The Boz.2038 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I do the Tequatl event nearly every day, at least six times a week, and have been doing so for over a year now. It used to be a steady way of getting ascended weapons for my toons. The wiki suggests an ascended weapon box drops for a participating player ~3% of the time, and my own experience used to confirm exactly that: I'd get an ascended box about once per month. However, the last time I got an ascended drop from the event was around the 20th of July. That's about 150 days ago, during which I have done the meta at least 120 times. Going 90 or a hundred days on 0 drops was a bit suspicious, but a full 150? That's getting a bit extreme. Is it possible it's not dropping ascended boxes because I have unopened ascended boxes in my bank? 2 7 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheQuickFox.3826 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said: [...] Is it possible it's not dropping ascended boxes because I have unopened ascended boxes in my bank? No, that's not how it works. You can safely keep your ascended boxes unopened in bank without it affecting your future drop rate. It's probably bad luck. The other option would be that the drop rate was changed by ArenaNet but I think it is just plain old bad luck. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Boz.2038 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 If it is bad luck, man, my entire account must be *entirely cursed*. 3400 hours, 0 precursor drops, really (really!) rotten luck with the mystic coin conversion... the only thing I ever got worth over 100GP is the healing winter's heart infusion. 1 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katastroff.1045 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 If i was you, i would sacrificed a chicken to the RNG god. Works every time for me. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuchslein.8639 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 (edited) In my early days I did Teq and all the other world bosses every day and the worm 1 time a week in an organized group. In one year I had one Asc drop from the worm, nothing else. That is just RNG. With your Asc-drops and the Infusion drop you have more luck as the most people i know, who play this game since launch ^^. Edited December 21, 2021 by Fuchslein.8639 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sobx.1758 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Boz.2038 said: If it is bad luck, man, my entire account must be *entirely cursed*. 3400 hours, 0 precursor drops, really (really!) rotten luck with the mystic coin conversion... the only thing I ever got worth over 100GP is the healing winter's heart infusion. How is it "entirely cursed", when you literally said you were consistently getting "the average drop" this whole time? Seems like the usual: rng on my side? Everything's k. Rng not on my side? Rigged/cursed account/anet changed drop rates. But that's not how rng works. Averages are averages, but the deviations from the expected drop rate are perfectly normal, which is also pretty much why we use "averages" to assess drop rates in the first place. Edited December 21, 2021 by Sobx.1758 11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtpelion.4562 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 You need a large sample size to approach the target chance in real life. For a 99.999% confidence in a 3% drop rate, you'd need about 5,700 days of Teq. Essentially, yes, you are on a bad luck streak, which is expected from time to time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phokus.8934 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I flipped a coin 50 times and it has always landed heads. I think my coin is cursed to not flip tails. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bish.8627 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 8400 hours played, no precursor, nightly Teq/Karka/Leyline reset with KVO for years rarely missing a night because I have no life, I have only had a few Teq chests, I have had quite a few other stats. There was one spell I was getting one nearly every night in a week, I think 5. 1 of those was Teq stats. It's just really random, you will go a spell without getting one and it seems like a long long time, then suddenly you get one, and 3 other stat weapon chests. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omega.6801 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Random drops are random, I know, unsatisfying isn't it. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Boz.2038 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 52 minutes ago, Sobx.1758 said: this whole time? Well, considering "this whole time" is "the average seems to be about half what I actually should be getting", then sure, everything's k. Reading comprehension. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeTect.5918 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Its just that rng is..... Never got any infusion from a chest, once got a precursor for 80 Gold and thats it. U actually have more luck than me. But yes its really frustrating when u see ur friends getting big loot. Like one friend got chaos sword (200 gold) a few days ago and yesterday got Winters heart infusion. Then also getting precursor for 300 Gold and so on. Its just bad luck. Its how rng works, some people are lucky, some not. Its not really fair sometimes but get over it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mythical.6315 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 It’s just RNG. You have been doing Teq about a year and it looks like half the year you got consistent drops and the other half you did not. What makes you think that there’s something wrong with the drop rate since July when you could have just been lucky instead for the first part of the year when you got the drops? You should also know that 3% is average across a substantially large data set. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashantara.8731 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, The Boz.2038 said: If it is bad luck, man, my entire account must be *entirely cursed*. Trust me, many players are in the same boat as you. This game's drop rates are abysmal... or at least extremely weird (I can say I have had tons of ascended drops since I no longer need them due to the legendary armory ... if only I had had that luck before 😄). Edited December 22, 2021 by Ashantara.8731 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blude.6812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, mythical.6315 said: It’s just RNG. You have been doing Teq about a year and it looks like half the year you got consistent drops and the other half you did not. What makes you think that there’s something wrong with the drop rate since July when you could have just been lucky instead for the first part of the year when you got the drops? You should also know that 3% is average across a substantially large data set. It's known as an outlier account, and apparently they are quite a few of them. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sobx.1758 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Boz.2038 said: Well, considering "this whole time" is "the average seems to be about half what I actually should be getting", then sure, everything's k. Reading comprehension. This is what you've wrote: "The wiki suggests an ascended weapon box drops for a participating player ~3% of the time, and my own experience used to confirm exactly that: I'd get an ascended box about once per month." So what exactly are you talking about now? And while we're speaking of "reading comprehension", if you read and understand what I (and other people in this thread) wrote in the previous post, you'd stop pretending you somehow "should be getting" anything here. Edited December 21, 2021 by Sobx.1758 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mythical.6315 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 52 minutes ago, Blude.6812 said: It's known as an outlier account, and apparently they are quite a few of them. Their sample size is too small to suggest that they’re an outlier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nosleepdemon.1368 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 hours ago, phokus.8934 said: I flipped a coin 50 times and it has always landed heads. I think my coin is cursed to not flip tails. At 8x10-¹⁶ odds yeah, I'd be wondering about that coin tbh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khisanth.2948 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Claims about statistics without any data to back it up is less useful than a literal pile of trash. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Boz.2038 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Sobx.1758 said: So what exactly are you talking about now? On the average for the year, it's about half the drop rate. Clear now? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertthebard.8150 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I must be really cursed, all I've ever gotten is the "grats for not dying" boxes... 😋 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sobx.1758 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, The Boz.2038 said: On the average for the year, it's about half the drop rate. Clear now? No, in light of your initial claim about getting the amount of drops wiki specifies as "average", it still isn't clear what you're trying to say. "this whole time" means the "whole period of time where you've concluded your drop rate was equal to the expected average". If you consistently kept getting "the average", then your account isn't somehow "cursed" just because you start seeing drop chance deviations, which are expected due to the nature of randomness. Hence: 9 hours ago, Sobx.1758 said: Seems like the usual: rng on my side? Everything's k. Rng not on my side? Rigged/cursed account/anet changed drop rates. But that's not how rng works. Averages are averages, but the deviations from the expected drop rate are perfectly normal, which is also pretty much why we use "averages" to assess drop rates in the first place. Edited December 21, 2021 by Sobx.1758 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuks.8241 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Shouldnt it also depend on the magic find, at least partly if its direct drop? So if you have low magic find you should be below average. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mythical.6315 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cuks.8241 said: Shouldnt it also depend on the magic find, at least partly if its direct drop? So if you have low magic find you should be below average. Magic find doesn’t affect chests unless explicitly stated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuks.8241 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, mythical.6315 said: Magic find doesn’t affect chests unless explicitly stated. Yeah I know, just not sure if it's also possible to drop Hoard for example as a direct drop or not and where that 3 % actually comes from. 3 % also seems very high to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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