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Question about so-called "Luck Accounts"


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Edit: The question has been answered a while ago: No need to comment any further - thanks. 😉

We see patterns in clouds.

First time I hear about ANet trying to implement something with luck that backfired leaving some accounts "luckier" than others. My bet is you are being had by your acquaintance. Words are cheap.

6 hours ago, Rogue.8235 said:

The explanation for this is the same as the above.  There are outliers in almost every probability distribution.  If there weren't, then we'd have uniform distribution.  That means that every drop is equally probable all the time with no variance.  You would be as likely to get glob of globby goo as you would Dawn.  Over time and extreme repetitions, you would have stacks of every item in the game.

Actually, even in such a case you'd get variance. You would always get it whenever probability is involved. The only way to not have "lucky" and "unlucky" (so, outlier) accounts would be if the system did not use any RNG at all, and was working in a way similar, to say, wvw/SPvP/Map reward tracks (where you'd get specific items every X kills/actions/time/participation points) with no RNG bags/drops on that track at all.

Basically, it is not the existence, but the lack of lucky/unlucky accounts that tells you there's something very fishy going on with RNG.

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I can understand why people believe these rumours, humans want to believe there is a system in place of just random luck, it's why conspiracy theories are so effective.

 

With regards to GW2 though I can say that as a player who has been here since beta (and gw1), I have never had a precursor drop. I had quite a few from mystic toilet but no drops. That molten alliance jetpack, I farmed that event for several hours each day to get it and saw 2 others get it but not me. I play near daily and have yet to see a single 'drop' worth over 200g even with max luck.

There is a theory that fresh accounts get more item luck than long term ones with more in their luck stat. The wife got a bear box from strikes and a precursor in the same week, it was her first time ever doing strikes too. She also had another rare drop but I forgot what it was. A friend of mine within his first 2 months got 4-5 BL exclusives from the chests using keys he got from levelling characters. I saw him wearing the items so I believe him.

 

They could be lucky accounts or they could have beginners luck, or we could just be seeing a pattern where we want to see one. Hard to say without confirmation from a Dev on exactly how it works and that ain't gonna happen.

Edited by Turial.1293
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As an aside, this Halloween I believe I got 1 weapon drop this year and for every other previous year I had had at least 10 drop each year without fail. Roughly the same amount of bags, ~5000+ so does this mean I am lucky/unlucky or does it mean they can review drop rates and change them whenever they like?

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14 hours ago, Ashantara.8731 said:

Of course I asked him. Hello? What do you take me for?

Oh hello! I don't need to take you for anything, initially you've simply responded with "Who knows? 😄" when asked where he got that information from. So if you're getting some vague non-responses, it probably means "your source" has no actual source. 😉 

Edited by Sobx.1758
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Personally I find complaining helps a lot with drops. I was *just* about to complain how it was no longer worth doing Matriarch but then the game toss out a Spark as if to say "Shut up, I know what you were about to write"

This has worked for collection items as well! 😛

Speaking of luck though, how many people have gotten an ascended box from an Airship Cargo? Could probably include the AB/TD/DS equivalents. I have only ever gotten one and while it isn't the most valuable it is probably the rarest.

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15 hours ago, Turial.1293 said:

As an aside, this Halloween I believe I got 1 weapon drop this year and for every other previous year I had had at least 10 drop each year without fail. Roughly the same amount of bags, ~5000+ so does this mean I am lucky/unlucky or does it mean they can review drop rates and change them whenever they like?

Central Limit Theorem

Law of Large Numbers (more specifically the strong  the strong law)

 

as for finding meaning in these "lucky" or "unlucky" accounts or "changes" in "luck"

Law of Truly Large Numbers

Gambler's Fallacy   

From Investopedia:

Quote

The most famous example of gambler's fallacy occurred at the Monte Carlo casino in Las Vegas in 1913. The roulette wheel's ball had fallen on black several times in a row. This led people to believe that it would fall on red soon and they started pushing their chips, betting that the ball would fall in a red square on the next roulette wheel turn. The ball fell on the red square after 27 turns. Accounts state that millions of dollars had been lost by then.

 

For a demonstration that randomization really is just random see also:

The transitive fallacy for randomized trials: If A bests B and B bests C in separate trials, is A better than C?

 

 

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11 hours ago, Rogue.8235 said:

Central Limit Theorem

Law of Large Numbers (more specifically the strong  the strong law)

 

as for finding meaning in these "lucky" or "unlucky" accounts or "changes" in "luck"

Law of Truly Large Numbers

Gambler's Fallacy   

From Investopedia:

 

For a demonstration that randomization really is just random see also:

The transitive fallacy for randomized trials: If A bests B and B bests C in separate trials, is A better than C?

 

 

Lol my questions were rhetorical but thanks for providing the data. My point was that we see patterns but it does not mean there is some conspiracy theory about lucky accounts.

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RNG is quite random. I have an account with 8000+ hours played on it. I used to grumble that I never got any precursor drop.

 

But this year when the Twisted Marionette was released I suddenly noticed I had an "Invisible boot box" added to my inventory. First thing I thought: "Oh, ANet must have added it as new account-bound drop to make it less rare." (As the box itself is account-bound) But when I selected one of the options, I realized it was the real, tradable thing. I couldn't believe it. But here it was.

 

So, if you have terrible luck, it's not all lost. I'm not complaining anymore about precursor drops. Even tho I never got one dropped.

Just don't farm for it. You will get disappointed if you do.

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Here's an interesting read.

 

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

 

I remember observing in WoW that mobs would get streaks of blocks or dodges versus my attacks.  This happened so many times that it seem more likely to be a result of patterns in a pseudo-random results generator, than any truly random system.

 

That said, I seem to recall a forum post about GW2 drop tables made on the old boards, lo these many years gone by.  If correct, there can be multiple "rolls" for every chance.  For example, you get a random drop from a mob.  First, there is  a roll to determine whether the drop is common, uncommon or rare.  Once that's determined, there are separate tables for each option.  Then, once that gets cleared up, another roll determines the specific item.  I tend to believe this, because truly rare drops, like Precursors, are so rare that some players have never gotten one, and needing to get "lucky" on multiple tables is orders of magnitude less likely than just getting the 1:100, 1:1000, etc. chance on a single roll.

 

And, I may be completely wrong.  GW2 may use a truly random generator, and may not use multiple tables.

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11 hours ago, Turial.1293 said:

Lol my questions were rhetorical but thanks for providing the data. My point was that we see patterns but it does not mean there is some conspiracy theory about lucky accounts.

Of course not.  The real conspiracy is that some accounts are intentionally predisposed to always be one shot by a mesmer or thief 100% of the time.  Obviously.  😱

 

28 minutes ago, IndigoSundown.5419 said:

Here's an interesting read.

 

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

 

I remember observing in WoW that mobs would get streaks of blocks or dodges versus my attacks.  This happened so many times that it seem more likely to be a result of patterns in a pseudo-random results generator, than any truly random system.

 

That said, I seem to recall a forum post about GW2 drop tables made on the old boards, lo these many years gone by.  If correct, there can be multiple "rolls" for every chance.  For example, you get a random drop from a mob.  First, there is  a roll to determine whether the drop is common, uncommon or rare.  Once that's determined, there are separate tables for each option.  Then, once that gets cleared up, another roll determines the specific item.  I tend to believe this, because truly rare drops, like Precursors, are so rare that some players have never gotten one, and needing to get "lucky" on multiple tables is orders of magnitude less likely than just getting the 1:100, 1:1000, etc. chance on a single roll.

 

And, I may be completely wrong.  GW2 may use a truly random generator, and may not use multiple tables.

 

I'm not sure if truly random systems are a thing yet.  Someone way smarter than me can explain why, but to my understanding we'd need to be able to utilize q-bits (quantum computing) before we can actually develop truly random systems.  The data must exist in all forms simultaneously before being called by a function (I think).

Again, someone with more knowledge in this specific area can explain.

 

We can get close enough to truly random for "good enough" status.  

 

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On 11/16/2021 at 7:37 PM, Rogue.8235 said:

Central Limit Theorem

Law of Large Numbers (more specifically the strong  the strong law)

 

as for finding meaning in these "lucky" or "unlucky" accounts or "changes" in "luck"

Law of Truly Large Numbers

Gambler's Fallacy   

From Investopedia:

 

For a demonstration that randomization really is just random see also:

The transitive fallacy for randomized trials: If A bests B and B bests C in separate trials, is A better than C?

 

 

If you see a roullette wheel spinning predominately on Black, the hop on and bet black until they change the dealer.

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4 hours ago, IndigoSundown.5419 said:

Here's an interesting read.

 

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

 

I remember observing in WoW that mobs would get streaks of blocks or dodges versus my attacks.  This happened so many times that it seem more likely to be a result of patterns in a pseudo-random results generator, than any truly random system.

 

That said, I seem to recall a forum post about GW2 drop tables made on the old boards, lo these many years gone by.  If correct, there can be multiple "rolls" for every chance.  For example, you get a random drop from a mob.  First, there is  a roll to determine whether the drop is common, uncommon or rare.  Once that's determined, there are separate tables for each option.  Then, once that gets cleared up, another roll determines the specific item.  I tend to believe this, because truly rare drops, like Precursors, are so rare that some players have never gotten one, and needing to get "lucky" on multiple tables is orders of magnitude less likely than just getting the 1:100, 1:1000, etc. chance on a single roll.

 

And, I may be completely wrong.  GW2 may use a truly random generator, and may not use multiple tables.

I can't remember where I read this, but how the game actually works is very similar.  The game goes through ever increasing roulette wheels, where it decides whether to award its current item rarity, or promote to the next one.  So, to get a precursor item, it would go like this:

 

Win the roll to get an item.

Win the roll to get out of white tier

Win the roll to get out of common tier

Win the roll to get out of uncommon tier

Win the roll to get out of rare tier

Fail the roll to get out of exotic tier

Have the roll land on "weapon" instead of something else.

Have the roll land on the precursor weapon, which is roughly 1 out of 126.

 

Magic Find raises the chances of getting the promotion roll.  At obscenely high levels of magic find, you'll no longer get blues.  The promotion roll goes up to 100%.  

 

 

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21 hours ago, IndigoSundown.5419 said:

Here's an interesting read.

 

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

 

I remember observing in WoW that mobs would get streaks of blocks or dodges versus my attacks.  This happened so many times that it seem more likely to be a result of patterns in a pseudo-random results generator, than any truly random system.

 

That said, I seem to recall a forum post about GW2 drop tables made on the old boards, lo these many years gone by.  If correct, there can be multiple "rolls" for every chance.  For example, you get a random drop from a mob.  First, there is  a roll to determine whether the drop is common, uncommon or rare.  Once that's determined, there are separate tables for each option.  Then, once that gets cleared up, another roll determines the specific item.  I tend to believe this, because truly rare drops, like Precursors, are so rare that some players have never gotten one, and needing to get "lucky" on multiple tables is orders of magnitude less likely than just getting the 1:100, 1:1000, etc. chance on a single roll.

 

And, I may be completely wrong.  GW2 may use a truly random generator, and may not use multiple tables.

First, the anectode brought up in the linked post is suspicious. I don't know Aion RNG system, but it would have to be extremely badly written in order to create the results as described. I mean, really, really, really badly written.

Sure, pseudorandom generators used in games indeed are deterministic in nature, and so, theoretically, you can indeed predict their results. That requires however for two assumptions to be true:

First, the whole pattern needs to be either repeatable, and short enough so you can actually see it, or it needs to follow some simple principles where you are able to calculate the next value in order on your own. Most pseudo-RNG generators are neither simple, nor do they produce short patterns.

Second (and this is actually a far bigger issue), in order to be able to predict the results, you need to be able to perfectly control all the input into the algorithm.

No, generally the algorithms do not create just a list of "rng numbers" for you they advance through everytime you make a roll. Some RNG generators in very old single player games did work like that, but even then it wasn't all that common. More usually, beyond the initial "seed" for the RNG calculations, there are other variable input sources (one used quite often is time - which, if you use it down to miliseconds becomes something beyond your control). Additionally, what you seem to forget is that MMORPG does RNG calculations for more than one player, so, even without the unpredictable inputs like time clock, all that is needed to make all your predictions fail is for rng system to make a roll for someone else without your knowledge, just before it did it for you.

Also, yes, the GW2 system does work on multiple tables, but it is pretty much irrelevant towards drop chances. There's no real difference in drop chances between having to roll a 10% chance three times in a row, or having to roll a 0.1% chance once. Both things are still going to happen with comparable frequency.

In short, yes, the RNG algorithms are still deterministic in nature, but as long as they're written well enough, they are effectively idistinguishable from true RNG in all things that matter. And have been for many, many years already.

And as for you seeing "streaks", that's completely normal. The chance to flip tails 10 times in a row is 1 in 1024. Make thousands of people flip coins, and this is going to happen to someone very fast. Make tens of thousands of coin flips, and you're going to see it. Make thousands of people flip coins, and this is likely to happen to someone on their very first 10 flips. make tens of thousands of people make thousands of coin flips, and you will see it happen on pretty much constant basis.

Like with "lucky" and "unlucky" accounts - if you never see any streaks, that is the time you can suspect the RNG is not really random at all. Because practically the ony way it can happen is when something actively prevents those streaks from occuring.

 

Edited by Astralporing.1957
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I linked to earlier posts by John Smith to answer the original question and I see more discussion now relating to RNG.   Here is a thread  started by him back in 2014.  Note it is more a community discussion.   But since so many seem interested in the topic I thought I would link it.  22 pages, happy reading:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss

Edit:  Interesting to see some people in that thread I have not seen post for awhile. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by JustTrogdor.7892
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https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/page/16#post4698267

He excellently summarized the issue.  It's extremely simplified but good enough for discussion.  that post should be the starting point for RNG discussions.

Quote

At the heart, there’s 3 basic options:
1. Mostly RNG
2. No RNG
3. Hyrbid RNG (where most games are)

starter concepts for cons of each system:

1. Many players can feel like they have “bad luck”, in fact players with standard to pretty good luck are still likely to feel bad because of how humans interpret data.

2. A completely predictable experience lacks moments when something fantastic happens.

3. You run the risk of getting the cons of both systems without very precise design

An important question may be to ask if a model is still a good concept and a great implementation just needs to be focused on or if the model doesn’t work fundamentally.

Important Follow-up by him: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/page/16#post4698267

Quote
Quote

Chobiko.9182:

I am sure one can come up with better solutions than these 3 John.

These aren’t solutions, they’re concepts that would be the framework behind a solution.

Quote

One thing that’s bothersome about all the feedback is that the overwhelming majority can’t stand it in it’s current form. But yet the devs continue to implement it as is.

Obligatory note that this statement has no factual backing in two senses. That being said, I began this thread because I wanted to open discussion on the fact. I wouldn’t continue it in this fashion if I didn’t agree that there could be superior systems.

I know it’s hard to imagine, but working in video games there is often a LARGE investment into changes. It’s not something that can happen overnight. I ask for lenience in this, it isn’t that we aren’t listening or not working, we are, really hard. I firmly believe this game has gotten better and better and better and it’s going to be better and better and better than it is now.

 

Edited by Rogue.8235
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It is not true. It's just a meme.

 

Whenever anyone has any luck, since nobody ever has any luck due to the tragically dull drop rates and no system to guaranteed something actually decent once in a while, and no real systems to reward higher participation in events and event mechanics, people joke they they got 'flagged as a lucky account'.

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