Black Lion chest advanced notice

[Daddicus.6128]

ArenaNet, can we PLEASE get advanced notice of when BL chests will change contents? Even more importantly, can we get advanced notice of what the second guaranteed item will be?

I really want to be able to intelligently decide whether to open chests now, or wait until the next "season". The statuettes are fine, since they never change. But, the second guaranteed item really matters. Some of them, I just have no interest in. Others are "must haves". Others, like the current one, are in the category "not very useful, but probably OK to buy; I might find uses for XYZ."

[Tzarakiel.7490]

People probably buy more keys if they don't know what the contents in the next set will be. There is little chance Anet would ever announce the changes in the future.

[Rasimir.6239]

I have a couple of guildies that used to speculate in ticket weapon skins. They would try to be in game whenever an update hit, then check the patchnotes before patching and either use accumulated keys/place buy and sell orders before or after the update, depending on what the release notes told about the next chest version. That's about as much as an advance warning as you are likely to get, since everything else will increase the chance of speculators messing with the market.

[Glider.5792]

They change ussualy every 4 weeks. Maybe 2 if festival comes. Its extremly easy to tell when they will change.

PS. They will change next week.

[Ayakaru.6583]

It's called gambling for a reason, i suppose

[Danikat.8537]

@Ayakaru.6583 said:It's called gambling for a reason, i suppose

Yep. Black Lion Chests are designed specifically to make it harder (and therefore more expensive) to get the items you want. Giving players enough information to make an informed decision about when to buy or use keys is the opposite of that.

Which isn't to say I'm against Anet doing it - I've love them to do this, or better yet make everything in the black lion chests tradable and/or sold directly in the gem store so no one has to gamble if they don't want to. But it's highly unlikely they'd do it because it's more profitable to keep players guessing.

[Teratus.2859]

From memory/experience the chest contents tend to change every couple of weeks, usually after a tuesday update.

The guaranteed drop items however seems to change every month or when a new festival or big update is added to the game, usually themed to fit that update.. such as festival items etc.

The way I do thing is I save my keys for when there is something specific I want in the chests.Usually a mount skin or something.If there isn't anything specific you really want in the current contents then save your keys.

[Inculpatus cedo.9234]

You can find a list of when changes occurred in Black Lion Chests here: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/historical

[Asum.4960]

@Daddicus.6128 said:I really want to be able to intelligently decide whether to open chests

I can help with that part. The answer is no, don't.

But seriously, considering the entire business model of these gambling loot boxes is to screw people over and make them spend way more than they otherwise would have in direct purchases, I don't think a more informed consumer in any way is in the best interest here.

Looking at the history though it seems you can expect a new chest every one to two months or so at patch days.

[Ol Nik.2518]

@"Inculpatus cedo.9234" said:You can find a list of when changes occurred in Black Lion Chests here: https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/historical@Daddicus.6128 -> This link is also helpful for predicting the contents of the upcoming BLC. It is not possible to make 100% accurate predictions, but there is a pattern in chest content rotations.

[Game of Bones.8975]

If you want a specific item, it’s probably cheaper to buy it outright.

[TheGrimm.5624]

@"Daddicus.6128" said:ArenaNet, can we PLEASE get advanced notice of when BL chests will change contents? Even more importantly, can we get advanced notice of what the second guaranteed item will be?

I really want to be able to intelligently decide whether to open chests now, or wait until the next "season". The statuettes are fine, since they never change. But, the second guaranteed item really matters. Some of them, I just have no interest in. Others are "must haves". Others, like the current one, are in the category "not very useful, but probably OK to buy; I might find uses for XYZ."

I think just getting a notice that chest will change in two weeks would go a long way so people know buy now or else and others have a need to stock up now kind of warning time frame.

[Linken.6345]

OP it will most likely change the 17th when new saga hits.

[MidnightX.6294]

wasnt it china who made gambling loot boxes law about it must show the % chances? could we check their loot boxes for the chances if we cant have them in western areas?

[Daddicus.6128]

@Tzarakiel.7490 said:People probably buy more keys if they don't know what the contents in the next set will be. There is little chance Anet would ever announce the changes in the future.

Then they should SAY that. Frankly, I doubt it's true at all. I'll bet sales go up once a new item is announced, not before.

[Daddicus.6128]

@Ayakaru.6583 said:It's called gambling for a reason, i suppose

This has nothing to do with gambling. I'm talking about the 2nd guaranteed item.

[Daddicus.6128]

That list you referenced shows no pattern whatsoever, other than festivals.

[Ayakaru.6583]

@Daddicus.6128 said:

@Ayakaru.6583 said:It's called gambling for a reason, i suppose

This has nothing to do with gambling. I'm talking about the 2nd guaranteed item.

when and how they change it, I mean.The entire chest concept is gambling.Even if an item is fixed in place, it's still part of the concept 'gambling'.Therefore, when and how they change, is also a gamble.you signed up for that when you bought the keys.

[Danikat.8537]

@MidnightX.6294 said:wasnt it china who made gambling loot boxes law about it must show the % chances? could we check their loot boxes for the chances if we cant have them in western areas?

We could, if someone has access to the Chinese version of the game, and if their black lion chests are the same. I've heard there's a lot of differences between the Chinese and Western versions - for example their version has a VIP system where you pay what's basically a subscription for discounts in the gem store, extra bag space and a marker next to your name to show everyone you do it, and the gem store sells legendary weapons and infusions, but other items which are in our gem store are only available in-game.

So I'm not sure black lion chests would match up across the two versions, they might have different odds or completely different items.

[MetalGirl.2370]

I'd rather have them give us notice that it will be removed from the game. As the game is rated 12 and yet has loads of gambling in it.

[PyrateSilly.4710]

We have a Saga coming on the 17th. It will change then.We also have the Halloween festival coming up ... it will change then too.Then there is the Wintersday festival ... guess what? it will change again.Then with the Lunar New Year it will change again.

Basically it will change with every festival and probably with every living story/saga update. It may even change in between all that too. Major updates are usually on a Tuesday so what till after 9am Seattle time on Tuesday, check the update notes to see what is changed. It's what I do to see if I want to open the chests I have.

[Daddicus.6128]

@Ayakaru.6583 said:

@Daddicus.6128 said:

@Ayakaru.6583 said:It's called gambling for a reason, i suppose

This has nothing to do with gambling. I'm talking about the 2nd guaranteed item.

when and how they change it, I mean.The entire chest concept is gambling.Even if an item is fixed in place, it's still part of the concept 'gambling'.Therefore, when and how they change, is also a gamble.you signed up for that when you bought the keys.

I don't care about the gambling aspect. It's no more gambling than getting critical hits.

But, it would be nice if they gave us a schedule ahead of changes.

[Daddicus.6128]

@PyrateSilly.4710 said:We have a Saga coming on the 17th. It will change then.We also have the Halloween festival coming up ... it will change then too.Then there is the Wintersday festival ... guess what? it will change again.Then with the Lunar New Year it will change again.

Basically it will change with every festival and probably with every living story/saga update. It may even change in between all that too. Major updates are usually on a Tuesday so what till after 9am Seattle time on Tuesday, check the update notes to see what is changed. It's what I do to see if I want to open the chests I have.

I know about those, but WHAT will it be? That's my question.

[mindcircus.1506]

@MetalGirl.2370 said:I'd rather have them give us notice that it will be removed from the game. As the game is rated 12 and yet has loads of gambling in it.

And yet you complained rather loudly when they removed the hairstyle kits.

[OutOfOrder.3719]

Well the festival grab bag monthly exclusive items can be predicted. For example, clearly the Gnashblade Halloween grab bag will be on the next installment on a Tuesday.

But the non-festival black lion chest guaranteed item really can’t be predicted. (It doesn’t bother me, but I can see why people would want something to look forward too)