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do you feel lucky? new mount licenses and the odds


Cyto.9401

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hello everyone,

today when the new istani licenses came into the gem store, and so i wondered what the odds where. i generated a sheet on google docs where it calculates the odds of getting a specific set of skins out of the 15 skins if you use the random licenses, all so you guys wouldn't have too. the results where pretty clear, if you want only 1, 2, 3 or 4 skins out of the 15, you will be better of buying the "pick the skin you want" licenses. if you want 5 skins or more out of the 15, and you feel lucky enough to beat a 50/50 odds check, it will be better to buy the random licenses.

the math is available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15AnFt7VYRkmeX8SbvQ-rKg7m1a0d7cVrDX_8MTZlhIA/edit?usp=sharingfor the istani isles mount math make sure to select the "istani" tab at the bottom.

tl;dr if you feel lucky and think you can beat the 50/50 odds, it is cheaper to buy random licenses if you want 5 or more skins

your friendly neighborhood BLTC mercher,Cytos

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tl;dr (if the OP's math is correct)

  • To have a 67% chance of getting the 5 MountFits you want, you'd have to buy 14 licenses.
  • To get that same 2/3 chance for a single MountFit, you still need to buy 10 licenses.

Alternatively, if you spend 1200 gems on licenses, you have a 20% chance of getting a single specific skin from your three MountFits.

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I figured I could get 10 out of the 15 for 30 bucks cheaper than getting all 15, so I did that (well, spent a bit less cash and used up some gold) and only missed one of my three must gets, which I then specifically bought and still ended up with almost every skin I liked and most of the missing ones I didn't care much for. Only missing Orca, really, and I can do without it I just think it's a nifty variant that some of my alts would use.

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tl:drAll the skins are still massively overpriced, and if you decide to take your chances, you're nearly guaranteed to NOT get the skin you want.This license scheme is just as much a joke as the first one, it's just cloaked in the appearance of acquiescence to the playerbase's wishes, so there's not the same level of outrage (although there ought to be).

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@sablephoenix.1593 said:tl:drAll the skins are still massively overpriced, and if you decide to take your chances, you're nearly guaranteed to NOT get the skin you want.This license scheme is just as much a joke as the first one, it's just cloaked in the appearance of acquiescence to the playerbase's wishes, so there's not the same level of outrage (although there ought to be).

Some people will just never be happy with whatever solution is there.

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@sablephoenix.1593 said:tl:drAll the skins are still massively overpriced, and if you decide to take your chances, you're nearly guaranteed to NOT get the skin you want.This license scheme is just as much a joke as the first one, it's just cloaked in the appearance of acquiescence to the playerbase's wishes, so there's not the same level of outrage (although there ought to be).

An item priced higher than you can, or want, to pay does not mean it is overpriced. By definition a luxury item is not overpriced if consumers are willing to pay the price and the item does not miss sales expectations due to price.

There is no valid justification, zero, for outrage over someone choosing to sell their purely optional cosmetic luxury item however they desire.

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Hate to be that guy but..... As an adult gamer it’s a better use of my time to work 1extra hour irl and buy gems rather then farm gold a full day to convert to gems.

Most of these threads obsessing about cost and odds to be unsatisfied with gem store purchases are silly to me. If the cost of a product seems too high, don’t buy it.

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@sablephoenix.1593 said:tl:drAll the skins are still massively overpriced, and if you decide to take your chances, you're nearly guaranteed to NOT get the skin you want.This license scheme is just as much a joke as the first one, it's just cloaked in the appearance of acquiescence to the playerbase's wishes, so there's not the same level of outrage (although there ought to be).

Where is the evidence suggesting that all the skins are overpriced what is the price you suggest and do you have the numbers at hand to show us that its worth it, from a business point of view, to offer them at the price you think is right...Simple rule - if you only want one.. pay the piper for convenience or don't buy at all.. why the rage at a choice made so simple.Some people will always want something for nothing and will never be happy if they don't get their way.

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If it was possible to preview the license before purchase it would be one thing, but I tried and it didn't work. So if I was going to have to buy one anyway I bought the 5 shot one. There where a handful that I liked some I thought were absolute garbage and several that I just wasn't interested. Out of the 5 I got the ones I thought were garbage, every I wasn't interested in, and one I was, but then realized it wasn't what I'd hoped it was. Somehow the Rapters, which I want, are always the last I seem to manage to get.

Then I accidentally bought the 1200 gem buy what you want license and rather than have it returned I just grabbed the Primordial Jackel and I'm done it this set for good.

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@sablephoenix.1593 said:tl:drAll the skins are still massively overpriced, and if you decide to take your chances, you're nearly guaranteed to NOT get the skin you want.This license scheme is just as much a joke as the first one, it's just cloaked in the appearance of acquiescence to the playerbase's wishes, so there's not the same level of outrage (although there ought to be).

No way, all of the skins, even the stupid orca skimmer is worth 360 gems. They're also worth 400, but that implies you're not just buying all of them outright

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