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Superior Sigil of Nullification [Merged]


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@Bloodstealer.5978 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

@Tyson.5160 said:Was is interesting is the price is steadily climbing and climbing. Yet no dev response. When does it become a problem? 20 gold, 30, 40?

It becomes a problem when people can't get sigils. Only Anet knows when that will happen and they won't even know exactly when that will happen either.

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

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@Tyson.5160 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price.

Then what is it about?

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@Tyson.5160 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price.

Then what is it about?

Availability ... and NO data we have access to will tell you if that's in a good place or not.

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Why are you arguing again?

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Why are you arguing again?

This isn't an argument, it's a discussion. Clearly people need some educated perspective on what's relevant here.

Unless you got something topical to discuss, why are YOU asking me this question? Don't like the discussion when people aren't agreeing with you and you don't know how to respond to them? Maybe that's an indication of something.

And a nerve was hit.

Edit: Don’t care if people agree with me or not. You seem to talk to me as if you are a mind reader, Obtena, like as if you know what I’m thinking. This is not the case, like yesterday your presuming again.

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@Tyson.5160 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Why are you arguing again?

This isn't an argument, it's a discussion. Clearly people need some educated perspective on what's relevant here.

Unless you got something topical to discuss, why are YOU asking me this question? Don't like the discussion when people aren't agreeing with you and you don't know how to respond to them? Maybe that's an indication of something.

And a nerve was hit.

Maybe for you ...

This isn't a crisis unless people can't craft the armor. That's a function of many things, all accumulating to if sigils are available for them to make armor with. The factors that determine that are much more than most people understand and most of those being things we don't even have information about.

You can continue to believe whatever you want; WE (i'm not the only person) are giving people something to think about that support factual and logical ways to think about what is happening here. The fact is that Anet will adjust if they need to do so, as we have seen them do in the past. That's not a consequence of people crying about the price either ... as you can see from past history, MC's as an example.

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Why are you arguing again?

This isn't an argument, it's a discussion. Clearly people need some educated perspective on what's relevant here.

Unless you got something topical to discuss, why are YOU asking me this question? Don't like the discussion when people aren't agreeing with you and you don't know how to respond to them? Maybe that's an indication of something.

And a nerve was hit.

Maybe for you ...

This isn't a crisis unless people can't craft the armor. That's a function of many things, all accumulating to if sigils are available for them to make armor with. The factors that determine that are much more than most people understand and most of those being things we don't even have information about.

You can continue to believe you are right if you wish. The fact is that Anet will adjust if they need to do so, as we have seen them do in the past. That's not a consequence of people crying about the price either ... as you can see from past history, MC's as an example.

Cool.

Again, what is it that you hope to achieve with all this?

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@Tyson.5160 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Why are you arguing again?

This isn't an argument, it's a discussion. Clearly people need some educated perspective on what's relevant here.

Unless you got something topical to discuss, why are YOU asking me this question? Don't like the discussion when people aren't agreeing with you and you don't know how to respond to them? Maybe that's an indication of something.

And a nerve was hit.

Maybe for you ...

This isn't a crisis unless people can't craft the armor. That's a function of many things, all accumulating to if sigils are available for them to make armor with. The factors that determine that are much more than most people understand and most of those being things we don't even have information about.

You can continue to believe you are right if you wish. The fact is that Anet will adjust if they need to do so, as we have seen them do in the past. That's not a consequence of people crying about the price either ... as you can see from past history, MC's as an example.

Cool.

Again, what is it that you hope to achieve with all this?

Immediately? Maybe to keep you on topic and stop derailing the thread?

I mean, you haven't commented on my claim that availability is the important factor here ... so maybe you think I'm right.

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Why are you arguing again?

This isn't an argument, it's a discussion. Clearly people need some educated perspective on what's relevant here.

Unless you got something topical to discuss, why are YOU asking me this question? Don't like the discussion when people aren't agreeing with you and you don't know how to respond to them? Maybe that's an indication of something.

And a nerve was hit.

Maybe for you ...

This isn't a crisis unless people can't craft the armor. That's a function of many things, all accumulating to if sigils are available for them to make armor with. The factors that determine that are much more than most people understand and most of those being things we don't even have information about.

You can continue to believe you are right if you wish. The fact is that Anet will adjust if they need to do so, as we have seen them do in the past. That's not a consequence of people crying about the price either ... as you can see from past history, MC's as an example.

Cool.

Again, what is it that you hope to achieve with all this?

Immediately? Maybe to keep you on topic?

That’s what I thought. Arguing.

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Hey, me and others have presented the idea that the important factor (that we don't have data for) is availability. That's a completely reasonable assertion because availability is what causes a crisis where people can't craft the armor. Clearly, Anet wants people to have access to craft the armor so there isn't anything crazy or weird about thinking that availability is what's important here.

... so you dispute that's true or not?

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@Tyson.5160 said:Derailing...

I asked what your reasoning is for even caring if they changed how the sigil is obtained. You never answered. You called me naive and then continue to mock me. It’s just like the raid forum all over again.

I don't care ... but I don't see how that's relevant to the thread; you don't get that what I care about (or you or anyone else) is irrelevant to the way Anet implements the game. They didn't decide on this sigil because of players caring; there is some other reason they chose and not frivolously either. If you are feeling mocked, it's probably because you aren't engaging the conversation or stray of course the second you don't know how to respond to a reasonable assertion that availability is the importance consideration here.

If the sigil is available for people to craft the armor, that's all that is necessary. If Anet thinks there needs to be an alternate way to obtain it, I'm sure they will implement it, just like they did with MC's. But make no mistake ... no one player can say we are there yet, or ever will because it's not data we have access to make that determination. Anyone that claims Anet needs to intervene NOW because of some number they see is lacking a clear understanding of how the market works in the game.

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@Ayrilana.1396 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.There is no way to craft the sigil there is only luck and a single 1 sigil per lvl 64 reward to place into your scientific equations otherwise, if there were then maybe your opinion that there is potentially more supply coming into play than what we can see at any given point through the day would have some real mileage... yes there is some, but not enough.

Of course.. I forgot about the huge volume of players burning through all their tomes and buying up those 2k gem lvl up tokens 25+ times to ease their own pain and that of others ... yeah I think that's going to make a substantial dent in this issue, my bad..... in all seriousness there will be some that do that I know, but hardly enough to make even a small dent.

So, there in lies your problem, there is no viable, reliable supply route to market it is reliant on luck, so again try arguing that fact with science all you like, but luck is fickle and it only takes a few outliers on the wrong side to throw your science right out the window and in this case there will be many.If there was any substantial supply being generated, it is not being supplanted into the market, at least not in the numbers to make a difference to the gap in supply vs demand and that gap in unlikely to shorten anytime soon unless, like I have said players simply lose interest in it all together or a sudden pouring in of sigils from some flippers occurs (why would they do that.. they wouldn't) or everyone gets really lucky in the game of chance....At the rate that stock that was already accounted for in the system and all resupply that has occurred thus far, is being depleted, its more than possible that by tomorrow very few players will even be able to buy enough sigils to complete the armour set even if they were prepared to bite the bullet and pay the inflated prices.. unless your still confident there is some magic secret way of resupplying the market in the kind of numbers it needs and hope demand has fallen significantly for such a replenishment to have an effect.

Nah, sorry.. you can throw science at this as much as you like but the simple fact is there is no viable means to supply the market in the kinds of numbers needed, which is why I stand by the notion that the market is only being bolstered in the hundreds per day not the many thousands that it requires to ease the deficiency in costs and time for many players that were not able to take advantage of the price and/or the initial stocks already in the market at release... and that is why this is such a grossly unfair collection methodology ANET hase introduced.. its designed to utilise power trading and supply deprivation to induce a cashgrab via gem sales for as long as possible imo, but that comes with a risk if enough players loose interest fast in this, which would not surprise me in the slightest.

What if 10K sigils alone were hypothetically sold today? Just looking at the supply level at one point of time compared to another doesn’t indicate this. That’s what I was getting at. Velocity/supply turnover isn’t something that we have very good data on calculating. Sigils sold immediately to buy orders don’t even show up in supply data as far as I’m aware as what we see as supply is just sell orders.

Well if such an inducement had already happened in the market the first thing that would happen is noticeable jumps in sock numbers appearing somewhere in the TP post through the day and likely some more noticeable price drops.. except that hasn't been the case on both counts in fact both have gone the direct opposite... so I would say that using some of that garbage science that hypothesis didn't work out to well.Its not about taking a single point somewhere in the day its about monitoring the stock through the day and taking snapshots of levels .. its all we can go on, just like we don't really know how many active players are really after the set anyways, or how many lucky dice rolls players are getting in the forge or in their exotic weapon loot drops, we don't even know how many players already had stock or like me, some stock.But if those kind of numbers were significantly high the first thing we would see is a drop in demand and therefore a drop in price accordingly.I have watched the market for a few days now and I cannot remember seeing any significant upscale of the available stock or any price drop worth mentioning.. we have seen stock piles drop to below 400 for the first time now and yes there have been resupplies through the day.. but whenever any new supply does land it is quickly outstripped if the price is lowered... if this was not the case why then are we at such a depleted level.

Fact.. ANET forecast demand, they employ people to analyse those trends and how best to manipulate such trends, they have to in order to create revenue streams.. When they forecast that they take into account what is in the system and what is potentially going to come into the system by looking at their account activity and previous trends of a similar nature and thus they generate a forecast of the expected demand. They will also forecast how long that demand is likely to be there before the market is finally able to normalise itself, which they know can only be achieved by extreme lucky streaks, volume rerolling for the sigil or lucky loot drops in volume and equally lucky salvage success... or demand finally drops sufficiently by loss of interest or players finally completing the sets in enough numbers over time. It is basically all just a big game of chance base on prdictions and trends with a few actuals thrown in for good measure.

Bottom line all we can do is make our own predictions on the numbers and the scale of the issue because that's all we can do.. no one is denying that.. but neither can anyone deny that the kind of depletion levels we are already seeing cannot possibly be resupplied in any significant way in order to outstrip demand anytime soon because there is no viable or reliable methods in which to do so in the kind of numbers needed to affect.. 1 - demand, 2 - price 3 - time to complete

Like I said its highly likely by tomorrow very few people will even be able to bite the bullet and buy the 25 sigils outright from the TP anyway.. perhaps then it will become clear that what is being claimed in this thread is actually hitting closer to the mark than what some are claiming is garbage.OR like I said try taking a stab yourself at some maths using some very conservative numbers and see what you come up with.

My guesstimate is that for an active player base of around 250k with a around 80k of those interested in completing this collection were going to need to see around 2million+ sigils pass through the NPC's hands in the priory for those 80k players to be happy.We already know there was only 3k ish sigils available when the content got released and we know there have not been any significant increases in stock since. So we know if everyone decided to rush purchase via TP it couldn't be done.. we also know that there is no direct source of supply except via 1 sigil at lvl 64. Finallty we also know there was likely very few players who had their own sufficient stock of sigils to push down the demand otherwise we would not be where we are today at less than 400 sigils left to play with.

If the TP could resupply even at 50k sigils per month that still would not be enough for everyone to complete via direct purchase anytime soon, but of course there is luck via the forge and there is the ability to buy lvl 80 tokens from the cashcow.. as well as lucky loot drops and salvage success.. So lets add another 10k into the equation per month.. so 60k (personally I am not confident we will get anywhere near half of that, but whatever)60k x 12 is 720k sigils compared to the 2million ish needed less what players already had prior to content release.. doesn't bode well imo, hence logic still dictates therefore there is and will continue to be a major deficiency in the stock levels vs demand for some time to come because the market simply cannot replenish enough stock quickly enough for players to complete the sets in some kind of happy timeframe, certainly not until the demand finally reaches a point that allows the market to start catching up.. At that point prices will begin to fall a little more noticeably.. but how long will it take to get to this point.. I say at least 9 months best guess if we could get 60k supply each month maybe a little less, maybe a lot more, but there will still be players stuck waiting for a whiles after imoOf course if this is anywhere close in terms of the timescale time, then as I said the demand will likely drop off a lot sooner because experience suggests time is the killer of all things and MMO's are not immune to that, they have to move content on and the next big thing will soon take precedence.

Anyhow that's my 2 pence worth, time will tell

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Tyson.5160 said:Derailing...

I asked what your reasoning is for even caring if they changed how the sigil is obtained. You never answered. You called me naive and then continue to mock me. It’s just like the raid forum all over again.

I don't care ... but I don't see how that's relevant to the thread; you don't get that what I care about (or you or anyone else) is irrelevant to the way Anet implements the game. They didn't decide on this sigil because of players caring; there is some other reason they chose and not frivolously either.

If the sigil is available for people to craft the armor, that's all that is necessary. If Anet thinks there needs to be an alternate way to obtain it, I'm sure they will implement it, just like they did with MC's. But make no mistake ... no one player can say we are there yet, or ever will because it's not data we have access to make that determination. Anyone that claims Anet needs to intervene NOW because of some number they see is lacking a clear understanding of how the market works in the game.

Sure, but I never did say that Anet needed to intervene, I just wanted a course of direction. Will they act or not, that’s all I have been asking. I never demanded they change it.

Look, I’m sorry I pissed you off, I really am. I apologize, I’m just looking for some direction from the people piloting the ship.

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Yes it can exist.. when there are lines of supply in which to allow it do so.. there is no viable or reliable lines of supply here.. you seem to think luck will see this through.. I am not so confident and it is not all about price. The price is where it is now only an immediate mass flux of sigils can reverse that.. and that isn't going to happen and ANET aren't going to do anything to appease this, because it is absolutely working as intended.

If it was that easy to boost the supply into both the game and the market, it would of already had a noticeable effect not see stock deplete to such a levesl because there would be very little drop and very little gain.. that kind of equilibrium cannot exit if stock is being depleted faster than supply can catch up.What will happen in this instance is there will be periods of stagnation followed by panic buying as soon as anything comes in.. but of course even the power traders begin to deplete their own stocks and trickle feeds will keep the demand high for longer.. the perfect storm is thus created, it then becomes about how long this storm can be controlled in order to push enough gem sales as possible.This is not some new ingenious idea that has been dreamt up, this happens in every MMO, and if this is the new status quo I hope we all have deep pockets and flexible friends.

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@"Tetterwing.3981" said:There are currently only 300 sigils and the cheapest one is 13 gold. Insert sigh here....

They're up to 16g with around 300 still left, you know how that's possible? Whoever bought 15,000 of them before anyone else had a chance to need them is literally manipulating and controlling the entire market. It's flabbergasting that ArenaNet thinks this is okay and/or can't think of a solution. I can think of 3 ez: change the number required to craft, put them up as a daily meta reward for something, make them craftable.

Regardless they need to do SOMETHING, this inability of theirs to do anything at all to cleanup the mess they had to know they were creating is hugely frustrating.

"Hey guys we actually for once created a fun, interesting questline for you!""Woa, this is great!""It sure is, buuut remember when you're invested in it you are going to have to invest about 500g to complete it""But uh... gatekeeping the majority of this great questline behind absurd gold requirements to just make rich players richer isn't really great gameplay""We know we just wanted to get you used to how it is in real life!""Oh uh, thanks ArenaNet now we get screwed by the ultra rich outside and in the game""Yup! Make sure to spend money on us!""Uuuuugh"

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@Tyson.5160 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Why are you arguing again?

This isn't an argument, it's a discussion. Clearly people need some educated perspective on what's relevant here.

Unless you got something topical to discuss, why are YOU asking me this question? Don't like the discussion when people aren't agreeing with you and you don't know how to respond to them? Maybe that's an indication of something.

And a nerve was hit.

Edit: Don’t care if people agree with me or not. You seem to talk to me as if you are a mind reader, Obtena, like as if you know what I’m thinking. This is not the case, like yesterday your presuming again.

As much as I don't agree with Obtena on this issue.. I do however agree with his response to your question.:)

Discussion is great, I for one know that I don't have all the answers in this, and definitely don't have all the absolute data, but then again neither does anyone else.. its about how we are analysing what has happened.. bad collection method, inflated pricing, TP flips, lack of supply and resupply by chance and then predicting what going to happen or not happen.As much as we might not be in total agreement or disagreement.. its always good to share those views - even if one side likes to think everything anyone else is talking "garbage", but that's all good.

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@Bloodstealer.5978 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Why are you arguing again?

This isn't an argument, it's a discussion. Clearly people need some educated perspective on what's relevant here.

Unless you got something topical to discuss, why are YOU asking me this question? Don't like the discussion when people aren't agreeing with you and you don't know how to respond to them? Maybe that's an indication of something.

And a nerve was hit.

Edit: Don’t care if people agree with me or not. You seem to talk to me as if you are a mind reader, Obtena, like as if you know what I’m thinking. This is not the case, like yesterday your presuming again.

As much as I don't agree with Obtena on this issue.. I do however agree with his response to your question.:)

Discussion is great, I for one know that I don't have all the answers in this, and definitely don't have all the absolute data, but then again neither does anyone else.. its about how we are analysing what has happened.. bad collection method, inflated pricing, TP flips, lack of supply and resupply by chance and then predicting what going to happen or not happen.As much as we might not be in total agreement or disagreement.. its always good to share those views - even if one side likes to think everything anyone else is talking "garbage", but that's all good.

Water under the bridge. ?

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