Arannya.8324 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Out of 60 bl keys and to 2 golden keys spent I got 2 Keepsake skins worth 10g each, that's it... literally nothing. I'm close to a mental breakdown. Anyone else finding it impossible to get this darn skin or is my account just cursed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkeyspit.3965 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 You now have at least 60 Black Lion Statuettes.In roughly 6 months or so, the Vermilion Tail Feather skin will very likely become available for purchase for 60 BL statuettes.All you need to do now is wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arannya.8324 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 @Turkeyspit.3965 said:You now have at least 60 Black Lion Statuettes.In roughly 6 months or so, the Vermilion Tail Feather skin will very likely become available for purchase for 60 BL statuettes.All you need to do now is wait. I converted 50 into the 2nd golden key hoping it will drop :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randulf.7614 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Some people got it quickly other spent many hundreds of keys. It's no different to a legendary style skin - it's going to be hard on the rngJust remember, the more keys players sink...the more Anet will claim justification for doing these gambling skins. If you are happy with that, then fine - eventually you will get it, but rng will do what rng does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witch of Doom.5739 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 RNG is RNG, no way around it. If you wait and there is demand, that skin will be in the gem shop or at the statuette vendor. Yes, I get you spent 50 of your statuettes -- consider it a painful lesson learned. Save those puppies for an end result that you actually want.The only way BLCs work in your favor is if you don't mind spending the money and would be happy with whatever you get. And I mean whatever. Fifty hair change kits, fifty crappy mat bags. The same goes for anything random such as mount skin unlocks. Don't do it unless you'd be content with ANY of the choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arannya.8324 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 Well I've been playing since launch and I am perfectly aware it's gambling but I never had this kind of bad luck before. I think I spent max. 30 keys struggling to unlock a skin in the past... 60 keys + 2 golden with zero good drops is getting a bit ridiculous really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witch of Doom.5739 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 @Arannya.8324 said:Well I've been playing since launch and I am perfectly aware it's gambling but I never had this kind of bad luck before. I think I spent max. 30 keys struggling to unlock a skin in the past... 60 keys + 2 golden with zero good drops is getting a bit ridiculous really...Yes, I know you get it. Sometimes I have a streak of good luck and sometimes a streak of bad. Did I say bad? I meant horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solanum.6983 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 It's gambling, That's the chance you take. I got it on my first Key which was very lucky but there's also been times where i wanted something in the boxes and never did even using many Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkeyspit.3965 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 @Arannya.8324 said:Well I've been playing since launch and I am perfectly aware it's gambling but I never had this kind of bad luck before. I think I spent max. 30 keys struggling to unlock a skin in the past... 60 keys + 2 golden with zero good drops is getting a bit ridiculous really...That is unfortunately the very definition of gambling.I remember when the Infernal Horror Springer skin was released, I wasn't too excited as I pretty much never use a Springer except on a meta even boss or bounty, but as it was a 2000 gem skin, those are the types of things I save up my keys for..and don't you know I got it on the first try.I only have it equipped on one character, and he only brings it out for the Pinata event (he is parked in Amnoon), but I do think it looks awesome, and I'm grateful I was lucky to get it. Contrast that to back in January when they had that BL Exclusive Skin pack in the BL chests, and I threw at least 30 keys at it, and got back little for my trouble.It's why I refuse to spend resources (gold/gems) in getting keys. I'll do the weekly key run, as it is profitable other areas (I make/save several gold from all the T1-T4 mats and trophies you get) and save my keys for chests that look interesting. This is why it irks me that some items aren't sold on the store at the same time they are in the chest, but again, I'm confident in saying that roughly 6 months afterwards, those BL exclusive items become available for BL statuettes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holykitten.3064 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 I think I burned through 9 keys, got the glider and the tail feather. After the tenth key, I just bought the gems for the mount, which is what I wanted in the first place.RNG is a fickle mistress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omega.6801 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Well who would have guessed that RNG is random and gambling sometimes means losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rune Darkmoor.3269 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 The thing I find ironic about this is instead of gear you need to play the game at a high level being locked behind RNG it's arguably the best skins in the game... still can't decide if that's better or worse.Also, last 3 or 4 items I wanted that were BLC exclusive I didn't get cause of RNG. So now maybe I'll get one of them with statues when it finally comes up instead. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khisanth.2948 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 @"Arannya.8324" said:Well I've been playing since launch and I am perfectly aware it's gambling but I never had this kind of bad luck before. I think I spent max. 30 keys struggling to unlock a skin in the past... 60 keys + 2 golden with zero good drops is getting a bit ridiculous really...With enough people opening the chests someone is bound to be screwed. For example below is a simulated result of 1million people opening BLCs until they get an item with a 4% drop rate. Looking at the first 3 rows it doesn't actually look that bad. 70% get it within 30 keys.If we look down further 90% get it within 60 keys which looks decent enough ...but if you scroll all the way down to the last 3 people had to spend 330+ keys.Also worth noting is that if I simulate with 100k a maximum of 300 keys get used, with 1 million 380 keys, with 10 million 420 keys. Which seems to suggest if an infinite number of people opened these there will be the most unlucky person who uses an infinite number of keys and still not get it despite the average drop rate still being 4%. I wonder if statistics class would have been more interesting back when I was in school if they were framed in the context of loot drops ... Keys usednumber of peoplepercentage(out of 1million)1-930837430.8374%10-1923141523.1415%20-2915351915.3519%30-3910266910.2669%40-49681646.8164%50-59455294.5529%60-69304623.0462%70-79201052.0105%80-89133041.3304%90-9989670.8967%100-10958800.5880%110-11938270.3827%120-12926020.2602%130-13917220.1722%140-14911780.1178%150-1598090.0809%160-1694900.0490%170-1793110.0311%180-1892390.0239%190-1991340.0134%200-2091060.0106%210-219720.0072%220-229400.0040%230-239330.0033%240-249120.0012%250-259150.0015%260-26950.0005%270-27940.0004%280-28920.0002%290-29940.0004%300-30920.0002%310-31920.0002%330-33910.0001%340-34910.0001%370-37910.0001% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arannya.8324 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 @lokh.2695 said:Well who would have guessed that RNG is random and gambling sometimes means losing.woaw... /slowclap insert I must act patronising stating the obvious to sound superior never seen that before, nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arannya.8324 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 @Khisanth.2948 said:@"Arannya.8324" said:Well I've been playing since launch and I am perfectly aware it's gambling but I never had this kind of bad luck before. I think I spent max. 30 keys struggling to unlock a skin in the past... 60 keys + 2 golden with zero good drops is getting a bit ridiculous really...With enough people opening the chests someone is bound to be screwed. For example below is a simulated result of 1million people opening BLCs until they get an item with a 4% drop rate. Looking at the first 3 rows it doesn't actually look that bad. 70% get it within 30 keys.If we look down further 90% get it within 60 keys which looks decent enough ...but if you scroll all the way down to the last 3 people had to spend 330+ keys.Also worth noting is that if I simulate with 100k a maximum of 300 keys get used, with 1 million 380 keys, with 10 million 420 keys. Which seems to suggest if an infinite number of people opened these there will be the most unlucky person who uses an infinite number of keys and still not get it despite the average drop rate still being 4%. I wonder if statistics class would have been more interesting back when I was in school if they were framed in the context of loot drops ... Keys usednumber of peoplepercentage(out of 1million)1-930837430.8374%10-1923141523.1415%20-2915351915.3519%30-3910266910.2669%40-49681646.8164%50-59455294.5529%60-69304623.0462%70-79201052.0105%80-89133041.3304%90-9989670.8967%100-10958800.5880%110-11938270.3827%120-12926020.2602%130-13917220.1722%140-14911780.1178%150-1598090.0809%160-1694900.0490%170-1793110.0311%180-1892390.0239%190-1991340.0134%200-2091060.0106%210-219720.0072%220-229400.0040%230-239330.0033%240-249120.0012%250-259150.0015%260-26950.0005%270-27940.0004%280-28920.0002%290-29940.0004%300-30920.0002%310-31920.0002%330-33910.0001%340-34910.0001%370-37910.0001%that's pretty interesting, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Excursion.9752 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Feels bad I got mine on my 3rd key. But i have been on the other side of this with other items. RNG giveth and taketh away.It feels like there is an algorithm in place that senses how bad you want something then purposefully does not give it to you. :persevere:don your tin foil hats and perform your lucky jig before your open your BLC. But really good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mindcircus.1506 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 @"Turkeyspit.3965" said:It's why I refuse to spend resources (gold/gems) in getting keys. I'll do the weekly key run, as it is profitable other areas (I make/save several gold from all the T1-T4 mats and trophies you get) and save my keys for chests that look interesting.When you think a gold and a half for 20 minutes of your time is "profitable" you know you're playing too much WvW. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omega.6801 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 @Arannya.8324 said:@lokh.2695 said:Well who would have guessed that RNG is random and gambling sometimes means losing.woaw... /slowclap insert I must act patronising stating the obvious to sound superior never seen that before, nopeWhat did you expect? You gambled and lost then complained on the forums. We get these threads at least twice a week and the response remains the same. Gamble if you're fine with losing. Or even better, don't support lootboxes by gambling. At least don't come to the forums complaining about losing at gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aspirine.6852 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 If the rest of the stuff you get with the keys wasnt so horribly bad I would probably get more keys. But these stupid dyes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arannya.8324 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 @lokh.2695 said:@Arannya.8324 said:@lokh.2695 said:Well who would have guessed that RNG is random and gambling sometimes means losing.woaw... /slowclap insert I must act patronising stating the obvious to sound superior never seen that before, nopeWhat did you expect? You gambled and lost then complained on the forums. We get these threads at least twice a week and the response remains the same. Gamble if you're fine with losing. Or even better, don't support lootboxes by gambling. At least don't come to the forums complaining about losing at gambling.Get off your high horse mate :) In 14 years of GW I never had such bad luck trying to unlock an item, it was pure curiosity at what other people experienced, simple as that. Bye now :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arannya.8324 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 @Excursion.9752 said:Feels bad I got mine on my 3rd key. But i have been on the other side of this with other items. RNG giveth and taketh away.It feels like there is an algorithm in place that senses how bad you want something then purposefully does not give it to you. :persevere:don your tin foil hats and perform your lucky jig before your open your BLC. But really good luck!congrats & thank you :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arannya.8324 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 @aspirine.6852 said:If the rest of the stuff you get with the keys wasnt so horribly bad I would probably get more keys. But these stupid dyes...Yea I get what you mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyan.1593 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 For a very long time I got exclusive skins quite fast. But that stopped some months ago. Now often I need to use a huge amount of keys.I have a feeling that drop rates were lowered, however I can't prove that.Then again this skin is quite extravagant. It doesn't surprise me that in general it doesn't drop fast. BTW: NEVER buy golden keys with statuettes. NEVER. Hoard them until you get something unique for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkeyspit.3965 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 @Clyan.1593 said:I have a feeling that drop rates were lowered, however I can't prove that. Unlikely, but I'm convinced that Onyxia deep breathes more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islyn.8019 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 @Arannya.8324 said:Out of 60 bl keys and to 2 golden keys spent I got 2 Keepsake skins worth 10g each, that's it... literally nothing. I'm close to a mental breakdown. Anyone else finding it impossible to get this darn skin or is my account just cursed?I am annoyed; I got it in the first 5 keys and would GIVE it to you if I could. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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