Black Lion Chest Loot on Christmas Day

[Lucky Ribbons.9715]

Hi All, 

 

Just wondering if less people play on Christmas Day, does that mean that my chance of getting "uncommon drops" drops dramatically? I opened 60 black lion chests on Christmas Day and did not get a single uncommon drop.

 

Wiki states " In addition there is a chance at an uncommon, rare or super rare item which will appear as an additional fifth drop." And as it is a chance, I just find it odd that 60 Black lion keys only gave 4 items every time.

 

I opened another 20 chests today and got at least 3 uncommon drops - and they appeared as a 5th drop item - so would really like to know. 

 

That was a whole year of key farming.  =] 

 

Thanks.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Sometimes, one is lucky...sometimes, one is not.  🤷‍♂️

[Danikat.8537]

The drop chance is the same for each chest. It doesn't matter how many you open at once or how many other people are opening them at the same time or anything else, each time you open a chest you have the same chance to get uncommon or better items. 

60 chests without an uncommon drop is unusual but I don't think it's outside of the normal distribution. I'm sure someone can work out the maths.

[PsychoSomatic.6728]

It's a loot box gamble.  Everytime is simply a gamble.  Some people get something great the first time opening.  You go opening and get nothing.  It's simply the mechanics working.  People announcing good things only encourages people to hope they will get something good.  The unfortunate thing is that you don't hear all the people that got crap from the loot boxes.  If you did you would see what a poor chance you have on getting anything decent.

 

 

[Randulf.7614]

Never farm or buy keys. The more people do, the more their metrics indicate they should keep up the practice. The sooner these get banned forever, the better.

This end of year morality lesson was brought to you free of charge!

[Mantis.6102]

I hate to cramp Anet's money game, but I sure hope no one is buying keys with gems. It just doesn't make sense.

[lezbefriends.7516]

3 hours ago, Randulf.7614 said:

Never farm or buy keys. The more people do, the more their metrics indicate they should keep up the practice. The sooner these get banned forever, the better.

This end of year morality lesson was brought to you free of charge!

Why even play the game if you disapprove of egregious monetization, learn to be proper activists. it’s why I refuse to play eso.

Edited December 27, 2022 by lezbefriends.7516

[Schimmi.6872]

3 hours ago, Danikat.8537 said:

The drop chance is the same for each chest. It doesn't matter how many you open at once or how many other people are opening them at the same time or anything else, each time you open a chest you have the same chance to get uncommon or better items. 

60 chests without an uncommon drop is unusual but I don't think it's outside of the normal distribution. I'm sure someone can work out the maths.

Let's try, I hope my calculations are correct:

According to the different sources I found, the chance to get an uncommon or higher item is around 7 to 10%.

So the chance to get non of this items out of 60 BLCs would be  0,18% - 1,29%.

[PsychoSomatic.6728]

And yet it happened to you which means it's statistically rare but occurs.  Just like the chances to get a rare item are statistically rare but happens to people.

[Danikat.8537]

I used to know someone who thought the opposite of this: that the rarest drops were restricted to a fixed number dropping across the whole game per day. So for example bank express contracts might be restricted to 1 per day, so if someone else got one that day it would be impossible to get one no matter how many chests you opened. 

She would save keys to use on days when she thought the fewest people would be online, then stay up to use them right after reset. 

She never got any evidence the theory was correct, and never got any of the rarest drops, but remained convinced that was how it worked. 

[PsychoSomatic.6728]

Everyone hopes that there is something good could happen with gambling on things.  Unfortunately it's simply a gamble no matter what.

 

The only thing I would hope Anet would do is put things on a vendor with whatever number of statues so people can at least work toward it.  I know they do "Some" but most are not put on there.  This means it is very unfair.

 

I wish they would be honest enough to put everything on Statue vendors that were only allowed to be found in the loot boxes so things would be fair.  They could have several Statue vendors to do this.  Instead they keep it low and make it sure that it's hard to get things so there for taking advantage of gambling to a hard level.

[Doggie.3184]

They should update the tier names honestly to reflect the actual odds better. Common needs split since unlocks and scraps are actually uncommon. Common tier is usually always primers, revive orbs, tran charges and teleports. The entire uncommon tier should be upgraded to rare and rare to super rare and super rare to impossibly rare.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Doggie.3184

[Gehenna.3625]

RNGeesus hates you. It happens.

[Hesione.9412]

6 hours ago, Danikat.8537 said:

The drop chance is the same for each chest. It doesn't matter how many you open at once or how many other people are opening them at the same time or anything else, each time you open a chest you have the same chance to get uncommon or better items. 

60 chests without an uncommon drop is unusual but I don't think it's outside of the normal distribution. I'm sure someone can work out the maths.

The problem with doing the maths is that one needs the actual probability of success, viz https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial

[PsychoSomatic.6728]

Honestly with these loot boxes, you simply need to go in with ZERO expectations.  Don't hope for anything.  Hoping leads to two things.  Disappointment and a desire to try again to get what you want.   What you want is locked behind extremely low chances designed to keep you trying.

[kharmin.7683]

2 hours ago, PsychoSomatic.6728 said:

Honestly with these loot boxes, you simply need to go in with ZERO expectations.  Don't hope for anything.  Hoping leads to two things.  Disappointment and a desire to try again to get what you want.   What you want is locked behind extremely low chances designed to keep you trying.

Yep.  Working as intended.

[KerryTT.4792]

Whelp, as someone who does spend gems to pick up black lion keys, based on my experience, you were really unlucky. Every time a new chest is released, I open 25 chests. I usually get about 2 uncommon drops. (One day I will figure out what to do with those 1267 black lion statuettes I am hording.) 

[Zebulous.2934]

I feel like the rate of opening a blc and getting a 5th drop was reduced about 3 chest cycles ago. Prior to that; I would average about 1 out of 10 chests that I opened contained a 5th drop.  (Could we call them golden drops, since a golden key guarantees them?)

 These days I am lucky to get a third golden drop when I open 50 chests. 

[Lucky Ribbons.9715]

So shall I try again next Christmas Day?

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

Only you can answer that question with any authority. 

[Vrath.1754]

On 12/27/2022 at 7:43 AM, Randulf.7614 said:

Never farm or buy keys. The more people do, the more their metrics indicate they should keep up the practice. The sooner these get banned forever, the better.

This end of year morality lesson was brought to you free of charge!

Be careful what you wish for. 1st the clueless Gov officials barely know what a search engine is or how or how it functions. The last thing we need is them meddling in gaming. 

2nd do you really think companies including ANet will take the lose of revenue laying down? There is no chance of that.

They will introduce more ways to make up for the lost revenue and in more invasive ways and likely end up being things you can avoid. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Vrath.1754

[Dr Meta.3158]

It is technically possible to only get common items out of 1,000 chests.

In Lineage 2, I used to fail a skill enchant at 97% success rate 5 times in a row. We used to call it "Korean random".

[Randulf.7614]

On 12/31/2022 at 4:05 PM, Vrath.1754 said:

Be careful what you wish for. 1st the clueless Gov officials barely know what a search engine is or how or how it functions. The last thing we need is them meddling in gaming. 

2nd do you really think companies including ANet will take the lose of revenue laying down? There is no chance of that.

They will introduce more ways to make up for the lost revenue and in more invasive ways and likely end up being things you can avoid. 

Here in Britain we change government every couple of months so I’m sure one of them will get it right eventually

[Khisanth.2948]

10 minutes ago, Randulf.7614 said:

Here in Britain we change government every couple of months so I’m sure one of them will get it right eventually

So the final outcome of Brexit was actually the ideal solution? O_o

[Randulf.7614]

17 minutes ago, Khisanth.2948 said:

So the final outcome of Brexit was actually the ideal solution? O_o

I’ll let you know when we get there