Leablo.2651 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 In 2 different cases so far I have picked the winner and not received any achievement progress, for the daily, annual, or one-time achievements.Both times I had made a multi-selection but not all five moas. I suspect therefore that the game does not properly check for your picks.Needless to say, when the entire outcome is random and you don't reward correct guesses then it is simply stealing currency from players and wasting our time having to wait for additional events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

Illconceived Was Na.9781 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 @"Jayden Reese.9542" said:Why would you bet multiple but not all 5.The expected cost is the same regardless of how many bets you make.Bet on one with a 20% chance of winning takes "an average" of 5 races and 5 bets, or 100 taffy.Bet on five with a 100% chance takes exactly 1 race with 5 bets, or 100 taffy.It's similar for 2, 3, & 4 bets. The difference is the potential in spending less. Making one bet, there's a 20% chance of needing only 20 taffy; bet twice and it's a 40% chance of needing only 40. Still a gamble, with less chance of failure.so idk if race/adventure/arena cancels out bets.Race & adventures do not; you're still in Hoelbrak/main. The Arena does, as you leave the city (which you can see because the bet-related icons disappear). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

icy.9250 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 @Illconceived Was Na.9781 said:@"Jayden Reese.9542" said:Why would you bet multiple but not all 5.The expected cost is the same regardless of how many bets you make.Bet on one with a 20% chance of winning takes "an average" of 5 races and 5 bets, or 100 taffy.One tiny correction -- each bet is 10 taffy, so this would take 50 taffy in totalBet on five with a 100% chance takes exactly 1 race with 5 bets, or 100 taffy.50 taffy cost, and if it's a daily, 100 taffy win (profit +50). If possible and RNG dailies are kind, do this method Moa Racing only when it's a daily, and just once.It's similar for 2, 3, & 4 bets. The difference is the potential in spending less. Making one bet, there's a 20% chance of needing only 20 taffy; bet twice and it's a 40% chance of needing only 40. Still a gamble, with less chance of failure.Ok, so let's consider how one does across five races in total, with consistent bets. Things are more complicated than they seem ;DConsistent 1 bet 20%, 32%, 38.4%, 40.96%, 40.96% of succeeding exactly once after one, two, three, four, five races, respectively. Note that this is different from instead calculating at least once, and the percent would be quite a bit higher. Cost up to 50 taffy.Consistent 2 bet 40%, 25.92%, 43.2%, 34.56%, 25.92%. Cost up to 100 taffy.Consistent 3 bet 60%, 48%, 28.8%, 15.36%, 7.68%. Cost up to 150 taffy.Consistent 4 bet 80%, 32%, 9.6%, 2.56%, 0.64% . Cost up to 200 taffy, with very small chance you'd still need a win after the first couple. More likely you'd pay 40 or 80 taffy in total.Consistent 5 bet 100%, 0%, 0%, 0%, 0%. No point playing more than once. 50 taffy cost after just the first one.Some of these percents might at first seem strange, but it's logical if you think about it (chance of exactly one win after multiple trials, remember).Now, one may be more interested in at least one win after 5 races. This is just an expansion of 1 minus "not winning at all*. 1-(chance of fail from single event)^{trials}.Consistent 1 bet 67.23% chance of winning at least once after five races. So this would be calculated from 1-(0.8)^{5}Consistent 2 bet 92.22% chance of winning at least once after five races. From 1-(0.6)^{5}Consistent 3 bet 98.98% chance of winning at least once after five races.Consistent 4 bet 99.97% chance of winning at least once after five races.Consistent 5 bet 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

icy.9250 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Also, back on topic, would probably help to have screenshots ofyour bets (e.g. Kappa dialogue window with the ones you've chosen now missing as options)in-game text from Announcer saying, for example, "Mystic Forgery wins!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

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