by Sobx.1758

[Meridian.4983]

I think I heard that rumor years ago, like 2013.

 While I’ve had pretty abysmal luck with drops (1 precursor drop since launch) my son just got the Hound of Balthazar warclaw skin and Mjonir via wardrobe unlock from a black lion chest.

Back to the grind, I wish you all better luck!

[Ashantara.8731]

11 minutes ago, Sobx.1758 said:

Cool, next time just ask that person where he got that information from.

Of course I asked him. Hello? What do you take me for? I only got vague answers (like "The devs once stated [...]"), so excuse me for preferring to ask independent people instead who might have information on this topic, like links to actual official statements.

Since my question has been answered hours ago, there is no need for me to keep sticking around and listening to you lecturing me on how to do things properly.

9 minutes ago, Meridian.4983 said:

Back to the grind, I wish you all better luck!

Hah hah, you too! 😅

Edited November 15, 2021 by Ashantara.8731

[Debesyla.7102]

10 hours ago, kharmin.7683 said:

I see dead people.

Are you currently in Orr? 😉

[Rogue.8235]

9 hours ago, Blude.6812 said:

Actually I remember that they talked about outlier accounts and some have them but Anet have never addressed the issue.

Of course there are outliers.  It is virtually impossible to have no statistical variance whatsoever where mathematical entropy is involved.  Many many people are subject to confirmation bias and the gambler's fallacy as well.   See also apophenia.

Also see the inverse gambler's fallacy.

Essentially, the human mind isn't good at comprehending randomization and instead seeks to find patterns.  This is an evolutionary trait as pattern recognition is extremely vital to survival (think back to hunter/gatherer society).  

While the law of large numbers does state that eventually all accounts will  consistently reach the expected value (see also central limit theorem), the number of instances of randomization (such as loot drops) is unfathomably large.

So yes, there, statistically, are outliers in the probability distribution of accounts in GW2, as there are with almost every probability distribution (except uniform distribution).

That does not mean there is anything to fix.  That is simply a mathematical law of nature.

 

Why yes, I have played since the betas and have yet to see a precursor or infusion drop, ever.  How'd you guess?

😛

 

Edit:

4 hours ago, Blude.6812 said:

Right! it was archived , but they did seem to agree that there are unlucky accounts.

 

The explanation for this is the same as the above.  There are outliers in almost every probability distribution.  If there weren't, then we'd have uniform distribution.  That means that every drop is equally probable all the time with no variance.  You would be as likely to get glob of globby goo as you would Dawn.  Over time and extreme repetitions, you would have stacks of every item in the game.

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by Rogue.8235

[Hashberry.4510]

If you had just kept all those Teq spoons in your inventory the epic drops would come out your ears (nods).