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Question about so-called "Luck Accounts"


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Platypuses exist. That doesn’t make them lucky, evolutionarily. It just makes them on the edge of the distribution.

An account may have gotten an unusual number of rare drops, but for it to be lucky you’d have to somehow show that it would continue to get them. Otherwise, they’re just at one end of the bell curve.

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Edit: The question has been answered a while ago: No need to comment any further - thanks. 😉

First time I hear about ANet trying to implement something with luck that backfired leaving some accounts "luckier" than others. My bet is you are being had by your acquaintance. Words are cheap.

We see patterns in clouds.

On 11/23/2021 at 1:48 PM, Astralporing.1957 said:

If you were to check for the "most lucky" accounts, you'd definitely find that most of them belong to people that do a lot of farming.

 

Which is well and all but it doesn't change player perception. If someone feels like they are not getting rewarded for the work they put in, and we're talking about proper methodical farming here and not just meandering about on empty maps or doing jumping puzzles, then they will likely not stick around to do more of it. Same thing with the Black Lion chests. If someone regularly dumps cash into them but repeatedly walks away with nothing really valuable, they will stop buying them.

 

The first case means less people tackling content across the board because it's unrewarding. The second case means less cash spent.

 

Gambling isn't inherently evil and RNG isn't an inherently wrong way of reward distribution but you have to throw a bone to all players every now and again if you want to keep them hooked and engaging with your content in sufficient numbers to attract more players to it. Rewards being incredibly unrewarding is a major complaint surrounding this game since pretty much its launch. 

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6 hours ago, ewenness.6482 said:

Which is well and all but it doesn't change player perception. If someone feels like they are not getting rewarded for the work they put in, and we're talking about proper methodical farming here and not just meandering about on empty maps or doing jumping puzzles, then they will likely not stick around to do more of it.

Proper methodical farming in this game is very rewarding, even when you do not count on any extra lucky drops. If you don't feel that, it's likely precisely because you never stick long enough to see that.

And as for lack of luck, it's partially self-inflicted as well. Apart from ultra-rare drops, "being lucky" in this game is, in reality, 10% luck, 90% persistence. Basically, you can't get lucky if you don't even try.

Most of so-called "lucky accounts" are just accounts of players that roll the dice way more times than the "unlucky" ones.

 

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11 hours ago, Astralporing.1957 said:

Proper methodical farming in this game is very rewarding, even when you do not count on any extra lucky drops. If you don't feel that, it's likely precisely because you never stick long enough to see that.

 

I'm asking this without any sarcasm or intent to antagonise. What IS long enough time spent on farming to hit that very rewarding threshold? Genuinely curious. I'm no stranger to sitting down for multiple hour long grind sessions and I do it enjoy that kind of gameplay loop when I just want to chill after work but still have my brain engaged to some degree. However, I won't claim that I do it every day. 

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On 11/24/2021 at 11:06 AM, Astralporing.1957 said:

I will try to explain in very simple way where the problem in your reasoning is.

Let's use, for illustration, your examples of "Slow Ron", "Fast Harry", and do the comparison with roulette

Let's just say, that Harry's results fall within the +4 to +12 pockets range. Ron's within +10 to +30 range.

You seem to think, that this will give an advantage to one of them, because one of those ranges will contain better potential set of values than the other. There are two problems with this.

First, the starting point for Harry and Ron (the "zero" point) is not the same. It's X+4 to X+12 versus Y+10 to Y+30. Second, not only the starting point is not the same, but at the moment each of them is rolling the values in the pockets on roulette board may be different (as the RNG thread might have already been restarted with different starting seed).

So, at one specific situation, this might give an advantage to Harry - but next time that advantage might shift to Ron. So, while in theory the system might introduce a bias, the bias itself will be shifting and changing constantly, becoming in practice just another random element in the mix.

Whill i agree with most of what you have written, their are moments where you "guarantuee" the same startingpoint. That is with the killing of a specific boss. (gerent, raidbosses etc.) So it that case the advantage does not nessecarily shift.

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