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Superior Sigil of Nullification [Merged]

Kirkas.1430

By Kirkas.1430
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Obtena.7952

Obtena.7952

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@Bloodstealer.5978 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Yes it can exist.. when there are lines of supply in which to allow it do so.. there is no viable or reliable lines of supply here..

And I don't think that's anything but a biased guess to serve your desire for change, because you don't know where the supply is sitting ... or where it's not sitting. You don't know enough about what's going on to conclude this is a problem. I don't think any of us ever will know enough to be able to be confident on making a definitive statement that the situation we have needs to be addressed. Maybe time is all we need. We don't know ...

But Anet does have that data and when they see availability is a problem, we KNOW they will do something because it's how they behave. But make no mistake, they don't have targets for pricing. This is no different than MC's or leather farm in Doric Lake ...

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Bloodstealer.5978

Bloodstealer.5978

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@Tyson.5160 said:

@"Alek Seven.2374" said:Sorry if its in French, this is what I have right at the moment i am writhing this :
KFCj20S.jpg
PS : I'm on NA.

that..is not at all okay by any means...a grand total of four people can finish the armor with that many listed O_O

Yeah the supply is starting to dry up, it seems.Yep just saw that drop .. and its now reached 15GOLD gold give or take some shrapnel.

Lets hope this is the storm before the calm.. oh wait that's not right is it :)

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Dante.1763

Dante.1763

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Yes it can exist.. when there are lines of supply in which to allow it do so.. there is no viable or reliable lines of supply here..

And I don't think that's anything but a biased guess to serve your desire for change, because you don't know where the supply is sitting ... or where it's not sitting. You don't know enough about what's going on to conclude this is a problem. I don't think any of us ever will know enough to be able to be confident on making a definitive statement that the situation we have needs to be addressed. Maybe time is all we need. We don't know ...

But Anet does have that data and when they see availability is a problem, we KNOW they will do something because it's how they behave. But make no mistake, they don't have targets for pricing. This is no different than MC's or leather farm in Doric Lake ...

Only sometimes do they do something, and they never do something quickly so, even though we dont know if this will remain a problem(i think it will, theirs only about 125 listed currently, and its having issues staying at 300. But we have no way to see the incoming supply to the entire game.) Its safe to assume that even if they do believe its a problem, the fix wont come out for a month or two.

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Bloodstealer.5978

Bloodstealer.5978

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.

And that doesn't matter. The supply could be ZERO at any time ... but every single person wanting sigils could in theory have gotten exactly how many they wanted. Your view is one based on misunderstanding.

If the supply is 0, how are people obtaining sigils...

Easy ... flow of sigils IN = flow of sigils OUT. This situation can exist with zero sigils on the market. It's not about volume. It's not about price. When Flow IN < Flow out, THEN we have a problem, but only if the volume of sigils ingame (NOT just on the market) is very low. People need to stop trying to predict what is happening to justify some urgent, irrational fix, just because they don't like the price of sigils.

Yes it can exist.. when there are lines of supply in which to allow it do so.. there is no viable or reliable lines of supply here..

And I don't think that's anything but a biased guess to serve your desire for change, because you don't know where the supply is sitting ... or where it's not sitting. You don't know enough about what's going on to conclude this is a problem. I don't think any of us ever will know enough to be able to be confident on making a definitive statement that the situation we have needs to be addressed. Maybe time is all we need. We don't know ...

But Anet does have that data and when they see availability is a problem, we KNOW they will do something because it's how they behave. But make no mistake, they don't have targets for pricing. This is no different than MC's or leather farm in Doric Lake ...

OMG. this is nothing like those ..

Your either ignoring the fact or simply being blasé about the fact this sigil has no reliable source of supply.. its major source is luck nothing more and you cannot possibly call that a biased guess it is fact!This is nothing like MC's or especially nothing like leather farming. There are guaranteed supplies of both into the game and into the market via daily logins, daily mystic forgers, event rewards, levelling and map completion rewards,pvp/wvw reward tracks, farming and random drops from chests and with Mystic coins greater chance of getting via the mystic clover forge recipe than actually getting clovers :)

How can we get these sigils..yes 1 guaranteed at lvl 64, chance lucky exotic drops with the sigil in them and then hope you get lucky when salvaging it if your not using a 100% BL salvage kit.. and lastly a hell of a lot of luck and carpal tunnel via the toilet

This is very, very different to MC and Leather.. in fact that's almost as funny as the mithril idea earlier today.The reason those other materials have a stable price within the market is because they have lines of supply to keep supply and demand reasonably balanced. MC's only jumped in price from the old days because they actually got given some permanent demand in the game where that guaranteed accumulation could have an outlet in volume.... oohh and less we forget MC's have that added twist of supply borne out of the mass creation of additional accounts granting additional daily login rewards., so there prices are where they are in game and have been relatively stable for some timeThis new collection is finite and the artificial inflation of the prices was planned and when that collection become irrelevant the price will recede back again, unless some other purpose is found for it and no new supply lines implemented to support it... but that is a topic for another time I guess.

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Bloodstealer.5978

Bloodstealer.5978

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@"Obtena.7952" said:Yes, that's true; their behaviour has shown it takes time to fix these things; I don't dispute that.

I will dispute that any amount of complaining is going to change that length of time it will need to fix it.

I would rather think it takes time to fix because its working as intended until its run its course.No one is complaining about the length of time it takes to fix it, in fact don't think anyone realistically think this will be "fixed", because the fix is already in place....

The reason I don't think ANET will act on this is for that very reason and because this collection is finite, once its run its course the sigil looses it shine.. hence why I believe this to be artificially induced for the sole purpose of steering gemsales as much as possible for as long as possible.There is simply no logic behind choosing an arbitrary "weapon sigil" for an armour collection other than it was a prime piece of isolated real estate open to easy price manipulation.

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Bloodstealer.5978

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@Obtena.7952 said:The point about the MC's and leather is to provide you with evidence that Anet addresses these problems, not to compare supply sources.

If I were to be risky and speculate ... I would start looking for other sigils that matched this ones profile prior to the release and start buying.

Both these items already had a better supply and demand situation because both had permanent volume usage and guaranteed methods of supply.All ANET did was introduce a leather farm to increase supply .. after the horse had bolted iirc and added additional volume usage of MC's where that easy oversupply would have a greater outlet in game.

This sigil however has no real usage outside of this collection.. if it did it would not be considered vendor trash, hence very little stock within the market to begin with. No one cared for its scarcity of supply, if there was any kind of demand ANET would not of picked it for sure.

So yes I agree ANET do put fixes in, but not always in a timely fashion :)

BTW interesting sudden increase of 200 sigils pumped into the TP... I guess even power traders saw the need to keep sales moving, even if it meant dropping the price by a gold or two :)or perhaps they too saw the price creeping to high to a point that ANET would likely feel the need to intervene and risk a large price drop :)

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Obtena.7952

Obtena.7952

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Again, i'm not comparing the supply demand situation between MC/leather and this sigil because as you provide the reasons yourself, it's not relevant to do so (completely different use profile, etc....). The illustration was to demonstrate Anet's willingness to fix these issues ... IF there is one. I am aware Anet takes time to deal with these situations. The lesson here for people, if they haven't figured it out yet, is that you shouldn't be so quick to rush out and get your new stuffs day one. You just feed the profiteers and don't allow yourself time for a more favourable situation if Anet thinks it's warranted.

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Tyson.5160

Tyson.5160

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@Diak Atoli.2085 said:

@Tyson.5160 said:So this is the most expensive sigil in the game and you need 25 of them.

Actually, it's the third most expensive. ;)

The Superior Sigil of Karka Slaying is still the most expensive, followed by the Superior Sigil of Concentration.

True, but honestly, how many of these sigils do you need. In the case of nullification you need 25 of them.

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foozlesprite.8051

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Hmm, maybe they could add it as a once-daily reward for a lesser-done/succeeded meta, something like Serpent's Ire or Maws of Torment? It would help drop the price a little bit, but people could farm it over time if they wanted to put in a reasonable amount of effort. It probably would have been smarter to have each step of the collection use a different cheap sigil so that prices and demand would go up for multiple things, but not as dramatically.

My spouse bought the sigils when they were 5g each, and by the time I got home they were 15g. All I really want is the hat for now, but since it's the next-to-last piece I'd have to get 20 of them for it. It's a little bizarre that the leggings come early on, without requiring sigils, but I guess I'll just have to wait :(

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Tyson.5160

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@foozlesprite.8051 said:Hmm, maybe they could add it as a once-daily reward for a lesser-done/succeeded meta, something like Serpent's Ire or Maws of Torment? It would help drop the price a little bit, but people could farm it over time if they wanted to put in a reasonable amount of effort. It probably would have been smarter to have each step of the collection use a different cheap sigil so that prices and demand would go up for multiple things, but not as dramatically.

My spouse bought the sigils when they were 5g each, and by the time I got home they were 15g. All I really want is the hat for now, but since it's the next-to-last piece I'd have to get 20 of them for it. It's a little bizarre that the leggings come early on, without requiring sigils, but I guess I'll just have to wait :(

The collection is a little odd, however attaching the sigil to PoF daily metas would certainly make me start doing them.

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Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

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@Bloodstealer.5978 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

Of course it doesn't measure how many are exactly coming in.. only ANET have the figure but there is no logical way it can be anything substantial because supply is almost depleted already... you can argue that with science all you like but that fact is undeniable.There is no way to craft the sigil there is only luck and a single 1 sigil per lvl 64 reward to place into your scientific equations otherwise, if there were then maybe your opinion that there is potentially more supply coming into play than what we can see at any given point through the day would have some real mileage... yes there is some, but not enough.

Of course.. I forgot about the huge volume of players burning through all their tomes and buying up those 2k gem lvl up tokens 25+ times to ease their own pain and that of others ... yeah I think that's going to make a substantial dent in this issue, my bad..... in all seriousness there will be some that do that I know, but hardly enough to make even a small dent.

So, there in lies your problem, there is no viable, reliable supply route to market it is reliant on luck, so again try arguing that fact with science all you like, but luck is fickle and it only takes a few outliers on the wrong side to throw your science right out the window and in this case there will be many.If there was any substantial supply being generated, it is not being supplanted into the market, at least not in the numbers to make a difference to the gap in supply vs demand and that gap in unlikely to shorten anytime soon unless, like I have said players simply lose interest in it all together or a sudden pouring in of sigils from some flippers occurs (why would they do that.. they wouldn't) or everyone gets really lucky in the game of chance....At the rate that stock that was already accounted for in the system and all resupply that has occurred thus far, is being depleted, its more than possible that by tomorrow very few players will even be able to buy enough sigils to complete the armour set even if they were prepared to bite the bullet and pay the inflated prices.. unless your still confident there is some magic secret way of resupplying the market in the kind of numbers it needs and hope demand has fallen significantly for such a replenishment to have an effect.

Nah, sorry.. you can throw science at this as much as you like but the simple fact is there is no viable means to supply the market in the kinds of numbers needed, which is why I stand by the notion that the market is only being bolstered in the hundreds per day not the many thousands that it requires to ease the deficiency in costs and time for many players that were not able to take advantage of the price and/or the initial stocks already in the market at release... and that is why this is such a grossly unfair collection methodology ANET hase introduced.. its designed to utilise power trading and supply deprivation to induce a cashgrab via gem sales for as long as possible imo, but that comes with a risk if enough players loose interest fast in this, which would not surprise me in the slightest.

The 10K wasn't a serious number. You do not know how many sigils are sold daily. You're only comparing data between two points of time when it was collected. You do not see what occurred during that time and what occurred could have been a zero-sum exchange. You are still fixated on that current supply is somehow the sole indicator on how many sigils are exchanged. It's not.

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Atticus.7194

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@Tyson.5160 said:

@foozlesprite.8051 said:Hmm, maybe they could add it as a once-daily reward for a lesser-done/succeeded meta, something like Serpent's Ire or Maws of Torment? It would help drop the price a little bit, but people could farm it over time if they wanted to put in a reasonable amount of effort. It probably would have been smarter to have each step of the collection use a different cheap sigil so that prices and demand would go up for multiple things, but not as dramatically.

My spouse bought the sigils when they were 5g each, and by the time I got home they were 15g. All I really want is the hat for now, but since it's the next-to-last piece I'd have to get 20 of them for it. It's a little bizarre that the leggings come early on, without requiring sigils, but I guess I'll just have to wait :(

The collection is a little odd, however attaching the sigil to PoF daily metas would certainly make me start doing them.

This.

It's such an ez organic solution that solves the issue and pumps much needed interest back into the game. If ArenaNet is smart they'll do this.

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Just a flesh wound.3589

Just a flesh wound.3589

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@Bloodstealer.5978 said:

@Obtena.7952 said:The point about the MC's and leather is to provide you with evidence that Anet addresses these problems, not to compare supply sources.

If I were to be risky and speculate ... I would start looking for other sigils that matched this ones profile prior to the release and start buying.

Both these items already had a better supply and demand situation because both had permanent volume usage and guaranteed methods of supply.All ANET did was introduce a leather farm to increase supply .. after the horse had bolted iirc and added additional volume usage of MC's where that easy oversupply would have a greater outlet in game.

This sigil however has no real usage outside of this collection.. if it did it would not be considered vendor trash, hence very little stock within the market to begin with. No one cared for its scarcity of supply, if there was any kind of demand ANET would not of picked it for sure.

So yes I agree ANET do put fixes in, but not always in a timely fashion :)

BTW interesting sudden increase of 200 sigils pumped into the TP... I guess even power traders saw the need to keep sales moving, even if it meant dropping the price by a gold or two :)
or perhaps they too saw the price creeping to high to a point that ANET would likely feel the need to intervene and risk a large price drop :)

Or perhaps it’s inventory from people realizing that they had sigils that were worth something. A guildie of mine this afternoon pinged 140 sigils into chat and told other guild members to check to see if they have any as it was selling for 10 plus gold each.

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yann.1946

yann.1946

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@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:

@Obtena.7952 said:The point about the MC's and leather is to provide you with evidence that Anet addresses these problems, not to compare supply sources.

If I were to be risky and speculate ... I would start looking for other sigils that matched this ones profile prior to the release and start buying.

Both these items already had a better supply and demand situation because both had permanent volume usage and guaranteed methods of supply.All ANET did was introduce a leather farm to increase supply .. after the horse had bolted iirc and added additional volume usage of MC's where that easy oversupply would have a greater outlet in game.

This sigil however has no real usage outside of this collection.. if it did it would not be considered vendor trash, hence very little stock within the market to begin with. No one cared for its scarcity of supply, if there was any kind of demand ANET would not of picked it for sure.

So yes I agree ANET do put fixes in, but not always in a timely fashion :)

BTW interesting sudden increase of 200 sigils pumped into the TP... I guess even power traders saw the need to keep sales moving, even if it meant dropping the price by a gold or two :)
or perhaps they too saw the price creeping to high to a point that ANET would likely feel the need to intervene and risk a large price drop :)

Or perhaps it’s inventory from people realizing that they had sigils that were worth something. A guildie of mine this afternoon pinged 140 sigils into chat and told other guild members to check to see if they have any as it was selling for 10 plus gold each.

That's a good point, how many people haven't realized that the sigil is expensive now.Maybe this was done to increase the good loot somebody can get

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Gop.8713

Gop.8713

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@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:

@Obtena.7952 said:The point about the MC's and leather is to provide you with evidence that Anet addresses these problems, not to compare supply sources.

If I were to be risky and speculate ... I would start looking for other sigils that matched this ones profile prior to the release and start buying.

Both these items already had a better supply and demand situation because both had permanent volume usage and guaranteed methods of supply.All ANET did was introduce a leather farm to increase supply .. after the horse had bolted iirc and added additional volume usage of MC's where that easy oversupply would have a greater outlet in game.

This sigil however has no real usage outside of this collection.. if it did it would not be considered vendor trash, hence very little stock within the market to begin with. No one cared for its scarcity of supply, if there was any kind of demand ANET would not of picked it for sure.

So yes I agree ANET do put fixes in, but not always in a timely fashion :)

BTW interesting sudden increase of 200 sigils pumped into the TP... I guess even power traders saw the need to keep sales moving, even if it meant dropping the price by a gold or two :)
or perhaps they too saw the price creeping to high to a point that ANET would likely feel the need to intervene and risk a large price drop :)

Or perhaps it’s inventory from people realizing that they had sigils that were worth something. A guildie of mine this afternoon pinged 140 sigils into chat and told other guild members to check to see if they have any as it was selling for 10 plus gold each.

140 sounds like he's pinging off the tp :p

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rrusse.7058

rrusse.7058

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@Ayrilana.1396 said:The issue is solely on the cost of a single sigil.

I agree that one of the major issues is the cost the sigils themselves, that plus the very method the sigils are obtained. It's expensive and getting them essentially comes down to a dice roll. Essentially the same way precursors were obtained previously.

The system was so obnoxious that it was eventually changed so players could actually make progress towards their goal little by little. This of course leads into the way we have collections now and the collection for the armor set in question today. With this single step Arenanet is in a way undoing the point of having a collection quest in the first place.

So I agree with you, it's the price plus methods.

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Jumpin Lumpix.6108

Jumpin Lumpix.6108

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This is actually pretty mean to get you half way through a very time consuming, repetitive collection, only to drop on us that we need almost 25 of these random superior sigils, that aren't obtainable any other way then the TP. I would of felt better if they had just made the armor cost 50-100g per piece, rather then put in an item that you need that can run out on the TP and constantly fluctuates in price.

I actually have the money to buy this easily but its just stupid and annoying, why not gate the rest of the armor behind something that requires skill, like serious solo skill to complete. A jumping puzzle, maybe a boss you have to 1v1 but its all extremely difficult, or something. At least just stick it behind a flat gold cost.

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Ol Nik.2518

Ol Nik.2518

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@Obtena.7952 said:

@Bloodstealer.5978 said:The problem of price is the intended side effect of this collection and players will be upset by the price, but also how long it is going to realistically take many to complete.. because there just isn't enough supply or enough supply potential to fix either of the issues.ANET risk players loosing interest in this faster than they hoped because aside from the steer to buy gems and convert to gold to pay the grossly inflated prices.. they wont be able to buy the sigils anyway when supplies hit rock bottom and rely on trickle feeding through in game.Less than 1k left in the system, small amounts coming in daily so far... even if we said there had been 10k sigils pass through the TP since the collection launched (which I am fairly sure there hasn't) that still only accounts for around 400 ish players completing sets plus some that had stashes already or bought stock in the first few hours the recipe became known .. now that initial stock that was in the system prior to the content release has been depleted we are left to hope more players have been sat on stashes or we all get really lucky in the toilet, otherwise it going to be a very slow, very expensive collection.

Can you even prove that it’s a small amount that’s being generated each day? No. You cannot.

Oh c'mon, really!You don't need to be a rocket scientist to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand.. unless your seeing some upward trend in supply that no one else is.. of course players could be sat on them hoping for a further significant price hike.. but I think we both know that dog has now had its day , only small spikes up and downs will likely be seen now. The price we are seeing now is where it is pretty much going to be for some time to come unless there is a drastic drop off in demand through loss of interest.. very possible imo.If your still not convinced try using some maths to determine the mystic forge odds of minor sigil to major sigil conversion, then major sigil to superior sigil of nullification... good luck with those numbers. Then lets ask ANET how many players are buying up hundreds of 2k gem lvl up tokens to feed all our sigil habits... that could be an interesting number for sure. Then take a look at the TP history on the sigil 1 day prior to release and where we are now.. if the supply was anything more than lousy we would not be at 900 sigils now.. it has barely got over 3k sigils early on and its dropped ever since... so how can you determine anything other than supply in is in anyway greater than a hundreds per day, rather than the thousands per day required... please counter with something other than.."you don't know, I don't know"..

EDIT - Apologies 840 Sigils now not 900, whoops 801 now.....

That doesn't measure how many sigils are made or consumed daily ... The fact is that you can't measure the 'flow' of mats with the information we have. It appears to me that the only requirement to determine that supply is extremely slow and what little there is coming in, is outstripped by the demand is degree in garbage science. Anyone with a real background in science would know that simply measuring volumes doesn't indicate rates of change.

Here is a scenario ... I have 300 at the beginning of the day ... I end up with 400 at the end of the day ... what is the number coming in and out that day?

here is a hint ... how many combinations of (QTY IN, QTY OUT) numbers can result in that scenario?

The bottomline is that you or me or anyone else does NOT have the data to conclude there is something wrong here. Again, even if there is something wrong, we know Anet will do something about it, like they have done with MC's. This isn't a price OR a volume driven decision. It's based on supply and demand, i.e., how many flow in and how many flow out. WE can't measure that with the data we have unless someone with a non-garbage science degree starts thinking about how to do it (it can be done, but it's nothing like what most people are even capable of imagining)

You are correct, we, the players, do not have enough data to get the exact numbers for how many sigils are acquired, used, or change hands. However, it does not mean that we cannot make educated guesses. Let me offer you some indirect evidence that 'there is something wrong here'.

  1. GW2Efficiency* statisticsAs of the time of this writing only 1 679 out of 181 996 users managed to complete The Convergence of Sorrow II: Requiem collection. This is less than 1%.ImageTwo days ago there were 1242 people who completed the collection. I admit, this number looks good -- a 35% increase. But it is still a very tiny percent of registered GW2efficiency users. Moreover, unlock statistics for the associated collections shows that the number of people who managed to complete them dramatically decreases on the 3rd step, which requires 10 Sigils of Nullification.

  2. Lack of characters dressed in a very popular and very new set of skins even in areas with restricted access (e.g. Mistlock Sanctuary).

  3. No reliable way to obtain 25 Sigils of Nullification outside of TP

  4. Atypical pattern of price and supply changes on TPI am not an economist, but in my experience the Sigil of Nullification does not fit the regular pattern of overhyped prices on items with decent supply. While the rest of items are returning to their pre-patch levels this sigil does not show any significant downward movement. The average number of available sigils and trades (as far as we can see) also does not increase. Of course, the API updates only once in 2 minutes, iirc. So it is possible that thousands of sigils are sold and bought without it being registered. But where do they disappear? People just hoard them in hopes of 100 g price tag?

  5. Massive outcry here and on Reddit. The Requiem skins are very popular. People really want them. But they have a really hard time farming the sigils.

If you really want to do it right you can also conduct a massive survey. Ask people in game about the sigils, how many of them they have, how many people completed the collection, and so on. Even without ArenaNet's data you should have a pretty good idea about the supply, demand, and consumption levels.

*****Of course, not everyone and their mum are registered at GW2Efficiency. But those who are are very likely to be slightly more dedicated than an average GW2 player. Yet, only a few of them managed to complete an immensly popular collection.

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Alurazle.5430

Alurazle.5430

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I was pissed to find out on the second part of the collection that sigil of Nullification was 10 gold a piece...I have went from really excited doing the collection to annoyed waiting for the Ziya event (which turned out to be fun as heck) then to being annoyed with the fact that there isn't even a recipe for them -.- really anet!!!

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Holykitten.3064

Holykitten.3064

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@"Ol Nik.2518" said:Snip

Just to add a couple other Statistics;

152,654 (75.68%) of the total accounts registered on Gw2 Efficiency actually own Path of Fire, ergo, has access to the episode "A Star to Guide us".

At the time of writing, The Convergence of Sorrow I: Elegy has been completed by 15,212 of those 152.6K accounts (9.9650%). This collection costs no more than 20g and a bit of running around. This needs completing before you can even start Convergence of Sorrow II: Requiem.

So, of those 15,212 accounts that have played A Star to Guide Us and have completed CoS: Elegy, 1,679 (11.0373%) have gone on to complete Convergence of Sorrow II: Requiem. and this number does increase daily.

Just adding a bit of context to statistics which are too broad imo.

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Bloodstealer.5978

Bloodstealer.5978

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@Just a flesh wound.3589 said:

@Obtena.7952 said:The point about the MC's and leather is to provide you with evidence that Anet addresses these problems, not to compare supply sources.

If I were to be risky and speculate ... I would start looking for other sigils that matched this ones profile prior to the release and start buying.

Both these items already had a better supply and demand situation because both had permanent volume usage and guaranteed methods of supply.All ANET did was introduce a leather farm to increase supply .. after the horse had bolted iirc and added additional volume usage of MC's where that easy oversupply would have a greater outlet in game.

This sigil however has no real usage outside of this collection.. if it did it would not be considered vendor trash, hence very little stock within the market to begin with. No one cared for its scarcity of supply, if there was any kind of demand ANET would not of picked it for sure.

So yes I agree ANET do put fixes in, but not always in a timely fashion :)

BTW interesting sudden increase of 200 sigils pumped into the TP... I guess even power traders saw the need to keep sales moving, even if it meant dropping the price by a gold or two :)
or perhaps they too saw the price creeping to high to a point that ANET would likely feel the need to intervene and risk a large price drop :)

Or perhaps it’s inventory from people realizing that they had sigils that were worth something. A guildie of mine this afternoon pinged 140 sigils into chat and told other guild members to check to see if they have any as it was selling for 10 plus gold each.

Absolutely.. I already said I had some as well.. not a huge amount but some.That's the issue.. though, because there is no reliable source of resupply within game we are kind of reliant on there being some lying around on top of what we already know was in the market at the time.. once that stock has been depleted, were left to chance and that isn't going to feed enough sigils into the system in any kind of timely fashion and certainly while the demand and subsequently the price remains so disjointed in comparison.I guess we will just have to wait it out and hope there is some magic stashes we never knew we had or we all get on a lasting lucky streak in game.

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