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What city will be attacked first?


Michram.6853
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I don't mean the small attack like some portals appear and 5-10 Awakened appear and do nothing dangerous, but I mean a massive attack on one of Tyrian cities.

We heard Rox saying that the portals started appearing in Hoelbrak.

I think Joko will not be able to attack all the cities at once and successfully claim them.

So what city is his major target?

The Grove- I think it's unlikely. I wonder: what if Sylvari are immune to be Awakened?- as far I didn't see any Awakened Sylvari, also I didn't see any awakened charr etc, but we know Human and Asura can be Awakened. It's just 'what if', but that would be very interesting.Black Citadel- it's likely, because charr are the military race, and taking control over so many weapons' ideas and tactics would be disasterous for us.Hoelbrak- also likely, but I think this city is not Joko's target, if we look at Asura or Charr secrets etc, Norn have less to give.Rata Sum- very, very likely. If Joko takes Rata Sum, then he has the open way to Rata Novus, and we know how many secrets are there.Lion's Arch- unlikely, this city is very well defended, also a lot of free spaces are good for us, because we can easily kill the enemies, and a lot of cannons etc around the city will just shank every enemy. If other cities fall, LA will stand still.Divinity's Reach- with the huge powers of Jennah, its very unlikely this city will fall. She and her army is very good, and they don't kneel before any enemy. Also we got the battle for Lake Doric/Divinity's Reach few months ago, and I thinjk it's not Joko's major target.

I think Rata Sum and Black Citadel may be Joko's 1st, major targets to start his influence over Tyria.

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My suspicion is that Joko isn't after a military victory at all. Even if he managed to take a city and plunder it, he'd never be able to hold it, and that being the case, in the medium-term it'd only provoke a given race to throw its whole weight behind the war. Joko's a long-term thinker; he wouldn't do that to himself unless he had an ace up his sleeve.

My bet is that these incursions, scattered and at random, are just a distraction. Tie the enemy down, keep them concerned and preoccupied and on the defensive to buy time for the real plan. From what we saw in Fahrunur, smart money is that he's staking his victory on reviving the Scarab Plague and releasing it on Core Tyria. If it turns out that his Awakened troops are immune to it, then he'd be able to sit back and let it devastate us before moving in to mop up whatever he wishes to.

(It also, potentially, could solve his issues at home, if he's willing to kill off ~a third of his living subjects. Istan would make a great warning as to the price of defiance, it'd give his armies a surge of new manpower before the Core Tyria campaign... and, honestly, he strikes me as the type who'd appreciate the irony of history repeating itself under his hand.)

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I find it hard to believe Joko could successfully take over any of the big cities, at least not before conquering the surrounding lands. Even that might not help, since reinforcements and supplies could come through Asura gates....unless he still has pet Inquest people who have learned to remotely disable the gates. (And if so, how will we get in to fight him?)

If there is a massive attack on a city, I expect it will either be Lion's Arch (because it is multi-racial and would affect everyone) or Divinity's Reach (because the game is kind of human-centric.) If one of the other cities, I think it is less likely to be the Grove, if only because HoT featured a Mordremoth minion attacking the city, and Silvari were spotlighted a lot in that expansion already.

If we ask the question, which is more likely to be attacked, Rata Sum or the Black Citadel, you could make the argument that Joko is finding his Inquest asuran technology profitable and will be hungry for more. An alternate argument could be made that the Charr homelands are the closest to the Crystal Desert, and that (Asura gates or not) it would be more strategically feasible for Joko to extend his empire in a more consolidated bloc, rather than striking and conquering an area that he can't get to without the gates.

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@Aaron Ansari.1604 said:My suspicion is that Joko isn't after a military victory at all. Even if he managed to take a city and plunder it, he'd never be able to hold it, and that being the case, in the medium-term it'd only provoke a given race to throw its whole weight behind the war. Joko's a long-term thinker; he wouldn't do that to himself unless he had an ace up his sleeve.

My bet is that these incursions, scattered and at random, are just a distraction. Tie the enemy down, keep them concerned and preoccupied and on the defensive to buy time for the real plan. From what we saw in Fahrunur, smart money is that he's staking his victory on reviving the Scarab Plague and releasing it on Core Tyria. If it turns out that his Awakened troops are immune to it, then he'd be able to sit back and let it devastate us before moving in to mop up whatever he wishes to.

(It also, potentially, could solve his issues at home, if he's willing to kill off ~a third of his living subjects. Istan would make a great warning as to the price of defiance, it'd give his armies a surge of new manpower before the Core Tyria campaign... and, honestly, he strikes me as the type who'd appreciate the irony of history repeating itself under his hand.)

I think so too. His plan is most likely to recreate the Scarab Plague and unleash it in Core Tyria to kill as many people as possible. Afterwards he will awaken all those who died in order to add a massive number of fresh troops to the undead legions he already have. And then, he will start the real invasion against a weakened enemy.

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This is the beginning skirmishes, so he's unlikely planning to hold the cities.

Rather than arguing the distraction route, I'd suggest that what we witness now is most likely just probing, to see which cities react the fastest and the hardest, and to gather locational intel (where things are and such). Successive assaults would be more targeted, going where the most damage can be done - assassinating national leaders, poisoning food supplies, causing panic among citizens.

The second one being the main goal - that's how the Scarab Plague first spread, so granaries and the like will be targeted soon if the common theory that he's planning on reviving the plague is true.

Of course, it's entirely possible that the whole "war on Central Tyria" bit is a ruse entirely, and he's after something more specific than conquering new lands. But they kind of played that plot with Scarlet and the Marionette.

Ultimately, I don't think he'll get far enough for us to personally witness an assault on a city proper. Firstly, open world is a no go because cities are meant to be a place of rest and outside LA, new players go there and they will need safe zones. Secondly, in instances - we're in Elona, we're not going to detour up to Central Tyria when the root of the problem is also in Elona. So unless Joko himself decides to sit on Kryta's throne personally, we're not going to witness any city assaulted.

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i wrote my bet here, the "invade" thing is just a scarecrow to bring everyone to elona.

my bet

The plan is to attract the armies of Tyria to Elona, where there is the great Kralkatorrik boy. If the Dragon sweeps these armies, Joko will have a free hand to invade Tyria, if the armies kill the Dragon, Joko will have a trick to absorb his powers, hes building a win-win scenario for him.

At the end of the LS4 chapter we know that Pact will be contacted. And Braham apparently did not give up on eliminating Jormag. Pact may enter revenge mode and want to kill Kralkatorrik at any cost, Braham will go after Jormag, and the Asuras will invent some machine to eliminate Primordus. The plot will be a race against several fronts of disaster.

https://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/comment/359531

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Livia has her own opinion of the attacks as well:

"[...] these attacks are simple displays of power to provoke fear."

The other NPCs who show up during the event likely say something about the invasions too.

If Livia is right - and she's been around long enough to have a good handle on Joko I'd bet - then Joko's plan is to make Tyrians fearful that he could attack them at any moment, at any place.

If so, he didn't consider that Scarlet had already played that fiddle.

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With the Inquest Awakened in his service the most logical path would be the weakest city, Ebonhawke, and once the asura gate there is secured, up to Divinity's Reach completely bypassing most of its defenses. Even if not taking the city in one assault, enough chaos and corruption could be spread to infect the densely populated human capital with the revised Scarab Plague. Should DR fall, he can continue on with the same method right into the middle of Lions Arch. But I dont think that will ever happen, likely we would ruin his plans before Ebonhawke is taken.

What I'm wondering on the side, what if its not just simple scarabs he wants to use, but another kind of bug that we got introduced to not long ago that seem to have some relevence in the overarching story. Chak Plague anyone?

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@lakdav.3694 said:to Divinity's Reach completely bypassing most of its defenses.

They can already do this, technically speaking, given that the asura gates that Joko has commandeered do not require a receiving gate they can go anywhere (as we see in the invasions).

@lakdav.3694 said:What I'm wondering on the side, what if its not just simple scarabs he wants to use, but another kind of bug that we got introduced to not long ago that seem to have some relevence in the overarching story. Chak Plague anyone?

I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

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@"Konig Des Todes.2086" said:I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

He probably has loyal agents through Tyria keeping him informed of anything of interest happening there.

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@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:

@lakdav.3694 said:to Divinity's Reach completely bypassing most of its defenses.

They can already do this, technically speaking, given that the asura gates that Joko has commandeered do not require a receiving gate they can go anywhere (as we see in the invasions).

@lakdav.3694 said:What I'm wondering on the side, what if its not just simple scarabs he wants to use, but another kind of bug that we got introduced to not long ago that seem to have some relevence in the overarching story. Chak Plague anyone?

I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

I thought it’s been known that he, much like the order of whispers, has eyes and ears all over the place. I think Anet mentioned that a while ago but I have no clue and wouldn’t even know where to look for that info.

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@Durzlla.6295 said:

@lakdav.3694 said:to Divinity's Reach completely bypassing most of its defenses.

They can already do this, technically speaking, given that the asura gates that Joko has commandeered do not require a receiving gate they can go anywhere (as we see in the invasions).

@lakdav.3694 said:What I'm wondering on the side, what if its not just simple scarabs he wants to use, but another kind of bug that we got introduced to not long ago that seem to have some relevence in the overarching story. Chak Plague anyone?

I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

I thought it’s been known that he, much like the order of whispers, has eyes and ears all over the place. I think Anet mentioned that a while ago but I have no clue and wouldn’t even know where to look for that info.

Still, it's a lot easier to find out about an entire race spreading over a continent for 30 years, or a massive dragon killing people and exploding than it is to fj d out about bugs that, as far as we know, are not a widespread race, and are only in the heart of maguuma

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@Arden.7480 said:I don't mean the small attack like some portals appear and 5-10 Awakened appear and do nothing dangerous, but I mean a massive attack on one of Tyrian cities.

We heard Rox saying that the portals started appearing in Hoelbrak.

I think Joko will not be able to attack all the cities at once and successfully claim them.

So what city is his major target?

The Grove- I think it's unlikely. I wonder: what if Sylvari are immune to be Awakened?- as far I didn't see any Awakened Sylvari, also I didn't see any awakened charr etc, but we know Human and Asura can be Awakened. It's just 'what if', but that would be very interesting.Black Citadel- it's likely, because charr are the military race, and taking control over so many weapons' ideas and tactics would be disasterous for us.Hoelbrak- also likely, but I think this city is not Joko's target, if we look at Asura or Charr secrets etc, Norn have less to give.Rata Sum- very, very likely. If Joko takes Rata Sum, then he has the open way to Rata Novus, and we know how many secrets are there.Lion's Arch- unlikely, this city is very well defended, also a lot of free spaces are good for us, because we can easily kill the enemies, and a lot of cannons etc around the city will just shank every enemy. If other cities fall, LA will stand still.Divinity's Reach- with the huge powers of Jennah, its very unlikely this city will fall. She and her army is very good, and they don't kneel before any enemy. Also we got the battle for Lake Doric/Divinity's Reach few months ago, and I thinjk it's not Joko's major target.

I think Rata Sum and Black Citadel may be Joko's 1st, major targets to start his influence over Tyria.

The Grove I can see it as a great place to attack. You gain a metric heap of knowledge if you can awaken the pale tree, and intercept the dreams of the Sylvari.Rata Sum EXTREMELY likely. Advanced technology, research, as well as portals? Hell yes!Black Citadel EXTREMEEEMELY UNLIKELY. Black Citadel is a god dang fortress. It's a tower of guns and big angry hell cats. And all of them, including their farmers, are trained for war. Black Citadel would be the last place you'd dare to attack with an army that doesn't know what the heck a siege devourer is. They're also pretty experienced with fighting the UNDEAD. That giant yarn ball of steel is packing so much gun, and steel that it will be a land slide victory for the charr. Who will then rush through the gates to rip, and praise him, joko apart. Plus flame throwers are good against the undead.Hoelbrak Low odds. There's not a lot to conquer. Not a whole lot to gain. Resources are marginal. There's no military advantage to it other than high ground... and even then the high-ground has a f*cking elder dragon next to it.Divinity's Reach A good shot. Humanity is dying out. And Divinity's Reach is the last major civilization of humans in Tyria. They're already weakened by the mess going on with the mursats.Lion's Arch A possibility. It's well defended, but most of its defenses are sea side.

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@Fenom.9457 said:

@lakdav.3694 said:to Divinity's Reach completely bypassing most of its defenses.

They can already do this, technically speaking, given that the asura gates that Joko has commandeered do not require a receiving gate they can go anywhere (as we see in the invasions).

@lakdav.3694 said:What I'm wondering on the side, what if its not just simple scarabs he wants to use, but another kind of bug that we got introduced to not long ago that seem to have some relevence in the overarching story. Chak Plague anyone?

I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

I thought it’s been known that he, much like the order of whispers, has eyes and ears all over the place. I think Anet mentioned that a while ago but I have no clue and wouldn’t even know where to look for that info.

Still, it's a lot easier to find out about an entire race spreading over a continent for 30 years, or a massive dragon killing people and exploding than it is to fj d out about bugs that, as far as we know, are not a widespread race, and are only in the heart of maguuma

Very true, however I thought it was implied that Chak just live in the depths, and are attracted to Ley Energy, so there’s a chance he’s discovered them, however I doubt he’s planning on using Chak, my money is on the Scarab Plague

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@Pax.3548 said:

@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

He probably has loyal agents through Tyria keeping him informed of anything of interest happening there.

Hard to believe if Elona really was cut off by Tyrians once he took over though. Granted, they likely couldn't have a perfect border going, but to infiltrate deep enough to be able to pin-point each major city's location, recognize sylvari as a major race, and hear of Mordremoth's antics so quickly and be able to rewrite history so fluidly and quickly is rather... impressive, on the improbable scale.

They may be major events, but it's more the speed in which he gets this information, and the speed in which he can utilize it to rewrite Elonian records, that is hard to imagine, especially when Joko had no long range communication devices, and even couldn't use asura gates until just recently (having gotten Taimi to show him how - apparently the Awakened Inquest did not retain their living intelligence, which isn't a surprise - got to make them a fundamentally different threat from risen somehow, else you just get repetative).

That means that all spies for Joko in Central Tyria, prior to Daybreak, had to send messages ye olde fashion way.

And when you add in the Order of Whispers who should be keeping a special eye out for any Joko spies, it becomes even more impractical.

@Durzlla.6295 said:

@lakdav.3694 said:to Divinity's Reach completely bypassing most of its defenses.

They can already do this, technically speaking, given that the asura gates that Joko has commandeered do not require a receiving gate they can go anywhere (as we see in the invasions).

@lakdav.3694 said:What I'm wondering on the side, what if its not just simple scarabs he wants to use, but another kind of bug that we got introduced to not long ago that seem to have some relevence in the overarching story. Chak Plague anyone?

I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

I thought it’s been known that he, much like the order of whispers, has eyes and ears all over the place. I think Anet mentioned that a while ago but I have no clue and wouldn’t even know where to look for that info.

Never saw mention of this. At least, not in Central Tyria. He has eyes and ears all over Elona, however.

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@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:

@Pax.3548 said:

@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

He probably has loyal agents through Tyria keeping him informed of anything of interest happening there.

Hard to believe if Elona really was cut off by Tyrians once he took over though. Granted, they likely couldn't have a perfect border going, but to infiltrate deep enough to be able to pin-point each major city's location, recognize sylvari as a major race, and hear of Mordremoth's antics so quickly and be able to rewrite history so fluidly and quickly is rather... impressive, on the improbable scale.

They may be major events, but it's more the speed in which he gets this information, and the speed in which he can utilize it to rewrite Elonian records, that is hard to imagine, especially when Joko had no long range communication devices, and even couldn't use asura gates until just recently (having gotten Taimi to show him how - apparently the Awakened Inquest did not retain their living intelligence, which isn't a surprise - got to make them a fundamentally different threat from risen
somehow
, else you just get repetative).

That means that all spies for Joko in Central Tyria, prior to Daybreak, had to send messages ye olde fashion way.

And when you add in the Order of Whispers who should be keeping a special eye out for any Joko spies, it becomes even more impractical.

After Zhaitan's rise, contact with elona was made very difficult, and the order of whispers was no longer focused on joko, but on the elder dragon's threat, Joko must have his own means to get loyal human spies into Tyria, besides the information he got was pretty known through Tyria: the Sylvari appearance, zhaitan's defeat, mordremoth's awakening all these facts became known to the common people so any spy could learn these things without much effort and without drawing attention from the order of whispers.

Well, it is true that he seems to get good info rather quickly, perhaps the order of shadow is involved in this somehow?

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@Pax.3548 said:

@Pax.3548 said:

@Konig Des Todes.2086 said:I want to say "would he even know of the chak?" but then again, he somehow knows about sylvari and wrote them into his tale of how he gifted magic to the sapient races, and he somehow knows about Mordremoth.

Which leads me to ask: how does he know these things?

He probably has loyal agents through Tyria keeping him informed of anything of interest happening there.

Hard to believe if Elona really was cut off by Tyrians once he took over though. Granted, they likely couldn't have a perfect border going, but to infiltrate deep enough to be able to pin-point each major city's location, recognize sylvari as a major race, and hear of Mordremoth's antics so quickly and be able to rewrite history so fluidly and quickly is rather... impressive, on the improbable scale.

They may be major events, but it's more the speed in which he gets this information, and the speed in which he can utilize it to rewrite Elonian records, that is hard to imagine, especially when Joko had no long range communication devices, and even couldn't use asura gates until just recently (having gotten Taimi to show him how - apparently the Awakened Inquest did not retain their living intelligence, which isn't a surprise - got to make them a fundamentally different threat from risen
somehow
, else you just get repetative).

That means that all spies for Joko in Central Tyria, prior to Daybreak, had to send messages ye olde fashion way.

And when you add in the Order of Whispers who should be keeping a special eye out for any Joko spies, it becomes even more impractical.

After Zhaitan's rise, contact with elona was made very difficult, and the order of whispers was no longer focused on joko, but on the elder dragon's threat, Joko must have his own means to get loyal human spies into Tyria, besides the information he got was pretty known through Tyria: the Sylvari appearance, zhaitan's defeat, mordremoth's awakening all these facts became known to the common people so any spy could learn these things without much effort and without drawing attention from the order of whispers.

Well, it is true that he seems to get good info rather quickly, perhaps the order of shadow is involved in this somehow?

Yes and no. Everyone knows that Zhaitan and Mordremoth were defeated, but it'd be a rare person that could accurately reproduce their appearance, the way the murals in Vehtendi do.

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@"Pax.3548" said:After Zhaitan's rise, contact with elona was made very difficult, and the order of whispers was no longer focused on joko, but on the elder dragon's threat, Joko must have his own means to get loyal human spies into Tyria, besides the information he got was pretty known through Tyria: the Sylvari appearance, zhaitan's defeat, mordremoth's awakening all these facts became known to the common people so any spy could learn these things without much effort and without drawing attention from the order of whispers.

Well, it is true that he seems to get good info rather quickly, perhaps the order of shadow is involved in this somehow?

You're ignoring the critical part of Joko's use of the knowledge.

That he had integrated it with Elona's history so quickly and efficiently.

Sylvari have been around for only 28 years by the time of PoF, yet it's a well taught "fact" that the sylvari were among the races gifted magic by Joko.

This had been integrated into society so well, it seems, that even those who are older than 28 believe it.

And that's ignoring their depiction in the murals as Aaron points out - that itself indicates that Joko has spies within the Pact. Where the Order of Whispers would be paying the most attention to the existence of spies.

That's what's so hard to believe, quite a bit more than "Joko somehow got spies through Tyria's attempt to prevent travel from Elona since he took over, beyond blockaded passageways, and without notifying a group still in contact with Elona."

Side note: Zhaitan never had a great impact on contact with Elona - just contact with Cantha. We always had that land access, until Joko took over and Tyrians went the route of embargoing Elona.

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That Black Citadel I hope. It is long overdue to wipe the charr out of Ascalon forever and I would even be willing to make a dirty deal with the undead of Joko to get this done. We have enough ghosts in Ascalon already. Maybe we can convince Joko's undead to join forces under command of our ghostly King Adelbern.

And maybe, after much fighting, the Ascalonian Humans and Ascalonian Ghosts can be in peace again.

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It is quite safe to assume that Joko has a monopoly on truth in Vabbi reaching for the level of Orwell's 1984, and little less prominently in Istan (when we get there anyway). Actually 1984 is probably the inspiration for this aspect of Joko's rule, which is quite fitting considering his spite for Kormir who ascended to become goddess of Truth.

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I don’t think it’s too hard to believe that Joko has spies in the pact, it really wouldn’t be all that difficult to infiltrate the Vigil, and I don’t imagine the priory being too difficult either. Now if they were saying Joko has spies in the order of whispers itself, especially anything high ranking, I’d be more skeptical, but also very intimidated by that spy.

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