SoulGuardian.6203 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 If you are a mathematics genious and expert, I have a question for you about probability. Say you want to buy a 5 randomly picked mounts out of a possible 15. 2 Raptors 2 Bunnies 2 skimmers 2 Jackals 4 beetles 3 gryphons Let's say for instance, what are the probabilities of getting a beetle skin? You have 5 chances. I know it's a hard question, but I am really bad at maths generally, and hope someone can help me make the decision to go for 5 random ones or just straight get the select licence one. Thanks in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

Jijimuge.4675 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 It's fairly straightforward, but just to confirm what you mean, you're asking what are the odds of getting *at least* one beetle skin? I'm assuming that you're asking re any one of the 4 beetle skins in your list rather than 1 specific beetle skin, btw. If so, the probability can best be looked at as 100% minus the chance of getting no beetle skin on any of your random rolls. For the first roll, your chance of getting no beetle skin is 11/15 = 73.3% (as there are 15 potential mounts, and 11 of them are non-beetles) For the 2nd roll, you've used up one of the non-beetle skins, but there are also 14 skins in total left to choose from, so the odds of getting no beetle skin on your second roll are 10/14 = 71.4% One can go on with rolls 3, 4 and 5 to get odds of 9/13, 8/12 and 7/11 respectively So the odds of getting *no* beetle skins at all with 5 rolls is 11/15 x 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 7/11 = appx 15.4% Thus, the odds of getting *at least* one beetle skin are 100% minus 15.4% = approx 84.6%, which is the chance you were looking for. Of course, there's also a chance that you get 2 or beetle skins through this process, but that's another calculation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

SoulGuardian.6203 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Jijimuge.4675 said: It's fairly straightforward, but just to confirm what you mean, you're asking what are the odds of getting *at least* one beetle skin? I'm assuming that you're asking re any one of the 4 beetle skins in your list rather than 1 specific beetle skin, btw. If so, the probability can best be looked at as 100% minus the chance of getting no beetle skin on any of your random rolls. For the first roll, your chance of getting no beetle skin is 11/15 = 73.3% (as there are 15 potential mounts, and 11 of them are non-beetles) For the 2nd roll, you've used up one of the non-beetle skins, but there are also 14 skins in total left to choose from, so the odds of getting no beetle skin on your second roll are 10/14 = 71.4% One can go on with rolls 3, 4 and 5 to get odds of 9/13, 8/12 and 7/11 respectively So the odds of getting *no* beetle skins at all with 5 rolls is 11/15 x 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 7/11 = appx 15.4% Thus, the odds of getting *at least* one beetle skin are 100% minus 15.4% = approx 84.6%, which is the chance you were looking for. Of course, there's also a chance that you get 2 or beetle skins through this process, but that's another calculation. Thank you so much. That's pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

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