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Will 3rd Expansion happen at all?


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Since MMORPG games are in the age of decline, and new expansion will most likely release in late 2019.It is almost 1 years and half from today, (and 2 years might see drastically change in game trends, popularity of certain kind of game and technology)

I'm not very sure if GW2 will invest in new expansion...(they started but might not release...)Do you guys think of how much % that it will not happening?

For me it is 30%. that it won't happen...

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@yefluke.3168 said:Since MMORPG games are in the age of decline, and new expansion will most likely release in late 2019.It is almost 1 years and half from today, (and 2 years might see drastically change in game trends, popularity of certain kind of game and technology)

I'm not very sure if GW2 will invest in new expansion...(they started but might not release...)Do you guys think of how much % that it will not happening?

For me it is 30%. that it won't happen...

100% coming. The udates are regular. The Living world seasons are regular, Don't worry we will have expansions

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According to the most recent earnings report Pof performs very well. There is a good chance the game will leave the 14 bln Won Pit between the expansions. Areanet has recently started many overhauls like cash shop and WvW. They want to kep the current momentum on a high level. And the upcoming third expansion will keep the thrill of antcipation on high levels.

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@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:Considering this is their bread and butter and considering they’re making regular content releases which will lead up to the next story arc I’d say it’s 100% that there will be a 3rd Expansion.

You are absolutely right with the first portion. It is the reason why they get up in the morning and leave the house.They will do something to keep the game running as long as possible instead of letting it die out of the nowhere.

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Guild Wars 2 is Arenanet's only game (except GW1 which is in maintenance mode). Which means they can't simply drop it and focus on other games like a big studio can. Of course they could make a new game, or a few new games, but they'd have to start over completely from scratch and they'd lose a lot of customer faith and good will in the process - they'd be risking the future of the entire studio and everyone's jobs. That's not something you do because the rumour mill says other subgenres are now more profitable.

Also I've not heard many details I suspect this "age of decline" basically comes down to it's been a while since a new game has been declared a "WoW killer" by the gaming press and nothing has made the kind of profits that game did at it's peak. But nothing else ever did anyway (except maybe Lineage, but only in Korea) so it's more like returning to normal for what was always a niche subgenre.

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@Arzurag.7506 said:What if we get GW3 instead ? Would be kinda funny when they release a trailer that is the announcement for GW3 in disguise.^^

Unless they've been working on GW3 since GW2 was released, in addition to all the releases this game has gotten, that seems pretty unlikely. But it would be funny, especially after the long wait for GW2, if they just suddenly announced a new game is coming.

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@Danikat.8537 said:Guild Wars 2 is Arenanet's only game (except GW1 which is in maintenance mode). Which means they can't simply drop it and focus on other games like a big studio can. Of course they could make a new game, or a few new games, but they'd have to start over completely from scratch and they'd lose a lot of customer faith and good will in the process - they'd be risking the future of the entire studio and everyone's jobs. That's not something you do because the rumour mill says other subgenres are now more profitable.

I personally believe they'll be producing GW2 expansions for a very long time but what you say they couldn't do is pretty much exactly what they did for GW2: they dropped development of GW1 in 2007 and focused on developing GW2 for the next 5 years.

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currently new mmos are not doing so well and many of the older ones still have a hard player core. a new launch brings a lot more risks and problems and what really could we expect apart from marginally better graphics (= likely lousier multiplayer performance). I think the trend on the mmo market is to stick with existing stuff at the moment, because fleshed-out and well-tended games are just better than a lot of those new, bug ridden, cashgrab releases. They look pretty, but the gameplay often boils down to the same basic structures.

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Will 3rd expansion happen? I have no idea, and since PoF launched recently I'm not going to worry at all about whether or not the next expansion will launch in another couple of years - I'm focused on enjoying the game and assuming I'll get to play it for the foreseeable future.

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@Pifil.5193 said:

@Danikat.8537 said:Guild Wars 2 is Arenanet's only game (except GW1 which is in maintenance mode). Which means they can't simply drop it and focus on other games like a big studio can. Of course they could make a new game, or a few new games, but they'd have to start over completely from scratch and they'd lose a lot of customer faith and good will in the process - they'd be risking the future of the entire studio and everyone's jobs. That's not something you do because the rumour mill says other subgenres are now more profitable.

I personally believe they'll be producing GW2 expansions for a very long time but what you say they
couldn't
do is pretty much exactly what they
did
for GW2: they dropped development of GW1 in 2007 and focused on developing GW2 for the next 5 years.

That's a bit different though. I'm talking about traditional studios where they have different teams working on different games all at the same time.

For example if the new Wolfenstein game didn't do as well as expected Bethesda could choose to delay making a sequel and/or make less DLC for it and focus on the next Elder Scrolls game instead, because they already have that franchise established and are almost certainly already working on the next game. Anet can't do that because they don't have any other games to focus on. They'd have to design, build market and release a brand new one completely from scratch, which is much more expensive and more of a risk because there isn't an existing fanbase for the finished product.

As I said they could do it, but I don't think they would want to without a very good reason.

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I think one of the reasons mmo rpg are in decline is cause of gw2 being awesome. There was a time where mmo makers could charge monthly fees, get customers to pay for expansions AND charge them for micro transactions. With gw2 being a competitive game in this market, the monthly fees are mostly gone, initial prizes are lowered or gone and expansion prizes have gone down. This means the industry isn’t able to invest as much (as profit margins are a lot lower), so the quality of the competitors went down. This makes, to me, gw2 the leading game in the market. So in short. They caused the decline in the overall market cause they are that good. So yes, an expansion will happen.

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@Belenwyn.8674 said:According to the most recent earnings report Pof performs very well. There is a good chance the game will leave the 14 bln Won Pit between the expansions. Areanet has recently started many overhauls like cash shop and WvW. They want to kep the current momentum on a high level. And the upcoming third expansion will keep the thrill of antcipation on high levels.

I think you're overestimating the revenue rise of PoF as I explained in your thread. I don't think we can tell how successful PoF has been until we see the Q1 numbers for this year. The overall trend is still downward if you zoom out a little bit more.

But as nobody knows what NcSoft needs in terms of revenue to warrant a next expansion, it's really just speculation here. Once they announce another expansion then we'll know. Until then it's impossible for us to tell what they can and cannot do really.

All I know factually is that the overall trend for GW2 in revenue has been downward (HoT gave a bigger revenue spike than PoF so far) and in between the expansions it's also been getting lower and lower to an all time low last year in Q2.

The key really lies in the revenue vs the cost. As long as there's enough revenue to invest back into the game expansions will keep coming as that's a big part of their revenue, but the moment they fail to bring in enough revenue NcSoft may decided against it. If we are near that point I have no idea. I don't think anyone outside NcSoft/Anet really does.

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@yefluke.3168 said:Since MMORPG games are in the age of decline, and new expansion will most likely release in late 2019.

MMORPGs already declined years ago. It's why multiple Western MMORPGs were cancelled. Technical issues, failure to innovate, etc. However, that doesn't mean no MMORPG can succeed, part of the MMORPG issue is the same issue Mobas have now, a new game released practically daily. WoW, FFXIV, and GW2 were some of the survivors of the bubble that bursted.

ANet also recently talked about plans to draw in new players, so I would imagine they have long term plans for the game.

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