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Suspicious streak of bad luck with Tequatl


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30 minutes ago, Inculpatus cedo.9234 said:

Then, perhaps, with so few 'data sets' one should not ignore the latter half of one's own data set (to come up with a different total percentage).  🤷‍♂️

I'm not trying to ignore it. I'm trying to see if anyone here in the community is running any kind of dataset on this with better numbers, more precision, etc.

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I do the Tequatl event nearly every day, at least six times a week, and have been doing so for over a year now. It used to be a steady way of getting ascended weapons for my toons. The wiki suggests a

How is it "entirely cursed", when you literally said you were consistently getting "the average drop" this whole time? Seems like the usual: rng on my side? Everything's k. Rng not on my side? Ri

Hello Everyone, I'm locking this thread as it has turned into bickering.   Regards. ☃️

2 hours ago, The Boz.2038 said:

Have you met tenses before? Do you understand how they work? Can you comprehend how the sentence "it used to be like this, but now it is no longer like that" works?

Yes. And do you uderstand that you had a long period of time that resulted in you concluding you keep consistenly getting the average amount of drops (compared to wiki numbers, which are still barely an estimaation more than anything else), which by itself removes your later assumptions about being some "cursed account" and there's nothing suspicious about devations from the "average" drop rates? If you don't understand how "random chance" works, then read up instead of somehow trying to blame it on my reading comperehension.

 

2 hours ago, The Boz.2038 said:

The start here is a present simple again, which then continues again into a past perfect; "...used to confirm...". Now, I understand that the construct "I'd get an" is initially confusing, but it is in actuality a common past participle. Still talking about the past here, with the context clearly framing it as past perfect: used to be, but no longer is.

(...)

Do you now understand how the entire dataset indicates less than average yields? Do you still claim that "getting what seems to be the exact average" is lucky?

How can you try and pretend I somehow have trouble with understanding that post when I already wrote this:

https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/topic/106238-suspicious-streak-of-bad-luck-with-tequatl/?tab=comments#comment-1538457

No, in light of your initial claim about getting the amount of drops wiki specifies as "average", it still isn't clear what you're trying to say. "this whole time" means the "whole period of time where you've concluded your drop rate was equal to the expected average". If you consistently kept getting "the average", then your account isn't somehow "cursed" just because you start seeing drop chance deviations, which are expected due to the nature of randomness.

 

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55 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

So... seven months average, five months nothing, and you conclude from that "it's entirely average"?
Wow.
Impressive.

Yes. I guess "cursed account", "anet suddenly changed ascended drop rates from that one -already far from overperforming- source" or "what I have in my storage changes the drop rates!" somehow makes more sense 🤷‍♂️ 

(btw, I didn't say "this is entirely average", I said "this is entirely normal/expected")

 

v

1 hour ago, Sobx.1758 said:

If you don't understand how "random chance" works, then read up instead of somehow trying to blame it on my reading comperehension.

 

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OK, I'll give you a shot.
How would you like a player to resolve a discrpancy they are clearly seeing, on a statistically seemingly significant sample size?Because, according to you, clearly, going to the forums is them "not understanding random chance".
A 3% drop rate event has a 2% chance of generating a 120-event streak of no drops.

P.S.

You still don't understand how "half average, half none" doesn't equal average, lol.

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7 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

OK, I'll give you a shot.
How would you like a player to resolve a discrpancy they are clearly seeing, on a statistically seemingly significant sample size?Because, according to you, clearly, going to the forums is them "not understanding random chance".
A 3% drop rate event has a 2% chance of generating a 120-event streak of no drops.

If something has 3% drop chance, it absolutely doesn't mean that every player will get it at that exact rate. You don't seem to understand "random chance" and "averages".

And who said there's anything to "resolve" here? You, because you assume you deserve to get more drops? That sure would be convenient, but it doesn't make it correct.

Quote

P.S.

You still don't understand how "half average, half none" doesn't equal average, lol.

You still don't understand you're arguing against something I never wrote. And then you're trying to point to my "reading comprehension issues"? 😄  

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Why put words in my mouth? Are you now claiming to read my mind?

The item to be resolved is the question. A player notices a discrepancy between what's the expected drop rate, what's their personal experience of the drop rate, and the drop rate they've been getting for the past five months.

The question to be resolved is "has anyone had this experience with this"? And since my attempt at resolving it was going to the forums, yes, it turns out people have had real kitten luck with Tequatl drops. 

You're trying to cram a "I deserve more loot" into my mouth real hard, while ignoring the obvious.

Meanwhile, your first post here is:
"you literally said you were consistently getting "the average drop" this whole time?"
Something I never said. This is clearly indicating you have no idea what period the average drop referred to. I tried three times to explain to you how a fairly simple post works, and what it signifies. Care to try again?

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8 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

Why put words in my mouth? Are you now claiming to read my mind?

Which ones?

Quote

The item to be resolved is the question. A player notices a discrepancy between what's the expected drop rate, what's their personal experience of the drop rate, and the drop rate they've been getting for the past five months.

The question to be resolved is "has anyone had this experience with this"? And since my attempt at resolving it was going to the forums, yes, it turns out people have had real kitten luck with Tequatl drops.

You've asked the question, you received the answers, but since you dislike the answer, you're still here arguing. So it's not really even a question, more just you looking to solidify your opinion you already made before reading any answer in the first place. If answers were all you wanted, then it seems you already received enough of them. Then why do you keep arguing against them?

Quote

You're trying to cram a "I deserve more loot" into my mouth real hard, while ignoring the obvious.

The only reason I somehow "try to cram it" (but not really) here is because of what I wrote above: you claim you want the answers, but all you do is argue against the ones you received. And then you argue there's "something to resolve" based on you not getting more loot 🤷‍♂️

_________

8 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

Meanwhile, your first post here is:

"you literally said you were consistently getting "the average drop" this whole time?"
Something I never said. This is clearly indicating you have no idea what period the average drop referred to. I tried three times to explain to you how a fairly simple post works, and what it signifies. Care to try again?

Relevant part of you initial claim: "The wiki suggests an ascended weapon box drops for a participating player ~3% of the time, and my own experience used to confirm exactly that: I'd get an ascended box about once per month." 

Relevant part of my posts where I've already clarified to you what "this whole time means" multiple times, yet you keep ignoring it for some reason: No, in light of your initial claim about getting the amount of drops wiki specifies as "average", it still isn't clear what you're trying to say. "this whole time" means the "whole period of time where you've concluded your drop rate was equal to the expected average".

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7 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

We've been over tenses before. I really don't want to go through them again.

But please, go and edit your posts after they've been replied to some more. 

What did I edit? Added the last quote to explain how you repeatedly ignored the explanation just so you can pretend I didn't understand something I already clarified multiple times?

Facts too hard, better dodge though. Stop pretending you're looking for answers when all you do is argue against them anyways 🙋‍♂️

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26 minutes ago, The Boz.2038 said:

If you can't discuss like an adult, I guess I'm done with you.

So you completely dodge the whole post after pretending I didn't understand something I already repeatedly explained and that somehow makes me not being able to discuss like an adult? Convenient take.

Stop pretending you're looking for answers when all you do is argue against them anyways.

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Already linked what you dodged and you dodged again, what's the point of asking this question again?

As I said, the only thing that was added "post reply" (or more like while you were replying) there was the last quote. It's nothing more than your attempt to keep dodging what was said while pretending that's not what you're doing.

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Ah yes, keep dodging and namecalling. If you actually want me to reiterate any point, first you need to specify which one. But you refuse to do that since you don't want to respond to the last post I've linked in the first place. And apparently somehow -in your mind- that makes me a troll. 🤷‍♂️

 

But hey, since answers were all you wanted and that's exactly what you've already got, I guess this thread ran it's course after you finally stopped arguing against them and reverted to... this, whatever it is you're currently doing.

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